VR’s Morning Moves - Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Report Status: WEDNESDAY MARCH 3rd, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on THURSDAY 3-4-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for WEDNESDAY MARCH 3rd, 2010
HANDICAPPING & SPORTS BETTING : PART 1 = “MIDDLES & SCALPS…CLOSE to FREE MONEY”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Another “Morning Moves” CBB Winner last night, and we’ll look to add another one to the ledger with tonight’s wager…
Subscribers will also be getting “2” BIG BOMBS on Tonight’s Premium Card…As we unload another 3* BIG SLICK (5-1 on L/6...63% ATS Since May)…and my 4* GAME OF THE MONTH…
And before we get to today’s topic, I wanted to take a moment to THANK all of my clients/partners for your continued support…Because the New Rankings are out…And together, we have managed to remain RANKED #1 in CBB…and have also moved up and are now RANKED #2 in NBA as well…for “MOST MONEY WON”…
We are also RANKED #1 COMBINED (NBA & CBB) BASKETBALL at The Sports Monitor…for “MOST NET MONEY WON”…and “MOST NET GAMES WON”…
So I really want to let you know how much I appreciate all of you guys…You have really made me a more efficient sports bettor and handicapper than I ever was…And I know that with your help, I will continue to have the drive needed to constantly improve…So Thank You…
Now let’s move on to today’s topic…Because this is extremely important for anyone looking to profit by betting into this market…And we will look to define “Middles & Scalps” in Part 1, and then move on to more deeper and detailed ways to do BOTH…
I’m sure that by now you know how important I think it is for sports bettors to be more diversified than simply looking to bet the winning sides or totals…Because this is a market, and like any market…if you aren’t taking full advantage of all the profitable opportunities available…then you are doing a huge dis-service to yourself and more importantly, your bankroll….
Because as important as it obviously is to try and beat the books by taking more winning positions than you do losing ones…It’s just as important to make sure you are trying to add to your bottom line by “Earning”…
“Earning” will not only help your bottom line…but it will also help you begin looking at this as a “market”…Because we all know how easy it is to lose sight of that since we all have a passion for sports…And that’s ok, because having a passion for sports can be a good thing…But with that said, you also need to do what we discussed in a past Newsletter where I asked you to take a step back and really ask yourself “Why You Bet”…
Then based on that answer…”Ask yourself if every action you make is aimed at achieving that reason”
If your answer is “To Make Money”…then you definitely need to be attempting “Middles & Scalps”…Because they are a good way to “earn” and increase your bottom line with very little risk…
For starters, you need to set aside a portion of your bankroll for “Middles & Scalps”…Because they are a totally different venture than your daily straight bets…And just like we do with our Futures, we need to also separate our bankroll for “Earning”…
This way, you don’t allow whatever else you may be doing get in the way of your “Middles & Scalps”…These are separate investments that must be treated as such…And they require almost robotic like maneuvers based on a set of rules & principles that keep it very simple…
Let’s go ahead and define BOTH, because although similar…there are also some major differences…
When we try to “Middle”…what we are simply doing is wagering on BOTH sides or totals on the SAME GAME…And our goal is to get a good enough number on each of the sides, to allow for the final score to fall in the “middle”…and allow us to win BOTH wagers…And to do this, the only amount of money that we risk losing, is the vig…Which is ultimately a small risk, for a huge reward…
There are many ways that you can increase your potential to profit when attempting “Middles”…And we will cover them in Part 2, when I pass along some of the ways that I work “middles” daily…
But what I want you to understand today, is simply that a “Middle” is an attempt to win BOTH bets, by taking the opposite side or total…of the SAME game…And you do this by having the final score end in the “Middle”…
“Scalping” is different because you are primarily using the “Money-Lines” to profit with…And once again, you will be wagering on BOTH sides or totals in the SAME game…But this time, rather than hope for a “Middle”…you are hoping for the winner to be the side which pays more…
Meaning, you are looking for a spot where you can take TEAM A -110 and TEAM B +115...
In that situation, you ONLY stand to WIN money and you can’t actually lose any…Because if TEAM A wins then you break even, but if TEAM B wins then you win the +115 and lose the -110...and are left with a Profit, or what I like to call FREE MONEY…
And there are opportunities for this FREE MONEY each and everyday in our market…Now obviously when there was more of a competition for players, we had a better chance at bigger inefficiencies in the market…And also before books began moving on “air” (covered in previous Newsletter), there was a lot more opportunities out there…But even today, with some books still using a 20cent line…you can find some chances to “Earn” for FREE…
You don’t just have to look for Money-Lines on Teams…Because there are ML’s on Props…there are ML’s on many totals (NHL & MLB)…and there are so many other sports where you can find these inefficiencies in the market and ultimately “scalp” them to death…
I will admit that a day don’t go by that I don’t have a handful of “Middles” & “Scalps” working…In fact, when the off-shore books were giving much more generous “re-load bonuses” and “Bonus Plays”…we actually had a room that was focused entirely on putting money into play to extract a profit from those bonuses…And although it would need it’s own Newsletter to explain how we did it and what exactly we were doing…I will tell you that our ability to “Middle” & “Scalp” is what really made it all possible and extremely profitable for everyone involved…And when more bettors began doing the same things that we were…the off-shore sports books had to lower their “Bonuses” and change their rules for good…Because everyone was “Earning” with little or no risk at all…Kind of like what today’s topic is about…
So I have no problem telling you to go out and do the same…Because like I said at the top, there is a huge reward for very little risk…And in some instances…NO RISK at all…
What you really need to be able to do this…other than capital, is PATIENCE and NO EGO…Meaning, you need to be extremely patient because many times you can go a few weeks without a successful middle…But then in one weekend, cash 3 of them and make your profit for the month…And you need just as much patience to scalp and sometimes even more because you have to know when the best time to pull the trigger is…and also, many times the profit margin will be very small…But you have to start somewhere if you ever want to get somewhere else…
Because many times, you scalp may be as small as TEAM A -105 and TEAM B +107...Meaning that you make $2 on every $100 that you put into play…So you would need $1000 to make $20...And for some, they may look at it as nickel & dime profit…But nothing could be further from the truth, because even a 1% Return on Investment for a 3hr game without any risk at all is what “Earning” is all about…And you can’t make BIG MONEY when you don’t even know how to make SMALL MONEY…
Believe me, it all begins to add up in time…And before you know it, those $100 “Middles” & “Scalps” turn into DIME$…But the only way for that to happen is to begin putting those $100s into play and putting them out there to “Earn” for you…They do very little just sitting there, except lose value…
And you can’t allow your ego to get in the way of what appears to be a profitable middle…And I will discuss what that means in the next issue…But what this simply means is that you need to leave your opinion for who is going to win or lose out of the equation…Because what you are using to profit with is the price and the inefficiencies of this market…Not the fact that a line is weak or beatable…That is not what “Middles & Scalps” are about…So it requires you to follow certain rules and procedures and leave your opinion at the door…Because the purpose of the wager is to put yourself in a profitable position without needing to handicapp the match-up…You simply need to handicapp the market…
There is no factor more important to building a bankroll than putting your money into play when you are getting the best of it…And there is no denying that when you are able to hit a “middle” or “scalp” a game…that you are getting the very best of it…
I have seen bettors who have made their living and are successful by doing nothing other than “middle” and “scalps”…Meaning, they don’t make bets for any other purpose because they prefer to profit by using this market to make investments that offer the least amount of risk possible…
Now I am not sure if we will need just 1 more or a few more parts to this series to make sure that you fully understand what “Middles” & “Scalps” are…And more importantly, I want to make sure that I pass along many of the ways that I do BOTH each and everyday…to help my bottom line…Because there is no better information, than the kind that you can put into practical use…
And I will definitely be showing you how to do this for yourself…And then it’s up to you whether or not you want to put it to use…and diversify your investments in this market…
Thanks again for all your support…and best of luck, Vegas-Runner…
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 754 AUBURN +2.5
This line should definitely drop…According to a handful of “runners” that I’ve already spoken to…most Outfits have AUBURN on their “Buy-List”…And the only delay is based on hoping someone may adjust up to +3, expecting money on the favorite by the betting public…
But I don’t think that’s going to happen and when the Wiseguys agree, then I see them going out and taking a position at +2.5...And possibly at +2 as well, which would definitely force a much bigger adjustment…Regardless, I don’t believe there will be enough public money the other way to stop the books from being forced to adjust when the “steam” comes…So this line will most likely move in one direction the rest of the way…DOWN…VR
Wed, 03/03/10 - 10:35 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Total
double-dime bet 724 LAC / 723 PHO Under 210.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
** NBA "MORNING MOVES" 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
This Total is definitely INFLATED due to their last meeting, and according to my own Ratings...And that's ok by me, because there is a lot of VALUE on the UNDER...In fact, the Wiseguys have already forced the books to drop this Total a 1/2 Point from 211...And although that don't look like a huge adjustment, it definitely is when the betting public is expected to come in heavy on the Over...So the books dropping the line shows some definite respect for the Outfits that got down on the UNDER...I expect a much lower scoring game from both clubs...And I don't expect them to Both hit nearly 50% of their 3Pt shots like they did the last time they met...We'll go ahead and see if we can stay Perfect in March on Morning Moves...by also taking a 2* Position on the UNDER...VR
Report Status: WEDNESDAY MARCH 3rd, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on THURSDAY 3-4-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for WEDNESDAY MARCH 3rd, 2010
HANDICAPPING & SPORTS BETTING : PART 1 = “MIDDLES & SCALPS…CLOSE to FREE MONEY”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Another “Morning Moves” CBB Winner last night, and we’ll look to add another one to the ledger with tonight’s wager…
Subscribers will also be getting “2” BIG BOMBS on Tonight’s Premium Card…As we unload another 3* BIG SLICK (5-1 on L/6...63% ATS Since May)…and my 4* GAME OF THE MONTH…
And before we get to today’s topic, I wanted to take a moment to THANK all of my clients/partners for your continued support…Because the New Rankings are out…And together, we have managed to remain RANKED #1 in CBB…and have also moved up and are now RANKED #2 in NBA as well…for “MOST MONEY WON”…
We are also RANKED #1 COMBINED (NBA & CBB) BASKETBALL at The Sports Monitor…for “MOST NET MONEY WON”…and “MOST NET GAMES WON”…
So I really want to let you know how much I appreciate all of you guys…You have really made me a more efficient sports bettor and handicapper than I ever was…And I know that with your help, I will continue to have the drive needed to constantly improve…So Thank You…
Now let’s move on to today’s topic…Because this is extremely important for anyone looking to profit by betting into this market…And we will look to define “Middles & Scalps” in Part 1, and then move on to more deeper and detailed ways to do BOTH…
I’m sure that by now you know how important I think it is for sports bettors to be more diversified than simply looking to bet the winning sides or totals…Because this is a market, and like any market…if you aren’t taking full advantage of all the profitable opportunities available…then you are doing a huge dis-service to yourself and more importantly, your bankroll….
Because as important as it obviously is to try and beat the books by taking more winning positions than you do losing ones…It’s just as important to make sure you are trying to add to your bottom line by “Earning”…
“Earning” will not only help your bottom line…but it will also help you begin looking at this as a “market”…Because we all know how easy it is to lose sight of that since we all have a passion for sports…And that’s ok, because having a passion for sports can be a good thing…But with that said, you also need to do what we discussed in a past Newsletter where I asked you to take a step back and really ask yourself “Why You Bet”…
Then based on that answer…”Ask yourself if every action you make is aimed at achieving that reason”
If your answer is “To Make Money”…then you definitely need to be attempting “Middles & Scalps”…Because they are a good way to “earn” and increase your bottom line with very little risk…
For starters, you need to set aside a portion of your bankroll for “Middles & Scalps”…Because they are a totally different venture than your daily straight bets…And just like we do with our Futures, we need to also separate our bankroll for “Earning”…
This way, you don’t allow whatever else you may be doing get in the way of your “Middles & Scalps”…These are separate investments that must be treated as such…And they require almost robotic like maneuvers based on a set of rules & principles that keep it very simple…
Let’s go ahead and define BOTH, because although similar…there are also some major differences…
When we try to “Middle”…what we are simply doing is wagering on BOTH sides or totals on the SAME GAME…And our goal is to get a good enough number on each of the sides, to allow for the final score to fall in the “middle”…and allow us to win BOTH wagers…And to do this, the only amount of money that we risk losing, is the vig…Which is ultimately a small risk, for a huge reward…
There are many ways that you can increase your potential to profit when attempting “Middles”…And we will cover them in Part 2, when I pass along some of the ways that I work “middles” daily…
But what I want you to understand today, is simply that a “Middle” is an attempt to win BOTH bets, by taking the opposite side or total…of the SAME game…And you do this by having the final score end in the “Middle”…
“Scalping” is different because you are primarily using the “Money-Lines” to profit with…And once again, you will be wagering on BOTH sides or totals in the SAME game…But this time, rather than hope for a “Middle”…you are hoping for the winner to be the side which pays more…
Meaning, you are looking for a spot where you can take TEAM A -110 and TEAM B +115...
In that situation, you ONLY stand to WIN money and you can’t actually lose any…Because if TEAM A wins then you break even, but if TEAM B wins then you win the +115 and lose the -110...and are left with a Profit, or what I like to call FREE MONEY…
And there are opportunities for this FREE MONEY each and everyday in our market…Now obviously when there was more of a competition for players, we had a better chance at bigger inefficiencies in the market…And also before books began moving on “air” (covered in previous Newsletter), there was a lot more opportunities out there…But even today, with some books still using a 20cent line…you can find some chances to “Earn” for FREE…
You don’t just have to look for Money-Lines on Teams…Because there are ML’s on Props…there are ML’s on many totals (NHL & MLB)…and there are so many other sports where you can find these inefficiencies in the market and ultimately “scalp” them to death…
I will admit that a day don’t go by that I don’t have a handful of “Middles” & “Scalps” working…In fact, when the off-shore books were giving much more generous “re-load bonuses” and “Bonus Plays”…we actually had a room that was focused entirely on putting money into play to extract a profit from those bonuses…And although it would need it’s own Newsletter to explain how we did it and what exactly we were doing…I will tell you that our ability to “Middle” & “Scalp” is what really made it all possible and extremely profitable for everyone involved…And when more bettors began doing the same things that we were…the off-shore sports books had to lower their “Bonuses” and change their rules for good…Because everyone was “Earning” with little or no risk at all…Kind of like what today’s topic is about…
So I have no problem telling you to go out and do the same…Because like I said at the top, there is a huge reward for very little risk…And in some instances…NO RISK at all…
What you really need to be able to do this…other than capital, is PATIENCE and NO EGO…Meaning, you need to be extremely patient because many times you can go a few weeks without a successful middle…But then in one weekend, cash 3 of them and make your profit for the month…And you need just as much patience to scalp and sometimes even more because you have to know when the best time to pull the trigger is…and also, many times the profit margin will be very small…But you have to start somewhere if you ever want to get somewhere else…
Because many times, you scalp may be as small as TEAM A -105 and TEAM B +107...Meaning that you make $2 on every $100 that you put into play…So you would need $1000 to make $20...And for some, they may look at it as nickel & dime profit…But nothing could be further from the truth, because even a 1% Return on Investment for a 3hr game without any risk at all is what “Earning” is all about…And you can’t make BIG MONEY when you don’t even know how to make SMALL MONEY…
Believe me, it all begins to add up in time…And before you know it, those $100 “Middles” & “Scalps” turn into DIME$…But the only way for that to happen is to begin putting those $100s into play and putting them out there to “Earn” for you…They do very little just sitting there, except lose value…
And you can’t allow your ego to get in the way of what appears to be a profitable middle…And I will discuss what that means in the next issue…But what this simply means is that you need to leave your opinion for who is going to win or lose out of the equation…Because what you are using to profit with is the price and the inefficiencies of this market…Not the fact that a line is weak or beatable…That is not what “Middles & Scalps” are about…So it requires you to follow certain rules and procedures and leave your opinion at the door…Because the purpose of the wager is to put yourself in a profitable position without needing to handicapp the match-up…You simply need to handicapp the market…
There is no factor more important to building a bankroll than putting your money into play when you are getting the best of it…And there is no denying that when you are able to hit a “middle” or “scalp” a game…that you are getting the very best of it…
I have seen bettors who have made their living and are successful by doing nothing other than “middle” and “scalps”…Meaning, they don’t make bets for any other purpose because they prefer to profit by using this market to make investments that offer the least amount of risk possible…
Now I am not sure if we will need just 1 more or a few more parts to this series to make sure that you fully understand what “Middles” & “Scalps” are…And more importantly, I want to make sure that I pass along many of the ways that I do BOTH each and everyday…to help my bottom line…Because there is no better information, than the kind that you can put into practical use…
And I will definitely be showing you how to do this for yourself…And then it’s up to you whether or not you want to put it to use…and diversify your investments in this market…
Thanks again for all your support…and best of luck, Vegas-Runner…
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 754 AUBURN +2.5
This line should definitely drop…According to a handful of “runners” that I’ve already spoken to…most Outfits have AUBURN on their “Buy-List”…And the only delay is based on hoping someone may adjust up to +3, expecting money on the favorite by the betting public…
But I don’t think that’s going to happen and when the Wiseguys agree, then I see them going out and taking a position at +2.5...And possibly at +2 as well, which would definitely force a much bigger adjustment…Regardless, I don’t believe there will be enough public money the other way to stop the books from being forced to adjust when the “steam” comes…So this line will most likely move in one direction the rest of the way…DOWN…VR
Wed, 03/03/10 - 10:35 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Total
double-dime bet 724 LAC / 723 PHO Under 210.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
** NBA "MORNING MOVES" 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
This Total is definitely INFLATED due to their last meeting, and according to my own Ratings...And that's ok by me, because there is a lot of VALUE on the UNDER...In fact, the Wiseguys have already forced the books to drop this Total a 1/2 Point from 211...And although that don't look like a huge adjustment, it definitely is when the betting public is expected to come in heavy on the Over...So the books dropping the line shows some definite respect for the Outfits that got down on the UNDER...I expect a much lower scoring game from both clubs...And I don't expect them to Both hit nearly 50% of their 3Pt shots like they did the last time they met...We'll go ahead and see if we can stay Perfect in March on Morning Moves...by also taking a 2* Position on the UNDER...VR
