MARC LAWRENCE
GAME: Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals Jun 14, 2009 2:10PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Cincinnati w/Cueto vs Bannister
Note: The Reds and Royals conclude their three game series today when Johnny Cueto takes on Brian Bannister in Kansas City. Cueto enters today's fray with wins in six of his last seven road starts and is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in his road career team starts. On the flip side, Bannister is in poor current form at 0-3 with a 9.93 ERA in his last three starts. Back the better arm and the better team here today. Back the Reds.
We recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati with Cueto versus Bannister.
GAME: Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals Jun 14, 2009 2:10PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Cincinnati w/Cueto vs Bannister
Note: The Reds and Royals conclude their three game series today when Johnny Cueto takes on Brian Bannister in Kansas City. Cueto enters today's fray with wins in six of his last seven road starts and is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in his road career team starts. On the flip side, Bannister is in poor current form at 0-3 with a 9.93 ERA in his last three starts. Back the better arm and the better team here today. Back the Reds.
We recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati with Cueto versus Bannister.
Cajun Sports
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs (MLB) - Jun 14, 2009 2:20 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -127 Chicago Cubs
The Cubs host the Twins on Sunday afternoon for the third and final game in their three-game interleague matchup. The Twins are looking for the sweep having won both of the previous two games; we used the Twins in game one of this series as a late phone selection winner on Friday. The Cubs are not only trying to avoid the sweep they are trying to stay above .500 on the season if they fail it will be the first time since the first week of the 2008 season that the Cubs have been below .500. The Twins will send Scott Baker to the bump with his 4-6 W/L record and ERA of 5.59 he will be seeking his third victory in a row. In his last two outings he has been given unbelievable run support getting ten runs in each trip to the bump. On Tuesday he allowed the A’s three runs on four hits over eight innings of work in a 10 to 5 win. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projects Baker will struggle here and not find the going quite so easy. If we combine his Pitcher Rating with our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index for Minnesota we see that they will not be giving him that type of run support in this contest and they will not get the sweep of the Cubs on Sunday at Wrigley Field. In an effort to avoid the sweep the Cubs will send their most consistent starter to the hill in Ted Lilly who has a record of 7-4 W/L and an ERA of 3.00 on the season. The left-hander spent seven seasons in the American League facing the Twins six times with a record of 3-1 W/L and an ERA of 3.52. The Cubs have struggled at the plate recently scoring a total of six runs during a four-game losing streak which will need to change if they are to have success today. Although Lilly doesn’t need much run support going 6 2/3 innings giving up no runs in Tuesday’s 7 to 1 win over Houston and has an ERA of 0.87 in his last three outings. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projects a quality start for the leftie in today’s outing and our TPR Index signals a Cubs win over the Twins by 2.4 runs on Sunday. A check of the database shows the Twins to be in a negative situation that tells us to Play Against AL teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. This system has posted a record of 61-29 W/L for +32.7 units over the last five seasons and has already won four five times this season for a profit of +3.3 units. We also note that the Twins are 13-30 W/L for -18.1 units when playing on the road versus left-handed starters the last two seasons. The combination of strong fundamental and technical support we will back the host at Wrigley on Sunday as the Cubs avoid the sweep and stay above .500 on the year.
Graded Selection: 2* Chicago Cubs 4 Minnesota Twins 1
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs (MLB) - Jun 14, 2009 2:20 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -127 Chicago Cubs
The Cubs host the Twins on Sunday afternoon for the third and final game in their three-game interleague matchup. The Twins are looking for the sweep having won both of the previous two games; we used the Twins in game one of this series as a late phone selection winner on Friday. The Cubs are not only trying to avoid the sweep they are trying to stay above .500 on the season if they fail it will be the first time since the first week of the 2008 season that the Cubs have been below .500. The Twins will send Scott Baker to the bump with his 4-6 W/L record and ERA of 5.59 he will be seeking his third victory in a row. In his last two outings he has been given unbelievable run support getting ten runs in each trip to the bump. On Tuesday he allowed the A’s three runs on four hits over eight innings of work in a 10 to 5 win. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projects Baker will struggle here and not find the going quite so easy. If we combine his Pitcher Rating with our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index for Minnesota we see that they will not be giving him that type of run support in this contest and they will not get the sweep of the Cubs on Sunday at Wrigley Field. In an effort to avoid the sweep the Cubs will send their most consistent starter to the hill in Ted Lilly who has a record of 7-4 W/L and an ERA of 3.00 on the season. The left-hander spent seven seasons in the American League facing the Twins six times with a record of 3-1 W/L and an ERA of 3.52. The Cubs have struggled at the plate recently scoring a total of six runs during a four-game losing streak which will need to change if they are to have success today. Although Lilly doesn’t need much run support going 6 2/3 innings giving up no runs in Tuesday’s 7 to 1 win over Houston and has an ERA of 0.87 in his last three outings. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projects a quality start for the leftie in today’s outing and our TPR Index signals a Cubs win over the Twins by 2.4 runs on Sunday. A check of the database shows the Twins to be in a negative situation that tells us to Play Against AL teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. This system has posted a record of 61-29 W/L for +32.7 units over the last five seasons and has already won four five times this season for a profit of +3.3 units. We also note that the Twins are 13-30 W/L for -18.1 units when playing on the road versus left-handed starters the last two seasons. The combination of strong fundamental and technical support we will back the host at Wrigley on Sunday as the Cubs avoid the sweep and stay above .500 on the year.
Graded Selection: 2* Chicago Cubs 4 Minnesota Twins 1
Tom Freese
MLB | Jun 14
Oakland Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Total
7½ un-110
San Francisco is 16-5-1 UNDER their last 22 games and they are 52-25-4 UNDER vs. AL West teams. The Giants are 8-2-2 UNDER their last 12 games overall and they are 4-1 UNDER in the last 5 starts made by Matt Cain. Oakland is 7-0-1 UNDER their last 8 games as underdogs and they are 15-5-1 UNDER their last 21 games overall. The Athletics are 10-4 UNDER vs. righty starters and they are 21-7-1 UNDER at San Francisco. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
MLB | Jun 14
Oakland Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Total
7½ un-110
San Francisco is 16-5-1 UNDER their last 22 games and they are 52-25-4 UNDER vs. AL West teams. The Giants are 8-2-2 UNDER their last 12 games overall and they are 4-1 UNDER in the last 5 starts made by Matt Cain. Oakland is 7-0-1 UNDER their last 8 games as underdogs and they are 15-5-1 UNDER their last 21 games overall. The Athletics are 10-4 UNDER vs. righty starters and they are 21-7-1 UNDER at San Francisco. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play on: Atlanta (Lowe) over Baltimore
Love RHP Derek Lowe in this spot. One of the keys in winning at Camden Yards is keeping the ball down in the strike zone. Lowe has a super sinker and slider and should be up to the task against the faltering Birds. Atlanta is 8-1 last nine games in this series, while going 6-1 at Camden Yards. The Orioles are 11-45 on Sunday's and 17-45 in game #3 of a series. Finally, the Birds are 28-57 as an underdog in Inter-League play.
Play on: Atlanta (Lowe) over Baltimore
Love RHP Derek Lowe in this spot. One of the keys in winning at Camden Yards is keeping the ball down in the strike zone. Lowe has a super sinker and slider and should be up to the task against the faltering Birds. Atlanta is 8-1 last nine games in this series, while going 6-1 at Camden Yards. The Orioles are 11-45 on Sunday's and 17-45 in game #3 of a series. Finally, the Birds are 28-57 as an underdog in Inter-League play.
Jim Feist
06/14 10:35 AM PT / 1:35 PM ET
MLB (963) BOSTON RED SOX at (964) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Take: (964) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Bonus Play)
Reason: A little surprised to find the defending world champion Phillies as a small home dog here. Especially when you consider the Red Sox lose their DH for this contest. The Phils are back in first place and have the second best run differential in the NL (+39). The Phillies also lead the NL in Home Runs with 86 and are led by Raul Ibanez (21) and Ryan Howard (19). J.A Happ has been very good for the Phils in both the starter and relief roll with a 4-0 record and 2.98 era. Josh Beckett starts for the Red Sox and he's having a fine season at 7-2 with a 3.77 era. Still, we have a first place team, at home with a batting advantage and a very consistent pitcher on the mound. We'll take the Phillies here as a small home dog and the good value they bring.
06/14 10:35 AM PT / 1:35 PM ET
MLB (963) BOSTON RED SOX at (964) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Take: (964) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Bonus Play)
Reason: A little surprised to find the defending world champion Phillies as a small home dog here. Especially when you consider the Red Sox lose their DH for this contest. The Phils are back in first place and have the second best run differential in the NL (+39). The Phillies also lead the NL in Home Runs with 86 and are led by Raul Ibanez (21) and Ryan Howard (19). J.A Happ has been very good for the Phils in both the starter and relief roll with a 4-0 record and 2.98 era. Josh Beckett starts for the Red Sox and he's having a fine season at 7-2 with a 3.77 era. Still, we have a first place team, at home with a batting advantage and a very consistent pitcher on the mound. We'll take the Phillies here as a small home dog and the good value they bring.
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers Jun 14 2009 3:05PM
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Reason: I'm playing the Rangers on Sunday. I did not agree with the linesmaker when I saw the high price on Chad Billingsley in this matchup. Sure, he's a fine young pitcher. But he's in the inferior National League, and he gets to play his home games in a great pitcher's park. In Interleague play, Billingsley has a pedestrian ERA of 4.14, and a disappointing WHIP of 1.55. The AL really has been that much better than the NL in recent years. Today, Billingsley isn't just facing an AL team, he's facing a division leader that plays in a good hitter's park. The closest NL comparison, if you will, would be Coors Field. Billingsley's lifetime ERA in Coors Field is 6.87! That's the guy laying the big price?! Derek Holland of Texas is in a "first look lefty" spot that I like to exploit. It can be tough for opponents to deal with a lefty the first time they see him. I'll gladly take this big return with a strong home team (20-11 entering the weekend) against a visitor that hasn't set the world on fire outside of its division (14-12 when not playing the NL West entering the weekend). The intense heat in an afternoon start will also magnify home field advantage. The Rangers plus the price is the play. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers Jun 14 2009 3:05PM
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Reason: I'm playing the Rangers on Sunday. I did not agree with the linesmaker when I saw the high price on Chad Billingsley in this matchup. Sure, he's a fine young pitcher. But he's in the inferior National League, and he gets to play his home games in a great pitcher's park. In Interleague play, Billingsley has a pedestrian ERA of 4.14, and a disappointing WHIP of 1.55. The AL really has been that much better than the NL in recent years. Today, Billingsley isn't just facing an AL team, he's facing a division leader that plays in a good hitter's park. The closest NL comparison, if you will, would be Coors Field. Billingsley's lifetime ERA in Coors Field is 6.87! That's the guy laying the big price?! Derek Holland of Texas is in a "first look lefty" spot that I like to exploit. It can be tough for opponents to deal with a lefty the first time they see him. I'll gladly take this big return with a strong home team (20-11 entering the weekend) against a visitor that hasn't set the world on fire outside of its division (14-12 when not playing the NL West entering the weekend). The intense heat in an afternoon start will also magnify home field advantage. The Rangers plus the price is the play. Thanks! GL! Scott.
JEFF BENTON
The Mets and Yankees have a lot of money tied up in pitchers Johan Santana and A.J. Burnett, but only one of those acquisitions has looked like a sound investment. While Santana (8-3, 2.39 ERA) has continued his stature as one of baseball’s best hurlers since leaving the Twins, Burnett has seemed a little overwhelmed by the bright lights of New York in his first season in the Bron
Burnett is a mediocre 4-3 with a 4.89 ERA in his first 12 starts with the Yankees, and is coming off his worst start of the season, when he allowed five runs (three earned) on five hits and five walks in 2 2/3 innings against the rival Red Sox.
Burnett is familiar with pitching against the Mets, too, from his seven years with the Marlins. However, he hasn’t fared too well against them, compiling a 2-6 record with a 3.83 ERA in 16 career starts. Santana, on the other hand, is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Bronx Bombers, including 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA at the old Yankee Stadium.
How those numbers translate to the new ballpark remains to be seen, but I can’t imagine the results are going to be very different. Go with Santana and the Mets, who choked away a win in Friday’s series opener but bounced back yesterday and rolled to a 6-2 victory behind journeyman right-hander Fernando Nieve (if the Yanks couldn’t hit Nieve, they’re not going to hit Santana!).
(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)
3♦ N.Y. METS
The Mets and Yankees have a lot of money tied up in pitchers Johan Santana and A.J. Burnett, but only one of those acquisitions has looked like a sound investment. While Santana (8-3, 2.39 ERA) has continued his stature as one of baseball’s best hurlers since leaving the Twins, Burnett has seemed a little overwhelmed by the bright lights of New York in his first season in the Bron
Burnett is a mediocre 4-3 with a 4.89 ERA in his first 12 starts with the Yankees, and is coming off his worst start of the season, when he allowed five runs (three earned) on five hits and five walks in 2 2/3 innings against the rival Red Sox.
Burnett is familiar with pitching against the Mets, too, from his seven years with the Marlins. However, he hasn’t fared too well against them, compiling a 2-6 record with a 3.83 ERA in 16 career starts. Santana, on the other hand, is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Bronx Bombers, including 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA at the old Yankee Stadium.
How those numbers translate to the new ballpark remains to be seen, but I can’t imagine the results are going to be very different. Go with Santana and the Mets, who choked away a win in Friday’s series opener but bounced back yesterday and rolled to a 6-2 victory behind journeyman right-hander Fernando Nieve (if the Yanks couldn’t hit Nieve, they’re not going to hit Santana!).
(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)
3♦ N.Y. METS
MATT RIVERS
Mets plus 190 on Saturday!
For Sunday take those same Mets against their in-state rivals.
If I can get Johan Santana at this price against the slumping AJ Burnett than I am all for it! Throw out every other factor in the world and this still cannot be construed as a bad play.
Sure the Yankees are the healthier team of the two and probably right now the more talented team of the two with Arod and Teixeira leading the way but anytime you can get arguably thee single best pitcher on the planet and not have to lay anything then it is a total no-brainer.
I'm not saying that Burnett does not have great stuff and a huge upside but after the first few impressive starts to the season the guy has been mediocre at the very very best and that is being kind.
Santana has been brilliant all season long and if not for his defense destroying him a few times earlier in the season he would already have double digit wins. Even without Reyes and Delgado I can' t help but back Santana today as he still has studs in Wright and Beltran along with other quality players like Sheffield and Church that can wreak some major havoc for sure.
If Burnett matches Santana tonight, which he can do, then so be it. But Johan at this price is just too good to not take a stab on!
2♦ Mets
Mets plus 190 on Saturday!
For Sunday take those same Mets against their in-state rivals.
If I can get Johan Santana at this price against the slumping AJ Burnett than I am all for it! Throw out every other factor in the world and this still cannot be construed as a bad play.
Sure the Yankees are the healthier team of the two and probably right now the more talented team of the two with Arod and Teixeira leading the way but anytime you can get arguably thee single best pitcher on the planet and not have to lay anything then it is a total no-brainer.
I'm not saying that Burnett does not have great stuff and a huge upside but after the first few impressive starts to the season the guy has been mediocre at the very very best and that is being kind.
Santana has been brilliant all season long and if not for his defense destroying him a few times earlier in the season he would already have double digit wins. Even without Reyes and Delgado I can' t help but back Santana today as he still has studs in Wright and Beltran along with other quality players like Sheffield and Church that can wreak some major havoc for sure.
If Burnett matches Santana tonight, which he can do, then so be it. But Johan at this price is just too good to not take a stab on!
2♦ Mets
TONY WESTON
We’re coming at it again as we’re taking the Mets over the Yankees in the rubber game of this series.
The Mets come into this game sitting at 1-1 so far in this series over the Yanks, but could easily be looking at the 3-game sweep if not for Luis Castillo’s glove in Game 1 of this series.
After giving away Game 1, losing 9-8, the Mets came back with a solid 6-2 win Saturday. Including that win, the Mets are now 5-3 their last 8 against the Yankees.
For the Yanks, things have been tough lately as they’ve won just 1 of their last 5 games overall.
Keep in mind, too, the Mets have been extremely strong with today’s scheduled starter Johan Santana on the mound. The Mets have won 4 of his last 5 starts overall and have won 2 of his last 3 on the road.
Santana will be strong again as the Mets pick up another win with him on the mound. Pencil in Santana as your starting pitcher and take the Mets on the road in this one.
3♦ METS (on a 1♦ - 5♦ Scale)
We’re coming at it again as we’re taking the Mets over the Yankees in the rubber game of this series.
The Mets come into this game sitting at 1-1 so far in this series over the Yanks, but could easily be looking at the 3-game sweep if not for Luis Castillo’s glove in Game 1 of this series.
After giving away Game 1, losing 9-8, the Mets came back with a solid 6-2 win Saturday. Including that win, the Mets are now 5-3 their last 8 against the Yankees.
For the Yanks, things have been tough lately as they’ve won just 1 of their last 5 games overall.
Keep in mind, too, the Mets have been extremely strong with today’s scheduled starter Johan Santana on the mound. The Mets have won 4 of his last 5 starts overall and have won 2 of his last 3 on the road.
Santana will be strong again as the Mets pick up another win with him on the mound. Pencil in Santana as your starting pitcher and take the Mets on the road in this one.
3♦ METS (on a 1♦ - 5♦ Scale)
