<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=5 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dcdcdc><TD align=middle>Date
</TD><TD align=middle>Title (click to view)</TD><TD align=middle>Studio</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Lifetime Gross / Theaters</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Opening / Theaters</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>12/21/05</TD><TD>Cheaper by the Dozen 2</TD><TD>Fox</TD><TD align=right>$82,571,173</TD><TD align=right>3,211</TD><TD align=right>$9,309,387</TD><TD align=right>3,175</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f4f4ff><TD align=right>6/17/05</TD><TD>The Perfect Man</TD><TD>Uni.</TD><TD align=right>$16,535,005</TD><TD align=right>2,090</TD><TD align=right>$5,300,980</TD><TD align=right>2,087</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>10/8/04</TD><TD>Raise Your Voice</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD align=right>$10,411,980</TD><TD align=right>2,521</TD><TD align=right>$4,022,693</TD><TD align=right>2,521</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f4f4ff><TD align=right>7/16/04</TD><TD>A Cinderella Story</TD><TD>WB</TD><TD align=right>$51,438,175</TD><TD align=right>2,625</TD><TD align=right>$13,623,350</TD><TD align=right>2,625</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>12/25/03</TD><TD>Cheaper by the Dozen</TD><TD>Fox</TD><TD align=right>$138,614,544</TD><TD align=right>3,307</TD><TD align=right>$27,557,647</TD><TD align=right>3,298</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f4f4ff><TD align=right>5/2/03</TD><TD>The Lizzie McGuire Movie</TD><TD>BV</TD><TD align=right>$42,734,455</TD><TD align=right>2,825</TD><TD align=right>$17,338,755</TD><TD align=right>2,825</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>3/14/03</TD><TD>Agent Cody Banks</TD><TD>MGM</TD><TD align=right>$47,938,330</TD><TD align=right>3,369</TD><TD align=right>$14,064,317</TD><TD align=right>3,369</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD align=middle>Title (click to view)</TD><TD align=middle>Studio</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Lifetime Gross / Theaters</TD><TD align=middle colSpan=2>Opening / Theaters</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>12/21/05</TD><TD>Cheaper by the Dozen 2</TD><TD>Fox</TD><TD align=right>$82,571,173</TD><TD align=right>3,211</TD><TD align=right>$9,309,387</TD><TD align=right>3,175</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f4f4ff><TD align=right>6/17/05</TD><TD>The Perfect Man</TD><TD>Uni.</TD><TD align=right>$16,535,005</TD><TD align=right>2,090</TD><TD align=right>$5,300,980</TD><TD align=right>2,087</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>10/8/04</TD><TD>Raise Your Voice</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD align=right>$10,411,980</TD><TD align=right>2,521</TD><TD align=right>$4,022,693</TD><TD align=right>2,521</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f4f4ff><TD align=right>7/16/04</TD><TD>A Cinderella Story</TD><TD>WB</TD><TD align=right>$51,438,175</TD><TD align=right>2,625</TD><TD align=right>$13,623,350</TD><TD align=right>2,625</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>12/25/03</TD><TD>Cheaper by the Dozen</TD><TD>Fox</TD><TD align=right>$138,614,544</TD><TD align=right>3,307</TD><TD align=right>$27,557,647</TD><TD align=right>3,298</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f4f4ff><TD align=right>5/2/03</TD><TD>The Lizzie McGuire Movie</TD><TD>BV</TD><TD align=right>$42,734,455</TD><TD align=right>2,825</TD><TD align=right>$17,338,755</TD><TD align=right>2,825</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=right>3/14/03</TD><TD>Agent Cody Banks</TD><TD>MGM</TD><TD align=right>$47,938,330</TD><TD align=right>3,369</TD><TD align=right>$14,064,317</TD><TD align=right>3,369</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Guys, remember that I'm just posting some basic info for you to use for your decisions. I don't know the first thing about how to bet movies and what to look for.
With that said, I would be surprised if Material Girls didn't go over $4m, but that's just my uneducated guess. Her three starring vehicles have grossed 5.3m (Perfect Man), 13.6 (Cinderella) and 17.3 (Lizzie McGuire). Pro-rated to the number of screens, 2 out of 3 would go over.
With that said, I would be surprised if Material Girls didn't go over $4m, but that's just my uneducated guess. Her three starring vehicles have grossed 5.3m (Perfect Man), 13.6 (Cinderella) and 17.3 (Lizzie McGuire). Pro-rated to the number of screens, 2 out of 3 would go over.
Guys, remember that I'm just posting some basic info for you to use for your decisions. I don't know the first thing about how to bet movies and what to look for.
With that said, I would be surprised if Material Girls didn't go over $4m, but that's just my uneducated guess. Her three starring vehicles have grossed 5.3m (Perfect Man), 13.6 (Cinderella) and 17.3 (Lizzie McGuire). Pro-rated to the number of screens, 2 out of 3 would go over.
With that said, I would be surprised if Material Girls didn't go over $4m, but that's just my uneducated guess. Her three starring vehicles have grossed 5.3m (Perfect Man), 13.6 (Cinderella) and 17.3 (Lizzie McGuire). Pro-rated to the number of screens, 2 out of 3 would go over.
kirkmuller said:
I'll bet people are looking at her last 3 movies. Cheaper 2 was bolstered by Steve Martin and that only did $3,000 per theater to open. Her 2 movies previous to that one did less than $3,000 per theater on opening weekend and that is what she would need to break $4.5mil with 1,500 theaters. Makes sense that people are betting the under.
Material Girls: Sure-Fire Box Office Flop
Material Girls will be a virtually sure-fire box office flop by movie standards. The question is how much of a flop will it be, for betting purposes. Long analysis below, Cliff Notes on bottom.
---
Background:
Hilary Duff stars in this movie, along with her lesser known sister Haylie. Duff's career has faded fast, going from a popular teen draw in Lizzie McGuire, to an average teen rom-com in Cinderella Story, to a string of flops afterwards.
The best comparison for this movie is the Duff solo vehicle, Raise Your Voice. After being in several moderately successful movies, and having a built-in teen fanbase from television and singing, Duff attempted to carry this movie centered around her music aspirations. It should have been her 8 Mile, and instead, flopped its way to a $4 million opening even though it was in more than 2,500 theaters. It carried a horrible opening PTA of less than $1,600, and ended up making only $10 mil total vs a $15 mil budget.
In her next attempt, producers tried to pair her with Heather Locklear in a PG rom-com for teens and families. This should have been a wider draw, with popular adult actors (pairing Locklear with Chris Noth of Sex and the City) expanding the audience. But this failed as well, opening to $5.4 mil in 2,087 theaters with a $2,540 PTA.
Other comparisons can be made to similar tweener movies which have failed, despite even more popular actresses. The billionaire Olsen twins, despite their enormous fanbase, flopped in New York Minute with a PTA under $2,000 and and opening of $5.96 mil due only to the very large 3,000 theater count (due to formerly high expectations).
July tweener movie Sleepover with Alexa Vega, of the enormously popular Spy Kids franchise, flopped to a similar sub-$1,900 PTA, opening to $4.17 mil in 2,200 theaters.
The formerly popular Lindsay Lohan flopped earlier this year as well in Just My Luck, with a $2,200 PTA for a $5.69 mil opening in a wide 2,500 theaters.
---
Wagering Analysis:
Approximate current Pinny line for Material Girls:
Over 4.5 million +180
Under 4.5 million -200
As seen earlier, some of the above movies clear the $4.5 mil line for Material Girls, but the key is PTA's. The above movies that hit $5-6 mil were expected to be successes perhaps hitting double digits, with theater counts from 2,500-3,000.
The studio distributing this movie, MGM, knows this thing sucks and is dumping it in 1,500 theaters according to current information. It is also reported that there has also been almost very little marketing. This would lead me to guess a $1,500 PTA or so, with a $2,000 PTA being the likely upper limit. Even if wrong, it's difficult to see how it could possibly get the $3,000 PTA needed to hit the $4.5 mil line, or even the $2,667 PTA needed to hit a lower $4.0 mil line.
My expectation is $2-3 million, towards the lower end of the range, perhaps $2.25 million.
---
Conclusion: Bet Under 4.5 million up to -300, Bet Under 4.0 million up to -200. I have taken bets on the Under 4.5 at -180.
3* Material Girls Under 4.5 million (plays rated on a 1-5 star scale)
My posted RX movie record: 3-1, +103 units.
My own YTD movie record: 8-3 ; weighted * record: 20-6
---
Cliff Notes: Bet Material Girls Under virtually any posted line.
Material Girls will be a virtually sure-fire box office flop by movie standards. The question is how much of a flop will it be, for betting purposes. Long analysis below, Cliff Notes on bottom.
---
Background:
Hilary Duff stars in this movie, along with her lesser known sister Haylie. Duff's career has faded fast, going from a popular teen draw in Lizzie McGuire, to an average teen rom-com in Cinderella Story, to a string of flops afterwards.
The best comparison for this movie is the Duff solo vehicle, Raise Your Voice. After being in several moderately successful movies, and having a built-in teen fanbase from television and singing, Duff attempted to carry this movie centered around her music aspirations. It should have been her 8 Mile, and instead, flopped its way to a $4 million opening even though it was in more than 2,500 theaters. It carried a horrible opening PTA of less than $1,600, and ended up making only $10 mil total vs a $15 mil budget.
In her next attempt, producers tried to pair her with Heather Locklear in a PG rom-com for teens and families. This should have been a wider draw, with popular adult actors (pairing Locklear with Chris Noth of Sex and the City) expanding the audience. But this failed as well, opening to $5.4 mil in 2,087 theaters with a $2,540 PTA.
Other comparisons can be made to similar tweener movies which have failed, despite even more popular actresses. The billionaire Olsen twins, despite their enormous fanbase, flopped in New York Minute with a PTA under $2,000 and and opening of $5.96 mil due only to the very large 3,000 theater count (due to formerly high expectations).
July tweener movie Sleepover with Alexa Vega, of the enormously popular Spy Kids franchise, flopped to a similar sub-$1,900 PTA, opening to $4.17 mil in 2,200 theaters.
The formerly popular Lindsay Lohan flopped earlier this year as well in Just My Luck, with a $2,200 PTA for a $5.69 mil opening in a wide 2,500 theaters.
---
Wagering Analysis:
Approximate current Pinny line for Material Girls:
Over 4.5 million +180
Under 4.5 million -200
As seen earlier, some of the above movies clear the $4.5 mil line for Material Girls, but the key is PTA's. The above movies that hit $5-6 mil were expected to be successes perhaps hitting double digits, with theater counts from 2,500-3,000.
The studio distributing this movie, MGM, knows this thing sucks and is dumping it in 1,500 theaters according to current information. It is also reported that there has also been almost very little marketing. This would lead me to guess a $1,500 PTA or so, with a $2,000 PTA being the likely upper limit. Even if wrong, it's difficult to see how it could possibly get the $3,000 PTA needed to hit the $4.5 mil line, or even the $2,667 PTA needed to hit a lower $4.0 mil line.
My expectation is $2-3 million, towards the lower end of the range, perhaps $2.25 million.
---
Conclusion: Bet Under 4.5 million up to -300, Bet Under 4.0 million up to -200. I have taken bets on the Under 4.5 at -180.
3* Material Girls Under 4.5 million (plays rated on a 1-5 star scale)
My posted RX movie record: 3-1, +103 units.
My own YTD movie record: 8-3 ; weighted * record: 20-6
---
Cliff Notes: Bet Material Girls Under virtually any posted line.
presales for Snakes has been low per notfabio from the hsx boards -guildda said:
Sad, sad, sad snakes advance sales report
-- notfabio, Aug 17, 7:13
Pre-open SNAKP tonight?
28 as of 2am PST
The entire weekend?
2 for SNAKP
2 for WTCEN
Everything else, zilch.
This is going to be exactly like FRFLY where you are going to have locations that report huge business and crazy sellouts and then, well.......
It should still have a Friday in it, but nothing indicating a monster huge weekend here....
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another post below from notfabio
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Maybe. Being a horror thriller with a name star it is an easier sell than FRFLY so I can't see it doing horrifically bad
-- notfabio, Aug 17, 7:52
28 sales for tonight still points towards at least a teens opening and where it is tracking is still possible if numbers improve late tonight.
The only disaster scenario is if the concept is so distasteful to the general public and the internet/college kids all power in tonight and that's it.
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His theater presale numbers don't look promising as the movie isn't even close to Miami Vice numbers which made mid-20's. We still have 10pm showings tonight which will give even a better picture, and most books keep lines open through Friday morning.
