Wednesday's Action 15 DIME selection on the St. Louis Cardinals at home on the run line (-1½ runs) over Philadelphia. As I pualish this release, the Cardinals are catching between +120 and +140 on the run line, so make sure you shop around and get the best of the number. Starting pitcheers are always specofied with run-line plays, so Jaime Garcia (St. Louis) and Joe Blanton (Philadelphia) MUST start or this play is VOID!
Cardinals (-1½ runs)
The Cardinals are on fire. They’ve won seven straight games, and six of those have been by scores of 4-2, 7-1, 8-4, 2-0, 8-4 and 7-1. Look again at that offensive output: 41 runs in seven games, or nearly six runs per contest.
Meanwhile, since returning from the All-Star break, the Phillies have dropped three in a row and five of six, including losses of 12-6, 11-6, 8-4 and 7-1. During this slump, Philadelphia has surrendered a total of 44 runs!
So we’ve established that the Cardinals offense is rolling, and Philadelphia’s pitching is a mess. Well, look who’s on the mound for the Phillies tonight: Joe Blanton, he of the 6.21 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Blanton on the road this season is 1-3 with a 7.06 ERA. And Blanton in nine day games this season is 2-3 with a 6.43 ERA (the Phillies are 3-6). Translation: Blanton sucks, and if the Phillies are expecting him to cool off the Cardinals, they’re dreaming.
After all, back on May 3 at home against St. Louis, Blanton gave up four runs and 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings, losing 6-3. The winning pitcher in that one was Redbirds rookie Jaime Garcia, who surrendered just one run on three hits and four walks, striking out six in six innings. Of course, that was just one of several gems pitched this season by Garcia, who is 8-4 with a 2.27 ERA overall and 3-1 with a 1.49 ERA at Busch Stadium. How good has Garcia been this year? Only twice in his 18 starts has he surrendered more than two earned runs.
And check this out: The Cardinals have won nine games that Garcia has started this season, and the scores in those nine wins were 7-1, 6-0, 6-3, 4-3, 12-4, 5-2, 9-4, 5-0 and 8-4. So eight of the nine covered the run line. At the same time, six of the Phillies’ eight losses when Blanton starts have been multiple-run defeats.
Add it all up and you’ve got a hot team with a stellar pitcher playing at home against an opponent that’s reeling and a pitcher who has been a disaster. Easy call here.