NCAAB
Write-Up
Wednesday's play-in games
SWAC teams are 1-16 in NCAAs, with Ark-Pine Bluff winning LY in a play-in game vs Winthrop; Alabama State is 0-4 in NCAAs the last ten years- they won 11 of last 12 games, are team that uses its bench more than anyone in country. Texas-San Antonio won its last five games, with three of last four wins by 5 or less points. Southland teams are 1-8 last eight years in NCAA's; this is their first play-in game since '01. ASU is an aggressive defensive team that allowed 58.3 ppg in SWAC tourney.
USC has long trip east to play VCU squad that is 3-5 in last eight games, but a team that beat UCLA 89-85 on a neutral court last fall. O'Neill has been reinstated as coach after off-court incident; Trojans are 3-3 in this event since '07- they improved a lot when transfer PG Fontan became eligible in December. VCU is 319th in country in defensive rebounding, bad sign vs USC squad that won six of last eight games and has quality size up front. CAA road dogs of 8 or less points are 20-13 vs spread. Pac-10 road favorites of less than 7 points are just 2-7.
Thursday afternoon NCAA games
NC-Asheville lost by 11 at North Carolina, 15 at Georgetown, 49 at Ohio State, so they've played against top-level opponents before. Quick turnaround for Bulldogs, who won in OT late Tuesday in Dayton. West Virginia lost four of last five neutral/road games, but their 8-man rotation all played in Final Four LY- Mountaineers are 11-5 in this event since ’05, winning four of last five 1st round games (wins by 2-18-10-27 points). #12 seeds are 6-2 vs spread in this round last two years; #12 in East is 10-5 vs spread since ’96. Half of WV’s 8-man rotation is seniors.
Old Dominion, Butler both won their last nine games, but only three of ODU’s nine were at home; Monarchs are #1 offensive rebounding team in America, grabbing 45.2% of their own missed shots, but Bulldogs are #11 on defensive boards, so battle of strengths there. Washington site has to give ODU (from Virginia) crowd edge. Underdogs are 20-12 vs spread in 8-9 games the last eight years. ODU beat Horizon League’s Cleveland State by 11 at home last month. Monarchs have three juniors, four seniors in rotation; Butler’s has three seniors in it.
Morehead State lost 74-54 to Louisville in this round two years ago, after losing by 38 to them during season, but these Eagles are better than those Eagles, with senior Faried an NBA-ready rebounder. Morehead is 0-2 vs top 40 teams this season, losing by 6 at Florida, 19 at Ohio State. Cardinals are 11-2 vs teams ranked 95th or lower, with nine of the 11 wins by more than 10 points. #4-seeds are 12-8 vs spread in this round the last five years. Morehead hasn’t played in 11 days; Louisville played late Saturday, its third game in three nights. Interesting to see if Cards can keep Faried off boards.
Penn State-Temple scrimmaged in October, and played last two seasons (Owls won 45-42/65-59), so they’re familiar with each other; Owls are 3-5 vs top 50 teams, have only one senior in their rotation. Penn State allowed only 49 ppg in Big 11 tourney, winning three times before losing in final; they’re 4-12 vs top 50 teams, playing #2 schedule in country- they’ve got four seniors in their rotation. Temple coach Dunphy trying to shake 1-12 career NCAA record, most of which came with Penn of Ivy League. Owls are 12-2 in last 14 games, Lions won four of last five (all road/neutral). Penn State beat pair of A-14 teams, St Joe’s 66-57, Duquesne 77-73.
Until Cornell made Sweet 16 LY, Ivys had lost 11 straight first round games, with eight of the 11 losses by 14+ points; Tigers played Duke, its only game against a top 75 team, and lost 97-60. Ivy League dogs of 10+ points are 9-11 vs spread this season. Kentucky allowed just 59.3 ppg in winning its three SEC tourney games; they've won six games in row, and beat Penn of Ivy League 86-62 Jan 3. UK is 17-1 in first round games since 1988, with 13 of the 17 wins by 15+ points. One thing for Princeton is that they're the #6 defensive rebounding team in America, but their bigs can't shoot 3's like Cinderella Princeton teams of the past.
NC-Asheville won its last seven games, rallying from 10 down to win in OT Tuesday, but #16 seeds are 4-8 vs spread in this round in last three tournaments. Pitt won its last five first round games, by 15-21-19-5-23 points. Big East double digit favorites are 25-23 vs spread in non-league games this season. Panthers are just 3-3 in last six games- their last four wins were all by 10+ points. Pitt is the #2 offensive rebounding team in country. Big South teams, in non-play-in games, have lost by 43-31-14-2-10-19-21-37 points since 2002, with that one win by Winthrop.
#12 seed in Midwest is 13-4 vs spread in 1st round since '94, going 11-6 SU; Richmond won 11 of last 12 games, including last seven in row, but after winning A-14 title Sunday, quick turnaround here. Richmond held last six opponents under 60 points, has four seniors in its rotation with 2,000+-point scorer in Anderson. In two of last three tourneys, Vandy lost in first round as a 4-seed, so they've got demons to exorcize- they lost last five games vs teams ranked in top 55 (Richmond is #46). SEC teams are 7-4 vs spread in non-league games where spread is 2 or less.
Northern Colorado is 0-2 vs top 40 teams this year, losing at Arizona by 23 (on this floor), by 10 at Illinois; Bears split pair with MVC teams in '11, losing to Colorado St by 14, beating Wyoming by 14. Big Sky dogs of 8+ points are 17-10 vs spread this season. San Diego State has never won an NCAA tournament game, so no shot of overconfidence here. Big Sky double digit underdogs are 12-10 vs spread this season. Bears turn ball over 21.8% of time, which could be huge problem vs San Diego St. Big Sky teams are 1-10 in first round since '00, losing games by 5-24-19-7-19-11-28-24-- points, with one Montana upset of Nevada in '06.
Thursday night NCAA games
UCSB upset Long Beach in Big West final, making NCAAs for second year in row; Gauchos lost by 17 to Ohio State LY. UCSB allowed 57.3 ppg in winning its last four games, but before this trip, farthest east they have been was UNLV. Big West teams lost their last five NCAA games, with all five losses by 11+ points. Florida won 10 of last 12 games, with both losses to Kentucky; only two of its last 10 wins are by more than 13 points. #2 seeds are 9-7 vs spread in first round last four years; #2 seed in Southeast is just 2-4 vs spread the last six years. Florida lost in double OT to BYU LY, its first NCAA game since winning title in '07.
Wofford got bad draw, playing in Denver, because they only use bench 21.3% of time (327th in US) and game in altitude favors team that has depth. Terriers are 2nd-most experienced team in country- Charleston is in SoCon and has explosive scorer (Goudelock) like Fredette- Cougars beat Wofford both meetings this year. BYU plays at #23 pace, Wofford plays at #270 pace. Cougars are mush better when Jimmer gets scoring help from teammates, who are limited with Fields out. #3 seeds in SE are 10-2-1 vs spread in first-round game the last thirteen years.
UConn is 2-9 vs spread in its last 11 first-round games, as Calhoun has had his teams ease their way in against overmatched foes. Huskies had historic run thru Big East tourney last week, Thursday game means they should be flat here vs Bucknell team that lost to Villanova by 16, Boston College by 4, Marquette by 14 in games vs top-level foes. Patriot League teams are 2-17 in first round, losing the last four years by 10-15-15-16 points. Big East favorites of 12+ points are 22-20 against spread in its non-conference games. Bucknell makes 40.2% behind arc (7th in US).
Belmont is fashionable upset pick; they force lot of turnovers, they use their bench 4th-most minutes in country, but they're 0-3 vs teams in the top 100, losing by 9-1-9 points to Vandy/Tennessee (twice). Ryan has an 8-1 record in first round, but Wisconsin was brutal in last two games, losing by 28 at Ohio State, 36-33 to Penn State in Big 11 tourney- they have superior PG in Taylor. Badgers don't sub much, they never turn it over, so this is interesting contrast. Atlantic Sun teams are 0-8 in NCAA games, with Belmont's 71-70 loss to Duke the closest of the 8 defeats.#3 seeds are 10-6 against the spread in first round the last four years.
Michigan State/UCLA are proud programs that aren't expected to do lot here; long trip east for Bruin squad that was putrid vs Oregon in Pac-10 tourney, after being bad at the Washington schools the week before, too. UCLA didn't play in NCAAs LY, so they only have three rotation guys who played in tourney in '09. Michigan State is 5-3 in last eight games- they've got terrific senior PG in Lucas and teamful of players who were in Final Four last two years. Spartans beat Washington 76-71 on Maui in November; they played hardest schedule in country. UCLA ranks #305 in country in experience. Lee is playing with torn cartilage in knee.
St John's has nine seniors, but they lost leading rebounder Kennedy in Big East tourney, which hurts a lot; Red Storm ranks #3 in experience, Gonzaga ranks #276, so edge for Johnnies there. Zags beat Marquette by 3, lost to Notre Dame by 4 in games vs Big East foes. St John's lost by 5 at St Mary's in mid-November. Red Storm assistant Dunlap coached for 11 years in Denver, winning two D-II national titles and working with Nuggets for two years. Gonzaga won its last nine games; they'd be well served to play some zone, since St John's doesn't shoot it well (339th in US in % of points on 3's). Zags are 6-2 in last eight first-round games.
Missouri/Cincinnati are both very athletic, but Mizzou plays #13 pace, Bearcats at #289; UC protects ball well (69th in US) and they press too forcing turnovers on 22.7% of possessions. Tigers lost four of last five games, and looked awful in the win (Texas Tech). Neither team played a strong non-league schedule; Mizzou is 2-8 in last 10 road/neutral games; they lost in OT to Georgetown in late November. Missouri won its last five first round games; they've been knocked out of last three tourneys by a Big East team. Bearcats rank #15 in defense; hard for Missouri to set up its press if they're not scoring.
WAC teams are impressive 22-6 vs spread in non-league games where spread is 4 or less points. 30-3 Utah State is team lot of national pundits are touting, but they are 1-2 vs top 50 teams, losing at BYU by 6, by 17 at Georgetown, beating St Mary's by 10 in Moraga. Kansas State wasn't playing like NCAA team in mid-season, but they righted ship and went 6-1 in last seven games, somehow going 0-3 vs Colorado. Aggies rank #7 in experience, K-State 245th. Utah State lost badly to Texas A&M LY in similar role. 12-seeds are 6-6 SU vs 5-seeds in first round last three tournaments. Big 12 teams are 14-10 in games with spread of 4 or less.
Other tournaments
I'm focusing on the NCAA tournament, but since there are games tonight in other events, I'll give you one snippet of info on every game on the card. Don't bet a lot on these games; no one knows who is motivated to play here and who isn't, and that probably includes most of the coaches involved...........good luck. Be cautious.
Texas Southern is 0-4 vs Big 12 teams this season, losing to Oklahoma by 30, Kansas State by 24, Iowa State by 11, Baylor by 8 points.
Nebraska lost four of last five games, Wichita lost three of five; Big 12 road underdogs are 9-12 against the spread this season.
ACC double digit home favorites are 14-17 vs spread in non-league tilts. FAU lost to Florida by 13 points, George Mason by 15.
Milwaukee lost by 21 to Wisconsin; only Big 11 team they played; Big 11 home favorites of 7+ points are 21-15 against the spread.
Bethune-Cookman lost to Arizona by 33, Baylor by 44 in two games vs top 50 teams. Not sure Virginia Tech will feel like playing in NIT again after yet another near-miss with getting into the NCAAs.
Pac-10 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-4 vs spread. SEC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6 vs spread. Cal won four of its last five games. Ole Miss is 4-5 in its last nine.
Pac-10 home favorites of 4+ points are 27-18 vs spread. Big West road dogs of less than 11 points are 15-18 vs spread. Long Beach lost in Big West title when they had won league by four games. 49ers lost by 27 at Washington, by 17 at Arizona State, in two games vs Pac-10 teams.
A-14 home favorites of 10 or less points are 17-13 vs spread. MAC road dogs of less than 13 points are 25-16 vs spread. Miami won by 11 in upset over Xavier, lost to Dayton by 12, in games vs A-14 foes.
Central Florida was 14-0 at one point; they're 19-11 now; C-USA home favorites of less than 10 points are 5-14-1 vs spread. St Bonaventure got beat by 9 by Marshall at home, in its only game vs C-USA opponent.
Big Sky teams are 8-11 vs spread in non-league games where spread was 4 or less points. Duquesne lost seven of its last nine games.
Pac-10 double digit home favorites are 19-14 vs spread in non-league games. Weber State lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 14 or more points.
OVC road dogs of 10 or less points are 10-15 vs spread. MAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 8-13. Western Michigan won eight of its last ten games. Tennessee Tech won seven of its last eight games.
Experienced Iona squad won nine of last 10 games after losing by 5 in MAAC final. Gaels lost by 10 at Cleveland State in November. MAAC teams are 9-6 vs spread in non-league games where spread is 3 or less.
Single digit home favorites from C-USA are 5-14-1 vs spread in its non-league games. Oral Roberts won 10 of last 11 games, beating Rice by a hoop in their only game against a C-USA opponent.
Single digit WAC road underdogs are 10-5 against spread in non-league games. WCC home favorites of less than 6 points are 9-4 vs spread.
Write-Up
Wednesday's play-in games
SWAC teams are 1-16 in NCAAs, with Ark-Pine Bluff winning LY in a play-in game vs Winthrop; Alabama State is 0-4 in NCAAs the last ten years- they won 11 of last 12 games, are team that uses its bench more than anyone in country. Texas-San Antonio won its last five games, with three of last four wins by 5 or less points. Southland teams are 1-8 last eight years in NCAA's; this is their first play-in game since '01. ASU is an aggressive defensive team that allowed 58.3 ppg in SWAC tourney.
USC has long trip east to play VCU squad that is 3-5 in last eight games, but a team that beat UCLA 89-85 on a neutral court last fall. O'Neill has been reinstated as coach after off-court incident; Trojans are 3-3 in this event since '07- they improved a lot when transfer PG Fontan became eligible in December. VCU is 319th in country in defensive rebounding, bad sign vs USC squad that won six of last eight games and has quality size up front. CAA road dogs of 8 or less points are 20-13 vs spread. Pac-10 road favorites of less than 7 points are just 2-7.
Thursday afternoon NCAA games
NC-Asheville lost by 11 at North Carolina, 15 at Georgetown, 49 at Ohio State, so they've played against top-level opponents before. Quick turnaround for Bulldogs, who won in OT late Tuesday in Dayton. West Virginia lost four of last five neutral/road games, but their 8-man rotation all played in Final Four LY- Mountaineers are 11-5 in this event since ’05, winning four of last five 1st round games (wins by 2-18-10-27 points). #12 seeds are 6-2 vs spread in this round last two years; #12 in East is 10-5 vs spread since ’96. Half of WV’s 8-man rotation is seniors.
Old Dominion, Butler both won their last nine games, but only three of ODU’s nine were at home; Monarchs are #1 offensive rebounding team in America, grabbing 45.2% of their own missed shots, but Bulldogs are #11 on defensive boards, so battle of strengths there. Washington site has to give ODU (from Virginia) crowd edge. Underdogs are 20-12 vs spread in 8-9 games the last eight years. ODU beat Horizon League’s Cleveland State by 11 at home last month. Monarchs have three juniors, four seniors in rotation; Butler’s has three seniors in it.
Morehead State lost 74-54 to Louisville in this round two years ago, after losing by 38 to them during season, but these Eagles are better than those Eagles, with senior Faried an NBA-ready rebounder. Morehead is 0-2 vs top 40 teams this season, losing by 6 at Florida, 19 at Ohio State. Cardinals are 11-2 vs teams ranked 95th or lower, with nine of the 11 wins by more than 10 points. #4-seeds are 12-8 vs spread in this round the last five years. Morehead hasn’t played in 11 days; Louisville played late Saturday, its third game in three nights. Interesting to see if Cards can keep Faried off boards.
Penn State-Temple scrimmaged in October, and played last two seasons (Owls won 45-42/65-59), so they’re familiar with each other; Owls are 3-5 vs top 50 teams, have only one senior in their rotation. Penn State allowed only 49 ppg in Big 11 tourney, winning three times before losing in final; they’re 4-12 vs top 50 teams, playing #2 schedule in country- they’ve got four seniors in their rotation. Temple coach Dunphy trying to shake 1-12 career NCAA record, most of which came with Penn of Ivy League. Owls are 12-2 in last 14 games, Lions won four of last five (all road/neutral). Penn State beat pair of A-14 teams, St Joe’s 66-57, Duquesne 77-73.
Until Cornell made Sweet 16 LY, Ivys had lost 11 straight first round games, with eight of the 11 losses by 14+ points; Tigers played Duke, its only game against a top 75 team, and lost 97-60. Ivy League dogs of 10+ points are 9-11 vs spread this season. Kentucky allowed just 59.3 ppg in winning its three SEC tourney games; they've won six games in row, and beat Penn of Ivy League 86-62 Jan 3. UK is 17-1 in first round games since 1988, with 13 of the 17 wins by 15+ points. One thing for Princeton is that they're the #6 defensive rebounding team in America, but their bigs can't shoot 3's like Cinderella Princeton teams of the past.
NC-Asheville won its last seven games, rallying from 10 down to win in OT Tuesday, but #16 seeds are 4-8 vs spread in this round in last three tournaments. Pitt won its last five first round games, by 15-21-19-5-23 points. Big East double digit favorites are 25-23 vs spread in non-league games this season. Panthers are just 3-3 in last six games- their last four wins were all by 10+ points. Pitt is the #2 offensive rebounding team in country. Big South teams, in non-play-in games, have lost by 43-31-14-2-10-19-21-37 points since 2002, with that one win by Winthrop.
#12 seed in Midwest is 13-4 vs spread in 1st round since '94, going 11-6 SU; Richmond won 11 of last 12 games, including last seven in row, but after winning A-14 title Sunday, quick turnaround here. Richmond held last six opponents under 60 points, has four seniors in its rotation with 2,000+-point scorer in Anderson. In two of last three tourneys, Vandy lost in first round as a 4-seed, so they've got demons to exorcize- they lost last five games vs teams ranked in top 55 (Richmond is #46). SEC teams are 7-4 vs spread in non-league games where spread is 2 or less.
Northern Colorado is 0-2 vs top 40 teams this year, losing at Arizona by 23 (on this floor), by 10 at Illinois; Bears split pair with MVC teams in '11, losing to Colorado St by 14, beating Wyoming by 14. Big Sky dogs of 8+ points are 17-10 vs spread this season. San Diego State has never won an NCAA tournament game, so no shot of overconfidence here. Big Sky double digit underdogs are 12-10 vs spread this season. Bears turn ball over 21.8% of time, which could be huge problem vs San Diego St. Big Sky teams are 1-10 in first round since '00, losing games by 5-24-19-7-19-11-28-24-- points, with one Montana upset of Nevada in '06.
Thursday night NCAA games
UCSB upset Long Beach in Big West final, making NCAAs for second year in row; Gauchos lost by 17 to Ohio State LY. UCSB allowed 57.3 ppg in winning its last four games, but before this trip, farthest east they have been was UNLV. Big West teams lost their last five NCAA games, with all five losses by 11+ points. Florida won 10 of last 12 games, with both losses to Kentucky; only two of its last 10 wins are by more than 13 points. #2 seeds are 9-7 vs spread in first round last four years; #2 seed in Southeast is just 2-4 vs spread the last six years. Florida lost in double OT to BYU LY, its first NCAA game since winning title in '07.
Wofford got bad draw, playing in Denver, because they only use bench 21.3% of time (327th in US) and game in altitude favors team that has depth. Terriers are 2nd-most experienced team in country- Charleston is in SoCon and has explosive scorer (Goudelock) like Fredette- Cougars beat Wofford both meetings this year. BYU plays at #23 pace, Wofford plays at #270 pace. Cougars are mush better when Jimmer gets scoring help from teammates, who are limited with Fields out. #3 seeds in SE are 10-2-1 vs spread in first-round game the last thirteen years.
UConn is 2-9 vs spread in its last 11 first-round games, as Calhoun has had his teams ease their way in against overmatched foes. Huskies had historic run thru Big East tourney last week, Thursday game means they should be flat here vs Bucknell team that lost to Villanova by 16, Boston College by 4, Marquette by 14 in games vs top-level foes. Patriot League teams are 2-17 in first round, losing the last four years by 10-15-15-16 points. Big East favorites of 12+ points are 22-20 against spread in its non-conference games. Bucknell makes 40.2% behind arc (7th in US).
Belmont is fashionable upset pick; they force lot of turnovers, they use their bench 4th-most minutes in country, but they're 0-3 vs teams in the top 100, losing by 9-1-9 points to Vandy/Tennessee (twice). Ryan has an 8-1 record in first round, but Wisconsin was brutal in last two games, losing by 28 at Ohio State, 36-33 to Penn State in Big 11 tourney- they have superior PG in Taylor. Badgers don't sub much, they never turn it over, so this is interesting contrast. Atlantic Sun teams are 0-8 in NCAA games, with Belmont's 71-70 loss to Duke the closest of the 8 defeats.#3 seeds are 10-6 against the spread in first round the last four years.
Michigan State/UCLA are proud programs that aren't expected to do lot here; long trip east for Bruin squad that was putrid vs Oregon in Pac-10 tourney, after being bad at the Washington schools the week before, too. UCLA didn't play in NCAAs LY, so they only have three rotation guys who played in tourney in '09. Michigan State is 5-3 in last eight games- they've got terrific senior PG in Lucas and teamful of players who were in Final Four last two years. Spartans beat Washington 76-71 on Maui in November; they played hardest schedule in country. UCLA ranks #305 in country in experience. Lee is playing with torn cartilage in knee.
St John's has nine seniors, but they lost leading rebounder Kennedy in Big East tourney, which hurts a lot; Red Storm ranks #3 in experience, Gonzaga ranks #276, so edge for Johnnies there. Zags beat Marquette by 3, lost to Notre Dame by 4 in games vs Big East foes. St John's lost by 5 at St Mary's in mid-November. Red Storm assistant Dunlap coached for 11 years in Denver, winning two D-II national titles and working with Nuggets for two years. Gonzaga won its last nine games; they'd be well served to play some zone, since St John's doesn't shoot it well (339th in US in % of points on 3's). Zags are 6-2 in last eight first-round games.
Missouri/Cincinnati are both very athletic, but Mizzou plays #13 pace, Bearcats at #289; UC protects ball well (69th in US) and they press too forcing turnovers on 22.7% of possessions. Tigers lost four of last five games, and looked awful in the win (Texas Tech). Neither team played a strong non-league schedule; Mizzou is 2-8 in last 10 road/neutral games; they lost in OT to Georgetown in late November. Missouri won its last five first round games; they've been knocked out of last three tourneys by a Big East team. Bearcats rank #15 in defense; hard for Missouri to set up its press if they're not scoring.
WAC teams are impressive 22-6 vs spread in non-league games where spread is 4 or less points. 30-3 Utah State is team lot of national pundits are touting, but they are 1-2 vs top 50 teams, losing at BYU by 6, by 17 at Georgetown, beating St Mary's by 10 in Moraga. Kansas State wasn't playing like NCAA team in mid-season, but they righted ship and went 6-1 in last seven games, somehow going 0-3 vs Colorado. Aggies rank #7 in experience, K-State 245th. Utah State lost badly to Texas A&M LY in similar role. 12-seeds are 6-6 SU vs 5-seeds in first round last three tournaments. Big 12 teams are 14-10 in games with spread of 4 or less.
Other tournaments
I'm focusing on the NCAA tournament, but since there are games tonight in other events, I'll give you one snippet of info on every game on the card. Don't bet a lot on these games; no one knows who is motivated to play here and who isn't, and that probably includes most of the coaches involved...........good luck. Be cautious.
Texas Southern is 0-4 vs Big 12 teams this season, losing to Oklahoma by 30, Kansas State by 24, Iowa State by 11, Baylor by 8 points.
Nebraska lost four of last five games, Wichita lost three of five; Big 12 road underdogs are 9-12 against the spread this season.
ACC double digit home favorites are 14-17 vs spread in non-league tilts. FAU lost to Florida by 13 points, George Mason by 15.
Milwaukee lost by 21 to Wisconsin; only Big 11 team they played; Big 11 home favorites of 7+ points are 21-15 against the spread.
Bethune-Cookman lost to Arizona by 33, Baylor by 44 in two games vs top 50 teams. Not sure Virginia Tech will feel like playing in NIT again after yet another near-miss with getting into the NCAAs.
Pac-10 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-4 vs spread. SEC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6 vs spread. Cal won four of its last five games. Ole Miss is 4-5 in its last nine.
Pac-10 home favorites of 4+ points are 27-18 vs spread. Big West road dogs of less than 11 points are 15-18 vs spread. Long Beach lost in Big West title when they had won league by four games. 49ers lost by 27 at Washington, by 17 at Arizona State, in two games vs Pac-10 teams.
A-14 home favorites of 10 or less points are 17-13 vs spread. MAC road dogs of less than 13 points are 25-16 vs spread. Miami won by 11 in upset over Xavier, lost to Dayton by 12, in games vs A-14 foes.
Central Florida was 14-0 at one point; they're 19-11 now; C-USA home favorites of less than 10 points are 5-14-1 vs spread. St Bonaventure got beat by 9 by Marshall at home, in its only game vs C-USA opponent.
Big Sky teams are 8-11 vs spread in non-league games where spread was 4 or less points. Duquesne lost seven of its last nine games.
Pac-10 double digit home favorites are 19-14 vs spread in non-league games. Weber State lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 14 or more points.
OVC road dogs of 10 or less points are 10-15 vs spread. MAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 8-13. Western Michigan won eight of its last ten games. Tennessee Tech won seven of its last eight games.
Experienced Iona squad won nine of last 10 games after losing by 5 in MAAC final. Gaels lost by 10 at Cleveland State in November. MAAC teams are 9-6 vs spread in non-league games where spread is 3 or less.
Single digit home favorites from C-USA are 5-14-1 vs spread in its non-league games. Oral Roberts won 10 of last 11 games, beating Rice by a hoop in their only game against a C-USA opponent.
Single digit WAC road underdogs are 10-5 against spread in non-league games. WCC home favorites of less than 6 points are 9-4 vs spread.
NBA
Write-Up
Wednesday, March 16
Hot Teams
-- Denver won six of last seven games, covered nine of last ten. Hawks won their last two games, allowing 82-85 points.
-- Hornets won four of their last six games.
-- Thunder won/covered their last four games. Miami won last three games by 6-33-30 points, covering all three.
-- Rockets won nine of their last eleven games. Charlotte won its last two games, allowing 91 ppg, after losing six in a row before that.
-- Clippers won 10 of their last 13 home games.
Cold Teams
-- Detroit lost five of its last six games. Raptors lost six of eight.
-- Celtics lost three of last four games, covered one of last six. Pacers lost eight of last eleven games, but just won a couple against the Knicks.
-- Bucks lost their last two games, 87-56/110-85. Orlando lost four of its last six games (1-5 vs spread).
-- Phoenix lost its last three games by 19-23-2 points.
-- Minnesota lost five of last six road games (2-4 vs spread). Jazz lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Cavaliers lost last four games, by 15-10-20-20 points (0-4 vs spread). Sacramento lost five of its last six games.
-- Mavericks lost three of their last four games. Golden State is 4-7 as a home underdog this season.
-- 76ers lost three of last four games, with two losses in OT.
Totals
-- Under is 7-3 in Atlanta's last ten games.
-- Over is 10-1 in Detroit's last eleven games.
-- Four of last five Boston games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Phoenix games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2 in Miami's last seven home games.
-- Seven of last eight Charlotte games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Utah games went over the total.
-- Last seven Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Clipper games went over the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Hawks are 5-5 vs spread if they won the night before.
-- Pacers are 2-10 on road if they played night before.
-- Milwaukee is 2-5 vs spread at home if it played night before.
-- Mavericks are 5-2 vs spread when playing second nite in row on road.
Write-Up
Wednesday, March 16
Hot Teams
-- Denver won six of last seven games, covered nine of last ten. Hawks won their last two games, allowing 82-85 points.
-- Hornets won four of their last six games.
-- Thunder won/covered their last four games. Miami won last three games by 6-33-30 points, covering all three.
-- Rockets won nine of their last eleven games. Charlotte won its last two games, allowing 91 ppg, after losing six in a row before that.
-- Clippers won 10 of their last 13 home games.
Cold Teams
-- Detroit lost five of its last six games. Raptors lost six of eight.
-- Celtics lost three of last four games, covered one of last six. Pacers lost eight of last eleven games, but just won a couple against the Knicks.
-- Bucks lost their last two games, 87-56/110-85. Orlando lost four of its last six games (1-5 vs spread).
-- Phoenix lost its last three games by 19-23-2 points.
-- Minnesota lost five of last six road games (2-4 vs spread). Jazz lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Cavaliers lost last four games, by 15-10-20-20 points (0-4 vs spread). Sacramento lost five of its last six games.
-- Mavericks lost three of their last four games. Golden State is 4-7 as a home underdog this season.
-- 76ers lost three of last four games, with two losses in OT.
Totals
-- Under is 7-3 in Atlanta's last ten games.
-- Over is 10-1 in Detroit's last eleven games.
-- Four of last five Boston games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Phoenix games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2 in Miami's last seven home games.
-- Seven of last eight Charlotte games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Utah games went over the total.
-- Last seven Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Clipper games went over the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Hawks are 5-5 vs spread if they won the night before.
-- Pacers are 2-10 on road if they played night before.
-- Milwaukee is 2-5 vs spread at home if it played night before.
-- Mavericks are 5-2 vs spread when playing second nite in row on road.
NHL
Write-Up
Wednesday, March 16
Hot Teams
-- Washington won its last nine games, allowing 14 goals.
-- Ducks won five of their last seven games. St Louis won three of four.
-- Vancouver won its last six games, allowing 13 goals.
Cold Teams
-- Hurricanes lost four of last five games, scoring eight goals. Toronto also lost four of its last five games.
-- Detroit lost three of its last four home games.
-- Colorado lost last eight games, allowing 20 goals in last four.
Totals
-- Six of last seven Carolina games stayed under total.
-- Last three Detroit home games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Anaheim games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Colorado games went over the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Carolina is 1-6 at home if it played night before.
-- Washington is 3-5 on road if it played the night before.
Series records
-- Maple Leafs lost 10 of last 12 games against Carolina.
-- Home team won both Washington-Detroit games LY, with both games ending 3-2.
-- Ducks lost three of last four vs St Louis, losing last meeting 9-3.
-- Canucks won eight of last ten games against Colorado.
Write-Up
Wednesday, March 16
Hot Teams
-- Washington won its last nine games, allowing 14 goals.
-- Ducks won five of their last seven games. St Louis won three of four.
-- Vancouver won its last six games, allowing 13 goals.
Cold Teams
-- Hurricanes lost four of last five games, scoring eight goals. Toronto also lost four of its last five games.
-- Detroit lost three of its last four home games.
-- Colorado lost last eight games, allowing 20 goals in last four.
Totals
-- Six of last seven Carolina games stayed under total.
-- Last three Detroit home games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Anaheim games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Colorado games went over the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Carolina is 1-6 at home if it played night before.
-- Washington is 3-5 on road if it played the night before.
Series records
-- Maple Leafs lost 10 of last 12 games against Carolina.
-- Home team won both Washington-Detroit games LY, with both games ending 3-2.
-- Ducks lost three of last four vs St Louis, losing last meeting 9-3.
-- Canucks won eight of last ten games against Colorado.
Mighty Quinn
Mighty missed with Cleveland State (-11) Tuesday night.
Wednesday it's Rhode Island. The deficit is 580 sirignanos.
Mighty missed with Cleveland State (-11) Tuesday night.
Wednesday it's Rhode Island. The deficit is 580 sirignanos.
Don Wallace
NBA
ROTATION - 602# - 4UNIT* - ATLANTA -1 (7:05 EST) - BETUS.COM
ROTATION - 612# - 4UNIT* - MIAMI -6.5 (8:05 EST) - BODOG.COM
ROTATION - 613# - 4UNIT* - HOUSTON -6 (8:35 EST) - SPORTSBETTING.COM
ROTATION - 618# - 4UNIT* - SACRAMENTO -8 (10:05 EST) - BETED.COM
ROTATION - 621# - 4UNIT* - PHILADELPHIA +1 (10:35 EST) - BETED.COM
NBA
ROTATION - 602# - 4UNIT* - ATLANTA -1 (7:05 EST) - BETUS.COM
ROTATION - 612# - 4UNIT* - MIAMI -6.5 (8:05 EST) - BODOG.COM
ROTATION - 613# - 4UNIT* - HOUSTON -6 (8:35 EST) - SPORTSBETTING.COM
ROTATION - 618# - 4UNIT* - SACRAMENTO -8 (10:05 EST) - BETED.COM
ROTATION - 621# - 4UNIT* - PHILADELPHIA +1 (10:35 EST) - BETED.COM
Richie Carrera
of bookie assassin
15 Dimes Duquesne +1 over Montana
Neither team enters play very hot, but over the course of the season Duquesne has amassed more quality wins over better opponents. You throw Montana in the A-10 and it's doubtful they end up with 15 wins, let alone 20. We are looking for Duquesne to get back on track and surge through the tournament, starting tonight. Let's watch them begin to turn their recently awful ATS numbers around at the expense of Montana.
of bookie assassin
15 Dimes Duquesne +1 over Montana
Neither team enters play very hot, but over the course of the season Duquesne has amassed more quality wins over better opponents. You throw Montana in the A-10 and it's doubtful they end up with 15 wins, let alone 20. We are looking for Duquesne to get back on track and surge through the tournament, starting tonight. Let's watch them begin to turn their recently awful ATS numbers around at the expense of Montana.
John Chang
of bookie assassin
20 dimes Denver Nuggets +1 over ATLANTA HAWKS,
Like I said a few days ago, this Denver squad is not a team that anyone wants to face right now, whether home or away. This number one ranked offense continues to roll opponents, as they have managed to put up at least 100 points in 8 out of their last 9 contests. The Nuggets are averaging a sick 107.8 ppg, and because of the newly found focus on defense and rebounding, they have won 6 out of 7 games and 4 out of their last 5 road games ATS. The one-two punch of Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton running the point has left opponents scrambling to keep up with the two speedy scoring guards, and despite Atlanta's solid defense, they are no match to keep these guards from running the court. The Hawks haven't been on any sort of tear lately, as they have dropped 4 of 6 overall. I love this line for this situation, and we need to take advantage of this major value. Roll with the road dog!
of bookie assassin
20 dimes Denver Nuggets +1 over ATLANTA HAWKS,
Like I said a few days ago, this Denver squad is not a team that anyone wants to face right now, whether home or away. This number one ranked offense continues to roll opponents, as they have managed to put up at least 100 points in 8 out of their last 9 contests. The Nuggets are averaging a sick 107.8 ppg, and because of the newly found focus on defense and rebounding, they have won 6 out of 7 games and 4 out of their last 5 road games ATS. The one-two punch of Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton running the point has left opponents scrambling to keep up with the two speedy scoring guards, and despite Atlanta's solid defense, they are no match to keep these guards from running the court. The Hawks haven't been on any sort of tear lately, as they have dropped 4 of 6 overall. I love this line for this situation, and we need to take advantage of this major value. Roll with the road dog!
