al demarco
sunday's play
5 dime - boston celtics on the money line
television, and the nba's desire to maximize its viewing audience, has ultimately provided boston with its biggest break -- literally and figuratively, perhaps -- of the postseason. Entering the orlando series, the short-handed celtics were mentally, emotionally and physically drained after their grueling seven-game duel to near-death with chicago in the first round. Thus, it was no surprise they were beaten at home in game one by the magic and have been plagued by bouts of inconsistency throughout the series, including a collapse in the final seven minutes of game six on thursday.
Go back to game four of the chicago series. Since then, boston has played 10 games on an every other day basis. That's 10 games in 20 days for an aging team missing its best player in garnett and key reserve in powe. Plus, factor in all the overtimes endured in the series with the bulls, and that's even more floor time for the celtics in that 20-day stretch. But now, thanks to television, they got the benefit of an extra day's rest and the nighttime slot since kobe and the lakers were deemed the more attractive afternoon match-up. That will be key for the tired legs of paul pierce, rajon rondo and ray allen, not to mention the banged-up shoulder of kendrick perkins.
Rondo, allen and eddie house coming off the bench hold an overwhelming edge in talent versus their orlando counterparts. Pierce has more than held his own against rashard lewis in this series. And perkins, despite a bothersome shoulder injury, has played aggressive defense against dwight howard and been a key factor as boston has more than held its own on the boards in the series. In fact, the celtics outrebounded orlando in games five and six.
Homecourt advantage and experience come into play tonight. The celtics are 14-3 lifetime when hosting a game seven, and that includes three wins in the past year as they beat the bulls in the first round earlier this month and the hawks and cavaliers in last season's playoffs. On the other hand, the magic had an opportunity to wrestle control of this series in their last visit to boston, but blew a late lead in game five and allowed boston to steal a win.
Do i think the celtics can cover as a 3-point favorite today? Yes, in fact i do. But, it makes no sense to play them versus the spread when i can instead take them on the moneyline instead at around -145 or -150. Think of it this way: -145 or -150 is about my personal maximum for making a baseball wager; this is no different. You might recall i used that philosophy for backing the yankees on the road with c.c. Sabathia earlier this week instead of opting for new york as a run line release and it paid off with a win; same principle here. And with the bankroll i've accumulated thanks to the 18-5 roll, i can afford it.
