Sharpest World Cup Plays (Special Edition)

[VoiceofReason101]

What makes this thread so sharp and special on whats infamously known as the world's sport (wait isn't sex a sport, oh never mind), well my friends its quite simple here we won't bee you to death with this bloody (a great Brit contribution) vulvu ah fcuk it not even going to attempt to spell and no I'm not going to google it (I mean can you blame me I'm terrified that my computer might get infected), OK OK I''ll put a period now for you grammar geeks. You see I'm here to serve, not just me but all of you, those that are here to make money (I mean if you tell me a sport I've ever lost in I'll give you a perfectly developed porn star (yeah I know those to) to give you a blow that will maker your feet quiver), those that want a little fun and humor (well OK maybe not you guys), and especially the passionate sports (gambling) degenerates just passing by for a small snack of pondering. Well my fellow amigos (foreshadowing here even though kind of hard not to notice that play down there) I'm gonna fire away, no promises despite my very own self promotion of being the clever master immune to the imperial gambling forces that trample most. No I'm simply going to provide (myself) logical questions and answer them to the best of my ability. First let me break down my very own (chaotic) unit breakdown:

.80*: $200 = Strong (Big) Play
.40* $100 = Medium Play
.20*: $50 = Small Play

In other words no play will exceed $200 (.80*) why you may ask well football (soccer) is not my main sport sh!t its not even my 4th best sport and you all know that money management to me is #1. No more commentary here's my first play:


.20* Mexico +0.25 +103 (in other words I win if the game is a push)

 

[VoiceofReason101]

1-0 +0.20

going to look at tomorrow's matches tonight after the game (Bos-LAL)

 

[VoiceofReason101]

One play sometime ago, as I said in my baseball thread I've been overwhelmed with MLB, marriage, work, and family so its really difficult to give 100% to handicapping the world cup despite my passion and enthusiasm for the game. Things I have deduced with what I've seen and read are a lot of not so well oiled machines when it comes to the superpowers of the sport. Breakdown of my thoughts are as follows:

Group A) Tough game to predict tomorrow with Mexico vs Uruguay. If Mexico heads with major injury concerns (Vela/Marquez) plus a player suspension (Juarez), they seem to be very well together (unlike some of the European teams I'll mention later) and have quality and character. Uruguay also shows great maturity and with superior strikers its difficult to fade this South American squad. Many thought going into the tourney they would have a hard time advancing but I simply didn't see it, its too bad I haven't taken advantage of it. Small lean with Uruguay.
As for the other contest I have no lean nor do I want to. Don't think anyone in their right minds (unless they have an inside scoop) can back a side like France who has lived up and more to their pre tournament label of being a squad of extreme limitations in finding the goal. The team is in shambles and the quality simply isn't their despite a list of household names (houses not in the U.S. naturally). S. Africa has not much going for them (in my eyes) heading into this one except pride/being at home/playing against a team that might not even show up (figuratively speaking). For that reason though they have my lean.

Gun to the head plays: Uruguay/Under and S. Africa plus whatever you can get/Over


I'll have my Group B breakdown in a bit, no plays on those two games either though if your wondering.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

My Group A) leans are looking pretty good thus far, now let me quickly breakdown the next group:

Group B) Everyone I know seemingly thought that fading Argentina was a good idea, I'm not one to fall for popular opinion so I did a little digging right before the first match. Once I saw the change of strategy by putting their best players and most logical formation to boot it was then when I thought to myself a lot of cappers are going to be bringing themselves a world of hurt if they think fading Argentina will bring them luscious gifts. As for the rest of the teams in the groups I haven't followed closely at all and to be quite honest I can't name more than 2 players. My strategy is to look and read as much about S. Korea as I have them advancing for obvious reasons. So that will be the game I'll watch and in Nigeria wins by 2 goals I'll then shift my attention towards them.

Leans: Argentina to win (small hedge win draw)/under and Draw/Under

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Isn't it the sickest thing to tell everyone how you think the games will transpire and even post it in my case and they end up 7-1. Sweeping Group A and losing only the under of the Nigeria game in Group B (nailing the draw which would have given me some profit solely on that game). I also nailed both groups advancers (I love creating new words) in the correct order. K I'll stop now, this is getting quite nauseating even for myself. Tomorrow's card is incredibly difficult to predict, I really want to make a play on England and the over but I want to wait and see the lineup and any news in the soap box. I think Serbia might be the best play of all the favorites, less pressure, a lot to play for (they win they're in) and Australia is the worst side of the group. I'm going to read up all I can on them and if anyone wants to give there two cents on Serbia or England please I'll be honored.

I'll post my leans (possibly a play or check for a parlay on my baseball thread) tomorrow 15-30 minutes before game time.

 

[Martinga]

i know EXACTLY how you feel. Same thing happened to me, i stopped posting my plays and i won on props that paid out 50 to 1 lmao. Happens all the time.
I like England too but im unsure if they'll get the over too.
best of luck and don't hesitate to post your plays. You were dead on today

 

[Salsantorre]

well I played Slovenia already 'cause they are happy polka lovers, (even though their polkas are inferior to Polish polkas imo) anyway, I think Slovenia has a wonderful chance even though I know nothing about soccer. But I have been doing very well, probably for that reason

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Group C) This group has been riddled with plenty of English soap, U.S. bad starts, and the surprising Slovenians. One thing is for certain John Terry is a fcuking **** that much can be surmised. No Joe Cole in the midfield I have to say makes no sense when your having so much trouble achieving or generating offense but the same can be said for Holland (I'll get to them tomorrow) and Spain

leans: England to win/under (though I won't be surprised if it went over) and U.S. to win (had some thoughts on taking the draw)/under

Group D breakdown in a bit.

 

[PeePee]

Group C) This group has been riddled with plenty of English soap, U.S. bad starts, and the surprising Slovenians. One thing is for certain John Terry is a fcuking **** that much can be surmised. No Joe Cole in the midfield I have to say makes no sense when your having so much trouble achieving or generating offense but the same can be said for Holland (I'll get to them tomorrow) and Spain

leans: England to win/under (though I won't be surprised if it went over) and U.S. to win (had some thoughts on taking the draw)/under

Group D breakdown in a bit.

Sir, what's your lean on this afternoon games? You are scaring me with these Norstradamus stuff. LOL.
3-0-1 is crazy.

 

[STACKSONDECK]

wow

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Apologize for the foul language in my previous post.

Group D) Tough group to tackle, I mean that figuratively and literally, even without Essien. Hard physical play, going with the better teams here and not over thinking it.

Leans: Germany PK (lot of juice but I see a slim chance of them losing)/Over and Serbia PK (I won't be surprised to see a Draw or an upset after doing some research on this one though)/Over

 

[VoiceofReason101]

13-3 thus far after two days, I hope if anyone is tailing heed my warning that Group D was by far the hardest to cap for yours truly. I'll take the same approach with tomorrow's card of waiting till the lineups are announced though I'm almost certain I'll be taking Cameroon (unless Robben is a go) over Holland for an actual play. I'll also tackle and continue posting my leans with the other games.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

i know EXACTLY how you feel. Same thing happened to me, i stopped posting my plays and i won on props that paid out 50 to 1 lmao. Happens all the time.
I like England too but im unsure if they'll get the over too.
best of luck and don't hesitate to post your plays. You were dead on today

haha, yeah that's life sometimes, hope you did well today bud. I went with the under once I saw the lineups and had to lock up England with Defoe starting, thing the kid brings a certain kind of energy that is much needed for that side.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

well I played Slovenia already 'cause they are happy polka lovers, (even though their polkas are inferior to Polish polkas imo) anyway, I think Slovenia has a wonderful chance even though I know nothing about soccer. But I have been doing very well, probably for that reason

basing plays on polka's is simply brilliant, that would not have occurred to even the master

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Sir, what's your lean on this afternoon games? You are scaring me with these Norstradamus stuff. LOL.
3-0-1 is crazy.

4-0 actually thank you very much peepee haha

 

[VoiceofReason101]

wow

that's what I said when Donovan scored

 

[VoiceofReason101]

might not wake up in time so I'm giving these out now:

Paraguay PK/under and Italy PK (if Pirlo starts if not no lean at all)/under

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Scratch above post, just going with Paraguay PK lean, don't see them losing this game but they've made some changes and I no longer have a feel for the total. Both overs might be logical given Italy and NZ need for goals to break the tie for 2nd place. Paraguay though has a very strong defense and has the talent to dictate pace. So for the record:

Paraguay PK

As for Italy I'm very disappointed with this federation, they've kept possibly their two best strikers from the squad (CAntonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli) so they have no one to blame but themselves for their offensive problems.

rest later, Robben is back but will he start?

 

[VoiceofReason101]

World Cup Record: 1-0 +0.20 and 13-3 with my leans

Denmark and Holland have lacked explosive play makers and this has kept the Arsenal boys (Van Persie and Nicholas the Great Bendtner) from really making their mark on this tournament. The Dutch reluctance to start Elia and Robben being hurt has made them a more methodical offense one without the imagination of what total football is all about. Schneider seems to be the lone innovator and teams are ganging up on him without fear of others making them pay. De Jong is a holder, Van Bommel is a poor mans Frank Lampard, Kuyt lacks lateral quickness (at least makes up for it with desire and underrated technical skill), and Van Der Vaart just doesn't seem to have that next gear that is much needed. The Danish have similar problems and with Nicholas being at less than 100% I have to go with both doggies here:

leans: Cameroon +1 (suggest 10% on the ML)/Over and Japan +1 (suggest 10% on the ML)/Over

 

[VoiceofReason101]

3-0 with the late games, things went almost as I thought, props to Holland for pulling the late victory.

World Cup Record: 1-0 +0.20 and 16-3 with my leans (17-3 overall)

Have I mentioned I'm the master.