GC: MLB Play
Wednesday card has the NBA Game of the Week with 5 Power systems and 2 Perfect Angles. In MLB We swept the board and tonight there is the 5* MLB Dog of the Month from a solid system and a 28-4 Totals Angle. MLB Play below
The MLB system play is on the St. Louis Cardinals. Game 930 at 8:15 eastern. The Cardinals fit a powerful system that dates to 2005 and plays on certain home favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home favored win by 5 or more runs at -140 or higher and had 10 or more hits with 1 or less errors, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs that scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits , like the Yankees tonight. New York is 2-7 as a road dog off a road loss by 5 or more runs. The Cardinals have won 5 of 7 as a home favorite off a home win by 5 or more runs. The Cards have a hot Shelby Miller on the mound and they have won 6 of his last 7 starts. Miller has won 7 of his last 8 home starts and has never allowed a run at home in the month of May in his brief career going 21+ scoreless the last 2 years. The Yankees counter with Kuroda who has lost 3 of 4 on the road and needs a night light as he has lost 6 of 7 starts at night. Kuroda is a mediocre 5-11 in his last 16 road May starts. With all the aforementioned data favoring St. Louis we will look their way tonight. On Hump day get on the giving end with 3 Big Plays. MLB Swept last night. Tonight we have the 5* Dog of the Month from a Huge dog system that has won 7 straight times. There is also a 28-4 totals Play and the NBA Game of the Week with 5 Powerful Playoff systems. Bang your Book good tonight. For the free MLB Play take St. Louis. GC
Wednesday card has the NBA Game of the Week with 5 Power systems and 2 Perfect Angles. In MLB We swept the board and tonight there is the 5* MLB Dog of the Month from a solid system and a 28-4 Totals Angle. MLB Play below
The MLB system play is on the St. Louis Cardinals. Game 930 at 8:15 eastern. The Cardinals fit a powerful system that dates to 2005 and plays on certain home favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home favored win by 5 or more runs at -140 or higher and had 10 or more hits with 1 or less errors, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs that scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits , like the Yankees tonight. New York is 2-7 as a road dog off a road loss by 5 or more runs. The Cardinals have won 5 of 7 as a home favorite off a home win by 5 or more runs. The Cards have a hot Shelby Miller on the mound and they have won 6 of his last 7 starts. Miller has won 7 of his last 8 home starts and has never allowed a run at home in the month of May in his brief career going 21+ scoreless the last 2 years. The Yankees counter with Kuroda who has lost 3 of 4 on the road and needs a night light as he has lost 6 of 7 starts at night. Kuroda is a mediocre 5-11 in his last 16 road May starts. With all the aforementioned data favoring St. Louis we will look their way tonight. On Hump day get on the giving end with 3 Big Plays. MLB Swept last night. Tonight we have the 5* Dog of the Month from a Huge dog system that has won 7 straight times. There is also a 28-4 totals Play and the NBA Game of the Week with 5 Powerful Playoff systems. Bang your Book good tonight. For the free MLB Play take St. Louis. GC
Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee won in the NHL Playoffs on Tuesday with the Canadians -$110/Rangers.
"Mr Chalk" won on Tuesday in MLB in the American League with the White Sox -$165/Indians.
For Wednesday in the NBA Playoffs E&B like the Pacers +2.5/Heat.
For Wednesday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Dodgers -$190/Reds.
Ben lee is 3-1 +$87 for week thirty one 131-154-5 -$2650.
"Mr Chalk" is 23-23 -$572 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.
Ben lee won in the NHL Playoffs on Tuesday with the Canadians -$110/Rangers.
"Mr Chalk" won on Tuesday in MLB in the American League with the White Sox -$165/Indians.
For Wednesday in the NBA Playoffs E&B like the Pacers +2.5/Heat.
For Wednesday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Dodgers -$190/Reds.
Ben lee is 3-1 +$87 for week thirty one 131-154-5 -$2650.
"Mr Chalk" is 23-23 -$572 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.
Joe Gavazzi
MLB
Cincinnati Reds (Bailey) at LA Dodgers (Kershaw) (-1 ½ R, +125) 10:10 ET
4% LA Dodgers (-1 ½ R, +125)
The Reds have really struggled on the road this year, averaging just 3.3 RPG. In their most recent 13 road games, Cincinnati has gone 3-10, being outscored 58 to 34. Tonight, they enter on a 0-4 overall slide with a .224 BA against mostly aces. With last night’s 6-3 victory, LA has won 5 consecutive games on this field vs. the Reds. In their last 16 games, LAD has plated 77 runs, good for nearly 5.0 RPG. Bailey has a 5.34 ERA for the season, which is even worse at 6.58 in 7 night games, spanning 39 2/3 IP. In 5 road games, working 26 2/3, Bailey has a 6.08 ERA. That is even worse in his most recent 3 road starts where it is 8.04. After a rare bad outing, Kershaw returned to form working 6 innings, allowing no runs on 2 hits with 9 Ks of a 2-0 win vs. Philly. Run line players take note, 22 of 29 LAD wins have come by 2 or more runs, including 8/11 home victories. Four of Cincinnati’s recent road losses have come by 2 or more runs.
Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) at Toronto Blue Jays (Hendriks) (-105) 7:05 ET
3% Toronto (-105)
The Rays have been pounded by the Blue Jays the last 2 nights, losing by a combined score of 19-11. Though Archer is in good current form, not allowing an earned run in his last 112/3 IP, he has not pitched well on the road this year. Five road outings, spanning 28 1/3 IP, have resulted in a 5.08 ERA. That spells trouble vs. the booming Toronto bats. That strong hitting has resulted in current positive streaks of 18-5, 13-2, and 8-0. In that winning streak, the Jays have clouted 17 HR, hit .321, and averaged 6.3 RPG. In 30 recent appearances in MLB previous to this year, Hendriks had gone 2-13 with a 6.06 ERA. He was a meal ticket for us by fading him. This year, in 7 starts with Triple A Buffalo, Hendriks “flipped the switch,” going 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA. His first start in the Show saw him beat Oakland, 3-2, working 5 2/3 IP of 1 run ball, while allowing just 3 hits. Eventually that rubber band will snap. Let’s hope it’s not tonight!
Texas Rangers (Saunders) at Minnesota Twins (Gibson) (-115) 8:10 ET
3% Minnesota (-115)
When Saunders was injured in his first start of the season, it ruined our chances for extended success by fading him. That start was reminiscent of seasons past. Saunders lost 8-1 to Tampa Bay, working just 3 2/3 IP, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits with 3 walks. We will look to fade him every time he takes the mound. The Twins snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory vs. the Rangers last night. We reduce this rating a bit because Gibson has a 4.68 ERA and less than impressive 25/20 KBB. But, he has been at his best from this mound, where in 4 starts over 28 IP, Gibson has a 2.25 ERA. Let’s bank on that home success to continue against one of our favorite pitchers to fade.
NY Yankees (Kuroda) at St. Louis Cardinals (Miller) (-1 ½ R, +175) 8:15 ET MLB
4% St. Louis (-1 ½ R, +175)
After playing twice as many road as home games to begin the season, St. Louis has found their momentum in late May, during a string of scheduling in which they are playing 19/22 home games. The Cards have won 10/13 recent outings. That includes 6-0 last night against these Yankees. This pitching matchup, again, favors the Red Birds. Kuroda has a 4.55 ERA for the season, 4.86 ERA in his last 3 starts, and 4.65 ERA in 7 starts at night. But perhaps the most revealing stat about Kuroda is that in 11 road starts, dating to 2013, Kuroda is 0-7 with a 4.59 ERA. In his last 8 starts, Miller has gone 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Four home starts this year, over 24 2/3 IP, have resulted in a 2.19 ERA. We play this aggressively on the run line, as run line players will note: 19 of 24 NYY losses have come by 2 or more runs. Also, dating to the start of 2013, 56/69 St. Louis home wins have come by 2 or more runs, including 12/15 TY. Lay the runs and take back big money with the Cards.
Gavazzi NBA
NBA PLAYOFFS
Miami Heat (-2) at Indiana Pacers 8:30 ET TNT
4% Miami (-2)
Elimination game for the Indiana Pacers! Or, as the Miami Heat prefer to view it … a closeout game. It is just the type of game in which they have had a strong history of success. In fact, Miami is 8-0 SU in Game 5s, when they are leading 3 games to 1. Miami has truly “flipped the switch.” After closing the regular season 12-14 SU, the Heat have gone 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS in the playoffs. This includes 3 consecutive wins vs. Indiana, the last two by double digit margins. Monday’s 102-90 victory may have been the most complete victory in that span. The Heat got to the foul line 34 times, converting 30 of those attempts. They committed just 7 TOs. After a pregame pep talk, Chris Bosh proved why he should be considered a legitimate member of the Big 3. James led the way with 32/10/5, while Bosh added 25/6 and Wade contributed 15. Hibbert once again disappeared, failing to score. If that happens again, the Pacers have no chance. Prideful Indie will not want to whimper from the playoffs with a 4th consecutive defeat on their strong home court. But, it appears there is little they can do about it, if Miami plays with the “knee to the windpipe” attitude that has characterized the 4th quarter of this playoff series. History says they will.
MLB
Cincinnati Reds (Bailey) at LA Dodgers (Kershaw) (-1 ½ R, +125) 10:10 ET
4% LA Dodgers (-1 ½ R, +125)
The Reds have really struggled on the road this year, averaging just 3.3 RPG. In their most recent 13 road games, Cincinnati has gone 3-10, being outscored 58 to 34. Tonight, they enter on a 0-4 overall slide with a .224 BA against mostly aces. With last night’s 6-3 victory, LA has won 5 consecutive games on this field vs. the Reds. In their last 16 games, LAD has plated 77 runs, good for nearly 5.0 RPG. Bailey has a 5.34 ERA for the season, which is even worse at 6.58 in 7 night games, spanning 39 2/3 IP. In 5 road games, working 26 2/3, Bailey has a 6.08 ERA. That is even worse in his most recent 3 road starts where it is 8.04. After a rare bad outing, Kershaw returned to form working 6 innings, allowing no runs on 2 hits with 9 Ks of a 2-0 win vs. Philly. Run line players take note, 22 of 29 LAD wins have come by 2 or more runs, including 8/11 home victories. Four of Cincinnati’s recent road losses have come by 2 or more runs.
Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) at Toronto Blue Jays (Hendriks) (-105) 7:05 ET
3% Toronto (-105)
The Rays have been pounded by the Blue Jays the last 2 nights, losing by a combined score of 19-11. Though Archer is in good current form, not allowing an earned run in his last 112/3 IP, he has not pitched well on the road this year. Five road outings, spanning 28 1/3 IP, have resulted in a 5.08 ERA. That spells trouble vs. the booming Toronto bats. That strong hitting has resulted in current positive streaks of 18-5, 13-2, and 8-0. In that winning streak, the Jays have clouted 17 HR, hit .321, and averaged 6.3 RPG. In 30 recent appearances in MLB previous to this year, Hendriks had gone 2-13 with a 6.06 ERA. He was a meal ticket for us by fading him. This year, in 7 starts with Triple A Buffalo, Hendriks “flipped the switch,” going 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA. His first start in the Show saw him beat Oakland, 3-2, working 5 2/3 IP of 1 run ball, while allowing just 3 hits. Eventually that rubber band will snap. Let’s hope it’s not tonight!
Texas Rangers (Saunders) at Minnesota Twins (Gibson) (-115) 8:10 ET
3% Minnesota (-115)
When Saunders was injured in his first start of the season, it ruined our chances for extended success by fading him. That start was reminiscent of seasons past. Saunders lost 8-1 to Tampa Bay, working just 3 2/3 IP, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits with 3 walks. We will look to fade him every time he takes the mound. The Twins snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory vs. the Rangers last night. We reduce this rating a bit because Gibson has a 4.68 ERA and less than impressive 25/20 KBB. But, he has been at his best from this mound, where in 4 starts over 28 IP, Gibson has a 2.25 ERA. Let’s bank on that home success to continue against one of our favorite pitchers to fade.
NY Yankees (Kuroda) at St. Louis Cardinals (Miller) (-1 ½ R, +175) 8:15 ET MLB
4% St. Louis (-1 ½ R, +175)
After playing twice as many road as home games to begin the season, St. Louis has found their momentum in late May, during a string of scheduling in which they are playing 19/22 home games. The Cards have won 10/13 recent outings. That includes 6-0 last night against these Yankees. This pitching matchup, again, favors the Red Birds. Kuroda has a 4.55 ERA for the season, 4.86 ERA in his last 3 starts, and 4.65 ERA in 7 starts at night. But perhaps the most revealing stat about Kuroda is that in 11 road starts, dating to 2013, Kuroda is 0-7 with a 4.59 ERA. In his last 8 starts, Miller has gone 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Four home starts this year, over 24 2/3 IP, have resulted in a 2.19 ERA. We play this aggressively on the run line, as run line players will note: 19 of 24 NYY losses have come by 2 or more runs. Also, dating to the start of 2013, 56/69 St. Louis home wins have come by 2 or more runs, including 12/15 TY. Lay the runs and take back big money with the Cards.
Gavazzi NBA
NBA PLAYOFFS
Miami Heat (-2) at Indiana Pacers 8:30 ET TNT
4% Miami (-2)
Elimination game for the Indiana Pacers! Or, as the Miami Heat prefer to view it … a closeout game. It is just the type of game in which they have had a strong history of success. In fact, Miami is 8-0 SU in Game 5s, when they are leading 3 games to 1. Miami has truly “flipped the switch.” After closing the regular season 12-14 SU, the Heat have gone 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS in the playoffs. This includes 3 consecutive wins vs. Indiana, the last two by double digit margins. Monday’s 102-90 victory may have been the most complete victory in that span. The Heat got to the foul line 34 times, converting 30 of those attempts. They committed just 7 TOs. After a pregame pep talk, Chris Bosh proved why he should be considered a legitimate member of the Big 3. James led the way with 32/10/5, while Bosh added 25/6 and Wade contributed 15. Hibbert once again disappeared, failing to score. If that happens again, the Pacers have no chance. Prideful Indie will not want to whimper from the playoffs with a 4th consecutive defeat on their strong home court. But, it appears there is little they can do about it, if Miami plays with the “knee to the windpipe” attitude that has characterized the 4th quarter of this playoff series. History says they will.
WUNDERDOG SPORTS FREE PICK
Game: New York Yankees @ St. Louis Cardinals
Time: Wednesday 05/28 8:15 PM Eastern
Pick: St. Louis -121 (moneyline)
It is going to be a difficult task for the Yankees in this one, as St. Louis has better pitching. The Yankees have also suffered when they surrender 5 runs or more in a game, where they are 1-18 on the season. Huroki Kuroda has not been the same pitcher this season, and at age 40, he may have little left in the tank. The Yankees have surrendered 49 runs in his last seven starts. Shelby Miller is having a strong season at 6-3 with a 3.19 ERA, and the only Yankees to have faced him are a combined 0-8, and New York has long struggled vs. pitchers they are seeing for the first time. The Yankees are just 3-14 in their last 17 as a road dog, and just 1-9 in Kuroda’s last 10 road starts. The Cards boast a 57-19 mark in their last 76 vs. a right-handed starter, which clinches it for me – play on St. Louis
Game: New York Yankees @ St. Louis Cardinals
Time: Wednesday 05/28 8:15 PM Eastern
Pick: St. Louis -121 (moneyline)
It is going to be a difficult task for the Yankees in this one, as St. Louis has better pitching. The Yankees have also suffered when they surrender 5 runs or more in a game, where they are 1-18 on the season. Huroki Kuroda has not been the same pitcher this season, and at age 40, he may have little left in the tank. The Yankees have surrendered 49 runs in his last seven starts. Shelby Miller is having a strong season at 6-3 with a 3.19 ERA, and the only Yankees to have faced him are a combined 0-8, and New York has long struggled vs. pitchers they are seeing for the first time. The Yankees are just 3-14 in their last 17 as a road dog, and just 1-9 in Kuroda’s last 10 road starts. The Cards boast a 57-19 mark in their last 76 vs. a right-handed starter, which clinches it for me – play on St. Louis
BOB BALFE FREE PICK
SELECTION:
NEW YORK YANKEES +120
(Kuroda / Miller)
With all being equal between these pitchers the walks that Miller gives up is alarming and always leads to more runs. Neither team has really impressed much this year. These teams really are mirror images of each other. Yesterday’s news, but great staffs that don’t take much time at all to get back on top. Walks kill in this league. Take the Yankees.
SELECTION:
NEW YORK YANKEES +120
(Kuroda / Miller)
With all being equal between these pitchers the walks that Miller gives up is alarming and always leads to more runs. Neither team has really impressed much this year. These teams really are mirror images of each other. Yesterday’s news, but great staffs that don’t take much time at all to get back on top. Walks kill in this league. Take the Yankees.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +135 over KANSAS CITY
The Royals have been outscored in the first two games of this series, 12-2. K.C. has now dropped three in a row and six of eight. Danny Duffy comes in with an ERA of 2.42 and WHIP of 1.02 after 10 games with four of those coming as a starter. Now we get the opportunity to sell Duffy at an inflated price because of his surface stats but his under the hood numbers tell a completely different story. Duffy’s xERA since being inserted into the rotation is 5.27. Over his last 23 innings, he’s walked 10 and struck out 10. Poor control continues to undermine Duffy’s decent stuff and his xERA shows that walks and a high fly-ball % won't lead him to much success. More risk than reward here and pitching for a team that is seeing BB’s doesn’t help.
The Astros won 3-0 last night but that score was flattering to the Royals, as Houston just missed scoring three times that. Houston has now won four in a row while batting .337 over that span. Jarred Cosart put up an ugly 5.52 ERAin April and given the terrible skills he posted in 2013 he’s not likely to attract much attention. That said, he continues to possess some intriguing raw tools. His 94-mph four-seam fastball was among the top 10 highest in the NL in April and he continues to show a strong 54% groundball tilt. Cosart’s xERA in May so far is 2.97 but his unlucky strand rate of 69% has hurt his surface stats. Skill-savvy bettors have a close eye on Cosart and with the hot versus cold angle added, we’re happy to back the better pitcher at this price.
SAN FRANCISCO/Chicago Over 7½
This is an early start in San Fran (12:45 local) and it may surprise you to learn that summer days at AT&T favors hitters as opposed to the damp nighttime air that is particularly helpful to pitchers. Day games in San Fran produce more overs than unders but this total does not reflect that. Edwin Jackson is coming off a start in San Diego in which he was ripped for nine hits (2 jacks) and eight runs in just four frames. The start prior to that, Jackson threw a gem against the Brewers. This is all nothing new for Jackson, as he’s been an extremely erratic pitcher over his career throwing for eight different teams in 11 seasons. He's often in demand because of he eats innings and he’s almost always good for double-digit victories over the course of a season. The other side of that coin is why he’s deemed expendable. Jackson has severe ERA swings, a .467 lifetime win% and game-to-game volatility. It's difficult to trust the ball with someone whose dominant start/disaster start split has been on a three-year collision course. In day games over the past three years, Jackson is 14-17 with an ERA of 4.73 and a BAA of .279.
The decline of Tim Lincecum has been well-documented in recent seasons. After two Cy Young awards early in his career, Lincecum has a 4.83 ERA from 2012-14. After 10 starts this season, Lincecum has five quality one’s to go along with his 4.55 ERA. At home, Lincecum is 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA. In four day games, he’s allowed 32 hits and 13 earned runs over 20 innings for an ERA of 5.66. Lincecum has also walked 24 batters in 55.1 innings to push his WHIP to an alarming 1.61. Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2014 among NL SP and it's not even close. It's a problem that has made him extremely hittable, and it's one that is exacerbated by his gradual loss of fastball velocity. He had a 94 mph average fastball velocity early in his career. Now it barely cracks 90 mph. Check out the yearly SLG that batters have posted against his fastball over the past four seasons, starting in 2011: .400, .420, .455 and finally this year, .475. Velocity loss combined with a complete lack of movement on his pitches puts Lincecum near the top of undesirable “under” pitchers.
Baltimore/MILWAUKEE Over 8
Two hot hitting teams at a pitcher’s park with two very average pitchers going prompts us to step in without hesitation. In seven of the Orioles last eight games, the winning team has scored seven runs or more. In four of the Brewers last five games, the winning team has scored seven runs or more and it would come as no surprise if one or both of these teams scored seven or more again. Bud Norris finally escaped Houston in 2013 and while a move to a contender may help him generate more wins, his skills are simply not that good. Norris has allowed just 17 free passes in 56 innings, resulting in much improved control. However, it would be a welcome change, except his K rate has fallen with it. He's also generating fewer swinging strikes. What was a very good strikeout rate has fallen to league-average and the composite result is more balls being hit hard. In two starts at Miller Park over the past three seasons, Norris was tagged for 13 hits and 10 earned runs in 11 innings for an ERA of 7.71. That’s when he was better and the Brewers bats were worse. Milwaukee has hit .319 over the past week and they figure to keep it going here.
Don’t believe Yovani Gallardo’s 3.51 ERA for a second. Here’s a guy that has seen an erosion of his strikeout rate escalate into a freefall, moving him from star-potential power pitcher to groundball-inducing, innings-eating workhorse. Poor control has long made him a WHIP-killer, now his substandard command says some serious regression is coming in his actual ERA. Gallardo’s swinging strike rate is a low 5%. His BB/K split over his past 27 innings is 10/18. Gallardo has allowed four runs in three of his past four starts and it came against much easier competition than the bats he’ll face here. Gallardo’s skills are on the verge of falling off a cliff. He’s not going to miss many bats, giving these power-hitting Orioles with solid batting averages the opportunity to score plenty. Unless Gallardo gets very lucky, Baltimore will get to him often and early.
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Houston +135 over KANSAS CITY
The Royals have been outscored in the first two games of this series, 12-2. K.C. has now dropped three in a row and six of eight. Danny Duffy comes in with an ERA of 2.42 and WHIP of 1.02 after 10 games with four of those coming as a starter. Now we get the opportunity to sell Duffy at an inflated price because of his surface stats but his under the hood numbers tell a completely different story. Duffy’s xERA since being inserted into the rotation is 5.27. Over his last 23 innings, he’s walked 10 and struck out 10. Poor control continues to undermine Duffy’s decent stuff and his xERA shows that walks and a high fly-ball % won't lead him to much success. More risk than reward here and pitching for a team that is seeing BB’s doesn’t help.
The Astros won 3-0 last night but that score was flattering to the Royals, as Houston just missed scoring three times that. Houston has now won four in a row while batting .337 over that span. Jarred Cosart put up an ugly 5.52 ERAin April and given the terrible skills he posted in 2013 he’s not likely to attract much attention. That said, he continues to possess some intriguing raw tools. His 94-mph four-seam fastball was among the top 10 highest in the NL in April and he continues to show a strong 54% groundball tilt. Cosart’s xERA in May so far is 2.97 but his unlucky strand rate of 69% has hurt his surface stats. Skill-savvy bettors have a close eye on Cosart and with the hot versus cold angle added, we’re happy to back the better pitcher at this price.
SAN FRANCISCO/Chicago Over 7½
This is an early start in San Fran (12:45 local) and it may surprise you to learn that summer days at AT&T favors hitters as opposed to the damp nighttime air that is particularly helpful to pitchers. Day games in San Fran produce more overs than unders but this total does not reflect that. Edwin Jackson is coming off a start in San Diego in which he was ripped for nine hits (2 jacks) and eight runs in just four frames. The start prior to that, Jackson threw a gem against the Brewers. This is all nothing new for Jackson, as he’s been an extremely erratic pitcher over his career throwing for eight different teams in 11 seasons. He's often in demand because of he eats innings and he’s almost always good for double-digit victories over the course of a season. The other side of that coin is why he’s deemed expendable. Jackson has severe ERA swings, a .467 lifetime win% and game-to-game volatility. It's difficult to trust the ball with someone whose dominant start/disaster start split has been on a three-year collision course. In day games over the past three years, Jackson is 14-17 with an ERA of 4.73 and a BAA of .279.
The decline of Tim Lincecum has been well-documented in recent seasons. After two Cy Young awards early in his career, Lincecum has a 4.83 ERA from 2012-14. After 10 starts this season, Lincecum has five quality one’s to go along with his 4.55 ERA. At home, Lincecum is 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA. In four day games, he’s allowed 32 hits and 13 earned runs over 20 innings for an ERA of 5.66. Lincecum has also walked 24 batters in 55.1 innings to push his WHIP to an alarming 1.61. Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2014 among NL SP and it's not even close. It's a problem that has made him extremely hittable, and it's one that is exacerbated by his gradual loss of fastball velocity. He had a 94 mph average fastball velocity early in his career. Now it barely cracks 90 mph. Check out the yearly SLG that batters have posted against his fastball over the past four seasons, starting in 2011: .400, .420, .455 and finally this year, .475. Velocity loss combined with a complete lack of movement on his pitches puts Lincecum near the top of undesirable “under” pitchers.
Baltimore/MILWAUKEE Over 8
Two hot hitting teams at a pitcher’s park with two very average pitchers going prompts us to step in without hesitation. In seven of the Orioles last eight games, the winning team has scored seven runs or more. In four of the Brewers last five games, the winning team has scored seven runs or more and it would come as no surprise if one or both of these teams scored seven or more again. Bud Norris finally escaped Houston in 2013 and while a move to a contender may help him generate more wins, his skills are simply not that good. Norris has allowed just 17 free passes in 56 innings, resulting in much improved control. However, it would be a welcome change, except his K rate has fallen with it. He's also generating fewer swinging strikes. What was a very good strikeout rate has fallen to league-average and the composite result is more balls being hit hard. In two starts at Miller Park over the past three seasons, Norris was tagged for 13 hits and 10 earned runs in 11 innings for an ERA of 7.71. That’s when he was better and the Brewers bats were worse. Milwaukee has hit .319 over the past week and they figure to keep it going here.
Don’t believe Yovani Gallardo’s 3.51 ERA for a second. Here’s a guy that has seen an erosion of his strikeout rate escalate into a freefall, moving him from star-potential power pitcher to groundball-inducing, innings-eating workhorse. Poor control has long made him a WHIP-killer, now his substandard command says some serious regression is coming in his actual ERA. Gallardo’s swinging strike rate is a low 5%. His BB/K split over his past 27 innings is 10/18. Gallardo has allowed four runs in three of his past four starts and it came against much easier competition than the bats he’ll face here. Gallardo’s skills are on the verge of falling off a cliff. He’s not going to miss many bats, giving these power-hitting Orioles with solid batting averages the opportunity to score plenty. Unless Gallardo gets very lucky, Baltimore will get to him often and early.
Pass NBA & NHL
