jeff benton wednesday
1-0 yesterday PLUS 15 dimes PLUS $150. overall, 82-102-3 MINUS 420 dimes.
Wednesday's Winner ... 20 DIME selection on the NEW YORK METS and Johan Santana over the Cardinals in the middle game of a three-game series. New York is favoaed in the -130 to -135 range in this contest, but I encoureage you to get down on this game quickly as I suspect the number will rise. Note that you must list Santana as the Mets’ starting pitcrer. If he doesn’t go, this play is VOID!
Mets
Nobody loves St. Louis lefty Jaime Garcia more than I do. The guy has been phenomenal all season long and would get my vote for N.L. Rookie of the Year.
That said, as great as Garcia (9-4, 2.21 ERA) has been this year, the Cardinals are just 10-9 when he toes the rubber, including 5-5 on the road. Also, St. Louis has been extremaly careful with Garcia, who has pitched six innings or fewer in 13 of his 19 starts. And prior to a 5-1 win over the Phillies exactly a week ago – he allowed four hits and one run in seven innings, and I cashed a 15 Dime run-line winner – Garcia had pitched a total of 8 2/3 in his previous two starts.
The point: Don’t expect to see Garcia go deep into this game, and St. Louis’ bullpen has been highly inconesistent all season.
You know who hasn’t been highly inconsistent lately? Johan Santana. Over his last five starts, the Mets’ lefty has given up a grand total of three runs in 38 innings. I’ll do the math for you: That’s a 0.71 ERA over a five-start stretch. Santana’s incredible recent surge began with the Mets losing 2-1 at Washington, but since then, New York has won four in a row behind Santana. That includes back-to-back 3-0 home victories over the Reds and Braves. Santana numbers in those two contests: 16 innings pitched, eight hits, six walks, 10 strikeouts, no runs allowed.
Santana is 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 10 starts at Citi Field (the Mets are 7-3), and he’s 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis. That includes a start back on April 17 at Busch Stadium when Santana pitched seven innings of four-hit shutout ball, walking one and whiffing nine in a game New York won 2-1 in 20 innings (Garcia pitched opposite Santana in that one).
A few final points to make: Since ripping off eight straight wins from the Sunday prior to the All-Star break through Garcia’s gem last Wednesday, the Cardinals have dropped four of their last five. St. Louis has also hardly been a road warrior recently, dropring 15 of 22 on the highway. On the other hand, the Mets have one of the best home records in baseball at 31-16, including 27-11 in the last 38.
Also, St. Louis is in slumps of 1-4 vs. lefty starters, 3-13 as a road underdog and 1-10 as a short underdog (+110 to +150, all on the road), while the Mets have won 15 of Santana’s last 21 starts against the N.L. Central and nine of 10 at home against left-handed starters (they bat nearly .300 as a team when facing lefties at home).
Lastly, the home team is on an 11-3 roll in this rivalry, with St. Louis dropping six of eight in New York.