Dan Bebe
NBA LEANS
Bucks @ Hawks - Atlanta by 8.5 with a total of 191. No one is happier with this change of venue than the Hawks, who crushed the Bucks twice at home before going on the road and just getting outplayed for all 96 minutes. This Atlanta team just seems like the same old story, yet again. Very strong at home, and can't win on the road, even against a completely out-classed opponent like Milwaukee. I'm curious to see how the world feels about this series, now. The Bucks dominated the Hawks in those games in Wisconsin, and just shot the heck out of the ball. The question is whether some of that confidence they built rolls over into these road games. I'm inclined to think Atlanta gets the juices going again, and they win this game, but 8.5 is a huge number. The dilemma we face when making a call on this one is whether this line is high because Atlanta is going to really dominate, or if it's high because folks assume Atlanta is going to dominate. Tough call, but I happen to think the Hawks squeak by with a low double-digit win. It won't be an easy cover, but we'll see 10-11 points. The total of 191 is intriguing, if only because the last game hit 215 on a posted mark of 189.5, and only got adjusted by a point and a half. That has to make you think the oddsmakers are expecting a poorer shooting night, and I'll run with that little tip of the hand. Lean to the Under.
Jazz @ Nuggets - Denver by 6.5 with a total of 215. This is another desperation game, and we might get some additional value on whichever side we like after we see how a team like Dallas plays last night in a similar spot. I'm a little surprised at how high this line came out, but a lot of that is because of the desperation spot being factored into the line. Denver has been positively embarrassed in each of the last three straight by the Jazz, and they just showed almost no heart in trying to fight from behind. Honestly, this series is similar to the Dallas series if only because one team is up 3-1. Beyond that, I'm not sure there's all that much in common. Dallas has been IN just about every game, but seemed to hit one cold spell that cost them games. Denver just seems to give up the moment Utah goes on a little run, showing no heart, and now the Nuggets locker room is getting called out by its superstar, Carmelo Anthony. So, can the Nuggets "man up" and get a home win? Well, they certainly shoot the ball better at home, but they're just not playing any defense, so it's tough to see them covering 7 points even if they win. We also know Denver is going to want to bring the fireworks here, since their best shot of winning the game is opening things up. Utah is going to be the team that fights harder, and pushes you around a little bit more, so if Denver can open up the game, make things wild, they can win, and could potentially even cover. If you like Denver, you have to like the Over. If you like Utah, you don't necessarily have to like the Under. Thus, no real lean on the side yet, but slight lean to the Over. Potential notes on these leans could be updated in due time
