Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Aug 07, 2013
Oakland @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI -1½ +181 over Oakland
12:35 PM EST. Come August the pretenders begin to fade and that’s precisely what we’re going to do against the A’s. Oakland somehow managed to post one of the best records in the league in the first four months of the season but it was a luck-driven run in that every bounce went its way. They won games with poor hitting and average starting pitching but the clock has struck midnight now. Oakland has lost five of its past six games. True to form, the A’s have scored 10 lousy runs over that six game stretch and they’ve scored one run over their past two games. The A’s are batting .199 over their past six and things don’t figure to get easier here against Homer Bailey. Bailey has blossomed into a legit ace in this year. After years of frustrating his manager and those that pay him due to his slow starts and hot finishes, Bailey has posted outstanding skills every month this season. Those skills have been driven by consistent dominance. Bailey even gained one mph on his fastball in July, which averaged 94.8 mph that month, and his swinging strike rate increased by 1.4% to a top-tier 12.9%. Bailey has whiffed 145 batters in 144 innings while issuing just 32 walks. Bailey is the straight goods while the A’s are loaded with .240 hitters and that’s when they’re going good. Right now they are not.
Bartolo Colon has pitched at home in 11 of his past 13 starts. Over that span, Colon has a strand rate of 90%, which is the highest mark in the majors. Overall, Colon’s strand rate is 82%, which is also one of the highest rates in the business. Colon has 78 K’s in 148 innings. He has survived with pinpoint control and balls being hit right at people. This park is unforgiving to pitchers that throw fastballs 87% of the time and that pitch to contact. Over his last five starts, Colon has posted a 1.57 ERA but he has an xERA over that span of 5.02. Give Colon credit for a 14-3 record and 2.50 ERA but this guy has the skills of pitchers that have won five times in 22 starts and just like the team he pitches for, his luck cannot continue over an extended period of time. Expect the Reds to put up a crooked number here against this 41-year old, hamburger loving imposter.
Our Pick
CINCINNATI -1½ +181 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.62)
Chicago @ PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +130 over Chicago
The Phillies went off for nine runs last night and that coincided with the return of Domonic Brown to the Phillies lineup. Brown batted cleanup and contributed with 2 RBI’s. One win does wonders to team morale and the Phillies could easily go off again here against Travis Wood. Wood remains a starter with a lot of downside potential from his 3.05 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has been helped by a 22% hit rate and 6% hr/f. Wood’s aggregate base skills do not support a sub-4.00 ERA. His xERA is 4.37 but over his past five starts that xERA is 6.22. Wood has walked 16 batters over his past 28 frames and over that span he has a 1.73 WHIP. He also has an ugly 33%/24%/43% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate this season. That fly-ball bias profile does not bode well at this park. Wood's command level continues to hover around pedestrian levels, which make him only marginally worthy. His fly ball rate is why he struggled with HRs last season and it’s likely to catch up to him again. Wood's skills suggests he has work to do before becoming a reliable starter and he's more likely to erode than explode.
The Cubbies have dropped five in a row and eight of nine. They’ve also been shutout in two of their past three and they don’t figure to get right-sided here against Cole Hamels. Hamels has four wins in 23 starts, which is completely ludicrous when you consider 16 pure quality starts in 23 attempts and zero pure disaster starts last season. Cole Hamels is a true ace because of his outstanding command, high strikeout rate and low 18% line-drive rate. He has been without question, the unluckiest starter in the majors this season in terms of wins and losses but this is still one of the best skilled starters in the game and we get a great opportunity to take back a tag (laying runs) in a huge pitching mismatch in our favor. Cole Hamel’s metrics are not off.
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)
Texas @ L.A. ANGELS
Texas/L.A. ANGELS over 8 +107
Two former aces are anything but this season but their reputations have this total too low. These two clubs combined to score 11 runs last night with two solid pitchers on the hill in Yu Darvish and Garrett Richards. The two going today, Tommy Hanson and Alexi Ogando are nowhere near the skill levels of the pair that went yesterday. Ogando did everything Texas could ask in 2011 starting pitching conversion, but then ended up without a rotation chair for all of 2012 despite starters dropping like flies around him. Why? The Rangers knew he was a “one-year” wonder and they were right. Ogando has horrible skiils. He walks too many and strikes out few. Over his last three starts, covering just 14 frames, Ogando has seven walks and four K’s. He also has an alarming 34%/52% groundball/fly-ball split, not to mention a 1.68 WHIP over three starts since his return from the DL on July 23. Ogando is filling in right now until the Rangers get some bodies back but should this team make the playoffs, you will not see him starting and you’re not likely to see him relieving either because he really is that bad.
Tommy Hanson isn’t much better. Hanson’s partially torn rotator cuff last season led to a new delivery, which led to his worst MLB results and nothing has changed this season. In 12 starts this year, Hanson’s quality start/disaster start split is 33%/67%. In just 63 innings, Hanson has walked 25 and struck out 49. Much like Ogando, he has a horrible 34%/43% groundball/fly-ball split and you can also throw in a disturbing 37% line-drive rate over his last five starts. Overall, Hanson has a 1.54 WHIP, to go along with a 5.29 ERA and both marks are supported by his awful skills. Combined, these two starters today have some of the worst skills in the game. This market has this total in the wrong range and we’re on it.
Our Pick
Texas/L.A. ANGELS over 8 +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)
Atlanta @ WASHINGTON
Atlanta +111 over WASHINGTON
The Braves’ winning streak is up to 12 games after they defeated both Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez over the past two days. They take a step down in class here against Jordan Zimmermann, a pitcher who may be suffering from fatigue. In 2009, Zimmermann threw 91 innings and in 2010 he threw just 31. He followed that up with a 161 innings season in 2011 and 196 last year. This season, Zimmermann is up to 147 frames already but over his last five starts he has walked nine batters over 21 innings and has posted a 1.67 WHIP and 7.18 ERA. In his last start, he walked four batters in six innings and these are all warning signs that Zimmermann may be running on fumes. Facing the hottest team in the majors is not good timing for Zimmermann and is sure doesn’t help that his team continues to struggle.
The Nats are in this price range because Kris Medlen has been laboring. That provides us with a buy-low opportunity. Medlen reportedly was close to being ousted from the Atlanta rotation in July. It's a good thing that didn't happen, because a closer look reveals that a 41% hit rate was the primary driver of his 6.41 ERA and 1.84 WHIP that month. Medlen’s high 10.4% swinging strike rate suggests that his strikeout rate was lower than it should have been. Pinpoint control (35 BB in 131 IP), a healthy strikeout rate (102 K’s), tons of groundballs testify to Medlen’s stuff and it says that he’s a great bet to rebound in August. Wrong side favored.
Our Pick
Atlanta +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +1.36 |
| Last 30 Days | 42 | 26 | 0.00 | +51.89 |
| Season to Date | 173 | 163 | 0.00 | +84.29 |
