Gold Sheet
UT San Antonio 57 - Alabama State 56—SWAC entries such as Alabama
State (E16) often enter the Dance with dubious credentials, and the Hornets are
no exception despite rallying down the stretch to win 11 of their last 12 to secure
the conference’s automatic bid. Note that ASU, which served as cannon fodder
for higher-level foes in pre-SWAC play, notched its only non-conference win
over a Div. I foe against the “mighty” Kennesaw State Owls, although HC Lewis
Jackson was without his full complement of players (including Troy transfer and
top scorer F Tramayne Moorer) for various reasons prior to New Year’s.
While the Hornets’ defensive resolve and pace-conscious ways could
cause surprise Southland Tourney champ UTSA (E16) some discomfort, ASU’s
awful shooting numbers (39.7% FGs, 59.9% FTs) are difficult obstacles to
overcome vs. competent opposition...of which we’re not sure the Roadrunners
qualify, although explosive G Daniel Gibson (17 ppg) and matchup headache
6-8 Aussie F Jerome Hill (13.6) present some intriguing attack options for the
Southland rep. UTSA, with non-league wins over Houston, San Jose State &
Pepperdine, can advance, but not sure we want to lay any points; the “under”
might be a better call with the Hornets’ slow pace and offensive limitations.
Southern Cal 61 - Virginia Commonwealth 60—Each team has much to
prove, being lambasted in many circles for not deserving its spot in the tourney
over rejected teams such as Colorado, Virginia Tech, and SEC West champ
Alabama. It was also curious on Selection Sunday how Southern Cal (SW11)
coach Kevin O’Neill stated he had a “high level of confidence” in his team just
a few weeks after being openly so disappointed in the season that he said his
Trojans had been reduced to fighting for a spot in the NIT. O’Neill (since reinstated
after his suspension for a run-in with an Arizona booster prior to the
Pac-10 Tournament), despite his eccentric and volatile personality, is expert at
designing defenses to flummox opponents’ leading scorers. USC allowed only
41.2% FGs TY and just 33.3% from the arc. And 6-10 Trojan star Nikola
Vucevic (17.3 ppg, 10.2 ppg, 35.4% treys) is one of the more underrated players
in the country. However, VCU (SW11) is a veteran, well-seasoned team (won the
CBI Tourney title LY), with four DD scorers, including its own multi-faceted F in 6-
9, 240 F Jamie Skeen (15.3 ppg, 38% triples). Plus, 7-0 frosh D.J. Haley has been
getting increased playing time in recent VCU games (11 blocks off the bench last
7 contests). Southern Cal (65.3% FTs) is only 3-7-1 its last 10 when favored
COLORADO 78 - Texas Southern 62—Will new Colorado fans Dick Vitale
and Jay Bilas be courtside in Boulder? And will CU be in the proper frame of
mind to channel its anger, after its perceived NCAA snub, against big underdog
Texas Southern? We’re almost sure the answer is “no” to the first
question...and probably “no” to the second as well. Although CU covered 9 of
12 at the Coors Center this season, it never had to overcome an impost nearly
as big as this one against the Houston-based Tigers, who unfortunately aren’t
going to take their showtime marching band to Boulder. Nor will TSU blink at
this road trip after playing 13 of its first 14 on the road (at places such as Wichita,
Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, Arkansas, and others), rarely humiliated in
the process. With a force such as SWAC MVP F Travele Jones (15,9 ppg, but
motivated to atone for his 0 for 6 FG effort in SWAC Tourney vs. Alabama
State), we’d rather take the substantial cushion the oddsmakers are providing
the Tigers
Nebraska 59 - WICHITA STATE 57—Not especially interested in laying
points with Wichita squad that once again had its problems carrying numbers in
the Roundhouse, dropping 8 of 12 spread decision at Koch Arena and being
victimized by another late-season fade, losing 4 of its last 8 SU and dropping 6
of those 8 vs. the number to fall from what appeared to be a likely Big Dance bid.
And, if the pattern continues, the Shockers could lose in this round, as they did
vs. Nevada a year ago. Nebraska isn’t flashy, but Doc Sadler’s bunch can lock
down on the stop end (allowing a Big XII-best 60.2 ppg and only 38.2% from the
floor) and has the kind of size in 6-11 Jorge Brian Diaz and 6-11 moose Andre
Almeida to impede Shocker G Toure’ Murry on his patented commando raids to
the bucket. TV—ESPN2
MIAMI-FLORIDA 70 - Florida Atlantic 64—Here’s a rare chance for nearby
FAU to get a crack at higher-profile local ACC rep Miami, which has no interest
in scheduling the Owls in the regular season. And Sun Belt sources say this rare
chance to get a shot at the Canes has served to rejuvenate Mike Jarvis’ team,
which was a bit bummed after wasting the top seed in the recent conference
tourney. FAU Gs Greg Gantt (13.9 ppg) and Raymond Taylor (11.7 ppg) are not
outmatched by Frank Haith’s erratic backcourt performers, and the Owls have
some bulk in 6-8, 250-lb. Marshall transfer Kore White to bang inside with
Miami’s 6-10, 300-lb. earth mover Reggie Johnson, who doesn’t always get
proper service from his Gs. The low-variance nature of Miami (only 2 DD wins
since New Year’s) makes the Canes an unreliable DD favorite.
NORTHWESTERN 68 - UW-Milwaukee 64—Available points are definitely
interesting with a Milwaukee side that roared down the stretch in the Horizon
League to earn homecourt edge in conference tourney, only to be denied by
Butler (a team the Panthers beat twice in the regular season) at the final step
before UWM could qualify for the program’s first Big Dance since 2006. The
stretch-drive numbers (10-2 SU, 9-3 vs. line) confirm the Panthers’ late uptick,
and punishing 6-7 PF Anthony Hill (15.5 ppg) should be able to do some
business on the blocks vs. the finesse-oriented NU defense, which operates
better when HC Bill Carmody can utilize some of his matchup zone looks to limit
the damage opponents can cause from the perimeter (as it worked almost to
perfection in a pair of close losses vs. Ohio State). But UWM prefers to go
“inside-out” offensively, with Hill as the first option, while G Kaylon Williams’
ability to effectively attack the paint in the past month a half has keyed the late
Panther surge.
VIRGINIA TECH 79 - Bethune-Cookman 53—Similarly cruelly denied an
NCAA berth a year ago (they’re used to that by now in Blacksburg), Seth
Greenberg’s VPI came out and smoked Quinnipiac in the first round of 2010’s
NIT. And, assuming the Hokies are in a similar frame of mind, there’s no reason
they can’t do the same to a Bethune-Cookman side that, despite wining the
MEAC reg.-season crown, was completely outclassed in a handful of preconference
preconference
tests vs. major foes, including a 33-point loss at Arizona, a 24-point
blowout at Big Sky champ Northern Colorado, and a 44-point shellacking at
Baylor. The Wildcats are reportedly very depressed at missing a chance for first
NCAA bid in school history, and Seth can extend this margin as long as BCook’s
star guard C.J. Reed (19.1 ppg, but only a combined 6 of 20 from floor
against Arizona & Baylor) is held somewhat in check. TV—ESPNU
CALIFORNIA 80 - Ole Miss 72—Pac-10 observers are still bullish on Cal
squad that got caught in a familiar Kevin O’Neill defensive vice in its Pac-10
quarterfinal loss vs. SC. But Ole Miss lacks the physical presence to
manhandle the Bears, as did the bigger Trojans. And, since the Rebel defense
is likely to spring holes at any time, opportunities will arise for star Cal frosh G
Allen Crabbe to continue his late-season surge (23 ppg last 4, including, 60%
from floor, and 52% beyond arc). Rebs were never able to develop a consistent
third scoring option beyond Gs Chris Warren (19 ppg) & 6-6 Zach Graham (14.1
ppg) all season. TV—ESPN2
WASHINGTON STATE 76 - Long Beach State 71—Although trips to
Pullman are never convenient, don’t expect it to bother a Long Beach side that
faced plenty of NCAA Tourney foes (mostly away from The Pyramid), such as
San Diego State, Clemson, Saint Peter’s, Washington, Utah State, and North
Carolina this season. Wazzu capable of extending a margin, but too often the
Cougs merely start to rely upon 2-G Klay Thompson’s (22.1 ppg) offensive
prowess at the expense of getting others involved in the offensive flow. Prefer
49er balance (all starters averaging DD scoring), and energizer bunny PG
Casper Ware (17 ppg) is ultra-focused to atone for a rare subpar effort (5 of 17
from the floor) that cost The Beach in Big West title game at the Honda Center
vs. Santa Barbara. TV—ESPNU
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 16
RHODE ISLAND 74 - Miami-Ohio 70—Can’t underestimate wily Miami HC
Charlie Coles, who steered the RedHawks to unlikely contention in the MAC
East and took eventual NCAA rep Akron into OT in the conference tourney. All
of this without valuable swingman Antonio Ballard (12.6 ppg), who went down
in late January with a severe wrist injury. Eventual emergence of frosh PG
Quinten Rollins was also key in the late-season uptick that saw Miami win 7 of
its last 11 SU. Can’t trust URI squad that blew hot-and-cold all season and
couldn’t find a consistent scoring complement to F Delroy James (17.3 ppg).
Also, must note how Miami is trending “over” (10-4 last 14) lately.
St. Bonaventure 66 - UCF 65—It would be hard to name a team that did a
worse about-face at midseason than UCF, which was getting votes in the
weekly polls and was one of the nation’s last unbeatens at 14-0 for new HC
Donnie Jones into early January. But after briefly recovering from an 8-game
losing streak that followed that unbeaten start, the Golden Knights appear to be
wobbling again, losing meekly in their last two outings (including a wretched
showing vs. ECU in the C-USA Tourney), as their spread mark dropped to 3-14-
1 their last 18 on the board. Bona, meanwhile, continued to provide good value
(reflected in 8-3 spread mark its last 11), and A-10 sources report the Bonnies
are thrilled to get another game after believing their season was over in their
crushing A-10 Tourney home loss to La Salle. Bona’s dominating 6-9 F Andrew
Nicholson (20.8) was surging down the stretch, closing the season with six
straight double-doubles
.
MONTANA 72 - Duquesne 66—Not much more than a month ago,
Duquesne was expecting to be spending this week preparing for its first NCAA
appearance since Norm Nixon was still on campus in 1977. But, as punishment
for a late-season fade that has seen the Iron Dukes drop 7 of their last 9 SU and
8 of those 9 vs. the number, they’ve been shipped to remote Missoula to
compete in a second-tier postseason event. The transition game that worked
so well when fueled by steals in January began to wane as frosh G T.J.
McConnell’s numbers started to drop off in February, while high-scoring
swingman Bill Clark (16.3 ppg) hasn’t hit as much as 50% of his shots in any
game since Feb. 2. Without much size, Duquesne could find the Grizzlies’ 6-11
sr. C Brian Qvale (14.9 ppg) a difficult assignment.
OREGON 74 - Weber State 60—The fact Oregon wanted this game despite
its sub-.500 SU mark (16-17) suggests that HC Dana Altman believes he can
still accomplish something with his current Duck contingent that has
unfortunately displayed some schizophrenic tendencies lately. Or maybe it was
just Phil Knight demanding that the season continue in Eugene. Whatever. At
its best, however, Altman’s Oregon has been able to disrupt the opposition (as
the Ducks did to UCLA in last week’s Pac-10 Tourney) with three-quarter court
pressure defense and matchup zones, while hoping that one of the Gs (maybe
Jay-R Strowbrige or Malcolm Armstead) provide a third scoring option behind
PF Joevan Catron (15 ppg) and SF E.J. Singler (11.4 ppg). Weber has a few
interesting weapons, including soph G Scott Barnforth, hitting a nation’s best
52.2% (!) triples, but Big Sky sources have insisted all season that this version
of the Wildcats has been in catch-up mode after replacing 3 starters from LY’s
20-win team.
Tennessee Tech 71 - WESTERN MICHIGAN 69—Once Georgia transfer
Zac Swansey (6.5 apg) settled in at the controls of the Tennessee Tech offense,
the Golden Eagles were tough to beat. TTU has lost only three times in its last
14 games, with two of the setbacks vs. NCAA-tourney bound Morehead State,
and the other at perennial OVC power Murray State. Western Michigan caught
its own updraft down the stretch, winning 10 of its last 13 games. Respect the
well-coached Broncos, but the Eagles are capable of springing an upset if they
can minimize the damage WMU’s rugged jr. F Flenard Whitfield does around
the bucket.
VALPARAISO 80 - Iona 75—No big knocks on tough-minded MAAC rep
Iona, which has lost five games since early January by a grand total of only 16
points. And the Gaels possess a formidable frontcourt force in 6-7 juco transfer
Michael Glover (18.2 ppg on 60% FGs, 10.2 rpg), plus a savvy veteran floor
leader in jr. PG Scott Machado (7.5 apg). Still, at near pick ‘em, compelled to
shade Valparaiso’s substantial edge at their Athletics-Recreation Center,
where the Crusaders have dropped only three games this season (one to
Purdue). MAJOR coaching edge owned by venerable Valpo mentor Homer
Drew (homecourt bears his name) over Iona’s rookie counterpart Tim Cluess.
But our strongest recommendation might be “over” the total points, as neither
side usually takes much time pulling the trigger on offense.
Oral Roberts 72 - SMU 70—Matt Doherty appears to be turning the corner
at long-dormant SMU. And the Mustangs covered 10 of 11 down the stretch
before losing their last two games by a combined total of only four points.
However, can’t recommend laying even a few points to potent Oral Roberts,
which won ten straight games before falling to powerful Oakland in the final of
the Summit League tourney. Sure, SMU’s 6-9 sr. Papa Dia (18.6 ppg, 9.2 rpg,
2.2 bpg) will do damage in the paint. But the visiting Golden Eagles have a few
more viable options on the offensive end, with smooth 6-6 jr. Dominique
Morrison (19.4 ppg), 6-4 soph Warren Niles (14.4 ppg), 6-10 soph Damen Bell-
Holter (13.4 ppg), and 6-7 frosh Steven Roundtree (12.3 ppg) all contributing
double-digit points.
Idaho 65 - SAN FRANCISCO 63—It’s not like the old days on the Hilltop,
when USF postseason appearances were expected; the Dons are making their
first such adventure since Phil Mathews’ team made the Big Dance way back in
1998. Although the USF program is headed in the right direction under thirdyear
HC Rex Walters, Idaho appears to be a bit more refined product than the
young Dons, especially with 6-10 soph C Kyle Barone (10.5 ppg) now providing
a legit post threat and sr. G Jeff Ledbetter loosening opposing defenses with
consistent accuracy (46.1%) beyond the arc. Vandal HC Don Verlin also
employs many of mentor Stew Morrill’s defensive tricks that are designed to
take Gs such as USF’s Michael Williams (15 ppg) and emerging frosh Rashad
Green out of the offensive flow. Idaho’s 10-4 underdog mark suggests taking
any available points at War Memorial Gym.
UT San Antonio 57 - Alabama State 56—SWAC entries such as Alabama
State (E16) often enter the Dance with dubious credentials, and the Hornets are
no exception despite rallying down the stretch to win 11 of their last 12 to secure
the conference’s automatic bid. Note that ASU, which served as cannon fodder
for higher-level foes in pre-SWAC play, notched its only non-conference win
over a Div. I foe against the “mighty” Kennesaw State Owls, although HC Lewis
Jackson was without his full complement of players (including Troy transfer and
top scorer F Tramayne Moorer) for various reasons prior to New Year’s.
While the Hornets’ defensive resolve and pace-conscious ways could
cause surprise Southland Tourney champ UTSA (E16) some discomfort, ASU’s
awful shooting numbers (39.7% FGs, 59.9% FTs) are difficult obstacles to
overcome vs. competent opposition...of which we’re not sure the Roadrunners
qualify, although explosive G Daniel Gibson (17 ppg) and matchup headache
6-8 Aussie F Jerome Hill (13.6) present some intriguing attack options for the
Southland rep. UTSA, with non-league wins over Houston, San Jose State &
Pepperdine, can advance, but not sure we want to lay any points; the “under”
might be a better call with the Hornets’ slow pace and offensive limitations.
Southern Cal 61 - Virginia Commonwealth 60—Each team has much to
prove, being lambasted in many circles for not deserving its spot in the tourney
over rejected teams such as Colorado, Virginia Tech, and SEC West champ
Alabama. It was also curious on Selection Sunday how Southern Cal (SW11)
coach Kevin O’Neill stated he had a “high level of confidence” in his team just
a few weeks after being openly so disappointed in the season that he said his
Trojans had been reduced to fighting for a spot in the NIT. O’Neill (since reinstated
after his suspension for a run-in with an Arizona booster prior to the
Pac-10 Tournament), despite his eccentric and volatile personality, is expert at
designing defenses to flummox opponents’ leading scorers. USC allowed only
41.2% FGs TY and just 33.3% from the arc. And 6-10 Trojan star Nikola
Vucevic (17.3 ppg, 10.2 ppg, 35.4% treys) is one of the more underrated players
in the country. However, VCU (SW11) is a veteran, well-seasoned team (won the
CBI Tourney title LY), with four DD scorers, including its own multi-faceted F in 6-
9, 240 F Jamie Skeen (15.3 ppg, 38% triples). Plus, 7-0 frosh D.J. Haley has been
getting increased playing time in recent VCU games (11 blocks off the bench last
7 contests). Southern Cal (65.3% FTs) is only 3-7-1 its last 10 when favored
COLORADO 78 - Texas Southern 62—Will new Colorado fans Dick Vitale
and Jay Bilas be courtside in Boulder? And will CU be in the proper frame of
mind to channel its anger, after its perceived NCAA snub, against big underdog
Texas Southern? We’re almost sure the answer is “no” to the first
question...and probably “no” to the second as well. Although CU covered 9 of
12 at the Coors Center this season, it never had to overcome an impost nearly
as big as this one against the Houston-based Tigers, who unfortunately aren’t
going to take their showtime marching band to Boulder. Nor will TSU blink at
this road trip after playing 13 of its first 14 on the road (at places such as Wichita,
Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, Arkansas, and others), rarely humiliated in
the process. With a force such as SWAC MVP F Travele Jones (15,9 ppg, but
motivated to atone for his 0 for 6 FG effort in SWAC Tourney vs. Alabama
State), we’d rather take the substantial cushion the oddsmakers are providing
the Tigers
Nebraska 59 - WICHITA STATE 57—Not especially interested in laying
points with Wichita squad that once again had its problems carrying numbers in
the Roundhouse, dropping 8 of 12 spread decision at Koch Arena and being
victimized by another late-season fade, losing 4 of its last 8 SU and dropping 6
of those 8 vs. the number to fall from what appeared to be a likely Big Dance bid.
And, if the pattern continues, the Shockers could lose in this round, as they did
vs. Nevada a year ago. Nebraska isn’t flashy, but Doc Sadler’s bunch can lock
down on the stop end (allowing a Big XII-best 60.2 ppg and only 38.2% from the
floor) and has the kind of size in 6-11 Jorge Brian Diaz and 6-11 moose Andre
Almeida to impede Shocker G Toure’ Murry on his patented commando raids to
the bucket. TV—ESPN2
MIAMI-FLORIDA 70 - Florida Atlantic 64—Here’s a rare chance for nearby
FAU to get a crack at higher-profile local ACC rep Miami, which has no interest
in scheduling the Owls in the regular season. And Sun Belt sources say this rare
chance to get a shot at the Canes has served to rejuvenate Mike Jarvis’ team,
which was a bit bummed after wasting the top seed in the recent conference
tourney. FAU Gs Greg Gantt (13.9 ppg) and Raymond Taylor (11.7 ppg) are not
outmatched by Frank Haith’s erratic backcourt performers, and the Owls have
some bulk in 6-8, 250-lb. Marshall transfer Kore White to bang inside with
Miami’s 6-10, 300-lb. earth mover Reggie Johnson, who doesn’t always get
proper service from his Gs. The low-variance nature of Miami (only 2 DD wins
since New Year’s) makes the Canes an unreliable DD favorite.
NORTHWESTERN 68 - UW-Milwaukee 64—Available points are definitely
interesting with a Milwaukee side that roared down the stretch in the Horizon
League to earn homecourt edge in conference tourney, only to be denied by
Butler (a team the Panthers beat twice in the regular season) at the final step
before UWM could qualify for the program’s first Big Dance since 2006. The
stretch-drive numbers (10-2 SU, 9-3 vs. line) confirm the Panthers’ late uptick,
and punishing 6-7 PF Anthony Hill (15.5 ppg) should be able to do some
business on the blocks vs. the finesse-oriented NU defense, which operates
better when HC Bill Carmody can utilize some of his matchup zone looks to limit
the damage opponents can cause from the perimeter (as it worked almost to
perfection in a pair of close losses vs. Ohio State). But UWM prefers to go
“inside-out” offensively, with Hill as the first option, while G Kaylon Williams’
ability to effectively attack the paint in the past month a half has keyed the late
Panther surge.
VIRGINIA TECH 79 - Bethune-Cookman 53—Similarly cruelly denied an
NCAA berth a year ago (they’re used to that by now in Blacksburg), Seth
Greenberg’s VPI came out and smoked Quinnipiac in the first round of 2010’s
NIT. And, assuming the Hokies are in a similar frame of mind, there’s no reason
they can’t do the same to a Bethune-Cookman side that, despite wining the
MEAC reg.-season crown, was completely outclassed in a handful of preconference
preconference
tests vs. major foes, including a 33-point loss at Arizona, a 24-point
blowout at Big Sky champ Northern Colorado, and a 44-point shellacking at
Baylor. The Wildcats are reportedly very depressed at missing a chance for first
NCAA bid in school history, and Seth can extend this margin as long as BCook’s
star guard C.J. Reed (19.1 ppg, but only a combined 6 of 20 from floor
against Arizona & Baylor) is held somewhat in check. TV—ESPNU
CALIFORNIA 80 - Ole Miss 72—Pac-10 observers are still bullish on Cal
squad that got caught in a familiar Kevin O’Neill defensive vice in its Pac-10
quarterfinal loss vs. SC. But Ole Miss lacks the physical presence to
manhandle the Bears, as did the bigger Trojans. And, since the Rebel defense
is likely to spring holes at any time, opportunities will arise for star Cal frosh G
Allen Crabbe to continue his late-season surge (23 ppg last 4, including, 60%
from floor, and 52% beyond arc). Rebs were never able to develop a consistent
third scoring option beyond Gs Chris Warren (19 ppg) & 6-6 Zach Graham (14.1
ppg) all season. TV—ESPN2
WASHINGTON STATE 76 - Long Beach State 71—Although trips to
Pullman are never convenient, don’t expect it to bother a Long Beach side that
faced plenty of NCAA Tourney foes (mostly away from The Pyramid), such as
San Diego State, Clemson, Saint Peter’s, Washington, Utah State, and North
Carolina this season. Wazzu capable of extending a margin, but too often the
Cougs merely start to rely upon 2-G Klay Thompson’s (22.1 ppg) offensive
prowess at the expense of getting others involved in the offensive flow. Prefer
49er balance (all starters averaging DD scoring), and energizer bunny PG
Casper Ware (17 ppg) is ultra-focused to atone for a rare subpar effort (5 of 17
from the floor) that cost The Beach in Big West title game at the Honda Center
vs. Santa Barbara. TV—ESPNU
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 16
RHODE ISLAND 74 - Miami-Ohio 70—Can’t underestimate wily Miami HC
Charlie Coles, who steered the RedHawks to unlikely contention in the MAC
East and took eventual NCAA rep Akron into OT in the conference tourney. All
of this without valuable swingman Antonio Ballard (12.6 ppg), who went down
in late January with a severe wrist injury. Eventual emergence of frosh PG
Quinten Rollins was also key in the late-season uptick that saw Miami win 7 of
its last 11 SU. Can’t trust URI squad that blew hot-and-cold all season and
couldn’t find a consistent scoring complement to F Delroy James (17.3 ppg).
Also, must note how Miami is trending “over” (10-4 last 14) lately.
St. Bonaventure 66 - UCF 65—It would be hard to name a team that did a
worse about-face at midseason than UCF, which was getting votes in the
weekly polls and was one of the nation’s last unbeatens at 14-0 for new HC
Donnie Jones into early January. But after briefly recovering from an 8-game
losing streak that followed that unbeaten start, the Golden Knights appear to be
wobbling again, losing meekly in their last two outings (including a wretched
showing vs. ECU in the C-USA Tourney), as their spread mark dropped to 3-14-
1 their last 18 on the board. Bona, meanwhile, continued to provide good value
(reflected in 8-3 spread mark its last 11), and A-10 sources report the Bonnies
are thrilled to get another game after believing their season was over in their
crushing A-10 Tourney home loss to La Salle. Bona’s dominating 6-9 F Andrew
Nicholson (20.8) was surging down the stretch, closing the season with six
straight double-doubles
.
MONTANA 72 - Duquesne 66—Not much more than a month ago,
Duquesne was expecting to be spending this week preparing for its first NCAA
appearance since Norm Nixon was still on campus in 1977. But, as punishment
for a late-season fade that has seen the Iron Dukes drop 7 of their last 9 SU and
8 of those 9 vs. the number, they’ve been shipped to remote Missoula to
compete in a second-tier postseason event. The transition game that worked
so well when fueled by steals in January began to wane as frosh G T.J.
McConnell’s numbers started to drop off in February, while high-scoring
swingman Bill Clark (16.3 ppg) hasn’t hit as much as 50% of his shots in any
game since Feb. 2. Without much size, Duquesne could find the Grizzlies’ 6-11
sr. C Brian Qvale (14.9 ppg) a difficult assignment.
OREGON 74 - Weber State 60—The fact Oregon wanted this game despite
its sub-.500 SU mark (16-17) suggests that HC Dana Altman believes he can
still accomplish something with his current Duck contingent that has
unfortunately displayed some schizophrenic tendencies lately. Or maybe it was
just Phil Knight demanding that the season continue in Eugene. Whatever. At
its best, however, Altman’s Oregon has been able to disrupt the opposition (as
the Ducks did to UCLA in last week’s Pac-10 Tourney) with three-quarter court
pressure defense and matchup zones, while hoping that one of the Gs (maybe
Jay-R Strowbrige or Malcolm Armstead) provide a third scoring option behind
PF Joevan Catron (15 ppg) and SF E.J. Singler (11.4 ppg). Weber has a few
interesting weapons, including soph G Scott Barnforth, hitting a nation’s best
52.2% (!) triples, but Big Sky sources have insisted all season that this version
of the Wildcats has been in catch-up mode after replacing 3 starters from LY’s
20-win team.
Tennessee Tech 71 - WESTERN MICHIGAN 69—Once Georgia transfer
Zac Swansey (6.5 apg) settled in at the controls of the Tennessee Tech offense,
the Golden Eagles were tough to beat. TTU has lost only three times in its last
14 games, with two of the setbacks vs. NCAA-tourney bound Morehead State,
and the other at perennial OVC power Murray State. Western Michigan caught
its own updraft down the stretch, winning 10 of its last 13 games. Respect the
well-coached Broncos, but the Eagles are capable of springing an upset if they
can minimize the damage WMU’s rugged jr. F Flenard Whitfield does around
the bucket.
VALPARAISO 80 - Iona 75—No big knocks on tough-minded MAAC rep
Iona, which has lost five games since early January by a grand total of only 16
points. And the Gaels possess a formidable frontcourt force in 6-7 juco transfer
Michael Glover (18.2 ppg on 60% FGs, 10.2 rpg), plus a savvy veteran floor
leader in jr. PG Scott Machado (7.5 apg). Still, at near pick ‘em, compelled to
shade Valparaiso’s substantial edge at their Athletics-Recreation Center,
where the Crusaders have dropped only three games this season (one to
Purdue). MAJOR coaching edge owned by venerable Valpo mentor Homer
Drew (homecourt bears his name) over Iona’s rookie counterpart Tim Cluess.
But our strongest recommendation might be “over” the total points, as neither
side usually takes much time pulling the trigger on offense.
Oral Roberts 72 - SMU 70—Matt Doherty appears to be turning the corner
at long-dormant SMU. And the Mustangs covered 10 of 11 down the stretch
before losing their last two games by a combined total of only four points.
However, can’t recommend laying even a few points to potent Oral Roberts,
which won ten straight games before falling to powerful Oakland in the final of
the Summit League tourney. Sure, SMU’s 6-9 sr. Papa Dia (18.6 ppg, 9.2 rpg,
2.2 bpg) will do damage in the paint. But the visiting Golden Eagles have a few
more viable options on the offensive end, with smooth 6-6 jr. Dominique
Morrison (19.4 ppg), 6-4 soph Warren Niles (14.4 ppg), 6-10 soph Damen Bell-
Holter (13.4 ppg), and 6-7 frosh Steven Roundtree (12.3 ppg) all contributing
double-digit points.
Idaho 65 - SAN FRANCISCO 63—It’s not like the old days on the Hilltop,
when USF postseason appearances were expected; the Dons are making their
first such adventure since Phil Mathews’ team made the Big Dance way back in
1998. Although the USF program is headed in the right direction under thirdyear
HC Rex Walters, Idaho appears to be a bit more refined product than the
young Dons, especially with 6-10 soph C Kyle Barone (10.5 ppg) now providing
a legit post threat and sr. G Jeff Ledbetter loosening opposing defenses with
consistent accuracy (46.1%) beyond the arc. Vandal HC Don Verlin also
employs many of mentor Stew Morrill’s defensive tricks that are designed to
take Gs such as USF’s Michael Williams (15 ppg) and emerging frosh Rashad
Green out of the offensive flow. Idaho’s 10-4 underdog mark suggests taking
any available points at War Memorial Gym.
