IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Canisius Golden Griffins @ Syracuse Orange - Wednesday December 17, 2008 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Syracuse Orange -25 (-110) (Play of the Day)
You don't think the #11 team in the country is even a little ticked off after losing from a shot from beyond half court? Rememkber that game? That was our game of the month that we cashed with Cleveland State Outright over Syracuse. Absolutely, the Orangemen are ticked off and they are going to take it out on Canisius today. Remember, Canisius is a team that averages 58 points per game while Syracuse averages over 82 points per game. Don't forget that Syracuse has a strength of schedule that is far more difficult as well. In fact, I would not be a bit surprised today if Canisius does not score more than 50 points. Heck, Syracuse could absolutely kill this team. Why not? This team is itching to play after their outright loss at home to Cleveland State and Canisius is the same team that lost to Albany by 28 points in their first game of the season. They lost to Metro teams in St. Peters by 24, to Manhattan by 18 and Washington State by 26. If Syracuse can beat a top 150 team in Long Beach State by 24 and Cornell by over 35, I certanly believe they are capable of defeating Canisius at home by more than 25 who is a top 300 ranked team. The Orange are 11-5 ATS after an ATS loss and the Golden Griffins of Canisius are 1-4 ATS when playing teams that have a winning % of 60% or greater. Syracuse lays a whooping down today after having to see the highlight of the Cleveland State Viking player make that shot from beyong half court over, and over and over again.
indiancowboy
Take Jacksonville State +11.5 over UAB (Wed @ 8pm est). Folks, Jacksonville State is a very good team and they are very much under the radar. Let me give you some background on them first. This team is from the Ohio Valley Conference and they have sound and incredible coaching frankly from their head stallworth. This team is a top 90 team that has been dynamic winnng some big games including defeating UMass on the road, defeating VMI who is a top 150 school by 28 at home and losing to South Carolina by just 13 points on the road. Now, you might think, IC, UAB is a solid team and this team could kill Jacksonville State today. Not so much. Once again, Jacksonville State has experienced just 1 loss this year and that was against South Carolina in the first game of the season. This team recently went on the road to beat Tennessee Tech by 16 points who is a top 175 school. Look, the bottom line is that Jacksonville State has a 25% shot at winning this game outright and then you tack on the fact this team is catching more than double-digits, I like this game even more as I have them as a 60% chance of covering losing this game by about 6 points as they stay inside the number the whole way. Jacksonville State puts up nearly 80 points per game and the Gamecocks of Jacksonville State are 5-0 ATS as road underdogs as they continue to be undervalued and I will continue to ride the surprising team from Jax State all the way through until Vegas adjust sits line. This is a veteran team that is looking to make a splash before graduation and what better way than against a competent squad like UAB?
Take Michigan State -28.5 over The Citadel (Wed @ 8pm est.) Michigan State ever since that loss to UNC has quickly decided to kill some teams to fall in the favor of the ranking system again. Remember, Michigan State has had no problem since that loss defeating teams by a wide margin at home. Tack on the fact that The Citadel is arguably one of the worst teams in the nation after Loyola Marymound you have yourself a potential for killing here as Michigan State could win this game by a margin of 90-45 - the same large margin that we would be expecting from Syracuse today. Do you know what Michigan State did to the last team they played who is in the top 315 in the power rankings? They beat them by 58 points at home in Alcorn State 118-60. This team beat Idaho by 38 points by a score of 100-62 and Idaho is actually a top 175 school. Look, the bottom line here is that if Michigan State can defeat the likes of top 175 schools by 30 +, then why not a team that is outside the top 300 by a margin of 40+ or even 50+ as they did t Alcorn State.
Take Over 229 between Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers. (Wed @ 7pm est). I like the over here and yes, this is meant to be a 4* selection.This will allow us to have a winning day or not in the NBA given that if we go 1-1. I always like to know that even if we go 1-1 we have a shot at a winning day. As per this game, I talked about it in my research, but there is no reason why this game cannot total in the mid 230's today. Remember, these two teams both play the same style of basketball. It would be great to bet against GS and on Indiana here except for the fact that GS comes off a tough loss at home to Orlando. They also lost to Denver on the road which was a revenge game for the Nuggets from an earlier season loss and also lost to Houston at home as well. Indiana comes off a big win against Washingon. I can see GS being an active dog here as Don Nelson gets his boys to play each and every game especially if they come off some tough losses as they have. This is a very young team which includes the likes of CJ Wilson and company and similar to the Knicks this team can put up shots on any given day against anybody as they purely rely on shooting and with the likes of Jackson, Crawford and Big B down low. Keep in mind that a ten point lead for either team during the course of a game is nothing given that they put up shots like no tomorrow and that can dwindle quickly so I look for both teams to easily exceed 100 and we should see several quarters in each team scoring at least 30 points for their part in that quarter. I have this game totaling 238 as remember, the Knicks vs. Lakers game itself totaled 235 and the Pacers vs. Knicks game totaled above 250 in regulation. Over is 6-1 in the last 7 games in Indiana and the over is 8-1 for the Pacers when they play a team with a losing record.
Take Over 186.5 between Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks (Wed @ 7pm). I rode the over in the series all three times in Atlanta and it is tough for me to not do it here. Here are the reasons why: For one, Atlanta is always competitive at home and gives Boston the biggest headache at home. Remember, the Hawks beat the Celtics all three times at home which even the Lakers couldn't do and the Hawks took the C's to a seventh game and all three games in Atlanta (which they won) went over. Why? Because, Atlanta was an active dog. The scores of those three games were 103-100, 97-92 and 102-93. Atlanta and Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith and Al Horoford are by no means intimidated by this team and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Atlanta won this game outright just like they beat the hottest team in the league in Cleveland who came to a screeching halt as Atlanta beat them outright in their tracks at home. But, do you really want to go against a Boston team that has revenge? After all, Washington swept Boston last year in three games and Boston went into to Washignton and beat them by 30+ points to get out their frustration. Boston did the same to NO at home in a game they had revenge. So, in essence, why not roll with the incentives for both teams? We have Boston who wants to kill Atlanta as they have not beat this team in Atlanta all year and will not let up on this team if at all possible and you have Atlanta who will get up for this game as they got killed by this team in Game 7 on the road and barely lost to this team in Boston earlier this year in a game that totaled 205. I will gladly take the over here for all the reasons above as the over is 5-1 in this series or late and the over is 3-0 in Atlanta of late as well.
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