Wednesday NBA System play-GC
On Wednesday we go for an 8th straight Bonus Play winner. The Play is on the Dallas Mavericks. Game 626 at 8:35 eastern. Normally I dont like playing teams off a loss that followed a long win streak. However The Mavericks have had 3 days to stew in their blowout loss to the Knicks. The loss they suffered is rare in deed. Only 1.3% of NBA games has a home favorite that was a favorite at -10 or more lose the game by 20 or more points. Tonight we will look at a rare system to see how these blowout losers respond. What we want to do is play on a .600 or better home favorite of -3 or more off a home favored loss of 20+ points if they won their previous game by at least 6 points. These Home favorites have responded in a solid way. They are 13-3 ats since 1990. With Chicago likely without D.Rose tonight and playing with no rest. We will back the Mavericks to win and cover tonight. On the Wednesday card I have a 6 unit 33-1 NIT GOY + a solid NCAAB System play as well as an XX-Large Double system NBA play. For the Bonus Play take Dallas. BOL GC --
On Wednesday we go for an 8th straight Bonus Play winner. The Play is on the Dallas Mavericks. Game 626 at 8:35 eastern. Normally I dont like playing teams off a loss that followed a long win streak. However The Mavericks have had 3 days to stew in their blowout loss to the Knicks. The loss they suffered is rare in deed. Only 1.3% of NBA games has a home favorite that was a favorite at -10 or more lose the game by 20 or more points. Tonight we will look at a rare system to see how these blowout losers respond. What we want to do is play on a .600 or better home favorite of -3 or more off a home favored loss of 20+ points if they won their previous game by at least 6 points. These Home favorites have responded in a solid way. They are 13-3 ats since 1990. With Chicago likely without D.Rose tonight and playing with no rest. We will back the Mavericks to win and cover tonight. On the Wednesday card I have a 6 unit 33-1 NIT GOY + a solid NCAAB System play as well as an XX-Large Double system NBA play. For the Bonus Play take Dallas. BOL GC --
Sportsbetcapping
Freddy Wills St. Johns +7 BODOG (3.5 Dime POD)
back when his NBA POD is posted.
Same site Payne Sports anyone got him?? He won again yesterday and is now 34-9-3 in his last 46 NBA plays, one of the best cappers out there. I get his plays for free every now and then otherwise I'd buy it
Freddy Wills St. Johns +7 BODOG (3.5 Dime POD)
back when his NBA POD is posted.
Same site Payne Sports anyone got him?? He won again yesterday and is now 34-9-3 in his last 46 NBA plays, one of the best cappers out there. I get his plays for free every now and then otherwise I'd buy it
VR’s Morning Moves - Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Report Status: MORNING MOVES for WED MARCH 17th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:30pm est on THURSDAY 3-18-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for WEDNESDAY MARCH 17th, 2010
HANDICAPPING : “BEATING the BIG DANCE…THE COACHING FACTOR”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Another “Morning Moves” EZ Winner on Tuesday…Making us “63-29” (68% ATS) on TRUE STEAM since we launched those wagers back in football season…And we’re currently on a “21-9” (70%) TRUE STEAM RUN…
Today, I want to make sure we get right down to it because with the Big Dance beginning tomorrow morning…there are still some key factors and concepts that I want to make sure I pass along…Because I know that so many of you actually handicapp your own games as well, and simply use me as a source of information…Therefore, I want to try and point you in the right direction…by passing along those critical factors and concepts that the Wiseguys consider and use each and every March Madness to beat the books…
And as I’ve written in countless Newsletters in the past…This will help you build a strong foundation, and also help you determine what information or statistics are actually going to help you find some profitable positions…Because during this week, we are being flooded with so much info via tv, radio, print, ect…that many times it can become overwhelming, if not confusing…
The last 2 days we covered some factors and concepts that I believe are some of the most critical for handicappers to consider…And we had the opportunity to go into some detail about many of them, while also trying to increase our level of reasoning…
So today, I want to use this Newsletter to touch on another very important factor that must be considered…And that is COACHING…Because the coach plays a more vital role than ever before since many times, the players will be forced to face teams and environments that they have not been asked to face prior…Success is very dependent on the Coaching Staff at this time of the Season, and it’s a factor that too many cappers don’t put enough emphasis on…Or if they do, they simply try to categorize the coaches into 2 groups…Experienced & Non-Experienced…But as you will see, there is so much more that needs to be considered and your reasoning must go deeper than that if you want to find some profitable positions…
COACHING :
1.) EXPERIENCE…Don’t get me wrong, Experience is huge because this Tournament demands so much more from coaches, that experience becomes key…Because it allows the coaches to prepare the players for what they are going to be facing especially if they are able to continue advancing…And when the coaches or players haven’t been to the Big Dance before, it’s a huge disadvantage…
2.) ABILITY to ADJUST…I like to look at how these coaches were able to prepare their teams when facing a new opponent and new environment (non-conference)…And also how they adjust the 2nd and even 3rd times that they may have faced a Conference opponents during the Regular Season…Finally, I like to see how they had their teams respond when coming out of half-time…BOTH…Ahead or Behind…That shows a lot about the coach and the team…
3.) DICTATE TEMPO…You have to determine the team and coaches ability to dictate tempo…And also see how they did when they played teams who played a different style than they do…Meaning, did they adjust…or where they able to force the opponent to play their style of ball…Because in this Tournament, teams will be facing clubs that they haven’t played against…And they will most definitely be playing teams who prefer to play at a different tempo than they do…Especially if they continue to advance…
4.) BENCH…How does the coach use his bench…Meaning, does he go deep or even have the option of doing so…Or is he very dependent on his starters…Because if a team looks to advance, they will be asked to play plenty of ball in a short time frame…And if the team has just come off a very physically demanding Conference Tournament, then having the option of going deep into your bench is a huge advantage…This will also help you with the point-spread…For example, if a coach is more prone to foul towards the end of a game when behind…then they may not be a club that you want to back in an underdog role…Because many times, a team like that may only be behind 6 points with a minute to go…and a foul-prone coach can easily turn it into a double-digit loss…Always try to take your reasoning to higher and higher levels…
5.) MOTIVATION…It’s key to determine the teams motivation…Because even though it’s obvious that EVERY team is motivated to win during the Big Dance…for many, GETTING IN was their “Season Goal”…While for others, it may be the Sweet 16, Final 4, or Championship…And that motivational factor is usually determined by the coach who most likely has set the teams goal back when the season began…
There are some of the concepts to consider when handicapping the “Coaching Factor”…
The key to finding value in this market usually comes down to the ability of finding a piece of the puzzle that hasn’t been factored into the “line”…And by weighing the coaching factor heavier than many odds makers and handicappers do, as well as reasoning at a high level…will allow you to do that a lot during this Tournament…
It’s a concept that must be considered from Day 1...until the Championship Game…
I’ll share with you how I do this…I simply get a stack of index cards and use one for each coach…And on that card I write down some notes on each of those 5 concepts above…Then throughout the Big Dance, as a team advances, I continue to add more and more to that index card…So that by the time a team gets to the Sweet 16, Elite 8, or Final 4...I have enough information on that teams coach, to help me determine the advantages or disadvantages they may have…And with that analysis, I’m better able to create an accurate price (True Line) to compare to what the books are offering…
And more times than not…since “Public Perception” is weighed so heavily at this time…Value becomes much easier to spot and take advantage of when I have that type of detailed information on the coach…
This was another key concept that I know for sure the Wiseguys weigh heavily and consider throughout the Tournament…And I can remember many times it was actually one of the main reasons that we were actually taking a position…
So make sure that you do put some time and effort into this…And I can promise you from my own experience that it will definitely pay some dividends along the way…More importantly, it will make sure that you aren’t caught off-guard at what a coach may have his club doing at the beginning, middle, or end of a game, because you already know the tendencies…
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck throughout the Big Dance…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 644 WICHITA ST -8.5
This line opened at -8, and the Wiseguys immediately took a position on Wichita St…And from what I’ve been told, they still believe there is some value there that they can take advantage of later…The reason I believe they have sat back is because the Betting Public is expected to come in on the Dog on this one…And that may very well force the adjustment back up, which would then allow them to “steam” Wichita St once again…and still get as good of a price as they did when the line first went up…VR
Wed, 03/17/10 - 7:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 618 CHL 2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 617 OKL
Analysis:
** NBA MORNING MOVES 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
Once again we are looking at the books over-adjusting for an injury to a "key-player"...And because they are assure that the betting public is willing to pay that INFLATED price, they will continue to send the lines out this way...Which I have no problem with because we can then come in and grab that extra value and try to cash another Morning Move...A previous Newsletter was on this exact topic, and we've seen it time and time again, where the rest of the team...especially when playing at HOME...steps up in a big way to fill the void left by the injured player...Let's go ahead and take advantage of this inflated line, and grab the points with Charlotte...Who I believe will be able to get us a nice SU win and improve on their "24-8" (75%) HOME RECORD...VR
Report Status: MORNING MOVES for WED MARCH 17th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:30pm est on THURSDAY 3-18-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for WEDNESDAY MARCH 17th, 2010
HANDICAPPING : “BEATING the BIG DANCE…THE COACHING FACTOR”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Another “Morning Moves” EZ Winner on Tuesday…Making us “63-29” (68% ATS) on TRUE STEAM since we launched those wagers back in football season…And we’re currently on a “21-9” (70%) TRUE STEAM RUN…
Today, I want to make sure we get right down to it because with the Big Dance beginning tomorrow morning…there are still some key factors and concepts that I want to make sure I pass along…Because I know that so many of you actually handicapp your own games as well, and simply use me as a source of information…Therefore, I want to try and point you in the right direction…by passing along those critical factors and concepts that the Wiseguys consider and use each and every March Madness to beat the books…
And as I’ve written in countless Newsletters in the past…This will help you build a strong foundation, and also help you determine what information or statistics are actually going to help you find some profitable positions…Because during this week, we are being flooded with so much info via tv, radio, print, ect…that many times it can become overwhelming, if not confusing…
The last 2 days we covered some factors and concepts that I believe are some of the most critical for handicappers to consider…And we had the opportunity to go into some detail about many of them, while also trying to increase our level of reasoning…
So today, I want to use this Newsletter to touch on another very important factor that must be considered…And that is COACHING…Because the coach plays a more vital role than ever before since many times, the players will be forced to face teams and environments that they have not been asked to face prior…Success is very dependent on the Coaching Staff at this time of the Season, and it’s a factor that too many cappers don’t put enough emphasis on…Or if they do, they simply try to categorize the coaches into 2 groups…Experienced & Non-Experienced…But as you will see, there is so much more that needs to be considered and your reasoning must go deeper than that if you want to find some profitable positions…
COACHING :
1.) EXPERIENCE…Don’t get me wrong, Experience is huge because this Tournament demands so much more from coaches, that experience becomes key…Because it allows the coaches to prepare the players for what they are going to be facing especially if they are able to continue advancing…And when the coaches or players haven’t been to the Big Dance before, it’s a huge disadvantage…
2.) ABILITY to ADJUST…I like to look at how these coaches were able to prepare their teams when facing a new opponent and new environment (non-conference)…And also how they adjust the 2nd and even 3rd times that they may have faced a Conference opponents during the Regular Season…Finally, I like to see how they had their teams respond when coming out of half-time…BOTH…Ahead or Behind…That shows a lot about the coach and the team…
3.) DICTATE TEMPO…You have to determine the team and coaches ability to dictate tempo…And also see how they did when they played teams who played a different style than they do…Meaning, did they adjust…or where they able to force the opponent to play their style of ball…Because in this Tournament, teams will be facing clubs that they haven’t played against…And they will most definitely be playing teams who prefer to play at a different tempo than they do…Especially if they continue to advance…
4.) BENCH…How does the coach use his bench…Meaning, does he go deep or even have the option of doing so…Or is he very dependent on his starters…Because if a team looks to advance, they will be asked to play plenty of ball in a short time frame…And if the team has just come off a very physically demanding Conference Tournament, then having the option of going deep into your bench is a huge advantage…This will also help you with the point-spread…For example, if a coach is more prone to foul towards the end of a game when behind…then they may not be a club that you want to back in an underdog role…Because many times, a team like that may only be behind 6 points with a minute to go…and a foul-prone coach can easily turn it into a double-digit loss…Always try to take your reasoning to higher and higher levels…
5.) MOTIVATION…It’s key to determine the teams motivation…Because even though it’s obvious that EVERY team is motivated to win during the Big Dance…for many, GETTING IN was their “Season Goal”…While for others, it may be the Sweet 16, Final 4, or Championship…And that motivational factor is usually determined by the coach who most likely has set the teams goal back when the season began…
There are some of the concepts to consider when handicapping the “Coaching Factor”…
The key to finding value in this market usually comes down to the ability of finding a piece of the puzzle that hasn’t been factored into the “line”…And by weighing the coaching factor heavier than many odds makers and handicappers do, as well as reasoning at a high level…will allow you to do that a lot during this Tournament…
It’s a concept that must be considered from Day 1...until the Championship Game…
I’ll share with you how I do this…I simply get a stack of index cards and use one for each coach…And on that card I write down some notes on each of those 5 concepts above…Then throughout the Big Dance, as a team advances, I continue to add more and more to that index card…So that by the time a team gets to the Sweet 16, Elite 8, or Final 4...I have enough information on that teams coach, to help me determine the advantages or disadvantages they may have…And with that analysis, I’m better able to create an accurate price (True Line) to compare to what the books are offering…
And more times than not…since “Public Perception” is weighed so heavily at this time…Value becomes much easier to spot and take advantage of when I have that type of detailed information on the coach…
This was another key concept that I know for sure the Wiseguys weigh heavily and consider throughout the Tournament…And I can remember many times it was actually one of the main reasons that we were actually taking a position…
So make sure that you do put some time and effort into this…And I can promise you from my own experience that it will definitely pay some dividends along the way…More importantly, it will make sure that you aren’t caught off-guard at what a coach may have his club doing at the beginning, middle, or end of a game, because you already know the tendencies…
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck throughout the Big Dance…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 644 WICHITA ST -8.5
This line opened at -8, and the Wiseguys immediately took a position on Wichita St…And from what I’ve been told, they still believe there is some value there that they can take advantage of later…The reason I believe they have sat back is because the Betting Public is expected to come in on the Dog on this one…And that may very well force the adjustment back up, which would then allow them to “steam” Wichita St once again…and still get as good of a price as they did when the line first went up…VR
Wed, 03/17/10 - 7:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 618 CHL 2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 617 OKL
Analysis:
** NBA MORNING MOVES 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
Once again we are looking at the books over-adjusting for an injury to a "key-player"...And because they are assure that the betting public is willing to pay that INFLATED price, they will continue to send the lines out this way...Which I have no problem with because we can then come in and grab that extra value and try to cash another Morning Move...A previous Newsletter was on this exact topic, and we've seen it time and time again, where the rest of the team...especially when playing at HOME...steps up in a big way to fill the void left by the injured player...Let's go ahead and take advantage of this inflated line, and grab the points with Charlotte...Who I believe will be able to get us a nice SU win and improve on their "24-8" (75%) HOME RECORD...VR
dunkel
Today's NBA Picks
Milwaukee at LA Clippers
The Bucks look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Milwaukee is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4). Here are all of today's picks.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 611-612: New Jersey at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 114.345; Philadelphia 114.672
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 613-614: Atlanta at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.777; Toronto 112.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 615-616: Indiana at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.346; Cleveland 127.149
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 13; 209
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+13); Under
Game 617-618: Oklahoma City at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 119.887; Charlotte 117.266
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-1 1/2); Over
Game 619-620: New York at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: New York 115.418; Boston 119.078
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: New York (+9 1/2); Over
Game 621-622: San Antonio at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.528; Orlando 127.419
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 7 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+7 1/2); Under
Game 623-624: Memphis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.578; Houston 120.196
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 214
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 625-626: Chicago at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 110.707; Dallas 125.564
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 15; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 627-628: Minnesota at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.830; Utah 124.800
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 14; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 15; 214
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+15); Over
Game 629-630: New Orleans at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.063; Golden State 117.916
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 222
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 229
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-3); Under
Game 631-632: Milwaukee at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 124.520; LA Clippers 111.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 13; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4; 192
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4); Under
Today's NBA Picks
Milwaukee at LA Clippers
The Bucks look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Milwaukee is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4). Here are all of today's picks.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 611-612: New Jersey at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 114.345; Philadelphia 114.672
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 613-614: Atlanta at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.777; Toronto 112.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 615-616: Indiana at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.346; Cleveland 127.149
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 13; 209
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+13); Under
Game 617-618: Oklahoma City at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 119.887; Charlotte 117.266
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-1 1/2); Over
Game 619-620: New York at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: New York 115.418; Boston 119.078
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: New York (+9 1/2); Over
Game 621-622: San Antonio at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.528; Orlando 127.419
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 7 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+7 1/2); Under
Game 623-624: Memphis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.578; Houston 120.196
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 214
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 625-626: Chicago at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 110.707; Dallas 125.564
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 15; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 627-628: Minnesota at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.830; Utah 124.800
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 14; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 15; 214
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+15); Over
Game 629-630: New Orleans at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.063; Golden State 117.916
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 222
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 229
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-3); Under
Game 631-632: Milwaukee at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 124.520; LA Clippers 111.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 13; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4; 192
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4); Under
