David Banks
CFB - Western Kentucky
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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
After a day off on Christmas Day, the 2012-13 Bowl Season continues on Wednesday as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 8-4 ATS) take on the Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6, 5-7 ATS) in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl from Ford Field in Detroit at 7:30 ET on ESPN. This will be the first bowl game ever for Western Kentucky, which has been a member of the Sun Belt Conference since making the jump up to the FBS level in 2007. Western Michigan ended the year with three straight wins after a 3-6 start, but it was very fortunate to end the season with a 1-11 Massachusetts team playing in its first FBS season. Thus the Chippewas sneaked into this bowl game, where the much better Western Kentucky defense should make all the difference.
That is because the offensive numbers of these teams are practically identical. The Hilltoppers averaged 28.8 points and 391.8 yards per game this season, although they did boast the leader in all-purpose yards in the entire nation in running back Antonio Andrews. While playing in the obscurity of the Sun Belt, Andrews quietly finished with 2,977 yards in rushing, receiving and return yards combined, which was the third highest single season all-purpose total in FBS history! The all time record is held by the great Barry Sanders with 3,250 yards. Andrews aside though, the real reason Western Kentucky is here is its defense, as the Hilltoppers ranked 23rd in the nation in total defense allowing just 344.4 yards per game while yielding only 3.9 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Furthermore, the Hilltoppers led the Sun Belt Conference in both sacks (31) and tackles for loss (90). Granted they did that vs. an overall schedule that ranked just 104th in SOS on the Sagarin Rating, but Central Michigan faced an even easier schedule with an SOS of 124th overall.
The Chippewas averaged 29.3 points and 393.3 total yards offensively, although they were more of a passing team than Western Kentucky, averaging 242.3 passing yards compared to 151.1 rushing yards. With that said, it was not always known where quarterback Ryan Radcliff's passes were going as he finished with an ordinary 59.0 percent completion percentage. Central Michigan did average a nice 4.8 yards per carry on the occasions when they did run the ball though. The biggest problem for the Chippewas in this contest however is their defense. That unit ranked just 93rd in the country in total defense while surrendering a whopping 441.2 yards per game and a bad 7.4 yards per pass attempt and a flat out terrible 4.9 yards per rush. An all-purpose talent like Andrews is probably the last thing this team wants to face. On top of that, CMU yielded a disgusting 86.8 percent success rate to opponents in the red zone and the Chips had the fewest tackles for loss in the MAC with 47.
Western Kentucky has been like an ATM for several years now going 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games overall with precious little fanfare. Central Michigan meanwhile is on the opposite end of the spectrum, going just 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games overall.
Pick W. KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS-6