Jason Storm
76-31-1 and on a 15-4 Run last 19 Free Picks!!
Free Pick: Chicago Cubs +115 List Ryan Dempster
San Francisco Giants (-125) vs Chicago Cubs (+115) Over-Under 6.5
This is what I call a public trap. I'll explain why.
Tonight, the Giants are playing at Wrigley Field to face the Cubs for
the 3rd time in 2 days. The Giants swept the double header yesterday
to improve to 46-34 and improve their NL West division lead to 2.5
games. On the other side, the losses dropped the Cubs to 32-48 on the
season, 12 games out from first place in the NL Central. It's two
teams heading in different directions. Tonight's match ups puts the
Giants Tim Lincecum against the Cubs Ryan Dempster.
The public is loving this matchup. Everyone is on the Giants. As of
10am EST this morning, 90% of the bets were on the Giants, who are a
slight road favorite.
But the Giants aren't as good as the public thinks. First of all,
Offensively they are challenged. You can blame it on injuries as San
Francisco has 4 everyday starters on the DL including their star
Buster Posey who has been lost for the season. Also gone for the
season is Freddy Sanchez. These two players lead the Giants in Batting
Average on the season. San Francisco will miss their production. San
Fran was struggling to score runs with them so without them it's not
surprising that they are one of the worst offensive teams in the
league. The Giants are the 4th worst in the league with 284 runs
scored, and thats after they scored 19 runs in yesterdays double
header. They are tied for 23rd in the league in batting average at
just .242. It's not going to get better for this team as they just
don't have the players they need to produce.
There is no question the Cubs are better than the Giants offensively.
The Cubs have hit for more power. They have 19 more home runs this
year. The Cubs also hit for a higher average. They are better than the
Giants in all of the the important offensive categories. This may be
shocking to some, but the Cubs are 2nd in the NL in batting average
.264, 5th best in all of baseball. The Cubs have 9 players with a
batting average of .270 or better. I bring that up only to compare it
to the Giants. In this game, the Giants will only have 3 players
batting .270 or better.
It's clear the Cubs get the check mark offensively. Lets go into the
pitching matchup. Given the fact that the Giants are the favorite and
are a worse offensive team, they must be a much better pitching team,
right? Wrong.
Tim Lincecum is just 6-6 on the season. He does have a very good ERA
at 3.16. But he hasn't been good lately. In his last 3 games, he is
just 1-2 record with a 4.76 ERA. In fact, the month of June has not
been his month. He only has one win with an ERA of 5.72 since June
1st. The opposite has been true of Cubs starter Ryan Dempster.
Dempster may just be 5-6 on the season, but in his last 3 starts he is
2-1 with an ERA of 2.45. He is getting better as the season goes on.
Lincecum gets all the recognition because he is a big strike out guy.
He has a nickname, The Freak. He has a reputation. The media and the
public loves this guy. On the other hand, Ryan Dempster has never been
a big strikeout guy and never been the medias focus, but he has been
just as productive for his team. When Lincecum starts his team is
10-6. When Dempster starts his team 10-7. Dempster is rising, while
Lincecum is struggling. The pitching match up is even, which means you
cannot justify the Giants being a road favorite.
This is a prime example of a public trap. Giants are pitching a big
name pitcher against a poor team. 90% of the money is on the Giants,
yet they are worse offensively and it's an even pitching match up. I
am not going to fall for the trap. I am taking the Underdog and I
expect the Cubs to put more runs up and get us the win.
