THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (95-61) at N.Y. Mets (87-70)
Oliver Perez (10-7, 4.10 ERA) takes the mound for his most important start of the season as he tries to get the Mets one step closer to the playoffs with a win over the Cubs, who will hand the ball to ace Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.77).
Behind another outstanding pitching performance from ace Johan Santana, New York snapped a three-game losing skid with Tuesday?s 6-2 victory over Chicago. The Mets pulled to within 1? games of the Phillies in the N.L. Central while remaining one game ahead of the Brewers in the wild-card race. Jerry Manuel?s club is on runs of 25-12 at home, 5-1 against the N.L. Central and 20-7 when playing on Wednesday.
Chicago, which locked up its second straight division title on Saturday and clinched home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs with Monday?s 9-5 win over the Mets, is on streaks of 9-3 overall, 20-7 on the road and 11-5 against the N.L. East. Also, with Zambrano on the hill, Lou Pineilla?s squad is on runs of 7-3 overall, 36-15 on the road and 5-0 versus the N.L. East.
The Cubs are now 3-1 against the Mets this season, with their three wins coming by the combined score of 24-7. However, New York is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings at Shea Stadium (5-1 in the last six).
Zambrano delivered the Cubs? first no-hitter since 1972 back on Sept. 14, blanking the Astros 5-0 in a neutral-site game in Milwaukee. However, he followed that up with his worst start of the season Friday, giving up eight runs (all earned) in 1 2/3 innings, losing 12-6 to the Cardinals at home. Big Z is 7-4 with a 3.77 ERA on the road, with Chicago winning his last four starts on the highway.
Perez has given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine outings, with New York going 7-2 during this stretch, including Friday?s 9-5 win at Atlanta. The southpaw is 4-2 with a 4.27 ERA in 15 starts at Shea, nine of which the Mets have won.
Zambrano is 4-1 with a 2.91 ERA in seven appearances (six starts) against the Mets, including a 7-1 home victory on April 21 when he gave up just the one run on five hits in seven innings. Meanwhile, Perez is 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA in seven starts against the Cubs, the most recent coming in 2005 when he was with the Pirates.
The over is 7-0-1 in Perez?s last eight starts overall, 4-0 in his last four at home, 8-2 in Zambrano?s last 10 overall, 3-1 in his last four as a visitor, 4-1 in his last five against New York and 11-5 in his last 16 against the N.L. East.
The over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 head-to-head clashes between the Cubs and Mets, including 8-1 in the last nine at Shea. The over is also on streaks of 12-5 for the Cubs against the East, 6-1 for the Mets overall, 14-5-1 for the Mets at home and 37-17-3 for the Mets versus the N.L. Central
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (86-70) at Minnesota Twins (85-72)
The two teams atop the standings in the A.L. Central continue their most important series of the season at the Metrodome, with the White Sox pitting veteran Mark Buehrle (14-11, 3.87) against Minnesota youngster Nick Blackburn (10-10, 4.15).
The Twins hammered Chicago 9-3 in Tuesday?s series opener to cut their deficit in the A.L. Central to 1? games. Despite the crucial victory, Minnesota is still just 3-6 in its last nine overall, but Ron Gardenhire?s club does sport positive trends of 46-20 at home and 17-4 in the dome against lefty starters.
Chicago is in the midst of a 10-game road trip that has seen the team go 3-5 so far, and the White Sox have now lost 10 of their last 15 games on the highway. On the bright side, the Pale Hose are on positive runs of 5-2 within the division and 9-2 on Wednesdays, but they?ve dropped 21 of their last 28 on artificial turf.
The home team has dominated this rivalry in 2008, winning 13 of the 16 meetings, with the Twins going 6-1 hosting Chicago.
Buehrle has come up huge in September, delivering four straight quality starts (two at home, two on the road), going 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA after going 3-2 with a 5.86 ERA in August. The veteran lefty was terrific in his last two starts, both on the road (five earned runs in 12 innings with eight strikeouts and one walk), but he?s still 4-9 with a 5.14 ERA on foreign soil as opposed to 10-3 with a 2.74 ERA in Chicago.
Like Buehrle, Blackburn sports a dramatic home-road split, going 7-3 with a 2.92 ERA in the Metrodome, compared with 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA on the highway. His last two starts came in Baltimore and Tampa Bay, and the lefty got punished, allowing six runs in each outing while lasting a total of 5 1/3 innings, moving his season ERA from 3.67 to 4.15. Finally, Minnesota is 9-4 when Blackburn toils inside the dome, but 5-13 on the road.
Buehrle is 21-12 with a 3.85 ERA in 36 appearances (34 starts) against the Twins, but this year he?s 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA versus Minnesota in three outings. As for Blackburn, he?s faced the White Sox four times this year, going 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA. Not surprisingly, the one win came in his lone home outing versus Chicago, a 4-3 victory way back on April 30.
The over is 8-1 in the last eight meetings between these rivals (4-1 in Minnesota). Also, the over for the Twins is on runs of 6-1 overall, 9-1-1 against winning teams, 8-3-1 in divisional battles, 10-3-1 on turf and 4-0-1 when Blackburn battles an A.L. Central foe. Also, the over is 5-1-1 in Buehrle?s last seven outings overall
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER