Safestwagering
Utah Utes #20 (10-2)
vs. Boise St. Broncos #10 (11-1)
It looks like the line is only -16.5 because Boise St. coach
Chris Petersen doesn't intentionally run-up scores.
The odds makers are assuming that the starters may get
a rest towards the end of the game to allow all seniors one
last chance for action.
I don't think it matters.
Boise St. looked like one of the top 3 teams in the country
until they played Nevada. They were dominating 24-7, and
started to relax. The defense was on the field too long and tired.
Then the kicker missed 2 winning field goals and now finds
his name synonymous with Bill Buckner's.
For anyone who's played the game, once momentum takes
a major turn, it's almost impossible to get it back in a
short period of time.
Look what happened to The New York Giants last Sunday.
I don't expect The Broncos to let down at all this evening.
They still want to make a statement. Historically the
best pipeline for NFL talent has been the Miami Hurricane teams
from 2000-2002.
But... many Boise players in tonight's game will be
competing on Sundays in the next two years.
Utah only beat Air Force by 5 points, who ironically have the
worst air attack in the country.
They got crushed by TCU 47-7.
Then they went to Notre Dame completely deflated & lost 28-3.
They need heart and better DNA.
Take Boise State -9.5 for the First Half.
If not available, Take Boise State -16.5 for the whole game.
Utah Utes #20 (10-2)
vs. Boise St. Broncos #10 (11-1)
It looks like the line is only -16.5 because Boise St. coach
Chris Petersen doesn't intentionally run-up scores.
The odds makers are assuming that the starters may get
a rest towards the end of the game to allow all seniors one
last chance for action.
I don't think it matters.
Boise St. looked like one of the top 3 teams in the country
until they played Nevada. They were dominating 24-7, and
started to relax. The defense was on the field too long and tired.
Then the kicker missed 2 winning field goals and now finds
his name synonymous with Bill Buckner's.
For anyone who's played the game, once momentum takes
a major turn, it's almost impossible to get it back in a
short period of time.
Look what happened to The New York Giants last Sunday.
I don't expect The Broncos to let down at all this evening.
They still want to make a statement. Historically the
best pipeline for NFL talent has been the Miami Hurricane teams
from 2000-2002.
But... many Boise players in tonight's game will be
competing on Sundays in the next two years.
Utah only beat Air Force by 5 points, who ironically have the
worst air attack in the country.
They got crushed by TCU 47-7.
Then they went to Notre Dame completely deflated & lost 28-3.
They need heart and better DNA.
Take Boise State -9.5 for the First Half.
If not available, Take Boise State -16.5 for the whole game.
THEOWAD (The One Winner a day)
BOISE ST BRONCOS
BEST BETS
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
NEW YORK KNICKS
UTAH (19) VS BOISE ST (10) 8PM EST
Tonight we are all set to kick off the "Real" Bowl games as our first Bowl with Ranked teams who both had greater aspirations during the season but fell short are set to do battle. Boise opened as a big chalk favorite laying 17 points and it has remained there all week. Late action suggests $ is pouring heavy in on Utah as the line has been bet down to 15.5 at some books. The total is set at 60 for tonights game. There is no doubt about which team has the better player at every position (Well except maybe Kicker) as the Broncos were just a FG away from going to the Rose Bowl.
Heisman finalist QB Kellen Moore leads the #2 offense in the country (46.7 PPG). Moore threw for 3,506 yards and had a 33-5 TD-INT ratio with a 71% completion rate. His 185.0 passer rating was second in the nation to Auburn's Cam Newton. He faces a Utes defense that allowed 215.5 YPG through the air and only 105 per game overland.
As far as the pointspread is concerned, this will be the 12th consecutive game that Boise State is favored by at least two touchdowns. So far, they have gone 7-4 ATS with three of the non-covers coming in SU victories of 13, 29 and 36 points. The other was obviously the Nevada game. For over a decade now, BSU has been a pointspread juggernaut, going 96-53 ATS since moving up to FBS play, including 25-10 ATS L35. They are 10-3 ATS L13 against non-conference opponents. They are 7-3 ATS in bowl games, including a 2-0 ATS run vs. TCU the last two years, including an outright win in the Fiesta Bowl LY as seven-point dogs.
It is interesting to note that Boise is 0-3 SU its last three non-BCS bowl games, losing to TCU in '08 (Poinsettia), East Carolina in '07 (Hawaii) and Boston College in '05 (MPC Computers).
A lot of people are questioning whether or not Boise wants to be in this bowl and WILL THE BRONCOS BE MOTIVATED?
Utah comes in Ranked 17th in the Nation and has an impressive 9 Bowl winning streak on the line.
Utah was also once unbeaten and ranked in the top ten as the won their first eight games to climb as high as #8 in the polls. Then came back to back losses to TCU and Notre Dame, which very nearly dropped them out of the top 25 entirely. The loss to TCU was a bad one - 47-7 at home - as was the loss to the Irish as the Utes were favored by 5.5 in a 28-3 road loss. HC Kyle Whittingham's team did close the season with a pair of close victories over San Diego State and BYU - by a combined five points.
After starting the season 6-0-1 ATS, the Utes failed to cover in four of the final five regular season games. They own the nation's longest bowl win streak at nine games, one of which came two years ago against Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl as lofty 9.5-point dogs. Last year, they pulled off another outright dog win, this time beating California in the Poinsettia Bowl, 37-27, as three-point pups. Three of the last five years we've seen Utah win its bowl game outright as a dog.
The Utes will not have their starting QB Jordan Wynn for this game. That should be okay as backup Terrance Cain has gone 9-1 SU as a starter in his career with a 163.9 passer rating. However, Cain could be in for a long day against a Broncos defense that is tops in the nation in sacks per game (3.8) and second in tackles for a loss (8.3 per game). The Boise St defense also ranks fourth nationally in both points (13.6) and yards (259.3) allowed per game while ranking third against the pass (155.8 yds per game).
And on some personal notes - ITS POURING RAIN in Las Vegas right now. Flash Flood warnings - the whole works. Its like Seattle outside right now as I look out my window on the top floor of the MGM Grand Signature Suites.
The players got into a major scuffle the other night at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino. A shoving match, thrown drinks, the bartenders had to douse a few players who were jawwing eachother. Not smart for Utah to get Boise fired up like that. One Utah player is referring to Boise St as Girlsie State on his Twitter account. They may have awoke a sleeping Giant. We believe that Boise will take out their frustrations on this Utah team. Look for a dominant Defensive effort and stellar offensive performance from Boise St.
BOISE ST BRONCOS
BEST BETS
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
NEW YORK KNICKS
UTAH (19) VS BOISE ST (10) 8PM EST
Tonight we are all set to kick off the "Real" Bowl games as our first Bowl with Ranked teams who both had greater aspirations during the season but fell short are set to do battle. Boise opened as a big chalk favorite laying 17 points and it has remained there all week. Late action suggests $ is pouring heavy in on Utah as the line has been bet down to 15.5 at some books. The total is set at 60 for tonights game. There is no doubt about which team has the better player at every position (Well except maybe Kicker) as the Broncos were just a FG away from going to the Rose Bowl.
Heisman finalist QB Kellen Moore leads the #2 offense in the country (46.7 PPG). Moore threw for 3,506 yards and had a 33-5 TD-INT ratio with a 71% completion rate. His 185.0 passer rating was second in the nation to Auburn's Cam Newton. He faces a Utes defense that allowed 215.5 YPG through the air and only 105 per game overland.
As far as the pointspread is concerned, this will be the 12th consecutive game that Boise State is favored by at least two touchdowns. So far, they have gone 7-4 ATS with three of the non-covers coming in SU victories of 13, 29 and 36 points. The other was obviously the Nevada game. For over a decade now, BSU has been a pointspread juggernaut, going 96-53 ATS since moving up to FBS play, including 25-10 ATS L35. They are 10-3 ATS L13 against non-conference opponents. They are 7-3 ATS in bowl games, including a 2-0 ATS run vs. TCU the last two years, including an outright win in the Fiesta Bowl LY as seven-point dogs.
It is interesting to note that Boise is 0-3 SU its last three non-BCS bowl games, losing to TCU in '08 (Poinsettia), East Carolina in '07 (Hawaii) and Boston College in '05 (MPC Computers).
A lot of people are questioning whether or not Boise wants to be in this bowl and WILL THE BRONCOS BE MOTIVATED?
Utah comes in Ranked 17th in the Nation and has an impressive 9 Bowl winning streak on the line.
Utah was also once unbeaten and ranked in the top ten as the won their first eight games to climb as high as #8 in the polls. Then came back to back losses to TCU and Notre Dame, which very nearly dropped them out of the top 25 entirely. The loss to TCU was a bad one - 47-7 at home - as was the loss to the Irish as the Utes were favored by 5.5 in a 28-3 road loss. HC Kyle Whittingham's team did close the season with a pair of close victories over San Diego State and BYU - by a combined five points.
After starting the season 6-0-1 ATS, the Utes failed to cover in four of the final five regular season games. They own the nation's longest bowl win streak at nine games, one of which came two years ago against Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl as lofty 9.5-point dogs. Last year, they pulled off another outright dog win, this time beating California in the Poinsettia Bowl, 37-27, as three-point pups. Three of the last five years we've seen Utah win its bowl game outright as a dog.
The Utes will not have their starting QB Jordan Wynn for this game. That should be okay as backup Terrance Cain has gone 9-1 SU as a starter in his career with a 163.9 passer rating. However, Cain could be in for a long day against a Broncos defense that is tops in the nation in sacks per game (3.8) and second in tackles for a loss (8.3 per game). The Boise St defense also ranks fourth nationally in both points (13.6) and yards (259.3) allowed per game while ranking third against the pass (155.8 yds per game).
And on some personal notes - ITS POURING RAIN in Las Vegas right now. Flash Flood warnings - the whole works. Its like Seattle outside right now as I look out my window on the top floor of the MGM Grand Signature Suites.
The players got into a major scuffle the other night at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino. A shoving match, thrown drinks, the bartenders had to douse a few players who were jawwing eachother. Not smart for Utah to get Boise fired up like that. One Utah player is referring to Boise St as Girlsie State on his Twitter account. They may have awoke a sleeping Giant. We believe that Boise will take out their frustrations on this Utah team. Look for a dominant Defensive effort and stellar offensive performance from Boise St.
Matt Moore
Jazz at T'Wolves
Pick: Over 207
Over is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games against teams from the Northwest.
Over is 14-3 in Timberwolves last 17 when facing a team with a winning Straight Up record.
Over is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Over is 18-8 in Timberwolves last 26 games following a Straight Up loss of more than 10 points.
Jazz at T'Wolves
Pick: Over 207
Over is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games against teams from the Northwest.
Over is 14-3 in Timberwolves last 17 when facing a team with a winning Straight Up record.
Over is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Over is 18-8 in Timberwolves last 26 games following a Straight Up loss of more than 10 points.
ortland -3jeff benton
WEDNESDAY'S ACTION
20 Dime college football release on UTAH plus the points vs. Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Utah is catching between 15 and 16½ poants depending on where you shop. This number has been all over the place over the past 48 hours, so make sure you get the maxieum underdog value possible with Utah. And if you can get the full 17 points, obdiously that’s a key number in college football.
UTAH
This pointspread took a big plunge on Tuesday, dropping from a high 18 in some spots all the way down to 15 in some spots. The main reason? It’s been raining cats and dogs here in Vegas since early Monday and the forecast is for the precipitation to continue all day today. Throw in some wind, and it’s easy to understand why so much sharp money has come in on Utah over the past 48 hours.
But there’s more at play here than just the weather. This pointspread was inflated to begin with – for Boise State, a team disappointed to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl pre-Christmas when they had the Broncos had their sights set on the BCS championship game (or at least a BCS Bowl game) all season, to join Oklahoma (vs. UConn) as the biggest favorites of the entire bowl season? Against a Utah squad that went 10-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS and has won nine straight bowl games (the longest active streak in college football)? It never made any sense to me.
Sure, I’m aware that Utah is without starting quarterback Jordan Wynn (the sophomore is out with a shoulder injury). But it’s not as though his backup is some freshman slouch. Terrance Cain is a senior who’s been with the Utes the last two years. Last year in limited action, he completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,624 yards, 11 TDs and 5 INTs while adding 318 rushing yards and two additional scores. This year, he appeared in a handful of games and went 51-for-72 for 610 yards with six TDs and two picks.
True, Cain’s numbers pale in comparison to Boise State junior Kellen Morrow (3,506 passing yards, 33 TDs, 5 INTs). And Cain and the Utes will be facing one of the best defenses in college football (Boise State allowed 13.6 points and 264.1 total yards per game, including 155.8 passing yards per game, in the regular season). But Utah’s defense isn’t exactly a joke. The Utes yield just 19.8 points and 319.7 total yards per game, and their rushing defense (104.2 ypg) is better than Boise’s (108.3 ypg).
And while Utah gave up 34 points to San Diego State and 47 points to TCU (the two best teams the Utes faced), Boise’s defense was exposed against its three toughest opponents: Virginia Tech put up 30 (in a neutral-site season-opener); Oregon State scored 24 (at Boise); and Nevada put up 34 (in Reno, handing the Broncos their only loss of the season). Well, Utah’s offense scored 27 points or more in nine of 12 games (winning all nine).
Now, I know most people supporting Boise State will point to one game to support their argument: Utah’s 47-7 home loss to TCU back on Nov. 6, a defeat that ended the Utes’ perfect season. I was on TCU with a 40 Dime play that day, and it was one of the easiest winners I had all year in college football. Is Boise State as good as TCU? Probably. So what makes me think the Broncos won’t have similar success against Utah? Because the Utes have had three full weeks to prepare for this game, and you know they don’t want to get embarrassed on a national stage again.
Back to Utah’s bowl winning streak: It’s not like the Utes have been beating up on patsies from the Sun Belt conference or something. Look at some of the victims: Fresno State and USC (in the 1999 and 2001 Las Vegas Bowls); Pittsburgh and Alabama (in BCS bowls); and Georgia Tech, Navy and California. The Utes have averaged 33.5 ppg in the last six bowl wins (scoring 30-plus points in five of the games), and they’ve held seven of their nine bowl victims to 17 points or less, including Fresno State (16), USC (6), Pitt (7), Georgia Tech (10), Tulsa (13) and Alabama (17).
Utah has cashed in seven of its last eight bowls, going 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog. The Utes are also 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 as an underdog overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six when catching more than 10 points.
Throw in the fact that you have seriously question Boise State’s motivation tonight – again, this was a team that as recently as three weeks ago was undefeated and talking national championship – and the only way to roll in this game is with the underdog (and by the way, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six Las Vegas Bowls).
WEDNESDAY'S ACTION
20 Dime college football release on UTAH plus the points vs. Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Utah is catching between 15 and 16½ poants depending on where you shop. This number has been all over the place over the past 48 hours, so make sure you get the maxieum underdog value possible with Utah. And if you can get the full 17 points, obdiously that’s a key number in college football.
UTAH
This pointspread took a big plunge on Tuesday, dropping from a high 18 in some spots all the way down to 15 in some spots. The main reason? It’s been raining cats and dogs here in Vegas since early Monday and the forecast is for the precipitation to continue all day today. Throw in some wind, and it’s easy to understand why so much sharp money has come in on Utah over the past 48 hours.
But there’s more at play here than just the weather. This pointspread was inflated to begin with – for Boise State, a team disappointed to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl pre-Christmas when they had the Broncos had their sights set on the BCS championship game (or at least a BCS Bowl game) all season, to join Oklahoma (vs. UConn) as the biggest favorites of the entire bowl season? Against a Utah squad that went 10-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS and has won nine straight bowl games (the longest active streak in college football)? It never made any sense to me.
Sure, I’m aware that Utah is without starting quarterback Jordan Wynn (the sophomore is out with a shoulder injury). But it’s not as though his backup is some freshman slouch. Terrance Cain is a senior who’s been with the Utes the last two years. Last year in limited action, he completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,624 yards, 11 TDs and 5 INTs while adding 318 rushing yards and two additional scores. This year, he appeared in a handful of games and went 51-for-72 for 610 yards with six TDs and two picks.
True, Cain’s numbers pale in comparison to Boise State junior Kellen Morrow (3,506 passing yards, 33 TDs, 5 INTs). And Cain and the Utes will be facing one of the best defenses in college football (Boise State allowed 13.6 points and 264.1 total yards per game, including 155.8 passing yards per game, in the regular season). But Utah’s defense isn’t exactly a joke. The Utes yield just 19.8 points and 319.7 total yards per game, and their rushing defense (104.2 ypg) is better than Boise’s (108.3 ypg).
And while Utah gave up 34 points to San Diego State and 47 points to TCU (the two best teams the Utes faced), Boise’s defense was exposed against its three toughest opponents: Virginia Tech put up 30 (in a neutral-site season-opener); Oregon State scored 24 (at Boise); and Nevada put up 34 (in Reno, handing the Broncos their only loss of the season). Well, Utah’s offense scored 27 points or more in nine of 12 games (winning all nine).
Now, I know most people supporting Boise State will point to one game to support their argument: Utah’s 47-7 home loss to TCU back on Nov. 6, a defeat that ended the Utes’ perfect season. I was on TCU with a 40 Dime play that day, and it was one of the easiest winners I had all year in college football. Is Boise State as good as TCU? Probably. So what makes me think the Broncos won’t have similar success against Utah? Because the Utes have had three full weeks to prepare for this game, and you know they don’t want to get embarrassed on a national stage again.
Back to Utah’s bowl winning streak: It’s not like the Utes have been beating up on patsies from the Sun Belt conference or something. Look at some of the victims: Fresno State and USC (in the 1999 and 2001 Las Vegas Bowls); Pittsburgh and Alabama (in BCS bowls); and Georgia Tech, Navy and California. The Utes have averaged 33.5 ppg in the last six bowl wins (scoring 30-plus points in five of the games), and they’ve held seven of their nine bowl victims to 17 points or less, including Fresno State (16), USC (6), Pitt (7), Georgia Tech (10), Tulsa (13) and Alabama (17).
Utah has cashed in seven of its last eight bowls, going 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog. The Utes are also 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 as an underdog overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six when catching more than 10 points.
Throw in the fact that you have seriously question Boise State’s motivation tonight – again, this was a team that as recently as three weeks ago was undefeated and talking national championship – and the only way to roll in this game is with the underdog (and by the way, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six Las Vegas Bowls).
