Craig Davis
20 Dime --- HAWKS
10 Dime --- WARRIORS
ATLANTA HAWKS --- Complete mismatch here, as we get a tired and weary Chicago team leaving home where they just lost to the lowly New Jersey Nets (giving them just their second win of the season). Now, the Bulls have to lick their wounds, hop on a red-eye flight to Atlanta and get ready for a well-rested Atlanta Hawks team that has lost just two games at home all season. The Hawks haven't played since an 80-75 win over the Dallas Mavericks on December 5th. When getting 3+ days of rest, the Hawks are a respectable 2-1 ATS, and the last time they were in this situation they came back home to score 146 points in a 146-115 win over the Raptors.
The amount of points the Hawks might score tonight is endless, not only because of the rest but because of their 80-point output in the last game. If they can win (and cover) scoring just 80 points, just imagine what they're going to do tonight when they score over 100. They average 104 PPG for the season, but over 110 at home while allowing just 98 PPG, and with nothing of major importance on the horizon this isn't going to be one of those "look ahead" games. The Hawks haven't been treating the home folks kindly recently, dropping two of their last three, so they're looking to take it out on the Bulls tonight.
Chicago, to put it mildly, is in a major funk. They have injury issues all over the place, they don't have a tremendous amount of depth, and they're limping in off the heels of that horrible loss last night. You thik they want to be playing a road game tonight? They won't show up, period. The biggest difference between this year's team and last year's team that took the Celtics to the brink in the playoffs is the play (or lack thereof) of John Salmons. When he initially came over from Sacramento, Salmons was hitting everything and provided that much needed spark they were seeking. This year, he's been a train wreck. Just 12 PPG over his last three and less than 40% from the field through the first quarter of the season.
When you compare that to his 47% shooting the last three season, this year has been a huge disappointment so far. His FT% is down 8 points, his 3-point shooting percentage is also down 8 points as compared to the previous three seasons. Unless he gets it turned around, this team is going to continue to struggle as they have so many times already this year, especially on the road (2-9). Chicago hasn't covered a number yet this season on the second game of back-to-back nights (0-4 ATS) and tonight they should be even further "down in the dumps" after giving New Jersey just their second win of the season. This one won't be close... I'm calling for a 20-point Hawks win.
GOLDEN STATE --- Two things in our favor here tonight. First, New Jersey absolutely has to have an amazing amount of confidence after going into Chicago and getting their second win of the season, 101-100. Talk about over-confident... well, maybe it's not even overconfidence... maybe it's just a relief that they earned their second win of the season. Either way, there is absolutely no chance this team wins two games in a row. They haven't done it yet this season and I don't know why it would start tonight.
Secondly, the Golden State Warriors just scored a season-low 88 points in a blowout loss at Oklahoma City... and for a team that averages 109 PPG, that last output can't sit well with them. It just can't. In fact, the last two times the Warriors failed to reach triple figures, they came back the next game to score 108 and 126, respectively. And considering the Nets have scored 100 or more points just three times all season (never back-to-back), it's absolutely impossible for me to see them doing it tonight. They scored 101 in last night's upset win over the Bulls and nothing can convince me they get to that point total again this evening.
That win, combined with Golden State's most recent loss, gives us tremendous line value here tonight. Had things been different the last few nights, Golden State would likely be giving five or six points tonight. The Warriors are an amazing 13-3 ATS over their last 16 vs. teams from the Atlantic division and they've covered 9 of their last 13 overall this season. Meanwhile, the Nets are not only losing games, they aren't covering the number, having dropped 8 of their last 10 games ATS. All I'm asking Golden State to do here tonight is win the game by a few points... something that should be easily attainable under the circumstances.
20 Dime --- HAWKS
10 Dime --- WARRIORS
ATLANTA HAWKS --- Complete mismatch here, as we get a tired and weary Chicago team leaving home where they just lost to the lowly New Jersey Nets (giving them just their second win of the season). Now, the Bulls have to lick their wounds, hop on a red-eye flight to Atlanta and get ready for a well-rested Atlanta Hawks team that has lost just two games at home all season. The Hawks haven't played since an 80-75 win over the Dallas Mavericks on December 5th. When getting 3+ days of rest, the Hawks are a respectable 2-1 ATS, and the last time they were in this situation they came back home to score 146 points in a 146-115 win over the Raptors.
The amount of points the Hawks might score tonight is endless, not only because of the rest but because of their 80-point output in the last game. If they can win (and cover) scoring just 80 points, just imagine what they're going to do tonight when they score over 100. They average 104 PPG for the season, but over 110 at home while allowing just 98 PPG, and with nothing of major importance on the horizon this isn't going to be one of those "look ahead" games. The Hawks haven't been treating the home folks kindly recently, dropping two of their last three, so they're looking to take it out on the Bulls tonight.
Chicago, to put it mildly, is in a major funk. They have injury issues all over the place, they don't have a tremendous amount of depth, and they're limping in off the heels of that horrible loss last night. You thik they want to be playing a road game tonight? They won't show up, period. The biggest difference between this year's team and last year's team that took the Celtics to the brink in the playoffs is the play (or lack thereof) of John Salmons. When he initially came over from Sacramento, Salmons was hitting everything and provided that much needed spark they were seeking. This year, he's been a train wreck. Just 12 PPG over his last three and less than 40% from the field through the first quarter of the season.
When you compare that to his 47% shooting the last three season, this year has been a huge disappointment so far. His FT% is down 8 points, his 3-point shooting percentage is also down 8 points as compared to the previous three seasons. Unless he gets it turned around, this team is going to continue to struggle as they have so many times already this year, especially on the road (2-9). Chicago hasn't covered a number yet this season on the second game of back-to-back nights (0-4 ATS) and tonight they should be even further "down in the dumps" after giving New Jersey just their second win of the season. This one won't be close... I'm calling for a 20-point Hawks win.
GOLDEN STATE --- Two things in our favor here tonight. First, New Jersey absolutely has to have an amazing amount of confidence after going into Chicago and getting their second win of the season, 101-100. Talk about over-confident... well, maybe it's not even overconfidence... maybe it's just a relief that they earned their second win of the season. Either way, there is absolutely no chance this team wins two games in a row. They haven't done it yet this season and I don't know why it would start tonight.
Secondly, the Golden State Warriors just scored a season-low 88 points in a blowout loss at Oklahoma City... and for a team that averages 109 PPG, that last output can't sit well with them. It just can't. In fact, the last two times the Warriors failed to reach triple figures, they came back the next game to score 108 and 126, respectively. And considering the Nets have scored 100 or more points just three times all season (never back-to-back), it's absolutely impossible for me to see them doing it tonight. They scored 101 in last night's upset win over the Bulls and nothing can convince me they get to that point total again this evening.
That win, combined with Golden State's most recent loss, gives us tremendous line value here tonight. Had things been different the last few nights, Golden State would likely be giving five or six points tonight. The Warriors are an amazing 13-3 ATS over their last 16 vs. teams from the Atlantic division and they've covered 9 of their last 13 overall this season. Meanwhile, the Nets are not only losing games, they aren't covering the number, having dropped 8 of their last 10 games ATS. All I'm asking Golden State to do here tonight is win the game by a few points... something that should be easily attainable under the circumstances.
maximus report picks
LOCKS ----------------------Prediction
rider +2 ------------------------ Rider 79-62
Valp +24.5 ---------------------Purdue 80-67
Uconn -1 ----------------------Uconn 75-64
SOLIDS
Kansas -33 -------------------Kansas 109-65
SE Missouri st +13 ------------SE Missouri ST. 63-56
MONEYLINERS
SE Missouri ST. +550
LOCKS ----------------------Prediction
rider +2 ------------------------ Rider 79-62
Valp +24.5 ---------------------Purdue 80-67
Uconn -1 ----------------------Uconn 75-64
SOLIDS
Kansas -33 -------------------Kansas 109-65
SE Missouri st +13 ------------SE Missouri ST. 63-56
MONEYLINERS
SE Missouri ST. +550
Stan Sharp | CBB Sides Wed, 12/09/09 - 11:00 PM ¦‰
triple-dime bet 743 Idaho 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 744 Washington St.
Analysis: Stan is Betting IDAHO . Stan notes that the public is all over Washington St in this game as they expect Washington St to bounce back after playing road games at Gonzaga and Kansas St. Idaho is a live dog here and will take this game right to the final bu~zzer. TAKE IDAHO as STAN'S TRIPLE DIME WISE GUY GAME and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
triple-dime bet 743 Idaho 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 744 Washington St.
Analysis: Stan is Betting IDAHO . Stan notes that the public is all over Washington St in this game as they expect Washington St to bounce back after playing road games at Gonzaga and Kansas St. Idaho is a live dog here and will take this game right to the final bu~zzer. TAKE IDAHO as STAN'S TRIPLE DIME WISE GUY GAME and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
Demarco
5 Dime - Arizona
I came thisclose to backing Connecticut tonight at Madison Square Garden against Kentucky, but just like last night's Butler-Georgetown game, I have this sneaky suspicion the Huskies are a trap just like the Bulldogs were last night. Plus, how many times have I said over the past 25 years that the marquee games are the toughest to win because their lines are always the sharpest?
Last night I veered off to the Lone Star State instead and found a winner on Texas Tech against TCU. Tonight I'm heading to Tucson for another obscure game on the college card and backing Arizona minus the points at home against Louisiana Tech.
On the surface, it looks strange that Arizona is laying a considerable number of points in this one despite the fact the Wildcats have dropped three in a row and tonight's opponent, LA Tech, is 7-1 on the season. But the 'Cats have nothing to be ashamed of losing at Oklahoma, in overtime at home to UNLV, and in the Maui Invitation to Vanderbilt, three teams that are a combined 18-5 on the season.
Vandy's two losses came against Cincinnati and Illinois. UNLV remains undefeated. And Arizona's loss at Oklahoma, a game in which it got pounded, is certainly understandable considering it came just four days after a 74-72 double-overtime home loss to the Runnin' Rebels.
FYI - Arizona is 3-4 on the season with its other loss coming against a 6-1 Wisconsin club's whose only loss came against Gonzaga. So, the teams that beat the 'Cats this year are a combined 24-6; not too shabby.
Now, let's look at Louisiana Tech's 7-1 record. Sure, the Bulldogs beat Miami of Ohio by 12, but those were the same Redhawks that got drilled by Temple last night by 22 to fall to 2-6 on the season. They beat TCU, but they beat the Horned Frogs last year, too. As I've noted previously, I look for how teams fare in non-conference "step-up" games and I see just one on LA Tech's schedule, an 81-52 loss to undefeated New Mexico. Otherwise, wins against U.L. Monroe, Northwestern State and Texas-Pan Am don't really excite me.
This is certainly a rebuilding year for Arizona as first-year coach Sean Miller has surrounded senior sharp-shooting guard Nic Wise (16.6 ppg) and junior forward Jamelle Horne (10.6 ppg, 8.6 reb) with a talented freshman class led by forwards Derrick Williams (14.6 ppg, 6.0 reb) and Solomon Hill (9.3 ppg, 5.1 reb). But Miller isn't afraid to make moves, yanking starting shooting guard Brendon Lavender (5.1 ppg; 34% FG) from the starting line-up after seven ineffective outings and replacing him tonight with Kyle Fogg.
This is a key game for the 'Cats, who have a tough game at 6-2 San Diego State coming up this weekend and visits from N.C. State and BYU two weeks from now before tipping off the Pac-10 portion of their schedule with a visit to USC on New Year's Eve.
Having won last night with Texas Tech - and playing with the profit reaped from 5 straight NFL winners the past couple of weeks - I'm more than willing to reinvest it tonight on Arizona.
5 Dime - Arizona
I came thisclose to backing Connecticut tonight at Madison Square Garden against Kentucky, but just like last night's Butler-Georgetown game, I have this sneaky suspicion the Huskies are a trap just like the Bulldogs were last night. Plus, how many times have I said over the past 25 years that the marquee games are the toughest to win because their lines are always the sharpest?
Last night I veered off to the Lone Star State instead and found a winner on Texas Tech against TCU. Tonight I'm heading to Tucson for another obscure game on the college card and backing Arizona minus the points at home against Louisiana Tech.
On the surface, it looks strange that Arizona is laying a considerable number of points in this one despite the fact the Wildcats have dropped three in a row and tonight's opponent, LA Tech, is 7-1 on the season. But the 'Cats have nothing to be ashamed of losing at Oklahoma, in overtime at home to UNLV, and in the Maui Invitation to Vanderbilt, three teams that are a combined 18-5 on the season.
Vandy's two losses came against Cincinnati and Illinois. UNLV remains undefeated. And Arizona's loss at Oklahoma, a game in which it got pounded, is certainly understandable considering it came just four days after a 74-72 double-overtime home loss to the Runnin' Rebels.
FYI - Arizona is 3-4 on the season with its other loss coming against a 6-1 Wisconsin club's whose only loss came against Gonzaga. So, the teams that beat the 'Cats this year are a combined 24-6; not too shabby.
Now, let's look at Louisiana Tech's 7-1 record. Sure, the Bulldogs beat Miami of Ohio by 12, but those were the same Redhawks that got drilled by Temple last night by 22 to fall to 2-6 on the season. They beat TCU, but they beat the Horned Frogs last year, too. As I've noted previously, I look for how teams fare in non-conference "step-up" games and I see just one on LA Tech's schedule, an 81-52 loss to undefeated New Mexico. Otherwise, wins against U.L. Monroe, Northwestern State and Texas-Pan Am don't really excite me.
This is certainly a rebuilding year for Arizona as first-year coach Sean Miller has surrounded senior sharp-shooting guard Nic Wise (16.6 ppg) and junior forward Jamelle Horne (10.6 ppg, 8.6 reb) with a talented freshman class led by forwards Derrick Williams (14.6 ppg, 6.0 reb) and Solomon Hill (9.3 ppg, 5.1 reb). But Miller isn't afraid to make moves, yanking starting shooting guard Brendon Lavender (5.1 ppg; 34% FG) from the starting line-up after seven ineffective outings and replacing him tonight with Kyle Fogg.
This is a key game for the 'Cats, who have a tough game at 6-2 San Diego State coming up this weekend and visits from N.C. State and BYU two weeks from now before tipping off the Pac-10 portion of their schedule with a visit to USC on New Year's Eve.
Having won last night with Texas Tech - and playing with the profit reaped from 5 straight NFL winners the past couple of weeks - I'm more than willing to reinvest it tonight on Arizona.
