Make it Macedonia
Ben Coley previews Friday's World Cup qualifiers and fancies Macedonia to beat Wales in Skopje.
Macedonia can celebrate victory over Wales
England welcome Moldova to Wembley on Friday night in what will be a straightforward win, one which serves as nothing more than a warm-up for next week's trip to face Ukraine.
Roy Hodgson has made all the right noises, ordering his squad to avoid the type of complacency you've just read in my opening gambit, but that's what he has to do and we're able to remain firmly stationed in reality, which dictates a regulation success for the hosts.
Unfortunately, games such as these are about as useful for betting as they are for restoring confidence in Joe Hart's goalkeeping game. In fact, they're less so, because at least Hart will be able to boast a clean sheet when the final whistle is blown.
Speaking of clean sheets, for the heavy hitter who can get on with Ladbrokes their 9/20 about England winning to nil is too big. Other firms offer 1/3 or 4/11, a price which may still be generous about the hosts adding to their 5-0 victory in the reverse.
Moldova, to their credit, have discovered a scoring touch of late and even managed a goal at Ukraine, where they held firm for an hour before ultimately losing 2-1.
Given the fact that Ukraine have held England to a draw and Moldova followed that effort with a point at home to Poland, there's evidence sufficient to build a case for them causing some sort of problem for Hodgson's side.
However, England have never conceded against Moldova and I don't expect them to here. The question is simply how many, and while I'd lean towards lower over higher, it really comes down to how hard England push themselves and amounts to little more than guesswork.
Moving on, I can't help but feel the 5/4 quoted about Macedonia beating Wales is worth a small interest.
The hosts are a solid outfit and represent a real test for Chris Coleman's side. Just took at their record against England in recent years, a barometer we can accurately gauge - they've managed two draws and two one-goal defeats from four meetings.
More recently, Macedonia performed with great credit in two games against a highly talented Belgium side and secured a confidence-boosting friendly win against an in-form Bulgaria outfit in a friendly last time.
They've also drawn at Scotland and lost by just a goal in Russia and Ireland, so this is a side capable of competing and they just look a shade better than Wales despite currently sitting bottom of the group.
Coleman is delighted to have headline man Gareth Bale in the squad but confesses there's 'no chance' he can play 90 minutes, and I just wonder whether he might sit on the bench here in favour of a start against Serbia in Wales next week.
Either way, this is a player who has essentially missed most of pre-season and whose preparation for this fixture has been at best poor, so while his commitment to the cause is to be admired his impact against Macedonia may be insignificant.
Wales have already lost 6-1 away to Serbia and 2-0 at Croatia, and with Joe Allen and Neil Taylor already missing and Aaron Ramsey not 100 per cent, they may struggle in Skopje.
Scotland are already resigned to the fact they won't be in Brazil for next year's World Cup but we can expect them to give their best against Belgium.
The visitors have a wealth of attacking talent and have been popular each-way movers in the outright tournament market as their finest, among whom Eden Hazard, Marouane Fellaini and Christian Benteke stand out, continue to grace the Premier League with their brilliance.
Scotland showed in a friendly against England recently that they're not without ability, although clearly that friendly was of more significance than this qualifier.
Many will turn to 8/11 chances Belgium as their banker on the coupon and it's hard to argue with that, as there is a gulf in class between these sides and although they had to be patient, Belgium were value for their 2-0 win in the reverse.
I was keen to get with Northern Ireland in some way ahead of Portugal's visit, but I'm afraid the bookmakers aren't giving anything away.
The hosts have already drawn in Porto and gained a phenomenal victory over Russia last time, while Portugal have previous for sloppy away days as draws against Israel and Bosnia in recent years demonstrate. Indeed, they only scraped past Luxembourg 2-1 a year ago and that having fallen behind.
However, 5/2 about Northern Ireland and the draw just isn't quite big enough to tempt me and perhaps the value is with Portugal to win by a single goal at 5/2 .
Another to consider is in-form Helder Postiga to find the net at 11/8. He scored Portugal's goal in the reverse, has three goals in his last two games at club level including a brace against Barcelona, and has been on the scoresheet in five of Portugal's seven qualifiers so far.
The final game involving one of the home nations is perhaps the most competitive, with Ireland playing host to Sweden.
This is an absolutely massive week for Giovanni Trapattoni's side, who sit fourth but level on points with both second-placed Austria and third-placed Sweden in a Group C which Germany are predictably dominating.
Ireland go to Vienna to take on Austria next week and two wins from these two games would put them in an extremely strong position.
They face a dangerous Sweden side capable of running riot, but a 0-0 draw in the reverse shows what Ireland are capable of too and bar a 6-1 thumping by Germany they've performed with great credit so far.
I believe that Sweden are the better side at their best but that Ireland are more likely to produce, so if pushed it'd be the hosts in a game which sees both sides priced up at around the 7/4 mark.
It's certainly one which should make for entertaining viewing but as far as a bet goes, our focus is on Macedonia.
- By: Ben Coley
- Last Updated: September 4 2013, 11:46 BST
Ben Coley previews Friday's World Cup qualifiers and fancies Macedonia to beat Wales in Skopje.
Macedonia can celebrate victory over Wales
England welcome Moldova to Wembley on Friday night in what will be a straightforward win, one which serves as nothing more than a warm-up for next week's trip to face Ukraine.
Roy Hodgson has made all the right noises, ordering his squad to avoid the type of complacency you've just read in my opening gambit, but that's what he has to do and we're able to remain firmly stationed in reality, which dictates a regulation success for the hosts.
- 2pts FYR Macedonia to beat Wales at 5/4 -
Unfortunately, games such as these are about as useful for betting as they are for restoring confidence in Joe Hart's goalkeeping game. In fact, they're less so, because at least Hart will be able to boast a clean sheet when the final whistle is blown.
Speaking of clean sheets, for the heavy hitter who can get on with Ladbrokes their 9/20 about England winning to nil is too big. Other firms offer 1/3 or 4/11, a price which may still be generous about the hosts adding to their 5-0 victory in the reverse.
Moldova, to their credit, have discovered a scoring touch of late and even managed a goal at Ukraine, where they held firm for an hour before ultimately losing 2-1.
Given the fact that Ukraine have held England to a draw and Moldova followed that effort with a point at home to Poland, there's evidence sufficient to build a case for them causing some sort of problem for Hodgson's side.
However, England have never conceded against Moldova and I don't expect them to here. The question is simply how many, and while I'd lean towards lower over higher, it really comes down to how hard England push themselves and amounts to little more than guesswork.
Moving on, I can't help but feel the 5/4 quoted about Macedonia beating Wales is worth a small interest.
The hosts are a solid outfit and represent a real test for Chris Coleman's side. Just took at their record against England in recent years, a barometer we can accurately gauge - they've managed two draws and two one-goal defeats from four meetings.
More recently, Macedonia performed with great credit in two games against a highly talented Belgium side and secured a confidence-boosting friendly win against an in-form Bulgaria outfit in a friendly last time.
They've also drawn at Scotland and lost by just a goal in Russia and Ireland, so this is a side capable of competing and they just look a shade better than Wales despite currently sitting bottom of the group.
Coleman is delighted to have headline man Gareth Bale in the squad but confesses there's 'no chance' he can play 90 minutes, and I just wonder whether he might sit on the bench here in favour of a start against Serbia in Wales next week.
Either way, this is a player who has essentially missed most of pre-season and whose preparation for this fixture has been at best poor, so while his commitment to the cause is to be admired his impact against Macedonia may be insignificant.
Wales have already lost 6-1 away to Serbia and 2-0 at Croatia, and with Joe Allen and Neil Taylor already missing and Aaron Ramsey not 100 per cent, they may struggle in Skopje.
Scotland are already resigned to the fact they won't be in Brazil for next year's World Cup but we can expect them to give their best against Belgium.
The visitors have a wealth of attacking talent and have been popular each-way movers in the outright tournament market as their finest, among whom Eden Hazard, Marouane Fellaini and Christian Benteke stand out, continue to grace the Premier League with their brilliance.
Scotland showed in a friendly against England recently that they're not without ability, although clearly that friendly was of more significance than this qualifier.
Many will turn to 8/11 chances Belgium as their banker on the coupon and it's hard to argue with that, as there is a gulf in class between these sides and although they had to be patient, Belgium were value for their 2-0 win in the reverse.
I was keen to get with Northern Ireland in some way ahead of Portugal's visit, but I'm afraid the bookmakers aren't giving anything away.
The hosts have already drawn in Porto and gained a phenomenal victory over Russia last time, while Portugal have previous for sloppy away days as draws against Israel and Bosnia in recent years demonstrate. Indeed, they only scraped past Luxembourg 2-1 a year ago and that having fallen behind.
However, 5/2 about Northern Ireland and the draw just isn't quite big enough to tempt me and perhaps the value is with Portugal to win by a single goal at 5/2 .
Another to consider is in-form Helder Postiga to find the net at 11/8. He scored Portugal's goal in the reverse, has three goals in his last two games at club level including a brace against Barcelona, and has been on the scoresheet in five of Portugal's seven qualifiers so far.
The final game involving one of the home nations is perhaps the most competitive, with Ireland playing host to Sweden.
This is an absolutely massive week for Giovanni Trapattoni's side, who sit fourth but level on points with both second-placed Austria and third-placed Sweden in a Group C which Germany are predictably dominating.
Ireland go to Vienna to take on Austria next week and two wins from these two games would put them in an extremely strong position.
They face a dangerous Sweden side capable of running riot, but a 0-0 draw in the reverse shows what Ireland are capable of too and bar a 6-1 thumping by Germany they've performed with great credit so far.
I believe that Sweden are the better side at their best but that Ireland are more likely to produce, so if pushed it'd be the hosts in a game which sees both sides priced up at around the 7/4 mark.
It's certainly one which should make for entertaining viewing but as far as a bet goes, our focus is on Macedonia.
