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| Yesterday | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | +2.78 |
| Last 30 Days | 9 | 10 | 0.00 | +2.86 |
| Season to Date | 9 | 10 | 0.00 | +2.86 |
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Sunday, April 6
N.Y. METS +101 over Cincinnati
Aside from losing both games in this set and losing its third straight, Cincinnati's pitching has been tagged for 17 runs in those three games. The Reds are off to a 1-4 start and that’s after much more favorable pitching matchups than this one. Alfredo Simon hasn’t started a Major League game since 2011. He did make six starts in the spring and posted an ERA of 4.63, a WHIP of 1.37, walked 8 batters and whiffed 14 in 23.1 innings. Last season pitching in relief, Simon limped to the finish with stats buoyed by an unrepeatable second half hit rate. That was the second straight year he's managed a sub-3 ERA on barely average skills but you only have to go back to 2011 to see he doesn't possess any magical ability to out-pitch his talent. The smart money says bet on skills, not stats and Simon most definitely lacks skills.
We would have to assume that the Mets would not be taking a chance with Jonathan Niese this early on in the season if he was not 100% ready to go. Last year, Niese was diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff and took six weeks off to rest/rehab. He then returned in the 2H to put together a career-best run. The injury risk is reflected in his poor health grade but Niese’s solid command, strong groundball tilt of 52% and consistent history presents potential reward too. Niese has had many months and stretches in his career in which he’s completely dominated the opposition. Last August for instance, he posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Niese's ability to keep the ball on the ground has limited the long-ball and kept his ERA in check. Today, we get Niese at a discount and although he will be on a 95 pitch count, that’s plenty to take us into the sixth inning. Wrong side favored.
Chicago +116 over KANSAS CITY
With an ERA barely above 3.00 and 13 wins, James Shields’ first season in Kansas City was a success. On the surface he looks like he’s primed for another fine year but when we look under the hood we see plenty of reasons to expect regression. Shields’ xERA, particularly in the second half, indicates that there was some skills slippage. It looks like the big groundball gain in 2012 was an aberration, as it slipped to 42%, down from 52% the year before and that 42% GB rate is almost exactly where he’s been in that department his entire career. He also gave up a lot more line drives than usual. In his first start against Detroit, Shields’ struck out just three batters in six innings and had a groundball/fly-ball split of 30%/50%. We’re also seeing a three-year increase in WHIP from 2011-2013 that went from 1.04 to 1.17 to 1.24 last year. In summarizing, Shields’ has shown a decline in groundball rate, strikeout rate, groundball rate and WHIP and he wasn’t particularly sharp in his opener either. That makes him very unappealing spotting a tag against Chris Sale.
If you look strictly at W-L record, Chris Sale’s 2013 was a failure, since he went from 17-8 in 2012 to 11-14 in 2013. However, a closer look at his performance shows that he actually took a step up. Sale's control just keeps getting better and when you combine that with his high strikeout rate, his command is going through the roof. As usual, he keeps the ball on the ground, always a good skill no matter where you’re pitching. His fastball velocity rose from 91.3 in 2012 to 92.6 in 2013 and reports are that it’s even a tick higher this season. Sale’s dominant start/disaster start split highlights his reliability, as he only had one true disaster start all year, way back in April. In 2012, his one flaw was a 2nd half fade but that did not happen in ‘13. Now, there's scarcely a blemish to find other than pitching for a poor team. Sale’s 77%/3% dominant start//disaster start split last year tells you all you need to know about how much he abused AL hitting. His curveball is sick. Sale is truly one of the game’s best that will likely be in the Cy Young discussion by the end of the year. Invest.
MIAMI -1 +124 over San Diego
The Padres won their opener against the Dodgers last Sunday but for them, that must seem like ages ago because they haven’t won since. The Padres are now 1-4 and they’re batting a major-league worst .185. In those five games, San Diego has scored eight times. Yeah, it’s early but these poor starts often last a month or more and right now the Padres are pure fade material. Less than two years removed from a sub-3.00 ERA season, Ian Kennedy was traded from Arizona to San Diego at the 2013 trade deadline. He had a 5.23 ERA at the time, and things didn't exactly turn around after the trade (4.24 ERA in 10 starts with SD). Not much has changed in Kennedy's skill set other than the control spike so there’s probably not going to be much change in his ERA either. Most disturbing about Kennedy’s profile is that he tanks the second and third time through the order almost every time he takes the hill and now he’s facing a Marlins team that are not only swinging some hot sticks but that is also having more fun than any team in baseball.
Miami is 5-1 and they have deserved every win. They lead the NL with a batting average of .313, which is second in the majors behind Detroit. The Marlins 40 runs in six games leads the major leagues. This is a very speedy and aggressive team that has yet to hit into a double play this year. That keeps rallies alive and they are probably not going to need many runs to defeat the reeling Padres. Keep your eye on Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi showed signs in the spring of turning his upper-90s heat into strikeouts. He threw 18 spring innings and struck out 16 while issuing just five walks. In his first start against Colorado, Eovaldi went six full, struck out six, walked one and gave up just two earned runs. He was the winning pitcher and he looked impressive. Eovaldi quietly posted the highest four-seam fastball velocity in 2013 among starters with at least 40 IP. This guy has dominant raw stuff (96 MPH heat) and is one of the most intriguing and under-the-radar pitchers in the game. The Padres early season miseries continue.
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.68 |
| Last 30 Days | 10 | 12 | 0.00 | +1.18 |
| Season to Date | 10 | 12 | 0.00 | +1.18 |
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Monday, April 7
KANSAS CITY +106 over Tampa Bay
Matt Moore went 17-4 last year and that has him entering this season and one of the majors most overvalued hurlers. W/L records for starters in baseball is perhaps the most misleading stat in all of sports and we’ll look to take advantage of that here. Moore seems like a permanent member of the high risk choices, as his chronic control issues and high fly-ball% tendency make him susceptible to a wide range of outcomes. In his first start of the season he threw only 60 of his 106 pitches for strikes and posted a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball percentage of 37%/26%/37% with a WHIP of 1.59. This past spring, Moore walked 15 in 17.1 innings of work. Moore missed August in 2013 with a sore elbow and then September was a disaster once you get past the 2.79 ERA (poor command and a 5.07 xERA). Not only does his lack of control cause him to deal out walks, it also drives up his pitch count, making him less likely to pitch deep into games. Moore can strikeout batters but he gives the opposition far too many scoring chances and it’s going to catch up to him. Additionally, he’s not in the clear regarding his elbow issues either.
Jason Vargas comes into this year like he does every year - with a good consistency grade. His xERA shows his steadiness. Sure, some things are up (overall skills and command) and some are down (strikeout rate%, notably), but it all comes out in the wash. Vargas lost time last year to a blood clot but otherwise he's good for 200 fair-to-middling, blandly consumed innings pitched. Umm, are you yawning? We are too but Vargas almost always keeps his team in the game and had an outstanding first start against the scorching hot bats of the Tigers in which he went seven full and allowed just five hits and one run. Throw in a tag and we’ll gladly go with consistency over wildness.
COLORADO -1½ +156 over Chicago
The White Sox salvaged a game in Kansas City when Chris Sale dominated the Royals but that was Chicago’s only win over their last four games. The South Side’s pitching staff has allowed 27 runs over their previous four games prior to yesterday including 16 to the light-hitting Twins in two games. In 15.2 innings of relief work this season, Chicago’s already taxed bullpen has been tagged for 19 hits and 11 runs for an ERA of 6.32. The pen has also walked 12 batters and there is no question that we’ll see that pen (likely early) again in this one. Felipe Paulino had an up and down effort in his initial start back after missing the 2013 season following Tommy John surgery. He did strike out six in 5.1 IP, yet his fastball velocity averaged 93.5 mph, down from the 95-96 mph range he was at pre-surgery in 2012. Paulino wiggled out of some jams but that was against the Twinkies and you could see he was fighting it the entire game. Paulino’s WHIP in his first start was an alarming 1.69 and today's matchup against the Rockies at Coors Field is as tough as they come. The Rockies' lineup had a .808 OPS at home last season, best in the NL so look for Paulino and the South Side’s pen to get knocked around throughout.
Jordan Lyles, demoted when Franklin Morales nudged him out for the Rockies' fifth starter role, quickly returned when Tyler Chatwood's DL move was announced. Lyles started 65 games for the Astros from 2011-2013. His 5.35 ERA there contributed to Houston's misfortunes but his 4.19 xERA might say he deserved better. As a low-strikeout pitcher (6.2 K’s per nine) with fringe-to-average command, he'll need to maintain his near-50% groundball rate and he did precisely that with a 60% groundball rate in his first start against Miami. Lyles will likely give up some runs here but Colorado’s pen will pick him up and allow the Rockies to pull away. This one is all about fading the White Sox, Felipe Paulino and Chicago’s bullpen.
San Diego +133 over CLEVELAND
Corey Kluber is battling everything right now. Kluber had a horrible spring in which he posted an ERA of 5.60 after giving up 33 runs in 27 frames. He subsequently went out and got rocked in his first start in Oakland by allowing eight hits and five earned runs in 3.1 innings. To make matters worse, Kluber walked three batters and struck out just two. Those three walks he surrendered to Oakland is a tell-take sign of a pitcher that is not comfortable challenging hitters. He’s scared to come at them and that’s not the type of pitcher you want to back spotting a price. Additionally, the Indians bullpen has been a complete mess thus far.
San Diego came up with a solid win in Miami yesterday after losing four straight previously and one win does wonders to a teams’ psyche. Robbie Erlin makes his first start of the season here. Last season, Erlin had a 4.11 xERA in nine starts. However, he showed why he has been a hot prospect with outstanding skills in four September starts. Lefties did hit him hard in SD and oddly enough, he had this reverse split throughout the minors too. Still, starters with Erlin’s skills don't grow on trees and the good news here is that Cleveland is hitting just .164 in 55 AB’s this season against southpaws. Erlin may need more seasoning but it could come very quickly if he solves LH batters because he had everything else working beautifully last September and this in spring training this year. We’re investing.
| Yesterday | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +5.12 |
| Last 30 Days | 12 | 12 | 0.00 | +6.30 |
| Season to Date | 12 | 12 | 0.00 | +6.30 |
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N.Y. Mets/ATLANTA over 7½ +102
Aaron Harang came out in his first start as a Brave and made the Brewers look like a bunch of school children by throwing 6.2 innings of two-hit shutout ball. Harang comes up with a game like that from time to time but his chances of repeating it are about the same as Lindsay Lohan’s chances of handling her money well in Hollywood after a bender. Expectations for Harang entering 2013 were justifiably grim, as his skills and xERA suggested his sub-4 ERAs of the previous two seasons were a mirage. Harang’s ERA/xERA gap over the past three years is considerable, but the latter is still in line with his pedestrian results from previous years. Plus, career oppBA (.270), WHIP (1.35) and hit percentage of balls in play (46%) all suggest he's not fooling anyone. Harang also has a huge propensity for giving up home runs, especially with men on base. He gave up 26 last year in just 143 frames and most of those occurred at pitcher friendly Safeco. When Harang came over to the Mets he allowed five jacks in just 23 innings. Even if he has a decent game here, he’ll give up two or three runs and the Braves should take care of the rest to send this one over the number.
Last year was one of surprises for Bartolo Colon. First, he surprised everyone by coming off a 50-game PED-related suspension by delivering a career year at age 40. Then he surprised us in the offseason by landing a two-year contract with the Mets. Colon's numbers say he continues to get better with age but his skills disagree. A big part of Colon's recent success is his control. He simply doesn't allow walks. Colon has thrived, however, because of a high strand % and that’s a tough way to go about business. Lower hr/f and hr/9 rates in Oakland helped, too. However, Citi Field and other parks around the NL, including Turner Field isn't as forgiving. Colon's xERA provide a better picture of what his skills are more likely to deliver this year. Expect low strikeout totals, a lower strand percentage leading to a much higher ERA and nowhere near the 18 wins he put up for the A’s. Yes, Colon has defied the odds before but sooner or later the underlying skills will show up.
Milwaukee -109 over PHILADELPHIA
4:05 PM EST. The Phillies are banking on a core of players in their mid-30s, which consists of 36-year-old outfielder Marlon Byrd, 36-year-old backup catcher Wil Nieves, 37-year-old starter A.J. Burnett, 40-year-old Bobby Abreu, 34-year-old Ryan Howard, 35-year old Carlos Ruiz and 35-year olds Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. We mention this because of the significance in the decline of MLB players once they hit age 35. In fact, only 4.2% of 35+year-old hitters made the Top 25 in ONE offensive category (hits, RBI’s, runs scored, HR’s, extra bases, on base percentage, and BA) in spite of being 7.9% of the MLB population. That’s all you really need to know about the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies when anyone not named Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels is pitching. Cited as a "breakout candidate" a couple of times in this space last year, Kyle Kendrick made us look good through June. But being blasted for 21 ER in the next 26 IP blew that away and shoulder woes shelved him later. He has nice control and a good groundball rate but with a chronically subpar strikeout rate he's very hittable. Loss of 2012-2013 swinging strike rate gain closes the door on that breakout and current Brewers have 22 hits in 67 AB’s (.328) against Kendrick.
The Brewers swept the Red Sox in Boston to run their record to 4-2. Milwaukee smacked around Clay Buchholz and defeated both John Lester and Jake Peavy. They also did a number on several Red Sox relievers. They come into this series still undervalued and still very playable at this price. We know Kyle Lohse isn't going to blow away hitters with his mid-80s fastball. But it's also obvious that he owns three straight seasons of 30-plus starts, an ERA below 3.50 and double-digit wins. Are we giving Lohse enough credit? Look beyond the strikeouts and Lohse's skills aren't bad at all. His strikeout rate slipped but he maintained a solid command rate because of pinpoint control. Stable hit % and history versus both lefties and righties says that he's still keeping hitters on both sides off balance. Skeptics keep waiting for Lohse's numbers to better reflect his raw skills. But the 35-year-old continues to outperform by making good use of five pitches and providing consistency from start to start—a fact that has helped deliver at least 20 quality starts each of the past two years. And he has been excellent at avoiding disasters the past two seasons. While he won't get strikeouts, it's too easy to simply dismiss Lohse's past three seasons as repeated flukes. With that we’ll spot the cheap price, especially when you consider that current Phillies have hit just .229 in 144 career AB’s versus Lohse.
SEATTLE -1 +124 over L.A. Angels
The Angels have a lot of big names and high expectations, which make them perhaps the most overvalued team in baseball. It’s early but the Angels three wins in seven games all came against the Astros. When they hosted these Mariners last week back in Anaheim, Seattle swept them and outscored them 26-8. Now we get a repeat pitching matchup and we’ll repeat exactly what we wrote back on April 2 when these two starters hooked up because nothing has changed except the venue.
From our April 2 write-up with some minor changes:
There were openings in the back-end of the Anaheim rotation and Hector Santiago snuck into one of them. Santiago, who came over from the White Sox via a trade, impressed early in spring training but he ended it with a rough start against the Diamondbacks' Triple-A squad in which he gave up six runs in five-plus innings. Despite the outwardly impressive numbers, there are reasons to beware: His ERA looks good, but he’s been helped by favorable strand percentages the past two years. Santiago’s xERA says this isn’t the skill set of a sub-4.00 pitcher and he walks too many batters (113 BB in 224 career innings). Santiago also gives up a lot of fly balls as evidenced by his 37%/44% groundball/fly-ball split over his career. Leaving US Cellular Field (RH HR +38%) will help but right now the Mariners have some pop in their bats. Santiago’s fastball velocity is also heading in the wrong direction, as it declined from 93.8 in 2011 to 91.8 in 2013. Lastly and another concern for Santiago is that he had a big IP boost from 2012 to 2013. This is a risky skill set that could hurt your bankroll.
James Paxton went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings for Seattle as a September call-up. Paxton features a mid-90s heater, a changeup he'll use anytime and a curve as his out pitch. Paxton has maintained a 55% groundball rate throughout his minor-league career and matched that in the aforementioned 24 innings last September. Erosion of command on the way up the ladder is a concern but as 25-year-old ground-baller with three plus pitches, there's just too much upside in him to ignore against the Halos. Paxton certainly has value this early in the season and we’re on him again.
San Diego +134 over CLEVELAND
We targeted the Padres yesterday with Robbie Erlin going against Corey Kluber but that game was rained out. Today we get an even more favorable matchup. Kluber is battling everything right now. He had a horrible spring in which he posted an ERA of 5.60 after giving up 33 runs in 27 frames. He subsequently went out and got rocked in his first start in Oakland by allowing eight hits and five earned runs in 3.1 innings. To make matters worse, Kluber walked three batters and struck out just two. Those three walks he surrendered to Oakland is a tell-take sign of a pitcher that is not comfortable challenging hitters. He’s scared to come at them and that’s not the type of pitcher you want to back spotting a price. Additionally, the Indians bullpen has been a complete mess thus far.
Tyson Ross had a rough first outing against the Dodgers but we’re not going to put much emphasis on that because he had a huge breakout last year, which was masked only by a poor team and innings lost to a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury. Ross found command of his beastly slider and became one of the toughest starters to hit in the NL, with a 55% groundball lean to boot. A concurrent growth in strikeout rate and control is always a great sign and Ross’s command approached elite territory down the stretch. Ross transitioned to the starting rotation in late July and never looked back, putting up a 3.13 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. His 2H xERA of 2.42 in 2013 says it all—he was one of the game's best down the stretch. There are so many strong signs in Ross’s profile, making him one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Invest.
