John Chang
of bookie assassin
CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS -4 over Central Florida Knights, 10 dimes
This CBI semifinals matchup involves two teams that depend heavily on homecourt advantage. Fortunately for the Bluejays, this contest is being held in their home arena. UCF has an immaculate record at home this season (16-4,) but they experienced a dropoff whenever they left the Sunshine State (5-7.) While this road dropoff is not surprising for a team of their level, we can't ignore the major struggles they've had when it comes to covering the number. In their last 20 games, the Knights have only covered 5 times. UCF's defense is a Jekyll and Hyde story, ranking 38th in the nation in overall points against, but seeing that number dip significantly when playing on the road (195 ranked road defense.) Simply put, this team gets rattled when they leave home, and I don't believe things are going to change tonight, not at Creighton. The Bluejays have been tough at home, and they've recently discovered how to couple a stronger offensive attack with their usual solid defense. Creighton posted a 17-3 mark at home this season, and finished strong at the Qwest Center by winning four straight and covering in three of those home games. They have the firepower to build up a sizeable lead against UCF, and they are coached by a man who will ride them to defend, defend, and defend some more. Easy choice here. Let's lay the home chalk.
DENVER NUGGETS -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 10 dimes
Here's one game I very much look forward to watching. As we know, the Nuggets have vastly improved after dumping the problem child Carmelo Anthony on the Knicks. They're winning games consistently, and they're covering the number at an alarming rate (14-1 ATS in their last 15 games!) After a couple of SU losses to the Magic and Heat while in Florida, they Nuggets returned home and laid a 33 point beating on Toronto. The boys in Denver are looking to prove themselves against an elite team, and this game against the Spurs is a great opportunity to do just that. San Antonio just lost Tim Duncan to an ankle sprain, and this should open the door for Nene, Martin, Birdman, and Gallinari to work the paint. I'm as big of a Dejuan Blair fan as the next guy, but I don't expect him, McDyess, or Novak to be the antidote for Duncan's absence. Let's take advantage of this small line in this situation.