GC: MLB System play
Wednesday card has Triple Perfect MLB Total of the week and a 94% MLB Dominator system. Both are evening games MLB Total are hitting at 78% the last 2 months. Tuesday top play cashes again. MLB System Play below.
On Wednesday the MLB System Play is on the Kansas City Royals. Game 926 at 8:10 eastern. The Royals fit a nice system from the database tonight that has won 13 of 17 times and plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win vs an opponent like Seattle off a road dog loss, if both teams scored 4 or less runs and had 10 or more hits in their last game. KC has won 10 of 12 at home off a home win if they scored 4 or less runs. Seattle has lost 15 of 21 on Wednesday unfortunately putting them on the receiving end of Hump day. Ouch. The Royals have been solid as a home favorite in this range and have a nice pitching advantage with E. Santana who has a 3.15 home era over T. Walker for Seattle who is making just his 2nd start. Look for the Royals to get the win. On Hump day we will get on the "Giving End" with the Triple Perfect total of the week and another Powerful Dominator system. Totals are hitting 78% the last 2 months. Congrats to those who Jumped on Tuesday Big winner. For the Bonus Play take Kansas City. GC
Wednesday card has Triple Perfect MLB Total of the week and a 94% MLB Dominator system. Both are evening games MLB Total are hitting at 78% the last 2 months. Tuesday top play cashes again. MLB System Play below.
On Wednesday the MLB System Play is on the Kansas City Royals. Game 926 at 8:10 eastern. The Royals fit a nice system from the database tonight that has won 13 of 17 times and plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win vs an opponent like Seattle off a road dog loss, if both teams scored 4 or less runs and had 10 or more hits in their last game. KC has won 10 of 12 at home off a home win if they scored 4 or less runs. Seattle has lost 15 of 21 on Wednesday unfortunately putting them on the receiving end of Hump day. Ouch. The Royals have been solid as a home favorite in this range and have a nice pitching advantage with E. Santana who has a 3.15 home era over T. Walker for Seattle who is making just his 2nd start. Look for the Royals to get the win. On Hump day we will get on the "Giving End" with the Triple Perfect total of the week and another Powerful Dominator system. Totals are hitting 78% the last 2 months. Congrats to those who Jumped on Tuesday Big winner. For the Bonus Play take Kansas City. GC
Deja-vu for champion Vettel
Tom Millard previews the Italian Grand Prix and expects Sebastian Vettel to continue the dominance shown in Belgium last time.
Sebastian Vettel can lead home Fernando Alonso again
"We had massive pace," conceded Sebastian Vettel, while unsuccessfully trying to play down the extent of his dominance at Spa-Francorchamps last month.
Vettel won the Belgian Grand Prix by a country mile, the rest scrabbling in his wake for the scraps thrown from a Red Bull on cruise control.
With a 46-point lead at the top of the drivers' standings, the German is now as short as 1/10 to take his fourth successive world championship, a price which will probably look good value as the teams pack away their equipment in Monza's parkland surroundings on Sunday night.
That's because the script is looking eerily similar to two years ago, when Vettel's Red Bull was expected to struggle at the two low-downforce late summer races in Belgium and Italy, yet won both with an ease that sent rival engineers back to the drawing board.
Then, as now, most pundits had expected the Red Bull's underpowered Renault engine to have met its match with the high-speed drags up to Les Combes at Spa and the Ascari chicane at Monza.
But the team were able to configure their car to make a virtue out of its weakness, taking advantage of superior front downforce to slingshot out of the corners preceding the long straights far faster than the other cars, leaving them impossible to overtake despite their ultimate top-speed deficit.
Judging by the speed trap evidence at Spa, history appears to be repeating, with the Red Bull fastest at the start of the long Kemmel straight and seventh fastest at the end of it.
A repeat of those figures this weekend out of the Parabolica onto the start/finish straight, and out of the second Lesmo bend down towards Ascari, will bestow Vettel and Mark Webber with a significant advantage over the field.
Yet Vettel is 7/4 across the board to repeat his Spa/Monza double from two years ago, a price which looks very fair on the available evidence.
The bookies are probably right to see Fernando Alonso as the man most likely to challenge the champion at Ferrari's home race.
It's never wise to write off the Scuderia on their own turf given the extent to which they have enjoyed the rub of the green in the past, and it might be an idea to side with their lead driver in combination with Vettel in dual forecast market.
The pair are 7/2 to repeat their one-twos at the calendar's other two low-downforce tracks in Canada and Belgium, and this looks the logical outcome if the race goes to form.
We don't want to write off a Mercedes team with three wins from the last six races, especially given Lewis Hamilton's qualifying form of four consecutive poles, but they showed nothing in a similar trim at Spa to suggest they will be able to compete with Red Bull or Ferrari.
The instability of the W04 through fast corners will have concerned the Brackley boys, and a repeat of those jitters in Monza's four high-speed bends will completely nullify any top-end advantage provided by the formula's most powerful engine.
There's a small question mark over the weather (the chances of rain are currently fluctuating around 20 per cent on both Saturday and Sunday), and in the absence of any eye-catching prices in the other markets, we'll stick with our conservative bets on Vettel and Alonso.
Friday's practice sessions will take place at 0900 and 1300; Saturday's starts at 1000, with qualifying at 1300. The race is scheduled for 1300 on Sunday (BST).
- By: Tom Millard
- Last Updated: September 4 2013, 13:44 BST
Tom Millard previews the Italian Grand Prix and expects Sebastian Vettel to continue the dominance shown in Belgium last time.
Sebastian Vettel can lead home Fernando Alonso again
"We had massive pace," conceded Sebastian Vettel, while unsuccessfully trying to play down the extent of his dominance at Spa-Francorchamps last month.
Vettel won the Belgian Grand Prix by a country mile, the rest scrabbling in his wake for the scraps thrown from a Red Bull on cruise control.
-
3pts Sebastian Vettel to win the Italian Grand Prix at 7/4 - five from 11 so far this term and dominant at Spa -
2pts Vettel/Alonso dual forecast at 7/2 - the outcome of the last two visits to low-downforce tracks
With a 46-point lead at the top of the drivers' standings, the German is now as short as 1/10 to take his fourth successive world championship, a price which will probably look good value as the teams pack away their equipment in Monza's parkland surroundings on Sunday night.
That's because the script is looking eerily similar to two years ago, when Vettel's Red Bull was expected to struggle at the two low-downforce late summer races in Belgium and Italy, yet won both with an ease that sent rival engineers back to the drawing board.
Then, as now, most pundits had expected the Red Bull's underpowered Renault engine to have met its match with the high-speed drags up to Les Combes at Spa and the Ascari chicane at Monza.
But the team were able to configure their car to make a virtue out of its weakness, taking advantage of superior front downforce to slingshot out of the corners preceding the long straights far faster than the other cars, leaving them impossible to overtake despite their ultimate top-speed deficit.
Judging by the speed trap evidence at Spa, history appears to be repeating, with the Red Bull fastest at the start of the long Kemmel straight and seventh fastest at the end of it.
A repeat of those figures this weekend out of the Parabolica onto the start/finish straight, and out of the second Lesmo bend down towards Ascari, will bestow Vettel and Mark Webber with a significant advantage over the field.
Yet Vettel is 7/4 across the board to repeat his Spa/Monza double from two years ago, a price which looks very fair on the available evidence.
The bookies are probably right to see Fernando Alonso as the man most likely to challenge the champion at Ferrari's home race.
It's never wise to write off the Scuderia on their own turf given the extent to which they have enjoyed the rub of the green in the past, and it might be an idea to side with their lead driver in combination with Vettel in dual forecast market.
The pair are 7/2 to repeat their one-twos at the calendar's other two low-downforce tracks in Canada and Belgium, and this looks the logical outcome if the race goes to form.
We don't want to write off a Mercedes team with three wins from the last six races, especially given Lewis Hamilton's qualifying form of four consecutive poles, but they showed nothing in a similar trim at Spa to suggest they will be able to compete with Red Bull or Ferrari.
The instability of the W04 through fast corners will have concerned the Brackley boys, and a repeat of those jitters in Monza's four high-speed bends will completely nullify any top-end advantage provided by the formula's most powerful engine.
There's a small question mark over the weather (the chances of rain are currently fluctuating around 20 per cent on both Saturday and Sunday), and in the absence of any eye-catching prices in the other markets, we'll stick with our conservative bets on Vettel and Alonso.
Friday's practice sessions will take place at 0900 and 1300; Saturday's starts at 1000, with qualifying at 1300. The race is scheduled for 1300 on Sunday (BST).
KYLE HUNTER
| Sport | Date | Matchup | Book | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Sep 04 '13 3:35p | Texas Rangers vs Oakland A's Take: Total 7 un-101 |
| in 4h |
| *5 Star MLB TOP Play of Day* The Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics have split the first two games of this critical three-game series in Oakland. Just one game separates these teams in the AL West standings, and game three of this series means a ton to both of these teams. Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Rangers while Jarrod Parker will be on the hill for the Athletics. Darvish has been superb all year, and he has been slightly better away from home (2.62 ERA). Parker started the year very poorly, but he has been a quality starts machine of late. In 20 of his last 21 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or less. Ron Kulpa is behind the plate calling balls and strikes, and he is one of my favorite under umpires because of his consistently large strike zone. The under is 5-0 in the Rangers last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in Darvish's last 4 starts following a quality start in his last outing. The under is 4-0 in Darvish's last 4 starts in game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in the Athletics last 4 games. The under is 3-0-1 in Parker's last 4 starts against Texas. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. In all, a 24-0 angle backs this play. Take the under big! |
U.S. Open betting: Nadal vs. Robredo in all-Spanish showdown
By JAYPRIMETOWN
The U.S. Open is entering the late stages of the tournament with the contenders separating themselves from the pretenders. Day 10 of the tournament is highlighted by quarterfinal action.
Rafael Nadal (-3,300) vs. Tommy Robredo (+1,400)
This is an excellent quarterfinal between the hottest player in men's tennis Rafael Nadal and the man who knocked off Roger Federer, Tommy Robredo. In an all-Spanish affair, Robredo has a strong record at the US Open (30-12) but this is his first quarterfinal appearance in Flushing Meadows. Nadal dropped a set to Phillip Kohlschreiber, but has not lost a match on hard courts this year.
Robredo has proven to be a warrior and is very tough in five-set matches, but Nadal's form is at a different level right now. Nadal has won 48 of his last 50 matches on all surfaces. It would take the match of his life to beat Nadal Wednesday and that's not going to happen.
By JAYPRIMETOWN
The U.S. Open is entering the late stages of the tournament with the contenders separating themselves from the pretenders. Day 10 of the tournament is highlighted by quarterfinal action.
Rafael Nadal (-3,300) vs. Tommy Robredo (+1,400)
This is an excellent quarterfinal between the hottest player in men's tennis Rafael Nadal and the man who knocked off Roger Federer, Tommy Robredo. In an all-Spanish affair, Robredo has a strong record at the US Open (30-12) but this is his first quarterfinal appearance in Flushing Meadows. Nadal dropped a set to Phillip Kohlschreiber, but has not lost a match on hard courts this year.
Robredo has proven to be a warrior and is very tough in five-set matches, but Nadal's form is at a different level right now. Nadal has won 48 of his last 50 matches on all surfaces. It would take the match of his life to beat Nadal Wednesday and that's not going to happen.
Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Sep 04, 2013
N.Y. Mets @ ATLANTA
N.Y. Mets +134 over ATLANTA
12:10 PM EST. The Braves keep on winning but it’s not because of their offense. Atlanta has scored just 50 runs over its past 15 games. If you take away the 13 runs they put up in one game against Dice-K, that number drops to 37 runs in 14 games, which would the major’s worst mark over that 14-game stretch. The Braves have scored three runs or fewer in 11 of those past 14 games and many of them came against some very average starters. The Braves have been winning because of some outstanding starting pitching but they do not have that luxury today. Atlanta is Kameron Loe’s third team this season. He’s a 31-year-old career swingman that has appeared in 313 MLB games and has started just 47. This year he pitched for Seattle and the Cubbies before being shipped to the Braves and he’s appeared in just 13 games, all as a reliever. In 17.2 innings, Loe has been tagged for 28 hits (.467 oppBA) has walked seven and has posted a 1.98 WHIP. It’s a small sample size and Loe’s xERA was under 4 each of the three previous seasons so there's at least a possibility that he could give Atlanta some good innings. However, that possibility is not enough to warrant being this price against the Dillon Gee and the Mets. Atlanta is on cruise control, this is a day game after a night game and that usually means many veteran Braves’ hitters will get a day off here.
The numbers told us Dillon Gee was hideous in April and May and the Mets right-hander found himself on the waiver wire in many fantasy leagues but Gee has staged a 180-degree turnaround from June 1 on. The two-run drop in ERA from first to second half has a lot to do with things outside his control - hit% and strand%. Not only have fewer balls in play been dropping for hits, but fewer fly balls have been leaving the park. Gee possesses outstanding control, a decent strikeout rate, a groundball bias profile and a 2.31 ERA over his last five starts. This is a decent spot for he and the Mets to get out of town with one win in this series. Kameron Loe is grossly overpriced here because he throws for the Braves but Atlanta may not care much about this game with a seven-game trip on deck after this one.
Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)
Chicago @ N.Y. YANKEES
Chicago (5 inns) +167 over N.Y. YANKEES
After watching the White Sox blow a 4-1 lead in the eighth last night, we can’t feel comfortable playing them for the full game but we sure can feel comfortable taking back a price like this in the first five frames. For one, the Yankees have the Red Sox coming in tomorrow night for a season defining four-game set and that makes this one a look-ahead game. Additionally C.C. Sabathia is running on fumes. After years of consistent production, Sabathia has seen his ERA bloat above 4.00 for the first time since 2005 and close to 5.00 (4.91) over 183 innings. Sabathia’s skills have shown a serious deterioration over the past three months, which is highlighted by an unsightly 28% line-drive rate over that span. Another sign of trouble is that Sabathia walked just 38 batters in his first 145 frames this season but has walked 15 over his past 31 innings. C.C. Sabathia is a pitcher in trouble.
Erik Johnson has put up exceptional numbers in just his second full season and has been awarded a September call-up. He figures to be a significant competitor for a 2014 rotation spot and gets the call today in the Bronx against the Yankees. How’s that for one’s first major-league start? Johnson has only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his 24 starts this season coupled with a 131/40 K/BB ratio over 142 IP. He is a physical pitcher (6'3, 235) with a power build and aggressive demeanor and approach on the mound. Johnson has shown improvement in both his repertoire and pitch sequencing this year, and attacks hitters with a heavy 90-96 mph fastball, solid slider, curveball, and an improving change-up. He pounds the lower half of the zone inducing lots of groundballs, and his slider has become a reliable swing-and-miss out pitch. Johnson does not project as a #1 or #2 starter, but a very dependable #3 or #4 who can provide lots of innings with a good number of strikeouts and a solid ERA. Over 236.1 innings at the minor league level, Johnson posted a 2.21 ERA and averaged 8.3 K’s per 9 innings to go along with a stellar 1.08 WHIP. At Charlotte (AAA), Johnson started 10 games and went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and a .209 oppBA in 57.1 frames. He also allowed just one jack in those 57.1 innings. Backing a rookie always comes with risk but this rookie appears to have great poise and confidence and it sure doesn’t hurt that they Yankees have never seen him and have bigger fish to fry beginning tomorrow. Price and situation dictates this one.
Our Pick
Chicago (5 inns) +167 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.34)
San Francisco @ SAN DIEGO
San Francisco +101 over SAN DIEGO
Regardless of outcome, we’re absolutely going with the best of it here by backing Tim Lincecum and the Giants at a price against Eric Stults and the Padres. This one is actually a pitching mismatch and it’s not in the Padres favor. At the age of 32 last year, Stults went 8-3 with a 2.91 in 99 innings for the White Sox and Padres. A late bloomer? Not exactly says his 4.42 MLB xERA. Stults’ command was marginal and he benefited from favorable hit and strand percentages. This year is much of the same, only his xERA of 5.10 over his last 20 starts is even worse than his career xERA. Stults’ 3.81 ERA is all smoke and mirrors. His WHIP on the year is an acceptable 1.26 but over his last 20 starts it’s at an unacceptable 1.47 clip. Stults’ groundball rate isn’t even decent at just 37%. Eric Stults is like Barry Zito, Bartolo Colon and a few others that can get lucky from time to time and pick up some wins. Stults’ is just 8-12 this year with just 14 of his 28 starts being of the pure quality variety. The fact that he’s favored here over Lincecum is like Barry Zito being favored over Clayton Kershaw. Ok, well, maybe that’s a stretch but you get the picture.
Tim Lincecum took us back a few years with his dominating skill set in July: 12.4 K’s per 9 IP, 47% groundball rate and dominating start after dominating start. Only the skills of Matt Harvey were better than Lincecum’s in July. Lincecum's 4.50 ERA would have been a lot lower had he not been victimized by an extremely high 23% hr/f. We can no longer count on consistency from him because his last 10 months say so but let us say this. Lincecum is a free agent at the end of the year and this last month could go a long way in determining his market value. This last month is as important to Lincecum as pitching in the World Series so you can expect him to bring it all here. If this one loses, so be it but we’re suggesting you do not miss this one because it has a much greater chance of winning than it does of losing.
Our Pick
San Francisco +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)
Baltimore @ CLEVELAND
Baltimore +114 over CLEVELAND
Be careful about betting Zach McAllister against the Orioles. There's a pretty wide gap between his surface ERA (3.81) and xERA (4.51) due to a low 6% hr/f on the season. Given McAllister's fly-ball tendencies (42% FB%), the long balls could be flying this time around against a Baltimore team leading baseball in HR’s. Earlier in the year, we mentioned that there could be something interesting about McAllister and an upside projection of a 3.50 ERA was noted. Even after missing six weeks with a finger sprain, McAllister has come close to that mark but hasn’t made many major gains at all. McAllister’s strikeout rate climb is over and outside of 2011, his control has been stagnant. His xERA shows he’s not really made any improvements; it's the high strand% and low hr/f that are deflating his 3.81 ERA. McAllister’s 41%/12% dominant start/disaster start split with a bunch of very “blah” performances in between reveal just how volatile and untrustworthy he really is.
Zach Britton is also risky. He’s made just six starts this year for the O’s and went 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA over 35 innings. Last year, Britton went 5-3 with a 5.07 ERA in 60 IP at Baltimore. Remnants of his 2011 shoulder injury shelved him until July last year and then he pitched brilliantly or dreadfully from start to start. This sinkerballer induces tons of groundballs, strikes out some and walks too many but has he ever been pain free? Health will define his value and right now he says he feels great. In any event, the big difference in this game is that the Orioles are a pooch and their offense is scoring a lot more runs than the Indians’ offense. Perhaps, just perhaps, Britton comes up with one of his gems. Overlay.
Our Pick
Baltimore +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)
Today's Free Picks for Sep 04, 2013
N.Y. Mets +134 over ATLANTA
12:10 PM EST. The Braves keep on winning but it’s not because of their offense. Atlanta has scored just 50 runs over its past 15 games. If you take away the 13 runs they put up in one game against Dice-K, that number drops to 37 runs in 14 games, which would the major’s worst mark over that 14-game stretch. The Braves have scored three runs or fewer in 11 of those past 14 games and many of them came against some very average starters. The Braves have been winning because of some outstanding starting pitching but they do not have that luxury today. Atlanta is Kameron Loe’s third team this season. He’s a 31-year-old career swingman that has appeared in 313 MLB games and has started just 47. This year he pitched for Seattle and the Cubbies before being shipped to the Braves and he’s appeared in just 13 games, all as a reliever. In 17.2 innings, Loe has been tagged for 28 hits (.467 oppBA) has walked seven and has posted a 1.98 WHIP. It’s a small sample size and Loe’s xERA was under 4 each of the three previous seasons so there's at least a possibility that he could give Atlanta some good innings. However, that possibility is not enough to warrant being this price against the Dillon Gee and the Mets. Atlanta is on cruise control, this is a day game after a night game and that usually means many veteran Braves’ hitters will get a day off here.
The numbers told us Dillon Gee was hideous in April and May and the Mets right-hander found himself on the waiver wire in many fantasy leagues but Gee has staged a 180-degree turnaround from June 1 on. The two-run drop in ERA from first to second half has a lot to do with things outside his control - hit% and strand%. Not only have fewer balls in play been dropping for hits, but fewer fly balls have been leaving the park. Gee possesses outstanding control, a decent strikeout rate, a groundball bias profile and a 2.31 ERA over his last five starts. This is a decent spot for he and the Mets to get out of town with one win in this series. Kameron Loe is grossly overpriced here because he throws for the Braves but Atlanta may not care much about this game with a seven-game trip on deck after this one.
Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)
Chicago (5 inns) +167 over N.Y. YANKEES
After watching the White Sox blow a 4-1 lead in the eighth last night, we can’t feel comfortable playing them for the full game but we sure can feel comfortable taking back a price like this in the first five frames. For one, the Yankees have the Red Sox coming in tomorrow night for a season defining four-game set and that makes this one a look-ahead game. Additionally C.C. Sabathia is running on fumes. After years of consistent production, Sabathia has seen his ERA bloat above 4.00 for the first time since 2005 and close to 5.00 (4.91) over 183 innings. Sabathia’s skills have shown a serious deterioration over the past three months, which is highlighted by an unsightly 28% line-drive rate over that span. Another sign of trouble is that Sabathia walked just 38 batters in his first 145 frames this season but has walked 15 over his past 31 innings. C.C. Sabathia is a pitcher in trouble.
Erik Johnson has put up exceptional numbers in just his second full season and has been awarded a September call-up. He figures to be a significant competitor for a 2014 rotation spot and gets the call today in the Bronx against the Yankees. How’s that for one’s first major-league start? Johnson has only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his 24 starts this season coupled with a 131/40 K/BB ratio over 142 IP. He is a physical pitcher (6'3, 235) with a power build and aggressive demeanor and approach on the mound. Johnson has shown improvement in both his repertoire and pitch sequencing this year, and attacks hitters with a heavy 90-96 mph fastball, solid slider, curveball, and an improving change-up. He pounds the lower half of the zone inducing lots of groundballs, and his slider has become a reliable swing-and-miss out pitch. Johnson does not project as a #1 or #2 starter, but a very dependable #3 or #4 who can provide lots of innings with a good number of strikeouts and a solid ERA. Over 236.1 innings at the minor league level, Johnson posted a 2.21 ERA and averaged 8.3 K’s per 9 innings to go along with a stellar 1.08 WHIP. At Charlotte (AAA), Johnson started 10 games and went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and a .209 oppBA in 57.1 frames. He also allowed just one jack in those 57.1 innings. Backing a rookie always comes with risk but this rookie appears to have great poise and confidence and it sure doesn’t hurt that they Yankees have never seen him and have bigger fish to fry beginning tomorrow. Price and situation dictates this one.
Our Pick
Chicago (5 inns) +167 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.34)
San Francisco +101 over SAN DIEGO
Regardless of outcome, we’re absolutely going with the best of it here by backing Tim Lincecum and the Giants at a price against Eric Stults and the Padres. This one is actually a pitching mismatch and it’s not in the Padres favor. At the age of 32 last year, Stults went 8-3 with a 2.91 in 99 innings for the White Sox and Padres. A late bloomer? Not exactly says his 4.42 MLB xERA. Stults’ command was marginal and he benefited from favorable hit and strand percentages. This year is much of the same, only his xERA of 5.10 over his last 20 starts is even worse than his career xERA. Stults’ 3.81 ERA is all smoke and mirrors. His WHIP on the year is an acceptable 1.26 but over his last 20 starts it’s at an unacceptable 1.47 clip. Stults’ groundball rate isn’t even decent at just 37%. Eric Stults is like Barry Zito, Bartolo Colon and a few others that can get lucky from time to time and pick up some wins. Stults’ is just 8-12 this year with just 14 of his 28 starts being of the pure quality variety. The fact that he’s favored here over Lincecum is like Barry Zito being favored over Clayton Kershaw. Ok, well, maybe that’s a stretch but you get the picture.
Tim Lincecum took us back a few years with his dominating skill set in July: 12.4 K’s per 9 IP, 47% groundball rate and dominating start after dominating start. Only the skills of Matt Harvey were better than Lincecum’s in July. Lincecum's 4.50 ERA would have been a lot lower had he not been victimized by an extremely high 23% hr/f. We can no longer count on consistency from him because his last 10 months say so but let us say this. Lincecum is a free agent at the end of the year and this last month could go a long way in determining his market value. This last month is as important to Lincecum as pitching in the World Series so you can expect him to bring it all here. If this one loses, so be it but we’re suggesting you do not miss this one because it has a much greater chance of winning than it does of losing.
Our Pick
San Francisco +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)
Baltimore +114 over CLEVELAND
Be careful about betting Zach McAllister against the Orioles. There's a pretty wide gap between his surface ERA (3.81) and xERA (4.51) due to a low 6% hr/f on the season. Given McAllister's fly-ball tendencies (42% FB%), the long balls could be flying this time around against a Baltimore team leading baseball in HR’s. Earlier in the year, we mentioned that there could be something interesting about McAllister and an upside projection of a 3.50 ERA was noted. Even after missing six weeks with a finger sprain, McAllister has come close to that mark but hasn’t made many major gains at all. McAllister’s strikeout rate climb is over and outside of 2011, his control has been stagnant. His xERA shows he’s not really made any improvements; it's the high strand% and low hr/f that are deflating his 3.81 ERA. McAllister’s 41%/12% dominant start/disaster start split with a bunch of very “blah” performances in between reveal just how volatile and untrustworthy he really is.
Zach Britton is also risky. He’s made just six starts this year for the O’s and went 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA over 35 innings. Last year, Britton went 5-3 with a 5.07 ERA in 60 IP at Baltimore. Remnants of his 2011 shoulder injury shelved him until July last year and then he pitched brilliantly or dreadfully from start to start. This sinkerballer induces tons of groundballs, strikes out some and walks too many but has he ever been pain free? Health will define his value and right now he says he feels great. In any event, the big difference in this game is that the Orioles are a pooch and their offense is scoring a lot more runs than the Indians’ offense. Perhaps, just perhaps, Britton comes up with one of his gems. Overlay.
Our Pick
Baltimore +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | -3.64 |
| Last 30 Days | 32 | 44 | 0.00 | -8.85 |
| Season to Date | 204 | 206 | 0.00 | +74.08 |
