jeff benton wednesday
0-1-1 yesterday MINUS 5 dimes...overall, 27-30-3 PLUS 5 Dimes.
Wednesday's Action 20 Dime: DENVER NUGGETS
Nuggets
Last night, we saw two teams return home with their backs against the wall – Dallas down 3-1 to San Antonio; the Lakers tied up with the upstart Thunder. What happened? The Mavs cruised by 22 points, and the Lakers rolled by 24.
Tonight, the Nuggets find themselves back home in the same must-win situation against Utah. And like the Lakers and Mavericks last night, Denver is primed for a big-time blowout. There’s just no way a team led by veterans like Chauncey Billups, Carmelo Anthony and Kenyon Martin are going to go down without a fight – not on their home court.
Besides that, while I’m sure the Jazz want to win – badly – there’s something that happens to teams when they go on the road with a chance to close out a series. They just can’t match the home team’s intensity or summon up the kind of killer instinct needed to wrap things up. We saw it happen with the Celtics in Game 4 in Miami, and we saw it happen with the Spurs in Game 5 in Dallas last night. And you could also argue that the Cavaliers (Game 3 in Chicago), Hawks (Games 2 and 4 in Milwaukee) and Suns (Game 4 in Portland) suffered similar letdowns.
It will take a Herculean effort by the Jazz to reverse that trend and match Denver’s physical and emotional energy tonight – and I’m not even talking about Utah’s chances of actually winning this game. I’m saying it will be nearly impossible for Utah to avoid getting blown out.
Keep this in mind, too: The Nuggets, who have dropped three in a row since a 126-113 win over Utah in Game 1, have not lost four straight games all season long. In fact, this is just the third time Denver has had a three-game slide all season (and the first time it happened, the Nuggets snapped out of their funk with a 105-95 victory against – you guessed it! – the Jazz in Utah). Also, prior to losing the last three games, Denver had beaten Utah five out of six times and gone 8-0-2 ATS in the previous 10 clashes.
And the last time Utah beat Denver as many as four straight times was when it had a 6-0 SU and ATS run in the rivalry from the 2005-06 to 2006-07 seasons.
Bottom line: I’m not suggesting the Nuggets will rally all the way back and win this series, but they will win this Game 5 tonight and they’ll win it convincingly. After all, Denver is on ATS runs of 40-17-2 as a home favorite of five to 10½ points and 8-2 ATS when laying that spread margin in the playoffs, while the Jazz are in ATS ruts of 1-5 as an underdog, 4-16-1 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 2-7 in playoff games as a ‘dog in that range.
0-1-1 yesterday MINUS 5 dimes...overall, 27-30-3 PLUS 5 Dimes.
Wednesday's Action 20 Dime: DENVER NUGGETS
Nuggets
Last night, we saw two teams return home with their backs against the wall – Dallas down 3-1 to San Antonio; the Lakers tied up with the upstart Thunder. What happened? The Mavs cruised by 22 points, and the Lakers rolled by 24.
Tonight, the Nuggets find themselves back home in the same must-win situation against Utah. And like the Lakers and Mavericks last night, Denver is primed for a big-time blowout. There’s just no way a team led by veterans like Chauncey Billups, Carmelo Anthony and Kenyon Martin are going to go down without a fight – not on their home court.
Besides that, while I’m sure the Jazz want to win – badly – there’s something that happens to teams when they go on the road with a chance to close out a series. They just can’t match the home team’s intensity or summon up the kind of killer instinct needed to wrap things up. We saw it happen with the Celtics in Game 4 in Miami, and we saw it happen with the Spurs in Game 5 in Dallas last night. And you could also argue that the Cavaliers (Game 3 in Chicago), Hawks (Games 2 and 4 in Milwaukee) and Suns (Game 4 in Portland) suffered similar letdowns.
It will take a Herculean effort by the Jazz to reverse that trend and match Denver’s physical and emotional energy tonight – and I’m not even talking about Utah’s chances of actually winning this game. I’m saying it will be nearly impossible for Utah to avoid getting blown out.
Keep this in mind, too: The Nuggets, who have dropped three in a row since a 126-113 win over Utah in Game 1, have not lost four straight games all season long. In fact, this is just the third time Denver has had a three-game slide all season (and the first time it happened, the Nuggets snapped out of their funk with a 105-95 victory against – you guessed it! – the Jazz in Utah). Also, prior to losing the last three games, Denver had beaten Utah five out of six times and gone 8-0-2 ATS in the previous 10 clashes.
And the last time Utah beat Denver as many as four straight times was when it had a 6-0 SU and ATS run in the rivalry from the 2005-06 to 2006-07 seasons.
Bottom line: I’m not suggesting the Nuggets will rally all the way back and win this series, but they will win this Game 5 tonight and they’ll win it convincingly. After all, Denver is on ATS runs of 40-17-2 as a home favorite of five to 10½ points and 8-2 ATS when laying that spread margin in the playoffs, while the Jazz are in ATS ruts of 1-5 as an underdog, 4-16-1 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 2-7 in playoff games as a ‘dog in that range.
DUNKEL NBA
Milwaukee at Atlanta
The Bucks look to build on their 12-3 ATS record in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+9)
Game 537-538: Milwaukee at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 120.033; Atlanta 121.898
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+9); Over
Game 541-542: Utah at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 116.324; Denver 124.905
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 8 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6 1/2; 215
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under
Milwaukee at Atlanta
The Bucks look to build on their 12-3 ATS record in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+9)
Game 537-538: Milwaukee at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 120.033; Atlanta 121.898
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+9); Over
Game 541-542: Utah at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 116.324; Denver 124.905
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 8 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6 1/2; 215
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under
DUNKEL
MLB
Cincinnati at Houston
The Reds look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 1-8 in its last 9 games as a favorite from -110 to -150. Cincinnati is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105)
Game 951-952: San Diego at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 16.171; Florida (Robertson) 15.225
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.389; Milwaukee (Narveson) 14.781
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Over
Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ely) 14.865; NY Mets (Maine) 14.729
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 957-958: Washington at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 15.501; Cubs (Dempster) 16.619
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-200); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-200); N/A
Game 959-960: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Benson) 15.881; Colorado (Smith) 15.029
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 11
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+130); Over
Game 961-962: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.224; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150); Under
Game 963-964: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.242; Houston (Paulino) 14.334
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Under
Game 965-966: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 14.082; St. Louis (Garcia) 15.222
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.151; Kansas City (Meche) 16.297
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Under
Game 969-970: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 16.204; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.277
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over
Game 971-972: Cleveland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.582; LA Angels (Santana) 15.229
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); Over
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.486; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.468
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-225); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-225); Over
Game 975-976: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.705; Toronto (Cecil) 14.572
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Over
Game 977-978: Oakland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.556; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.333
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+145); Under
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 15.805; Texas (Harden) 14.179
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Under
MLB
Cincinnati at Houston
The Reds look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 1-8 in its last 9 games as a favorite from -110 to -150. Cincinnati is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105)
Game 951-952: San Diego at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 16.171; Florida (Robertson) 15.225
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.389; Milwaukee (Narveson) 14.781
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Over
Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ely) 14.865; NY Mets (Maine) 14.729
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 957-958: Washington at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 15.501; Cubs (Dempster) 16.619
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-200); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-200); N/A
Game 959-960: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Benson) 15.881; Colorado (Smith) 15.029
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 11
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+130); Over
Game 961-962: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.224; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150); Under
Game 963-964: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.242; Houston (Paulino) 14.334
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Under
Game 965-966: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 14.082; St. Louis (Garcia) 15.222
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.151; Kansas City (Meche) 16.297
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Under
Game 969-970: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 16.204; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.277
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over
Game 971-972: Cleveland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.582; LA Angels (Santana) 15.229
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); Over
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.486; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.468
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-225); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-225); Over
Game 975-976: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.705; Toronto (Cecil) 14.572
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Over
Game 977-978: Oakland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.556; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.333
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+145); Under
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 15.805; Texas (Harden) 14.179
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Under
DUNKEL
NHL
Montreal at Washington
The Capitals look to clinch the series and take advantage of a Montreal team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Washington is the pick (-310) according to Dunkel, which has the Caps favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-310)
Game 19-20: Montreal at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.693; Washington 11.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-310); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-310); Over
NHL
Montreal at Washington
The Capitals look to clinch the series and take advantage of a Montreal team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Washington is the pick (-310) according to Dunkel, which has the Caps favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-310)
Game 19-20: Montreal at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.693; Washington 11.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-310); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-310); Over
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +1.05 over FLORIDA
Note the 12:10 PM EST start. Kevin Correia has been rock solid over four starts thus far and that includes a start in both Cincinnati and Arizona, two of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. Correia has allowed just 17 hits in 23 frames for a BAA of .202. His 1.13 WHIP is also impressive, as is his strikeout rate of 22 batters in 23 innings. Correia has won his last three starts while allowing only four runs in 17 innings and he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his last start. Nate Robertson allowed six runs in his only home start this year against the Reds. Robertson is a career stiff that’ll throw a good game from time to time but more often than not he’ll allow four or five runs. His command is average, his career ERA is 4.91 and that’s over a span of 173 starts. Nate Robertson is one of the more unappealing favorites in the league and when he is the chalk it’s recommended to go against him because his career record of 53-70 and career ERA of 4.91 is a true indicator of who he is. Play: San Diego +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.41 over MILWAUKEE (1st 5 innings)
Note the 1:10 PM EST start. The Pirates got an important win last night after going through what might be the roughest stretch any team will go through this year. The Pirates were outscored by an incredible count of 55-12 over a seven-game losing streak before last night’s 7-3 win. A single win will do wonders to a team’s psyche and morale. Even in that 17-3 loss on Monday the Pirates showed some signs of breaking out, as they had eight hits and left 11 runners stranded. This afternoon they’ll face a reliever by the name of Chris Narveson. Narveson has appeared in nine games this season, all in relief, and only twice in those nine games did he not allow a run. In fact, in those two games he didn’t allow a run he was asked to get one out only. In 10 innings of relief he’s allowed 17 hits and walked seven for an off the charts WHIP of 2.40, a BAA of .381 and an ERA of 7.20. Frankly, it does not matter who is pitching for the Brewers, as this choice is all about playing against Narveson. Play: Pittsburgh +1.45 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
ST. LOUIS –1½ +1.33 over Atlanta
The Braves are a team is serious trouble. They blew two late leads in this series already and have now dropped seven in a row. The Braves offense is hitting a measly .228 on the year and that’s after facing a whole slew of stiffs that include guys like Kyle Kendricks, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer and Jonathon Niese to name a few. Looking at the Braves line-up and it’s easy to see why they’re losing. Nate McClouth is hitting .149, Troy Glaus is batting .200, Jason Heyward is down to .224, leadoff man Yunel Escobar is hitting .192, Chipper Jones is batting .259 and Melky Cabrera is hitting .179. Now the Braves will face a pitcher they’ve never seen and that can’t work in their favor. Jamie Garcia has oonly allowed 12 hits in 19 frames and has a BAA of .179 to go along with an impressive ERA of 1.42. Two starts ago when Garcia faced the Mets, another weak hitting line-up, he threw a seven-inning, one-hit gem. The Card should easily have its way with Braves starter, Kenshin Kawakami. Kawakami has just six k’s in three starts this season and that reveals he isn’t fooling anyone. In his last two starts he faced 50 batters combined and 27 of them flew out while just 15 hit the ball on the ground, another troubling indication of potential disaster. The Braves pen is a mess, the whole team is reeling big time and it sure does not figure to end here. Play: St. Louis –1½ +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –1½ +1.06 over TORONTO
Speaking of teams that are reeling and one need not look further than the Blue Jays. The Jays have lost five straight and when they don’t go yard they don’t score runs. The best news for Red Sox backers is that the Jays will face a struggling Jon Lester here but there’s no reason to worry about Lester’s slow start. He’s faced some of the top hitting teams in the AL and he’s just too good to sustain his bad run much longer. Lester has dominated the current crop of Jays hitters and this one should be no different. On the other side is Brett Cecil and the current Red Sox hitter’s has had no trouble figuring him out. Cecil faced the Red Sox twice last year and all they did was hit .415 off him to go along with seven bombs. The Jays are 0-2 at home against lefties and despite his slow start, Lester is one of the best lefties in the game and will very likely dominate this line-up again. Play: Boston –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON –2.82 over Montreal
The only reason to make this wager would be if you bet on the Canadiens to win the series after game five at odds of 8-1. This is simply a hedge bet to free-roll on the Canadiens and that’s all there is to it. Do not count the Canadiens out here, as they have a great chance to knock off the Caps. They’ve actually played better in Washington than they have at home and if not for a couple of bad bounces, the Caps would already be watching the playoffs from the rail. All the pressure in the world is on the Caps for this one and in a similar situation last season, that is, a game seven at home, the Penguins blew away this host. Now, I’m not comparing the Canadiens to the Penguins but Montreal has been the better team in Washington and will in no way be intimidated in this setting. The Habs carry a ton of momentum, a hot goalie and no pressure whatsoever into this game seven while the Caps blew its chance to close out the series in game five and are now feeling very uneasy. Varlamov could also crack under this pressure. Anyway, we’ll root for the Canadiens and the worst that could happen is we break even but of the Habs win we’ll profit over five units. Hopefully, most of you are in the same position. Play: Washington –2.82 (Risking 2.82 units to win 1).
San Diego +1.05 over FLORIDA
Note the 12:10 PM EST start. Kevin Correia has been rock solid over four starts thus far and that includes a start in both Cincinnati and Arizona, two of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. Correia has allowed just 17 hits in 23 frames for a BAA of .202. His 1.13 WHIP is also impressive, as is his strikeout rate of 22 batters in 23 innings. Correia has won his last three starts while allowing only four runs in 17 innings and he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his last start. Nate Robertson allowed six runs in his only home start this year against the Reds. Robertson is a career stiff that’ll throw a good game from time to time but more often than not he’ll allow four or five runs. His command is average, his career ERA is 4.91 and that’s over a span of 173 starts. Nate Robertson is one of the more unappealing favorites in the league and when he is the chalk it’s recommended to go against him because his career record of 53-70 and career ERA of 4.91 is a true indicator of who he is. Play: San Diego +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.41 over MILWAUKEE (1st 5 innings)
Note the 1:10 PM EST start. The Pirates got an important win last night after going through what might be the roughest stretch any team will go through this year. The Pirates were outscored by an incredible count of 55-12 over a seven-game losing streak before last night’s 7-3 win. A single win will do wonders to a team’s psyche and morale. Even in that 17-3 loss on Monday the Pirates showed some signs of breaking out, as they had eight hits and left 11 runners stranded. This afternoon they’ll face a reliever by the name of Chris Narveson. Narveson has appeared in nine games this season, all in relief, and only twice in those nine games did he not allow a run. In fact, in those two games he didn’t allow a run he was asked to get one out only. In 10 innings of relief he’s allowed 17 hits and walked seven for an off the charts WHIP of 2.40, a BAA of .381 and an ERA of 7.20. Frankly, it does not matter who is pitching for the Brewers, as this choice is all about playing against Narveson. Play: Pittsburgh +1.45 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
ST. LOUIS –1½ +1.33 over Atlanta
The Braves are a team is serious trouble. They blew two late leads in this series already and have now dropped seven in a row. The Braves offense is hitting a measly .228 on the year and that’s after facing a whole slew of stiffs that include guys like Kyle Kendricks, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer and Jonathon Niese to name a few. Looking at the Braves line-up and it’s easy to see why they’re losing. Nate McClouth is hitting .149, Troy Glaus is batting .200, Jason Heyward is down to .224, leadoff man Yunel Escobar is hitting .192, Chipper Jones is batting .259 and Melky Cabrera is hitting .179. Now the Braves will face a pitcher they’ve never seen and that can’t work in their favor. Jamie Garcia has oonly allowed 12 hits in 19 frames and has a BAA of .179 to go along with an impressive ERA of 1.42. Two starts ago when Garcia faced the Mets, another weak hitting line-up, he threw a seven-inning, one-hit gem. The Card should easily have its way with Braves starter, Kenshin Kawakami. Kawakami has just six k’s in three starts this season and that reveals he isn’t fooling anyone. In his last two starts he faced 50 batters combined and 27 of them flew out while just 15 hit the ball on the ground, another troubling indication of potential disaster. The Braves pen is a mess, the whole team is reeling big time and it sure does not figure to end here. Play: St. Louis –1½ +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –1½ +1.06 over TORONTO
Speaking of teams that are reeling and one need not look further than the Blue Jays. The Jays have lost five straight and when they don’t go yard they don’t score runs. The best news for Red Sox backers is that the Jays will face a struggling Jon Lester here but there’s no reason to worry about Lester’s slow start. He’s faced some of the top hitting teams in the AL and he’s just too good to sustain his bad run much longer. Lester has dominated the current crop of Jays hitters and this one should be no different. On the other side is Brett Cecil and the current Red Sox hitter’s has had no trouble figuring him out. Cecil faced the Red Sox twice last year and all they did was hit .415 off him to go along with seven bombs. The Jays are 0-2 at home against lefties and despite his slow start, Lester is one of the best lefties in the game and will very likely dominate this line-up again. Play: Boston –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON –2.82 over Montreal
The only reason to make this wager would be if you bet on the Canadiens to win the series after game five at odds of 8-1. This is simply a hedge bet to free-roll on the Canadiens and that’s all there is to it. Do not count the Canadiens out here, as they have a great chance to knock off the Caps. They’ve actually played better in Washington than they have at home and if not for a couple of bad bounces, the Caps would already be watching the playoffs from the rail. All the pressure in the world is on the Caps for this one and in a similar situation last season, that is, a game seven at home, the Penguins blew away this host. Now, I’m not comparing the Canadiens to the Penguins but Montreal has been the better team in Washington and will in no way be intimidated in this setting. The Habs carry a ton of momentum, a hot goalie and no pressure whatsoever into this game seven while the Caps blew its chance to close out the series in game five and are now feeling very uneasy. Varlamov could also crack under this pressure. Anyway, we’ll root for the Canadiens and the worst that could happen is we break even but of the Habs win we’ll profit over five units. Hopefully, most of you are in the same position. Play: Washington –2.82 (Risking 2.82 units to win 1).
Bill Marzano
Athletics at Rays
Pick: A's +150
I like the Oakland A's in this game vs the TB Rays...that's not easy for me to say and its never easy betting against your team and the team with the best overall record in baseball...I like the pitching matchup and I think D.Braden will keep the Rays hitters off balance all night...the Rays have really struggled vs lefties except for one game when they bashed M.Buehlre...the A's are 4-0 in Braden's four starts and has only given up 18 hits in 26 IP...I like Oakland
Athletics at Rays
Pick: A's +150
I like the Oakland A's in this game vs the TB Rays...that's not easy for me to say and its never easy betting against your team and the team with the best overall record in baseball...I like the pitching matchup and I think D.Braden will keep the Rays hitters off balance all night...the Rays have really struggled vs lefties except for one game when they bashed M.Buehlre...the A's are 4-0 in Braden's four starts and has only given up 18 hits in 26 IP...I like Oakland
