Dave Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #624 NOTRE DAME over SETON HALL
Notre Dame was outstanding down the stretch by playing with tremendous chemistry and basketball savvy, and executing it all at a very slow tempo. Seton Hall is simply allergic to that, and vulnerable to having a major bout of coughing and sneezing off of the way that things got away last night. That sets this up well for us to raise the ante in a classic case of the style contrasts creating an easy win.
Mike Brey’s Fighting Irish beat the spread by a combined 65 points in that 5-0 ATS surge to close the season, with the only loss coming at Louisville in O.T., and quality wins over Pittsburgh and Connecticut at home and Georgetown and Marquette on the road. It shows how far off the markets are in terms of making the proper adjustments, and while Luke Harangody is back now, we do not believe that the chemistry will be disrupted – they know how their pieces best fit now, and if anything the confidence of having a healthy Harangody lets them know that the depth is there to make a serious run in this tourney.
Here is the key to this particular matchup. Notre Dame won while playing slow against some tough Big East teams that also like to play that way (Pittsburgh – Georgetown – Marquette). We can not over-state that. Now a methodical tempo is kryptonite with a small “k” for a Seton Hall squad that lacks superman abilities (with a small “s”). The Pirates can have their moments when getting out into the open court, but their lack of fundamentals and patience can make them a disaster when things slow down. They were an awful 2-11 ATS in regulation this season when neither they nor their opponents scored more than 80 points, and there could not be a worse preparation for facing the current Notre Dame style than those back-to-back track meets over Providence, wins by 92-80 and 109-106. Games like those allow a lot of bad habits to get fertilized, and that was absolutely the case in the latter stages on Tuesday night, when an all-out meltdown enabled Providence to come within a late missed triple of entirely erasing a 26-point deficit. The Friars scored 67 points in the second half, and if the gap in three point shooting was not so wide (they hit 25.0 percent; Seton Hall 50.0) the game might indeed have been theirs.
Bobby Gonzalez now has to find a way to shift his team into a lower gear in a heartbeat, and that is neither his specialty, nor that of his players. Over the course of 40 minutes they make the kind of bad plays that can be fully exploited by the much more fundamentally-sound squad, and a game that the oddsmakers have priced as a close one steadily breaks open.