jeff benton wednesday
0-1 last night (surprise he lost). 17-21-1 MINUS 125 dimes since my debut posting.
Wednesday's Action 20 Dime: BRAVES ... NOTE: List Tommy Hanson as Atlanta's starting pitcher. If Hanson does NOT start, this play is VOID!
5 Dime: SPURS (plus the points)
Braves
So the Padres exploded for 17 runs in Monday’s home opener against Atlanta. Good for them, because they’ll be lucky to score 17 runs combined through the rest of the eight games on this homestand – and I’m not even kidding. This is one BAD offensive team, and Monday’s 10-run fourth-inning doesn’t erase that fact.
Seriously, San Diego opened the season with a six-game road trip to Arizona and Colorado – two of the BEST hitters ballparks in the National League – and they scored a grand total of 19 runs, including getting held to seven runs in 32 innings (one game went 14 innings) at Coors Field. My point: What happened Monday at Petco Park – a notoriously difficult place to hit – is the flukiest of flukes, and there’s no doubt in my mind we’ll see the “real” Padres offense in this one.
One of the reasons I’m very much convinced of that is hard-throwing young right-hander Tommy Hanson is starting for Atlanta tonight. Hanson has nasty stuff, and his numbers bear that out. Since a shaky major-league debut (seven runs allowed in six innings vs. Milwaukee), he’s surrendered three runs or fewer in 16 of 20 starts, giving up two runs or less in 14 of those contests. And since that debut, he hasn’t once allowed more than four runs in a game.
One of Hanson’s gems last year came in San Diego, when he limited the weak-hitting, strikeout-prone Padres to two runs in six innings, cruising to a 6-2 victory. In all, Hanson made 10 road starts last year and went 4-2 with a solid 2.61 ERA, striking out 43 and walking just 22 in 58 2/3 innings.
Even though the Braves got spanked on Monday, they’re still 17-7 in the last 24 meetings overall and 10-4 in their last 14 games in San Diego. In fact, prior to Monday, Atlanta had won four of five at Petco Park, and in the four wins, the Padres tallied 2, 2, 3 and 1 run.
What about Padres starter Clayton Richard, you ask? Here’s all you need to know about the lefty: He faced the Braves in Atlanta last August and lasted all of 2 1/3 innings, giving up six runs on eight hits in a 9-1 loss.
The Braves are still 11-3 in their last 14 on the highway, 9-1 in their last 10 as a road favorite and 43-20 in their last 63 after a day off. Lay the chalk in this one, and watch how Hanson dominates a punchless Padres lineup that has slugger Adrian Gonzalez and little else.
Spurs
You didn’t think I was going to pass up one last opportunity to go against the Dallas Mavericks at home before the playoffs start, did you? Sure, this is a very meaningful game for the Mavs, who need to win (or hope Utah loses at home to Phoenix) to secure the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. But that doesn’t mean the Spurs are going to lay down like dogs. San Antonio needs a victory to move up to the No. 6 slot in the West and avoid a first-round matchup with the rival Mavericks.
So this figures to be one of those rare instances where two teams that have already clinched playoff spots given an all-out effort in the season finale. But let’s be honest: I’m taking the points because you pretty much have to whenever Dallas is at home.
To review: Since beating the Spurs 99-94 in overtime as a three-point home favorite on Nov. 18, the Mavs have gone 5-29-2 ATS at home, including 4-27-2 ATS as a home favorite. The word “abysmal” comes to mind.
True, Dallas comes into this game on a 7-2 SU and ATS roll overall, including four straight wins and covers in its last four games. This four-game ATS run matches the Mavericks’ longest of the season (that came back in mid-November, with the fourth one – ironically – coming in that overtime win over the Spurs). You know the last time the Mavs cashed in five straight games? From March 8-16 … in 2008, more than two years ago!
Meanwhile, the Spurs are playing strong basketball down the stretch. Like Dallas, they’re also on a 7-2 SU and ATS run, including taking three of their last four on the road (with wins at Denver and the Lakers mixed in). Since the end of February, San Antonio is 18-7 SU and ATS, cashing in 10 of its last 14 on the road. It is also 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after a day off and 4-0 ATS in its last four when coming off a double-digit win (the Spurs beat Memphis 133-111 on Monday).
As for this rivalry, it’s belonged to the underdog the last several years, with the pup cashing in 19 of the last 28 meetings. In the end, I won’t be surprised if Dallas wins this game. But I won’t be surprised if they lose outright, either. What will shock me is if the Mavs blowout out San Antonio and cover the spread.