Patriots partisans are deflating the deflation controversy by arguing that their impermissible deflation of the footballs wasn’t what allowed them to beat an overmatched Colts team. Perhaps. But a new statistical analysis reveals that if it weren’t for deflation of the footballs, the Patriots might not have even been playing a series of home playoff games as the top seed. Careful analytics reveal that suddenly in 2007, a strange and statistically impossible phenomena began to occur at Patriots games.
Sharp Football Analysis has a statistical analysis that backs up the conclusions of football legends Fran Tarkenton and Jerome Bettis: the Patriots’ success over the last decade is due in some (or large) part to cheating. This is bad news for the NFL and for fans of every team that has been on the losing end of Patriot schemes, particularly the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were denied multiple trips to the Super Bowl by the Patriots in AFC Championship games during the height of the first Patriot videotape cheating scandal.
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Sharp Football Analysis analysis looked at the rate of fumbles by the Patriots offense over the last decade. The analysis had a number of shocking conclusions. First, the Patriots fumble only at a rate of once every 187 offensive snaps. As Sharp’s puts it, this is literally off the charts. It is a statistical outlier right from a statistics textbook.
Sharp Football Analysis:One can CLEARLY SEE the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.The odds of such a statistical distribution were calculated at one in 16,233. That’s a comma, not a decimal. Sixteen thousand two hundred and thirty three to one.
Patriots partisans might crow — well, what good does deflating a football do? Simple. It creates angles on a football that didn’t exist when playing by the rules and allows a runner, passer, center, and, most importantly, a quarterback to better grip the ball. With the avoidance of turnovers being so central to winning football, a deflated football helps you win.
But it gets worse for Brady and the Patriots. Sharp Football Analysis was able to trace the emergence of this phenomena to a bright-line date: 2007. Starting in 2007, the Patriots suddenly began to hold onto the football at a statistical rate likely to occur 1 time in 16,233. A rational person might conclude this is the moment when someone on the Patriots cooked up the scheme to illegally deflate the ball:As you can see, the Patriots won their Super Bowls having a below average rate of fumbles lost given today’s average of 105 plays/game. But in 2007, something happened to propel them to a much better rate (you’ll remember, that just so happened to be the same year they went 16-0 in the regular season). But even looking at these numbers, its clear how insane the 187 number is: they are almost running 100 MORE plays without a single fumble as compared to the 2002-2006 period when they won 2 of their 3 Super Bowls.When you consider that the Patriots play in cold, messy weather much of the season, having an advantage that visiting teams do not have creates even further separation from the rest of the NFL on game day in New England. The Pats have performed like a domed team in the worst of conditions.
To further illustrate how these numbers are astonishing, the below graphics lay out clearly how far off the Patriots are from the rest of the league. Its evident to the eye how far removed they are from the norm. Whether we look at a histogram laying it out, where the Patriots and their 187 plays/fumble is far from the “bell shaped curve”:
Sharp Football Analysis answers the inevitable Patriots partisans:
Could the Patriots be so good that they just defy the numbers? As my friend theorized: Perhaps they’ve invented a revolutionary in-house way to protect the ball, or perhaps they’ve intentionally stocked their skill positions with players who don’t have a propensity to fumble. Or perhaps still, they call plays which intentionally result in a lower percentage of fumbles. Or maybe its just that they play with deflated footballs on offense. … But regardless of what, specifically, is causing these numbers, the fact remains: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.Unlike Barry Bonds and other baseball cheaters, Brady and Bill Belichick are certain to wind up in the Hall of Fame someday. But they’ll never be able to escape from the data that will follow them there.
[Update: in response to the comment below -- each team in the NFL uses their own chosen balls while on offense. Sometimes these balls even have the logo of the team on them. Thus, the advantage would NOT flow both ways.]
Any Pats fans dispute this yet?
Yeah. manterro thread. Poster MedicalMaryJ from Rhode Island:
"First of all, look at Pats fumbles lost last few years. 8th, 1st, 14th, 9th etc.
second off, the chart starts at 30 fumbles lost so it looks more obscure than it should be. If it started at zero, it would not look like such a statistical outlier.
Also you have to account for Pats hurry up offense and ability to move the chains as well as BB no tolerance for fumbling IE you get taken out immediately."
you can read what i said, or you can just throw out whatever you want.
for the millionth time: they were fined for where they taped the other teams signals from. it was stupid and they broke the rule at the time.
however, the average sports fan and most on here have no clue what spygate is or was about. ask 100 people in a sports bar. nobody knows. these dopes act like the patriots have spies and peepholes in the other teams locker rooms. they taped what 80000 people and hundreds of cameras could clearly see in the stadium. get over it.
if you think the pats are the only team screwing around with the footballs, you are naive.. the crux of the issue is, the ball is too damn big.
you ever handle a college ball ? its much smaller than a pro ball. make the ball a little smaller and nobody will try to make it so they can get a better grip on it.
i would bet my life that qb's have been doing this for many years. none of them will come out and say so, because they don't want their legacy's tarnished.
you ever handle a college ball ? its much smaller than a pro ball. make the ball a little smaller and nobody will try to make it so they can get a better grip on it.
i would bet my life that qb's have been doing this for many years. none of them will come out and say so, because they don't want their legacy's tarnished.
Ummmm ok. I'm trying to figure out why what you're saying means anything. So people don't understand what they did. They broke the rule and paid a healthy price. And people not knowing the details means what? It means nothing to the current case of cheating...just shows a pattern of behavior. Because people may not know the specifics of spygates has zero to do with them getting caught again.
They have a history of breaking rules and they did it again. Why is that so hard for pats fans to see?
Sharpton, Malik Shabaaz, Occupy Wall Street are arm in arm protesting outside Gillette. Holder and Lynch are sending in extra backup because the NFL report is due out next week. Foxboro PD is requesting National Guard backup when the report is finally made public....after all we know now that Brady and Belichick are guilty because the media has already given them a trial.
This will be the most watched Super Bowl in history. Brilliant if you ask me
Yep. That damn liberal media deflating footballs again. I think it was Chris Berman and Keith Olberman trying to frame the pats. It always amuses me to see people who live for the republican party and their"personal responsibility" platform ...place blame on everyone else but the people responsible.
The nfl didn't need this to get a huge numners rating on this game and they don't want this bullshit taking over the super bowl. Nobody is all of the sudden gonna tune in because of a deflated ball contravery. The world would be watching regardless
Slow down there big fella, this has nothing to do with politics. The tongue in cheek post was more a stab at rushing to judgement rather than any political statement, there is an entire poly forum for political views, lets keep an open mind.
Every media outlet, including Fox News has covered this and not in a positive light. You doth protest too much me thinks, no one said anything about liberal media, Republicans or Democrats for that matter.
Let me rephrase it: Lets wait until the final report comes out before we convict anyone......nothing political about it.
Final report? You mean by the nfl? I hope they use the same guy who took a month to find the elevator at Revel Casino. I really don't need another Goodell manufactured report. The balls were deflated and sane people know who waa behind it. I don't understand why people are making this so difficult. Brady likes the ball deflated and has his equipment people take care of it. The cover up is worse than the crime.
I was just commenting how people wanna always blame the media....as if over-blowing a story changes the facts.
Final report? You mean by the nfl? I hope they use the same guy who took a month to find the elevator at Revel Casino. I really don't need another Goodell manufactured report. The balls were deflated and sane people know who waa behind it. I don't understand why people are making this so difficult. Brady likes the ball deflated and has his equipment people take care of it. The cover up is worse than the crime.
I was just commenting how people wanna always blame the media....as if over-blowing a story changes the facts.
Actually I've said many times obama has been an average president while you cheered on iranian dictators to embarrass our country because of your hate for the president. So you see obama as a cheat but not bellichick or brady? Lmao...these patriot fans are more fucked up than penn st fans.
Face facts, your team cheats...it's in theri dna...it is who they are. Kinda like when you found out there is no santa claus huh?
Heads up for all you Brady fans, ESPN Classic is showing a repeat performance of "The Brady Six" at 6:30 tonight, a must see about the 6 qb's taken before him in the 2000 draft. Spoiler alert: It turns out well for him. Again, a must see, it shows how he cheated his entire life to get the starting job at NE. The "Bledsoe Incident" can never be proven but you know damn well he was knee deep in that shit, it is just the way he is. Lazy ass slob, just like Belichick, fuckers never prepare, just cheat their way through life. Tired of these cheaters. This dude makes Ryan Leaf look like a superstar.
