SPORTS ADVISORS
Miami (39-35, 34-38-2 ATS) at Dallas (44-30, 36-38 ATS)
The Mavericks, looking to hold onto the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, play host to the Heat, who visit American Airlines Center trying to wrap up their own postseason berth.
Dallas rebounded from Sunday’s ugly 102-74 loss in Cleveland as an 8½-point road underdog with Tuesday’s 108-88 drubbing of Minnesota, cashing as an eight-point favorite to end a brief two-game road trip. The Mavericks, who lead Phoenix by four games for the last playoff spot in the West, return to the comforts of home, where they’re 26-9 SU this season, averaging 105.6 points per game and allowing 100.2. However, the last time it was at American Airlines Center, Dallas suffered a heartbreaking 103-101 loss to Denver as a 3½-point chalk, ending a nine-game home winning streak (7-2 ATS).
Miami fell to Orlando 101-95 as a 2½-point pup Monday night to drop to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four starts. The Heat have really struggled on the road lately, losing six of their last seven and going 2-6 ATS in their last eight. For the season, Miami is 13-23 as a visitor (16-19-1 ATS) while averaging just 95.6 ppg and allowing 100 ppg.
Dallas has won five straight in this rivalry (2-2-1 ATS), including a 111-96 rout as a two-point road chalk in January, the only previous meeting this season. The Mavs are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 clashes, but the underdog is on a 6-2-1 ATS run, and the road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Mavericks have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four starts against winning teams, but they are otherwise on positive ATS streaks of 7-3 at home, 21-8-1 on Wednesday, 7-1 at home against teams with a losing road record and 4-1 against Southeast Division foes. The Heat have covered in five of their last seven Wednesday starts, but they are on ATS skids of 1-5 against the Southwest Division, 2-5 on the highway and 2-6 on the road against teams with a winning home record.
The under for the Heat is on runs of 4-1 overall, 9-2 against the Southwest Division and 5-2 on the road, and the under for Dallas is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 playing on no rest and 6-2 against Southeast Division foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER
Houston (48-26, 36-37-1 ATS) at Phoenix (40-34, 30-42-2 ATS)
The Suns, currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the Western Conference playoff chase, aim to keep their dwindling postseason hopes alive when they take on the surging Rockets at U.S. Airways Center.
Phoenix tumbled to Sacramento, the league’s worst team, 126-118 as a six-point road chalk Sunday and has now followed a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS run by losing its last three games (1-2 ATS), all on the road. For the season, the Suns are averaging 109 ppg, but they give up just a shade less at 107.2, ranking 27th out of 30 teams in the league in scoring defense. At home, though, Phoenix is slightly better, putting up 111.6 ppg and allowing 105.9.
Houston trounced the Clippers 110-93 Saturday, narrowly covering as an overwhelming 15½-point home favorite to move to 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in its last six games. During that stretch, the Rockets have outscored their opponents by an average of nearly seven points per game, putting up 98.5 ppg while yielding 91.7, including road wins over New Orleans and San Antonio.
Houston has won the last three meetings between these two squads (2-1 ATS), though Phoenix cashed as a 5½-point ‘dog in a 116-112 road loss on March 6, giving the visitor an impressive 13-5 ATS mark in the last 18 clashes. The Suns are on a 10-3 ATS run in this rivalry, and the pup has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five contests, including the Rockets’ 94-82 win as a 3½-point ‘dog in their first trip to Phoenix this season on Nov. 12.
The Suns are on ATS slides of 3-9 against Southwest Division opponents and 5-11 against winning teams, but they’ve also gone 4-1 ATS in their last five home starts and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a pointspread setback. The Rockets, meanwhile, are on ATS upticks of 6-1 on the highway, 4-1 against the West and 6-2 going on three or more days of rest, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 2-6 against the Pacific Division and 7-20-1 after a spread-cover.
The over for Phoenix is on runs of 4-1 against the Southwest Division and 20-6 on Wednesday. On the flip side, the under for Houston is on tears of 8-3 overall, 7-0 on the highway, 7-2 after a SU win and 7-2 against the West. Furthermore, the total has stayed below the posted price in six of the Rockets’ last seven trips to Phoenix.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL
Oregon State (17-17, 15-14 ATS) at UTEP (22-13, 19-12-1 ATS)
Oregon State claimed the opener of the best-of-3 championship round of the second annual College Basketball Invitational, winning 75-69 as a one-point home underdog Monday night, and the series now moves to El Paso for Game 2 and, if necessary, Game 3. The Beavers have won and cashed in all four of their CBI starts to finally get their record to .500, but all four games were on their home court, two of which went to overtime. In fact, Monday’s seven-point win was their largest margin of victory in this event.
Prior to Monday’s setback at Oregon State, UTEP had gone 3-0 SU and ATS in the CBI and was on a 5-1 SU and ATS run overall. The Miners also had scored at least 70 points in seven consecutive games before the loss at Oregon State, averaging 78.3 points per game during this stretch.
The SU winner is now 8-0 ATS in UTEP’s last eight games and 12-0 ATS in Oregon State’s last 12 starts.
UTEP is averaging 75.9 ppg this season at home, while allowing 69.4 ppg in going 12-4 SU (7-6 ATS in lined contests). Oregon State has put up just 57.5 ppg on the highway, nearly nine points less than its opponents (66.2 ppg), going 4-9 SU (5-7 ATS in lined games).
Along with their current 4-0 ATS run, the Beavers are on pointspread upswings of 4-0 in non-conference action, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-1 after a spread-cover. But they are also 1-4 ATS in their last five road starts, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Wednesday outings and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 roadies against teams with a winning home record.
The Miners are on ATS rolls of 5-2 overall, 7-1-1 in non-conference contests and 7-3 after a non-cover.
Monday’s contest easily cleared the posted price of 130, and UTEP is on “over” stretches of 6-0 overall and 36-15-1 in non-conference play. The over is also 5-2 in Oregon State’s last seven road games. However, the under is 9-4 in Oregon State’s last 13 games following a SU win, and the total has stayed low in five of the Miners’ last seven home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTEP