Sharpest World Cup Plays (Special Edition)

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Didn't paste the beginning

World Cup Overall Record: 26-9 (1-2 with official plays)

After a string of successful picks I manage to drop my two biggest plays in the tourney. I have to be honest (as I'm known to do) and say those were very square takes not only in the sense of handicapping but betting 101. I pride myself as a pretty darn good money manager and those two picks were anything but. Both Brazil and Argentina came in with too many uncertainties for me to lay vig such as I did. Brazil had most of their midfield out and lacked the fire power in previous campaigns. Dunga brought a more European touch and not enough flair to a team that is used to run and not play defense (see Phoenix Suns). Argentina was a team also without many innovators (Messi was the only midfielder that scared anyone).

In conclusion while Holland may have gotten a lot of breaks (Brazil heading the ball in their own goal, calls going Holland's favor for the most part (see ejection), etc.) it was still a very poor play in terms of value. As for the other Germany is simply a team seemingly playing with men (even though their younger than everyone else) while others play with boys. They're filled skill, strength, enough speed, and plenty of wit. So props to them for proving me and the world how good they really were and that their previous rout was no fluke.

Enough with the past lets move on to tomorrow's match up:

The Uruguayans can be without up to 4 of their starters with Suarez, Fucille, and Lodeiro being certainties. Captain midfielder Diego Lugano is also suffering from ligament problems and may also miss the match. Note: defender Diego Godin is said to be back with the team from the latest reports I've read (he missed the Ghana game). With all these pieces out Holland becomes the predominate favorite going into this encounter. Now many may overlook the missing pieces of Uruguay but I think the Netherlands have some concerns as well with both their winder De Wiel out and their enforcer holding midfielder De Jong out. I'll make a decision on this game once I see the lineups, will Holland get "offensive" with Huntleear (forgive the spelling) or put someone like Van der Vaart or Elias.
 

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Looking forward to your pick... feeling a rebound coming.
 

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You have played a total of 3 games? I don't understand this thread, you are taking credit for your thoughts?
 

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You have played a total of 3 games? I don't understand this thread, you are taking credit for your thoughts?

He posted his leans and analysis. What's wrong with taking credit for your own thoughts/opinion/leans? You don't have to play $ for every contribution you make to your thread if that's what your asking.
 

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Hmm, let me think this is a gambling site? At least put your leans in brackets and then your record in front. He posts his record in brackets as if that is an after thought.
 

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Hmm, let me think this is a gambling site? At least put your leans in brackets and then your record in front. He posts his record in brackets as if that is an after thought.

Then, by no mean, go with his leans instead of his official plays ???
I wouldn't debate whether this is a gambling site for just a sports forum.... I'm pretty sure many posters here posted their plays without putting a penny on it. Just my opinion.
 

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He posted his leans and analysis. What's wrong with taking credit for your own thoughts/opinion/leans? You don't have to play $ for every contribution you make to your thread if that's what your asking.


Not at all, but I am more interested in his thought process of picking Brazil and Arg. before the games started instead of why he shouldn't have after the losses.
 
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World Cup Official Record:1-2 -2.906 (25-7 leans)

I have a really bad case of the flu and I actually missed work, the game and everything in between my last post till 2 hours ago. I finish watching today's game and it was a very enjoyable affair with two very intense squads clicking at almost all cylinders. The Dutch finally went back to there total football their supporters have dearly enjoyed and I assume missed. Holland played extremely well in attack using the flanks mainly with Robben and Schneider to anchor the attack in the middle, Dirk Kyut also amazes with grit, determination, and unbelievable stamina. Van Persie continues to get little opportunities as their lone striker but has done a nice job of going back and facilitating his midfielders for scoring chances. The defense in the other hand shows instability and more so with the underrated De Jong holding off attacks. I stated that these losses from both teams can produce goals and it did but with the starting lineups that were used I would have definitely have passed on a play and possibly a lean.

Lets get to the matter of your truly posting plays, leans, thoughts, etc. in this thread. I apologize if any of you has gotten the impression that I am taking credit for leans way too much. NOTHING can be further from the truth. I have even written on the dullness of picking plays and not getting any loot in return, I'm sure some may share in this maybe a better word than dullness frustration haha. I have even put the record straight tk2wndw as your correct sir it may be viewed as misleading. Bunny your quite right, my intent was to do so but I wasn't able to. Honestly in a sick way I'm glad I didn't because quite frankly I have pride and I would have appeared even more foolish (this is simple honesty). Varkeyboy thank you for the vote of confidence that means quite a bit for a degenerate such as myself. Lastly PeePee thanks bud for everything, defending me, my plays, leans, for putting up with the horrendous grammar, and simply being a computer friend.

Alright, now that we've covered that I will attempt to breakdown tomorrow's long awaited showdown of Spaniards and Germans. I've probably said enough about the Germans in my previous post, their talented that about sums it up. Last time I checked the boys nicknamed the "Red Fury" are also pretty darn talented. To save you the trouble of reading about things you probably already know what I like here is the under and quite a bit. Gun to the head I will take Spain despite my reservations but lets get back to the under. Warning those not interested in elementary observations can leave now. Germany will be without Mueller, they are solid in defending the midfield and the back with plenty of guys who win balls and play very well above their necks. Spain also a veteran bunch when it comes to defending, Busquets and Alonso are solid and the same can be said for Puyol. Pique and Capdevilla are my concerns, they have played poorly and that's understatement to be frank. My With the Spanish defensive scheme and veteran leaders I don't see the Germans going off for the third straight knockout stage game. Also note Cesc is nursing an injury which I'm sure readers that have gotten this far in this post are aware of, I venture to guess we will see him as a late entry and maybe no entry at all (something I would prefer to make the possibility of his Arsenal stay more plausible). To take one side in this game is purely preference by my estimations but what do I know I'm just a guy good with leans ;)


Lean: Germany/Spain U2.5


Note: thank you guys for posting, I appreciate all the words regardless of your intent.
 

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This is a very hard game to cap... even harder than Ger/Arg.
 

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You do know your soccer, that I can not doubt. Good luck with your plays.
 
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.40* Spain to advance -108
.40* U2.5 -150

live betting

like the change with Pedro, I already talked about why I liked the under. Rolling with Spain as this simply too much value due mostly to perception.
 

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Nice winners as Spain was the better team.

And the under won easily with a 1-0 final.
 
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World Cup Official Record:3-2 -2.106 (25-7 leans)

So despite my early reservations on picking a side (though I said gun to the head I'll take Spain) and going with a lean I finally had an epiphany. You see us gamblers also have moments of brilliance (not many but some). The questions I started asking myself is if this game were to take place in the group stage how much of a favorite would Spain be? I'm not exactly the sharpest tool when it comes to soccer but I would have ventured to guess -140 at least so I said to myself I'm practically getting even money with a team with superior players in every level (goalie, back 4, midfield, and forwards). When this revelation became privy to my thoughts I said why not take a chance on them.They did not disappoint playing and dominating a German team many were really high on going into this game (rightfully so). Spain was unlucky to score more but that benefited yours truly. The under was just a logical decision as stated in my write up, I knew these teams would respect one another and goals would be at a premium for that reason and the style of play, lineups, etc. being other reasons.

Now we have in our horizon a final that many (in Europe especially) would appreciate in terms of style of play. These teams don't play long ball or sit back waiting for counters what they do is attack with short precision passes, send speedy guys down the flanks and have plenty finishers that can display enjoyable goals.
My initial thoughts are the following: if we talk in terms of talent Spain is hands down the better team again in every level of the field as was the case with the game today. Give me Spain back four of Ramos, Pique, Puyol, and Capdevilla over the Dutch, same goes for all the other levels especially forwards with Villa, Pedro, and Torrez over RVP and Huntleear and the goalies. Kuyt, Robben, Schieder are all dangerous players and so is Elia when brought off the bench there's not sure thing when it comes to soccer but I really believe its Spain's time. So as you can venture to guess its Spain or nothing for me but I have to evaluate the value and maybe a match up that Holland can exploit. Again these are merely my initial thoughts.

If anyone has anything to add on this upcoming match up please do as your comments, thoughts, etc. are highly appreciated.
 
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1* Uruguay +1 -160 (Greek)
.20* Uruguay +0.5 +120 (5Dimes)
.10* Uruguay ML +390

Biggest play of the tourney, tons of value with these number by estimations. Klose out. some others are also iffy, bad spot (let down much bigger for Germany). I'll do a write up before the contest once I get all the info.
 
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Uruguay vs Germany will be a very interesting affair, I really believe Germany will not be clicking at all cylinders and can you blame them? Uruguay has a very strong defense which was unlucky to give up some of the goals they did. I think both teams has great finishers but with Klose possibly missing this encounter and Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil also nursing some injuries I have to roll with the Celestes getting a goal. I'm also considering betting the over here.

Why is the line where it is? Uruguay is underrated while Germany is slightly overrated.
 

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