Soccer experiment

[quantumleap]

I'm going to try an experiment comparing different sportsbooks. I've noticed some sportsbooks offer different lines and shade the juice away from their "choice". I then take the better line for their choice at other books. If this is successful I'll divulge the books.

All picks for 1 unit unless stated otherwise.

England - EPL
Reading/Arsenal under 2 1/2 +122
Bolton/Middlesbrough over 2 1/2 +139

Spain - Primera Liga
Atletico Madrid -1/2 -165 over Betis Sevilla
Sevilla/UD Almeria under 2 1/2 +116

 

[rolltide]

a few years back, might have been this forum or perhaps another, a poster would try to find value in the "pinnacle lean". He would take a match that pinnacle was a 1/4 goal different in and seemed to do OK. I personally don't think pinny soccer lines are that sharp and would have preferred a "betcris lean" approach but with only having limited outs to bet at it's nothing I've researched too much

 

[chriscol]

it was done here, but i didnt really follow. results i remember were ok but not spectacular. bol anyway

 

[joeyfitzclick]

QL - I did this is in all sports, not just soccer, for about 3 months and lost my ass.

Just heads up.

 

[rolltide]

i think it can work, but not with Pinnacle. Like I said, their soccer odds compilers are nothing special. It's just unfortunate I cannot bet there anymore as they made enough mistakes to profit...even with joke limits on early lines

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks for the input guys.

I was one of those who used the "Pinnacle Lean" a couple years ago. My principle was to take the under when Pinnacle had 2.25 and everyone else had 2.5. The problem with that is Pinnacle adjusted their juice so it wasn't necessarily advantageous. I agree with rolltide, Pinnacle isn't necessarily a sharp soccer book.

The book I'm using as the "sharp" book is TheGreek. I've noticed that they have decidedly different lines than other books and those matches for today I have listed above. Sometimes I've noticed that TheGreek won't even list a match in a league where they list all the other matches. It makes me think they won't put out a weak line. I see they still haven't listed River Plate's match in the Argentinian league.

On the flip side, I took a look at Middlesbrough's matches to see if the over is indeed a good bet. They went under 2.5 in 15 out of their last 17 previous to today's under so perhaps this book's lean isn't all that good.

I'll try it out for a few weeks to see how it goes.

:toast:

 

[quantumleap]

Spain - Primera Liga
Sevilla/UD Almeria under 2 1/2 +116

Just as a point of reference, TheGreek had the under for Sevilla/Almeria at 3 -133 last night which lead me to believe they didn't want bets on the under. They have now adjusted their line for the under to be 2 1/2 +121 which is more in line with the other books.

 

[quantumleap]

France - Ligue 1
Metz +1 -110 over Auxerre

 

[quantumleap]

Argentina - Primera
Boca Juniors -1/2 -162 over Newell's
Gimnasia La Plata -1/2 +101 over Gimnasia Jujuy (2 units)

 

[quantumleap]

Reading 0, Arsenal 2 +1.22
Bolton 1, Middlesbrough 0 -1.00
Atletico Madrid 1, Betis Sevilla 3, -1.00
Sevilla 1, UD Almeria 4, -1.00
Metz 0, Auxerre 0, +0.91
Boca Juniors 2, Newell's 1, +0.62
Gimnasia La Plata 2, Gimnasia Jujuy 1, +2.02

Today: +1.77

As you can see, some of these bets were way off. I guess I'll have to develop a feel for why certain numbers are put up by TheGreek that are way off from other books.

More for Sunday.

 

[Taparosca]

Argentina - Primera
Boca Juniors -1/2 -162 over Newell's
Gimnasia La Plata -1/2 +101 over Gimnasia Jujuy (2 units)

Both winners!!! Congrats QL!!!

 

[quantumleap]

Both winners!!! Congrats QL!!!

Thanks TR.

:toast:

I will be taking River Plate under 2 1/2 on Sunday as well.

 

[Taparosca]

Thanks TR.

:toast:

I will be taking River Plate under 2 1/2 on Sunday as well.

GL buddy, excellent bet!!!!

 

[quantumleap]

Argentina - Primera
Rosario/River Plate under 2 1/2 -130 (2 units)
RP has gone under their last 10 matches. As discussed in Tapa Rosca's thread Rosario is not a big scoring threat either. RP did score 5 goals in their last match but they play Copa matches quite differently than league matches. RP has not been scored on in their last 6 league matches! I am going to mention this only once here and that is when TheGreek doesn't offer a match I'm going to put 2 units on that match. Sometimes it's difficult to determine whether it's the spread or the total that TheGreek doesn't like but in this case it's obvious.

San Lorenzo/Argentinos Juniors under 2 1/2 -130

Italy - Serie A
Cagliari/Empoli under 2 1/2 -140

Spain - Primera
Bilbao -1/2 +155 over Valencia

May be posting more later on Sunday when more lines come out for the weaker shops.

 

[quantumleap]

Norway - Tippeligaen
Rosenborg +246 over Valerenga (1/2 unit)
Rosenborg/Valerenga draw +242 (1/2 unit)

 

[quantumleap]

Rosario 2, River Plate 1, Loss, -2.00
I swear. This is about the 5th time in a row I've looked at a team on a streak and bet on the streak only to lose.

Argentinos Juniors 2, San Lorenzo 1, Loss, -1.00
Another 90th minute loss. I won one of those today but it sure seems like I lose more of these than I win.

Cagliari 2, Empoli 0, WINNER, +0.71

Bilbao 5, Valencia 1, WINNER, +1.55

Rosenborg 1, Valerenga 1, WINNER, +0.71

Today: -0.03
YTD: +1.74

I think I'll keep this going. I think I can fine-tune it to be profitable.

 

[Taparosca]

Rosario 2, River Plate 1, Loss, -2.00
I swear. This is about the 5th time in a row I've looked at a team on a streak and bet on the streak only to lose.

Argentinos Juniors 2, San Lorenzo 1, Loss, -1.00
Another 90th minute loss. I won one of those today but it sure seems like I lose more of these than I win.

Cagliari 2, Empoli 0, WINNER, +0.71

Bilbao 5, Valencia 1, WINNER, +1.55

Rosenborg 1, Valerenga 1, WINNER, +0.71

Today: -0.03
YTD: +1.74

I think I'll keep this going. I think I can fine-tune it to be profitable.

Rosario - River, it was an emotional game for Rosario, that kind of games, actually it was a great game to watch, the fans, the environment, everything, Rosario with one man less due to red card, one injured, and they still keep the win for their fans. Great game.

 

[quantumleap]

Rosario - River, it was an emotional game for Rosario, that kind of games, actually it was a great game to watch, the fans, the environment, everything, Rosario with one man less due to red card, one injured, and they still keep the win for their fans. Great game.

Thanks for the feedback TR.



I was thinking that this only went over by 1/2 goal. Not enough to get upset about. It's not like it was 5-1 or anything like that. It's just that it gets old following these streaks only to have them stop exactly when I start betting on them.

hno:

 

[quantumleap]

France - Ligue 2
Le Havre -1/2 1.68 over Sedan Ardennes

 

[quantumleap]

France - Ligue 2
Le Havre -1/2 1.68 over Sedan Ardennes

Le Havre 0, Sedan 0, Loss, -1.00

YTD: +0.74