Dave Essler Wednesday MLB Thoughts
Washington-Atlanta: The very fact that Washington is only -135 with Zimmerman makes me take notice, even with his rough stretch before beating the Brewers. He has simply owned the Braves. Medlen seems to always give it up, and far more so away from Turner Field where the fences are a little further away. He's pitched well against Washington, but to me this one screams "wait for the lineups". With BJ back and McCann and Gattis around, we don't really want Gattis in left because he's a huge liability out there. Patience here for sure.
Cubs-Phillies: Wood has a solid reputation, however, he's really only been able to dominate weaker hitting clubs, for the most part. He'll be a little cheaper after the Dodgers hammered him, but that was a time the Dodgers were hammering everyone, so I might not pay quite so much homage to that. As you'd expect, he's been better away from Wrigley. Hamels has seemingly led in every game and has been let down by the pen, which is now minus two more components. After two very high pitch count games, there's just no chance of laying -150 with the Phillies. Cubs or nothing, and lean under before it hits 7.
Pirates-Fish: I happen to like Koehler. Two problems here are that he too has had tow big pitch count games, and that, coming from the pen, is not something he's used to. I also think Charlie Morton is still Charlie Morton, and like the Fish better against RHP. If Monday's game leaves some clue as to what's going on with the Pirates, I can see taking the Fish RL, if we think they can score. However, I tend to think this total goes to 8 before it goes to 7, and at 7.5 I do lean over here.
Dodgers-Cardinals: Welp, Nolasco goes right back to being the underdog after having his one game as listed favorite against the Cubs. It's not something we've seen too often, being with the Fish, so I really wonder how much pressure is now on the kid. However, the Dodgers have won all four of his road starts since being traded. Downside is that the Cardinals have simply hammered him, so I really can't see taking the Dodgers here. Miller has not looked good in his last two starts, but at home he's been close to unhittable. The only think I don't like is that he hasn't pitched into the 7th inning since the 1st of June, which means trusting the Cardinals bullpen. Pretty steamy in St. Louis right now, so if that total comes to 7.5 I might play the over. I just don't see the pitchers' duel, but without Molina, I do need to see the lineup(s).
Brewers-Cardinals: I suppose Bumgarner is -230 for a reason, but with the Giants done for the year and that potentially anemic offense, there's not really any chance of the RL here at all. I see Narveson listed as pitching for the Brewers on one site and ESPN still lists Gorzellany. If it's the latter, I could see taking the under here, as opposed to having any money on someone coming of the DL.
Toronto-Seattle: Interestingly enough, I can see taking Happ coming off the DL at that price, simply because I like fading the Mariners against lefties and their bullpen just isn't very good. On top of that, Toronto is clearly better against RHP's this season. Since it's a day game, I will indeed wait for the lineup(s), but at -130 they're certainly begging for people to take Harang, and I can't do it.
Cleveland-Detroit: Who was the last team to light up Fister? Yes, indeed, it was the Indians. Probably some extra motivation for Fister here. Kipnis and Brantley have owned him, but the real issue here for me is how long Salazar can pitch, because there's a clear bullpen advantage right now for the Tigers. Perhaps he can pull an Oberholtzer and keep Detroit in check, but I suspect it may be a matter of time (second time through the order) than the Tigers hit him. This could well be a first-five inning bet on the Indians, and I lean to the under.
Boston-Houston: Kyle? OK, I'll do it. I can't bet on Dempster against anyone, and most of the Astros have had at least a couple of at-bats against him. Cosart's looked like the real deal so far, but there's the Astros bullpen. Again, I'm not sure Dempster should be -170 against anyone, and may well go back to the Astros RL again.
Yankees-White Sox: There is simply a slight chance I could take Sabathia at -120, but that would mean betting on the Yankees, who's bullpen has actually been pretty solid of late. And the Yankees are 20-14 against LHP's. (not counting the Tuesday game yet). Santiago is a flyball pitcher who can be a bit wild, so my initial lean is to the Yankees, but perhaps more to the over. I haven't looked at the weather yet, but 7.5 does seem a bit tempting, even with the typical cross breeze in US Cellular this time of year.
Texas-Los Angeles: Ogando has simply not been good and not pitched deep since coming back, and of course the Rangers pen has been a bit suspect. It's always hard to go against the hot team, and the one still in a pennant race, however. But, then there's Hanson, who's a flyball pitcher (benefited from Turner Field) so that makes that side a bit difficult, too. Perhaps BECAUSE of Ogando and what he HAS done, the total is only 8. With either of these bullpens capable of implosion, as well as both starters, 8 may be too low.
Oakland-Cincinnati: Not touching a day game w/the Reds. That'd be two strikes right there.
San Diego-Baltimore: I'd been high on Gonzalez until the Astros beat the shit out of him. And the Royals before that. he doesn't walk many, but can give the long ball up. If only he were left handed we'd be all over San Diego, and still might. But, Stults has had five straight 100+ pitch games, and two of those were over 120 pitches. That cannot be a good thing, and he's appeared to show that wear the last two outings. Brian Roberts back is a big deal for me. I tend to think this stays under, and of course being a day game will wait for lineups.
Tampa Bay-Arizona: Seems like Archer would have been more than -140 to me, especially against Delgado. Although, three of HIS last four games were 100+ pitch outings, and this IS the time of year that really starts to matter. But, Arizona didn't see him last week at the Trop, so maybe this stays under. Rays much better hitting team against LHP. Delgado has NOT been walking people, but the Rays have seen him enough to think they score. On second thought, I may actually like a road favorite here, but with the Rays pen (this IS an NL game, remember) perhaps this does go over the number, even if early money at CRIS forced it to 8 from 8.5. We shall see, but I do see this game pretty well.