Dr. Bob
*Boston College (+24) over VIRGINIA
04:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 527
Virginia’s slow pace makes it tough for the Cavaliers to cover big numbers because there are fewer possessions to extend the lead. The Cavaliers also traditionally have a larger than normal drop off between their regular rotation and their bench players, who get more time in blowout games. Virginia is 55.4% in all games in 7 seasons under coach Tony Bennett but the Cavaliers are just 10-17 ATS as a favorite of more than 14 points, including 2-8 ATS against a team with a losing record. Boston College is obviously struggling and they’re without #2 scorer Jerome Robinson (worth about 1 point), but the line is fair (my ratings favor Virginia by 23 ½ points with Robinson out) and the Eagles apply to a 92-25-2 ATS situation and an 81-34-5 ATS situation that plays on big dogs that have lost 7 or more consecutive games. Virginia, meanwhile, applies to a negative 45-115-2 ATS situation that plays against big favorites off an upset win and I can certainly see the Cavaliers being a bit flat for this game after winning at Louisville and with a game at Pitt coming up. I’ll take Boston College in a 1-Star Best Bet at +23 points or more.
Note: This game was released to my subscribers early this morning when the line was +24. BC is still a Best Bet at +23 or more.
Opinion – Nebraska-Omaha (-4) over WESTERN ILLINOIS
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 571
Western Illinois started the season 5-0, including an opening game upset win at Wisconsin. However it’s been all down since, and the Leathernecks are currently riding an 11 game losing streak heading into this game and are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. Nebraska Omaha, meanwhile, is 9-2 in their last 11 games and the Mavericks are 11-2 ATS in games played away from home this season, including 7-0 ATS as a favorite or pick. My ratings using all games this season favor Omaha by 4 points but Western Illinois isn’t nearly as good as they were those first few games when they couldn’t miss from outside (50.5% 3-point shooting in 6 November games but just 33.4% in 13 games since). My current ratings favor Omaha by 6 ½ points and I’ll lean with the Mavericks at -4 or less based on the line value.
Opinion - Miami (+4) over DALLAS
05:30 PM Pacific, Rotation: 513
Miami is a much better team off a loss (37-27-2 ATS since the beginning of last season) than they are off a win (20-42-1 ATS) and I expect a good effort from the Heat after last night’s loss in Houston. I also think the Heat are underrated now that Goran Dragic is back and my ratings favor Dallas by just 2 points in this game even after factoring in the rest advantage. I don’t have quite enough value to make this a Best Bet but I’ll lean with Miami plus the points.
*Boston College (+24) over VIRGINIA
04:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 527
Virginia’s slow pace makes it tough for the Cavaliers to cover big numbers because there are fewer possessions to extend the lead. The Cavaliers also traditionally have a larger than normal drop off between their regular rotation and their bench players, who get more time in blowout games. Virginia is 55.4% in all games in 7 seasons under coach Tony Bennett but the Cavaliers are just 10-17 ATS as a favorite of more than 14 points, including 2-8 ATS against a team with a losing record. Boston College is obviously struggling and they’re without #2 scorer Jerome Robinson (worth about 1 point), but the line is fair (my ratings favor Virginia by 23 ½ points with Robinson out) and the Eagles apply to a 92-25-2 ATS situation and an 81-34-5 ATS situation that plays on big dogs that have lost 7 or more consecutive games. Virginia, meanwhile, applies to a negative 45-115-2 ATS situation that plays against big favorites off an upset win and I can certainly see the Cavaliers being a bit flat for this game after winning at Louisville and with a game at Pitt coming up. I’ll take Boston College in a 1-Star Best Bet at +23 points or more.
Note: This game was released to my subscribers early this morning when the line was +24. BC is still a Best Bet at +23 or more.
Opinion – Nebraska-Omaha (-4) over WESTERN ILLINOIS
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 571
Western Illinois started the season 5-0, including an opening game upset win at Wisconsin. However it’s been all down since, and the Leathernecks are currently riding an 11 game losing streak heading into this game and are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. Nebraska Omaha, meanwhile, is 9-2 in their last 11 games and the Mavericks are 11-2 ATS in games played away from home this season, including 7-0 ATS as a favorite or pick. My ratings using all games this season favor Omaha by 4 points but Western Illinois isn’t nearly as good as they were those first few games when they couldn’t miss from outside (50.5% 3-point shooting in 6 November games but just 33.4% in 13 games since). My current ratings favor Omaha by 6 ½ points and I’ll lean with the Mavericks at -4 or less based on the line value.
Opinion - Miami (+4) over DALLAS
05:30 PM Pacific, Rotation: 513
Miami is a much better team off a loss (37-27-2 ATS since the beginning of last season) than they are off a win (20-42-1 ATS) and I expect a good effort from the Heat after last night’s loss in Houston. I also think the Heat are underrated now that Goran Dragic is back and my ratings favor Dallas by just 2 points in this game even after factoring in the rest advantage. I don’t have quite enough value to make this a Best Bet but I’ll lean with Miami plus the points.
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