Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
MLB Game: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Time: Wednesday 07/30 12:40 PM Eastern
Pick: Washington -153 (moneyline)
The Miami Marlins played as an improved team from a year ago, and have recently caught fire. They have won six straight games as an underdog. That may sound like a hard and difficult path to go against, but over the last 10 years a team that has won six consecutive games as an underdog have met with an ugly fate as they carry a -12.4% ROI if you choose to play on them and go with the hot hand. That rises to -14.3% if they are a dog again, which is the case here. And they are just 1-5 if they are a home dog. The Nationals have been great in the role of a road favorite where they are 57-28 in their last 85. This one goes against the hot team, so play on Washington.
MLB Game: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Time: Wednesday 07/30 12:40 PM Eastern
Pick: Washington -153 (moneyline)
The Miami Marlins played as an improved team from a year ago, and have recently caught fire. They have won six straight games as an underdog. That may sound like a hard and difficult path to go against, but over the last 10 years a team that has won six consecutive games as an underdog have met with an ugly fate as they carry a -12.4% ROI if you choose to play on them and go with the hot hand. That rises to -14.3% if they are a dog again, which is the case here. And they are just 1-5 if they are a home dog. The Nationals have been great in the role of a road favorite where they are 57-28 in their last 85. This one goes against the hot team, so play on Washington.
SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS 376-316-12 YTD
Bonus Play: NY Yankees RL -1.5 +110 vs Texas
Wednesday 7/30 Service Play's
Right when we thought we were going to have the winning night after Oakland came back and covered the RL for us in the 9th the Yanks do the opposite and blow their 4 run lead and only win by 1 losing us the RL. Today is our day to shine and we feel there is a lot of value in these 4 play's. Let's get the sweep today and get back to our winning ways!!!
MLB
NY Mets RL -1.5 +140
Cincinnati RL -1.5 +190
Detroit RL -1.5 -120
Kansas City RL -1.5 +145
Bonus Play: NY Yankees RL -1.5 +110 vs Texas
Wednesday 7/30 Service Play's
Right when we thought we were going to have the winning night after Oakland came back and covered the RL for us in the 9th the Yanks do the opposite and blow their 4 run lead and only win by 1 losing us the RL. Today is our day to shine and we feel there is a lot of value in these 4 play's. Let's get the sweep today and get back to our winning ways!!!
MLB
NY Mets RL -1.5 +140
Cincinnati RL -1.5 +190
Detroit RL -1.5 -120
Kansas City RL -1.5 +145
GC: MLB Play
Hump day Triple pack has the MLB Game of the Week with a 31-1 Power angle, the 5* 95% Road warrior system and a totals system that has won 19 of 22 times. Bonus Plays 19-6 run. MLB Afternoon system Play below.
On Wednesday the MLB System Play is on Oakland. Game 965 at 2:10 eastern. Oakland fit a league wide system that has cashed 11 straight times and plays on road favorites of -140 or more that scored 5 or more runs in their last game if they were a road favorite of -190 or higher and are taking on a team off a loss. The A/s are a solid 11-2 this year as a road favorite off a road win where they scored or more runs. They have also won 5 of 6 as a road favorite from -150 to -175 and are scoring 6 runs per game the past week. In games where the total is 8 to 8.5 they have won 23 of 31. Houston is 16-56 in July the past few years and have dropped 10 of the last 12 vs winning teams. Today they have Keuche on the mound and he has a 1-3 record and 6.23 era vs Oakland. The Athletics counter with J. Hammel who has won 3 of 4 vs Houston with a 1.69 era allowing just 4 runs in 21 innings against them in his last 3 starts. Look for Oakland to take another from Houston. On Wednesday their are 3 Big MLB power system plays up led by the 31-1 MLB Power Angle Game of the Week and a 5* Road warrior 95% system play as well as a 19-3 totals system. Get on now and cash all 3. For the Bonus Play take Oakland. GC
Hump day Triple pack has the MLB Game of the Week with a 31-1 Power angle, the 5* 95% Road warrior system and a totals system that has won 19 of 22 times. Bonus Plays 19-6 run. MLB Afternoon system Play below.
On Wednesday the MLB System Play is on Oakland. Game 965 at 2:10 eastern. Oakland fit a league wide system that has cashed 11 straight times and plays on road favorites of -140 or more that scored 5 or more runs in their last game if they were a road favorite of -190 or higher and are taking on a team off a loss. The A/s are a solid 11-2 this year as a road favorite off a road win where they scored or more runs. They have also won 5 of 6 as a road favorite from -150 to -175 and are scoring 6 runs per game the past week. In games where the total is 8 to 8.5 they have won 23 of 31. Houston is 16-56 in July the past few years and have dropped 10 of the last 12 vs winning teams. Today they have Keuche on the mound and he has a 1-3 record and 6.23 era vs Oakland. The Athletics counter with J. Hammel who has won 3 of 4 vs Houston with a 1.69 era allowing just 4 runs in 21 innings against them in his last 3 starts. Look for Oakland to take another from Houston. On Wednesday their are 3 Big MLB power system plays up led by the 31-1 MLB Power Angle Game of the Week and a 5* Road warrior 95% system play as well as a 19-3 totals system. Get on now and cash all 3. For the Bonus Play take Oakland. GC
Bob Balfe
Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8.5
Buehrle/Workman
Mark Buehrle has been awful in his last few starts giving up a ton of runs while this Bluejays team is scoring a ton of runs. Workman has been subpar as of late and this total really should be higher. I feel like one of these teams has the ability to beat the total themselves. Toronto's bats have been hot and a total under 9 is great value in this spot. Let's just cheer for scoring. Take the Over.
Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8.5
Buehrle/Workman
Mark Buehrle has been awful in his last few starts giving up a ton of runs while this Bluejays team is scoring a ton of runs. Workman has been subpar as of late and this total really should be higher. I feel like one of these teams has the ability to beat the total themselves. Toronto's bats have been hot and a total under 9 is great value in this spot. Let's just cheer for scoring. Take the Over.
Andre Gomes | MLB Money Line
953 ARI (+107) vs 954 CIN
Analysis:
MLB – 953 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 954 Cincinnati Reds
(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs. A. Simon)
Catching Wade Miley against this Reds offense @plus money is a valuable bet IMO, and I’m just pulling the trigger…
I’ve made a play w/ ARI in Miley’s last start that was lost (it wasn’t even close)!
“Wade Miley has been outstanding lately! His stats line in this month says it all: .194 BA / 2.20 FIP / 2.50 xFIP / 26.6% K% & 4.6% BB! Wow! Note that he has faced CHC, SF & ATL in his L3 starts and these 3 teams are pretty decent vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #5, #12 & #7, and still, Miley did pretty well against them! PHI offense is ranked just #23 and they are prone to be K’ed quite a lot (ranked #20 in the season w/ 21.1% K%), so I expect Miley to be decent tonight.”
Bad days happen and I expect him to bounce back today against a CIN offense that is ranked #22 OPS vs. LHP’s, is batting .186 BA in L10 games vs. LHP’s and has a putrid mark of 25.7 K% – ranked #29 in the league!
On the other end, Alfredo Simon is primed to regress a bit in this season half, and this regression process has already started because he struggled in his L2 starts coming off the All Star break! His 2.86 ERA mark does not go well alongside w/ 4.06 SIERA / 4.33 FIP & 3.97 xFIP numbers!
I have Wade Miley way above Alfredo Simon in my Power Rankings, and w/ the way the Reds are struggling offensively lately, I’m taking the Diamondbacks in here as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ W. Miley) @ +107
MLB – 955 Washington Nationals @ 956 Miami Marlins
(Starting Pitchers: T. Roark vs. B. Hand)
I think that we are getting some value w/ WAS especially in the first 5IP’s of the game, as I expect Roark to “outpitch” Brad Hand. The Nationals lost the first 2 games of the series w/ both of them being decided late in the games, so there will be some sense of urgency from them today since the start.
T. Roark has been outstanding lately w/ 3 consecutive great starts in which he allowed 1ER in each game & a nice 17/2 K/BB ratio to show. MIA is ranked #29 in K% (23.3%) for the season and lately things haven’t change at all as MIA is ranked #25 w/ 23.8% in K% in the last 14 days. Roark has some nice K’s numbers w/ 7.07 K/9 in this month, so MIA is a good matchup for him.
On the other end, I’ve faded B. Hand in his last start (took the OVER) vs. HOU, but he performed quite well. Actually, his L2 starts were good vs. SF & HOU but these two teams are struggling offensively as of late. WAS is a top 10 offensive team vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #8 w/ .744 OPS.
While Hand might had the “factor surprise” working for him in those two starts, this won’t happen in here as WAS has already faced him twice this season w/ good results w/ 5 & 3 runs scored!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 First 5 IP’s Washington Nationals (-0.5) (w/ T. Roark) @ -110
953 ARI (+107) vs 954 CIN
Analysis:
MLB – 953 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 954 Cincinnati Reds
(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs. A. Simon)
Catching Wade Miley against this Reds offense @plus money is a valuable bet IMO, and I’m just pulling the trigger…
I’ve made a play w/ ARI in Miley’s last start that was lost (it wasn’t even close)!
“Wade Miley has been outstanding lately! His stats line in this month says it all: .194 BA / 2.20 FIP / 2.50 xFIP / 26.6% K% & 4.6% BB! Wow! Note that he has faced CHC, SF & ATL in his L3 starts and these 3 teams are pretty decent vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #5, #12 & #7, and still, Miley did pretty well against them! PHI offense is ranked just #23 and they are prone to be K’ed quite a lot (ranked #20 in the season w/ 21.1% K%), so I expect Miley to be decent tonight.”
Bad days happen and I expect him to bounce back today against a CIN offense that is ranked #22 OPS vs. LHP’s, is batting .186 BA in L10 games vs. LHP’s and has a putrid mark of 25.7 K% – ranked #29 in the league!
On the other end, Alfredo Simon is primed to regress a bit in this season half, and this regression process has already started because he struggled in his L2 starts coming off the All Star break! His 2.86 ERA mark does not go well alongside w/ 4.06 SIERA / 4.33 FIP & 3.97 xFIP numbers!
I have Wade Miley way above Alfredo Simon in my Power Rankings, and w/ the way the Reds are struggling offensively lately, I’m taking the Diamondbacks in here as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ W. Miley) @ +107
MLB – 955 Washington Nationals @ 956 Miami Marlins
(Starting Pitchers: T. Roark vs. B. Hand)
I think that we are getting some value w/ WAS especially in the first 5IP’s of the game, as I expect Roark to “outpitch” Brad Hand. The Nationals lost the first 2 games of the series w/ both of them being decided late in the games, so there will be some sense of urgency from them today since the start.
T. Roark has been outstanding lately w/ 3 consecutive great starts in which he allowed 1ER in each game & a nice 17/2 K/BB ratio to show. MIA is ranked #29 in K% (23.3%) for the season and lately things haven’t change at all as MIA is ranked #25 w/ 23.8% in K% in the last 14 days. Roark has some nice K’s numbers w/ 7.07 K/9 in this month, so MIA is a good matchup for him.
On the other end, I’ve faded B. Hand in his last start (took the OVER) vs. HOU, but he performed quite well. Actually, his L2 starts were good vs. SF & HOU but these two teams are struggling offensively as of late. WAS is a top 10 offensive team vs. LHP’s this season by being ranked #8 w/ .744 OPS.
While Hand might had the “factor surprise” working for him in those two starts, this won’t happen in here as WAS has already faced him twice this season w/ good results w/ 5 & 3 runs scored!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 First 5 IP’s Washington Nationals (-0.5) (w/ T. Roark) @ -110
Sportswagers
Pittsburgh @ SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +111 over SAN FRANCISCO
Posted at 11:20 AM EST
3:45 PM EST. The Pirates have won the first two games of this series while outscoring the Giants 8-2. San Fran has now dropped six in a row and they have scored one run or less in five of those games. Overall the Giants have scored six runs in their last six games. Backing a favorite that is seeing golf balls can’t be recommended and the Giants don’t get much of a break here in facing Charlie Morton. Talk about Charlie Morton and you’ll probably end up talking about Roy Halladay. The backstory is simple enough: Morton was bad, and he wanted to not be bad, so he went to a new delivery that looked a lot like Halladay’s. People chuckle, because Halladay simply had one of the best pitcher peaks ever, while Morton’s was just a guy on a team. But ignore the Halladay angle and it’s clear that Morton has turned himself into something. Since changing his delivery, Morton increased his four-seam fastball velocity by five mph from 2012 to 2013, the highest increase of any SP in MLB. He also has one of the highest groundball rates in the game at 55%. Morton has one of the best curveballs in the NL (16% swing and miss rate) and his 3.38 ERA on the year is supported by his xERA of 3.42.
Walks and an elevated hr/f are the difference between now and the glory days for Tim Lincecum. His K’s/9 by month has seen a progressive drop of 9.5, 8.8, 6.3, which is explained by his declining velocity per month of 92.3 MPH in April followed by, 90.4 in May, 90.2 in June and 89.8 in July. Lincecum comes in with an ERA of 3.96 and an xERA of 3.62. There is no question that’s he’s still a serviceable starter but a three-year skills decline and a lot of miles on his 30-year-old arm says he’s becoming too much of a risk as a favorite. Hot versus cold (Pirates have scored 41 runs in their past seven games) gets the call.
Our Pick
Pittsburgh +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)
Pittsburgh @ SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +111 over SAN FRANCISCO
Posted at 11:20 AM EST
3:45 PM EST. The Pirates have won the first two games of this series while outscoring the Giants 8-2. San Fran has now dropped six in a row and they have scored one run or less in five of those games. Overall the Giants have scored six runs in their last six games. Backing a favorite that is seeing golf balls can’t be recommended and the Giants don’t get much of a break here in facing Charlie Morton. Talk about Charlie Morton and you’ll probably end up talking about Roy Halladay. The backstory is simple enough: Morton was bad, and he wanted to not be bad, so he went to a new delivery that looked a lot like Halladay’s. People chuckle, because Halladay simply had one of the best pitcher peaks ever, while Morton’s was just a guy on a team. But ignore the Halladay angle and it’s clear that Morton has turned himself into something. Since changing his delivery, Morton increased his four-seam fastball velocity by five mph from 2012 to 2013, the highest increase of any SP in MLB. He also has one of the highest groundball rates in the game at 55%. Morton has one of the best curveballs in the NL (16% swing and miss rate) and his 3.38 ERA on the year is supported by his xERA of 3.42.
Walks and an elevated hr/f are the difference between now and the glory days for Tim Lincecum. His K’s/9 by month has seen a progressive drop of 9.5, 8.8, 6.3, which is explained by his declining velocity per month of 92.3 MPH in April followed by, 90.4 in May, 90.2 in June and 89.8 in July. Lincecum comes in with an ERA of 3.96 and an xERA of 3.62. There is no question that’s he’s still a serviceable starter but a three-year skills decline and a lot of miles on his 30-year-old arm says he’s becoming too much of a risk as a favorite. Hot versus cold (Pirates have scored 41 runs in their past seven games) gets the call.
Our Pick
Pittsburgh +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)
Sportswagers
L.A. Angels @ BALTIMORE
L.A. Angels -1½ +125 over BALTIMORE
Posted at 11:20 AM EST
Kevin Gausman has allowed one earned run or less in six of his nine starts, but his skills haven't kept up with the results, as he has only three pure quality starts in nine attempts. He also has three disasters in those nine starts. The lack of skill support thus far makes him a high risk in a home matchup with the Angels. In five home starts, Gausman has a 4.33 ERA, with only a 14/10 K/BB ratio in 27 IP. The Angels have the league's best road OPS at .774.
The Orioles are 13 games above .500 and if they go on to win the division and do more damage in the playoffs, they will become one of those ESPN 30/30 features. It’s actually mind-boggling how a team this bad can win so many games. Baltimore’s best starter is who? Its best starter (whoever that is) couldn’t crack the rotation on 25% of the teams in this league. Its worst starter and there’s not much difference between first and worst, would be in the minors on 50% of the teams in this league. They’ve done it with offense you say? Uh, no they have not. As a team they are hitting .259. Over the past 20 games the Orioles are hitting a major-league worst .203, which is the exact same BA of the Cincinnati Reds over that same span. Yet the Reds, with a rotation that is about a million times better than the Orioles rotation has lost 10 of their past 12 games. Baltimore’s W/L record is a direct result of luck and fluke and the ability of several hitters to go deep. When this team does not hit a home run or two or three, they do not score runs and that bodes well here for Garett Richards. In 137 frames, Richards has been taken yard just four times. Richards has added more strikeouts and fastball velocity than any other SP from 2013 to 2014. His current 3.09 xERA provides nearly full support to his 2.62 ERA and his skills have been some of the game's best over the last month: 9.9 K’s/9, 2BB/9 and a 57% groundball rate. This will be his first game against the Orioles this season and he pitched only four innings against them last season in three relief appearances. The Orioles are going to get blown out in several games down the stretch and we’re suggesting this is very likely one of them.
Our Pick
L.A. Angels -1½ +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)
L.A. Angels @ BALTIMORE
L.A. Angels -1½ +125 over BALTIMORE
Posted at 11:20 AM EST
Kevin Gausman has allowed one earned run or less in six of his nine starts, but his skills haven't kept up with the results, as he has only three pure quality starts in nine attempts. He also has three disasters in those nine starts. The lack of skill support thus far makes him a high risk in a home matchup with the Angels. In five home starts, Gausman has a 4.33 ERA, with only a 14/10 K/BB ratio in 27 IP. The Angels have the league's best road OPS at .774.
The Orioles are 13 games above .500 and if they go on to win the division and do more damage in the playoffs, they will become one of those ESPN 30/30 features. It’s actually mind-boggling how a team this bad can win so many games. Baltimore’s best starter is who? Its best starter (whoever that is) couldn’t crack the rotation on 25% of the teams in this league. Its worst starter and there’s not much difference between first and worst, would be in the minors on 50% of the teams in this league. They’ve done it with offense you say? Uh, no they have not. As a team they are hitting .259. Over the past 20 games the Orioles are hitting a major-league worst .203, which is the exact same BA of the Cincinnati Reds over that same span. Yet the Reds, with a rotation that is about a million times better than the Orioles rotation has lost 10 of their past 12 games. Baltimore’s W/L record is a direct result of luck and fluke and the ability of several hitters to go deep. When this team does not hit a home run or two or three, they do not score runs and that bodes well here for Garett Richards. In 137 frames, Richards has been taken yard just four times. Richards has added more strikeouts and fastball velocity than any other SP from 2013 to 2014. His current 3.09 xERA provides nearly full support to his 2.62 ERA and his skills have been some of the game's best over the last month: 9.9 K’s/9, 2BB/9 and a 57% groundball rate. This will be his first game against the Orioles this season and he pitched only four innings against them last season in three relief appearances. The Orioles are going to get blown out in several games down the stretch and we’re suggesting this is very likely one of them.
Our Pick
L.A. Angels -1½ +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)
Sportswagers
Colorado @ CHICAGO
Colorado +104 over CHICAGO
Posted at 11:20 AM EST.
Travis Wood had some promise coming into this season. A falling ERA and a nice dominant start/disaster start split were signs of a young pitcher figuring it out, right? Maybe so but Travis Wood’s fortunate hit %, strand%, and hr/f sure helped. His skills over the past three years show this isn't a special skill set and it’s getting worse. Wood is setting up to be one of the best fades in the second half and we’ll put that to the test here. After a nice 3.52 ERA in April, Wodd’s stats have deteriorated. The biggest culprit has been a terrible monthly control trend of 2.1 BB/9 in April followed by monthly BB/9 of 3.7, 5.2 and 5.8. Over the past month covering five starts and 25 innings, Wood has a brutal groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 33%/31%/36%. Over that same span his WHIP is an eye-opening and alarming 2.01. Travis Wood might be injured and doesn’t want to say so or he’s just completely lost it and/or his confidence. Either way, he’s instant fade material.
Here’s an interesting tidbit: Brett Anderson has spent the equivalent of two years on the disabled list since 2011. That small exposure has him extremely undervalued and we’re all over it. Anderson’s xERA shows that his skills are intact. His hr/f rate and hit% conspired against him in 2013 but that was then and this is now. What we see right now is a guy with an elite 62% groundball rate after six appearances, four as a starter. In his last two starts covering 13.1 innings, Anderson has allowed just seven hits and one run. His line drive rate of 16% this season in 33 innings is the best in the majors but it’s a small sample size so he does not qualify. Still, we would not ignore a guy with a 62%/16% groundball/line-drive split coming off back-to-back gems. Rockies may be the best value on today’s board.
Our Pick
Colorado +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Colorado @ CHICAGO
Colorado +104 over CHICAGO
Posted at 11:20 AM EST.
Travis Wood had some promise coming into this season. A falling ERA and a nice dominant start/disaster start split were signs of a young pitcher figuring it out, right? Maybe so but Travis Wood’s fortunate hit %, strand%, and hr/f sure helped. His skills over the past three years show this isn't a special skill set and it’s getting worse. Wood is setting up to be one of the best fades in the second half and we’ll put that to the test here. After a nice 3.52 ERA in April, Wodd’s stats have deteriorated. The biggest culprit has been a terrible monthly control trend of 2.1 BB/9 in April followed by monthly BB/9 of 3.7, 5.2 and 5.8. Over the past month covering five starts and 25 innings, Wood has a brutal groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 33%/31%/36%. Over that same span his WHIP is an eye-opening and alarming 2.01. Travis Wood might be injured and doesn’t want to say so or he’s just completely lost it and/or his confidence. Either way, he’s instant fade material.
Here’s an interesting tidbit: Brett Anderson has spent the equivalent of two years on the disabled list since 2011. That small exposure has him extremely undervalued and we’re all over it. Anderson’s xERA shows that his skills are intact. His hr/f rate and hit% conspired against him in 2013 but that was then and this is now. What we see right now is a guy with an elite 62% groundball rate after six appearances, four as a starter. In his last two starts covering 13.1 innings, Anderson has allowed just seven hits and one run. His line drive rate of 16% this season in 33 innings is the best in the majors but it’s a small sample size so he does not qualify. Still, we would not ignore a guy with a 62%/16% groundball/line-drive split coming off back-to-back gems. Rockies may be the best value on today’s board.
Our Pick
Colorado +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Birdman 5* (104-63) According to pickmonitor
7/30 7:05PM Los Angeles Angels (G. Richards) vs Baltimore Orioles (K. Gausman)
5.00 Units: [971] Los Angeles Angels -121
7/30 7:05PM Los Angeles Angels (G. Richards) vs Baltimore Orioles (K. Gausman)
5.00 Units: [971] Los Angeles Angels -121
