Sunday 06/21/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

Oakland at San Diego

Oakland is 10-4 UNDER off a win ans they are 16-7 UNDER when Dallas Braden starts on grass. The A's are 8-3 UNDER their last 11 Sunday games and they are 6-1 UNDER in Game 3 of a series. San Diego starter Kevin Correia has a 13-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last starts. The Padres are 11-5-1 UNDER their last 17 Interleague home games and they are 4-1 UNDER in Game 3 of series. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Correia vs. Braden)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Jordan

Pittsburgh at COLORADO

Won’t get long-winded on this one, we simply look inside the numbers with this one:

Pittsburgh’s Paul Maholm has seen seven of nine road starts soar past the number.

The left-hander has a road ERA of 5.77 and now faces a Rockies team that has won 15 of 16 after yesterday’s dramatic walk-off victory.

Colorado’s Jorge De La Rosa has yet to win a game inside Coors Field, as he’s sporting a 0-5 mark there.

His ERA of 8.28 at home tells me that he’s leaving too many out over the zone, and he’s making way too many mistakes.

Playing the numbers with these two hurlers … go high with this one.

1♦ Pirates/Rockies OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Frank Jordan

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

This is the game of the day as this pits two of the best young starting pitchers as Gallardo and Verlander each 7-3 go head to head in Detroit. Look for Verlander who started slow out of the gate to continue his red hot streak and bring home the win on Sunday for the Tigers. Play Detroit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

St. Louis at Kansas City
Play Kansas City

The Royals start Gil Meche and he has an ERA of 0.41 in his last 3 starts. Wainwright starts for the Cards and his ERA is a decent 3.15 in his last 3 starts. Play the Royals at -105.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Fisher

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

I have Verlander at -155. Seems like Vegas is giving Verlander no respect for pitching great over last couple of weeks. Look for the "V" man to keep Brewers fast ball hitters off balanced with some nasty sliders! 3 STAR Detroit


New York Yankees vs. Florida Marlins
Play: New York Yankees

CC TRAIN has looked good of late only to ahve bullpen collapse in a few of his outings. CC handles Florida pretty well. I will go with history here. Take the CC TRain. Yanks 9 Marlins 4 4 STAR

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett

Milwaukee at DETROIT -130

G-Man now 4-1 the last 5 days, and 125-99-4 long-term with my Bonus Plays.

How about a good old-fashioned pitcher's duel Sunday at Comerica Park.

Milwaukee's been playing them HIGH the last week, but not today, as they face Justin Verlander who has been as tough as they come in his home park this year.

Verlander has gone 3-0 at home this season, and his ERA is a microscopic 0.82. All 5 of his home starts have stayed UNDER the posted total, and this one will as well.

Milwaukee will counter with the steady Yovani Gallardo who is now 7-3 for the year, and sports a 2.93 season ERA.

G-Man just gets the feeling that after the recent slugfests, Sunday's game shapes up to be a game in which the hurlers dominate.

Go with the UNDER in the series finale.

3? UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

Milwaukee at DETROIT -130

For Sunday’s Bonus Play, we’ll take the Tigers and Justin Verlander over Milwaukee in the finale of an interleague series in Motown.

Simply put, I’m banking on a big time bounce-back effort from Verlander, whose string of nine straight magnificent starts came to a crashing halt in Tuesday’s 11-2 loss at St. Louis. Verlander gave up four runs before getting out of the first inning and finished allowing five runs in just four innings of work. Considering the hard-throwing right-hander had allowed a total of eight runs in his previous nine starts covering 65 1/3 innings, nobody could’ve seen Tuesday’s implosion coming (least of all myself, as I backed Verlander in the contest).

Today, though, Verlander is back at home, where in five starts this season, he’s allowed a grand total of five runs (only three earned) in 33 innings, which equates to a 0.82 ERA. In those 33 innings, he’s yielded just 18 hits and 13 walks while striking out 43. For the season now, Verlander has an astounding 110-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Compare that with the ratio for Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo. I love Gallardo – have said so on numerous occasions this year – and his 85 Ks against 38 walks in 83 innings is hardly awful … but it’s not 110-27 like Verlander! Also, while Verlander had pitched at least six innings in nine straight starts prior to Tuesday in St. Louis, Gallardo has gone past 5 1/3 innings just twice in his last seven contests. The reason is that he’s walking too many hitters and driving up his pitch count. In fact, Gallardo threw 105 and 116 pitches in his last two outings, and lasted just five innings in each.

Bottom line: With these two pitchers on the mound, this figures to be a very low-scoring contest … at least for the first five innings. But when Gallardo inevitably departs early, I see the Tigers – who have won three straight while exploding for 25 runs – scratching out a few runs against the Brewers’ pen, and a few should be all they need with Verlander back on his game. Detroit’s the play.

5? DETROIT

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dominic Fazzini

Milwaukee at DETROIT

Justin Verlander has rebounded from a poor 2008 season, and has re-established himself as one of the top young right-handers in the American League. The Tigers right-hander leads the AL in strikeouts (110) and has allowed more than three earned runs in a game just once in his last 10 starts.

That lone poor outing came in his last start, when he allowed five runs on eight hits in four innings Tuesday against the Cardinals, in part because the St. Louis heat and humidity took its toll on Verlander (7-3, 3.39 ERA). But now the Tigers ace is back in Detroit, where he has been nearly untouchable.

Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA at Comerica Park, and he has been nearly as good in day games at 2-0, 1.42. And it was facing the Brewers at Comerica where Verlander had his finest moment as a big-leaguer, throwing a no-hitter and striking out 12 on June 12, 2007.

Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo (7-3, 2.93) also has been solid this year, and has been sharp in day games (2-1, 0.84). The 23-year-old right-hander has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last five starts.

With both pitchers on top of their game, runs will be hard to come by today at Comerica. Go with the under.

4♦ UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jake Timlin

Bouncing back from last night’s loss I like the Twins at home today.

Winners of 15 of their last 21 games at home and 8 of 11 against the NL this year Minnesota is the easy call here even with Perkins struggling on the year as it’s not like Houston will have any sort of advantage on the mound.

Wally Rodriguez will counter with his 7.88 ERA in his last three games and with the Astros still struggling with only two wins over their last five games.

So, even with last night’s loss the Twins are a solid choice thanks to being at home and still dominating Interleague play.

1♦ Minnesota Twins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Maxwell

Atlanta +115 at BOSTON

Delivered second straight FREE winner Saturday night with the Cardinals getting the runline winner against the Royals for some nice plus-money. Today we've got another comp winner for you with the Braves on the road in Boston.

Good spot to score some plus-money here today as we go with the Braves and young starter Jair Jurrjens (5-5, 2.89 ERA) against the Red Sox.

Jurrjens is the kind of pitcher that can keep the Boston lineup off-balance. He has been solid all season, allowing two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. The problem is sometimes the Braves' offense doesn't show up for him.

In Jurrjens' lone start against an American League team this season he held the Blue Jays to two runs in six innings and the Braves got a 10-2 victory. He's got a 2.38 ERA on the road this season and you'll see him come out pumped up today and deliver a gem against the Red Sox.

These two teams have split the first two games in this series, with Boston getting Saturday’s win 3-0 behind the pitching of Josh Beckett. Even with the loss, the Braves are 11-5 in their last 16 games against teams with winning records, and they are also on runs of 4-1 on Sundays and 4-1 in interleague play against teams with winning records. They are also 4-0 in the last four outings for Jurrjens against American League teams.

On the mound for the Red Sox is veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (9-3, 4.39 ERA). Wakefield seems to always have post a decent record but his ERA is always high. He gives up runs but his offense always seems to help him out. He's allowed three runs or more in six of his last nine outings.

Wakefield is 3-4 in his career against the Braves with a 5.06 ERA. They know what he's coming with and they will hit it today.

Play Atlanta today as the Braves win this one on the road with Jurrjens on the hill.

2♦ ATLANTA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Weston

Today's Selection:

Tough loss yesterday as the Mets can’t get it done. That’s fine as we’re coming through with a solid win as we’re taking the Dodgers in Game 3 of this freeway series over the Angels.

The Dodgers come into this game having won 5 of their last 7 games and are 4-2 their last 6 games on the road. Over their last 17 games away form Chavez Revine, the Dodgers are 12-5.

Consider, too, the Angels have had their share of struggles with John Lackey on the mound. In Lackey’s 7 starts this season he’s only 2-2, but the team is only 3-4 as he has a 6.10 ERA in that stretch. Also, he’s only had one home start this season and gave up 5 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings of work as the Halos lost 5-2 to the Mariners on May 29.

Tonight, Lackey will struggle again as the Dodgers get over.

3♦ DODGERS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MTi Sports

Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

Trivia Question: Since the start of the 2005 season, which is the most profitable team in the league in the third game of a three-game series when they won the first two?

Answer: The Washington Nationals. The Nats are 23-10 in this spot since 2005, despite being a significant underdog on the average.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michael Cannon

Atlanta at BOSTON -125

That’s three straight free winners after the Marlins get it done over the Yankees yesterday!

Take the Red Sox for the home win over the Braves.

I had the Red Sox on the run line as my best bet yesterday for my paying clients and they delivered the 3-0 win. I fully expect them to plate more runs than that today, but even if they don’t they should still get the win behind Tim Wakefield.

Wakefield has that knuckleball dancing this year to the tune of a 9-3 record. He’s 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts.

Atlanta will counter with Jair Jurrjens, who is 5-5 on the year with a 2.89 ERA. But the right-hander has lost his last three starts and has a 4.20 ERA over that span.

Take the Red Sox as they grab the home win.

2♦ BOSTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LARRY NESS

Texas Rangers @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Texas Rangers

I've won the last two nights with the Giants but will take the Rangers on Sunday. I really like San Fran's turnaround this year, as the Giants enter today's game 36-31 (23-12 at home), after back-to-back seasons of 90 (or more) losses. However, I can't trust them with Barry Zito on the mound, especially when the Rangers will counter with Kevin Millwood. Zito is becoming one of the biggest flops of the free agency era. After all his success in Oakland, he's gone 21-30 (4.83 ERA) these last two years in San Francisco (Giants were 27-38). Nothing much is new this year, as he'll enter this game 3-7 with a 4.72 ERA in 13 starts (team is 6-7). Millwood, Zito's pitching opponent in this game, can relate to the struggles of a free agent. He won 18 games for the Braves back in 1999 and did it again in 2002, which led to him "move on up!" However, he's never found anywhere near the type of success he had in Atlanta, whether it's been in Philly, Cleveland or now in Texas. However, he's having a terrific 2009 season and deserves even better than his 7-4 mark in 14 starts (Rangers are just 8-6). Milwood's ERA is down to 2.62 on the year, after he's allowed just three ERs over his last four starts (1.01 ERA). Despite the fact that Zito is 17-5 (3.76 ERA) in his career vs the Rangers, I consider that "old news" and will take Millwood and the Rangers in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drew Gordon

Texas at SAN FRANCISCO +125

Now on a 19-6 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Rays over the Mets 3-1 last night (Part of my 3-0 Sweep). For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Texas/San Francisco match-up.

I've had my fair share of negative things to say about Barry Zito, however, I know a good spot when I see one, and this is a very good spot for the soft-throwing lefty. Yes, he's coming off an awful effort against a red-hot Angels offense in his last one, but rest-assured, if ever he's going to bounce back, it'll be today at home against a familiar foe. Note, Zito is 17-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 30 career starts vs the Rangers, although he's never faced them as a member of the Giants.

Herein lies the problem for the Rangers, as despite starting their ace, Kevin Millwood, they are having real issues against lefties of late, especially on the road, where they average just 4.0 run per game against them. Texas is batting just .169 against southpaws over their last 10 games, and it won't get any easier against Zito at AT&T Park, where he's been considerably better this season.

As mentioned, Kevin Millwood gets the nod in this one, and there's no doubt he's been red-hot of late. I'm not going to sit here and bad mouth Millwood, as you can't argue with his numbers over his last 3 starts (3-0, 0.47 ERA), BUT before you go jumping on Texas' bandwagon, consider: A. His ERA is more than a run higher on the road (3.32 away vs. 2.08 at home). And B. The Giants are no slouch at AT&T Park, going 23-12 there. Not only that, but as I said before, take away Zito's last home start, and he's been downright nasty at home.

Bottom line, look for the Giants to break out the brooms this afternoon. Not impressed by this Rangers offense lately, and the fact they have to face a motivated Zito coming off a tough loss is the last thing they need. In the end, Millwood has been great, but the Giants get the best of him and Rangers in this one.

Take San Francisco behind Zito over Texas and Millwood in this MLB match up.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Craig Davis

Today's Bonus Play is on the Texas Rangers (with Millwood) over the Giants. After last night's extra inning affair, Kevin Millwood is more than anxious to get out there and shut down a team that clearly isn't scoring runs like they should. Millwood might be the hottest pitcher in baseball right now, winning his last three starts by posting an ERA of (get this) 0.42 and a WHIP of 1.06. Those last three starts have seen him go into the 8th inning, allowing 1, 0, and 0 earned runs in those games, striking out 12 and allowing just one batter in three games to go deep. Texas clearly has the offense to get to Barry Zito early, and I'm not sure if you've watched Zito much this year, but he's not even hitting 88 on the radar gun and when you face a lineup that crushes left-handed pitching, the combination is clearly in our favor. Bonus Play of the day on the Texas Rangers over San Francisco.

2? TEXAS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VEGAS EXPERTS

St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals

The Royals send Gil Meche to the mound this afternoon as he looks to build off two very impressive outings where he did not yield a single run over 16 innings of work. KC won those two games by a combined score of 14-0 and we look for them to ride Meche's arm one more time here as the Cardinals have gone just 2-6 on Sundays this year and are 0-2 thus far this season when coming off back-to-back wins by four runs or more.

Play on: Kansas City

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR TIPS

NY YANKEES vs. FLORIDA MARLINS

Alex Rodriguez is expected to return to the lineup today after a two-day break after batting .145 (8 for 55) in June. New York (38-30) will start ace CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.67 ERA), who looks to continue his success against the NL when he takes on the Marlins (34-36), the only team in the majors he has never faced. Sabathia is 15-2 with a 1.95 ERA in his last 23 outings versus NL clubs.The left-hander improved to 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA in his last 23 interleague starts Tuesday by allowing three runs over 7 2/3 innings in a 5-3 win over Washington. New York lost for the third time in four games Saturday as Florida starter Josh Johnson allowed one run over seven innings.The Yankees will go up against a starter they have never faced for the sixth straight game Sunday when they get their first look at Chris Volstad (4-7, 4.75), who has posted a 7.66 ERA in losing four straight starts.Volstad made his first career interleague start Tuesday at Boston and was tagged for eight runs over a season-low 3 2/3 innings in an 8-2 loss.The 22-year-old right-hander had lasted at least five innings in his previous 10 starts. CC will give the Yankees a good chnace to get back on track but the Yankee backs will continue to have problems facing another pitcher they have not seen before.

TAKE UNDER 8 1/2 runs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Paul Leiner

25* Over 8.5 Hou/Minn

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamehunter

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2009 Record: 282-271, +57.1874 Stargells
Saturday: 5-4, +1.5775 units

Happy Father's Day to all the fathers out there. I hope you have a special day. Don't forget to call your father today and tell him you love them and for those whose fathers are no longer with us, God Bless and take a few minutes to reflect back and reminisce about some of your favorite memories.

My family surprised me with box seats in the 4th row to today's Mets' game.Should be a special day for me despite the huge threat of rain.

Enjoy the day Gentlemen!


PITTSBURGH +132 (1.5 UNITS)

TORONTO -119 (2 UNITS)

UNDER TB/METS 9 RUNS (even) (1.5 UNITS)*

PHILADELPHIA -1.5 RUNS (+131) (1.75 UNITS)

UNDER MILW/DET 1st 5 inns ??? RUNS (???) (1.5 UNITS)**

ATLANTA +121 (1.5 UNITS)

KANSAS CITY -106 (1.75 UNITS)

CLEVELAND +146 (1.5 UNITS)

TEXAS -127 (1.5 UNITS)

UNDER STL/KC 8.5 RUNS (-101) (1.25 UNITS)

HOUSTON +115 (1.25 UNITS)

UNDER OAKLAND/SD 7.5 RUNS (-115) (2 UNITS)