VegasButcher
Philadelphia 76ers +3
The Sixers have to eventually win at least one game right? Here are the average leads throughout their first 4 games: -1.8 @ IND (lost by 12), -0.4 @ MIL (lost by 12), -4.5 vs MIA (lost by 18), -5.9 vs HOU (lost by 11). This is very interesting actually as the numbers indicate that the Sixers have stuck around in games so far this year, but have completely fallen apart in the 4th quarters. The average lead (deficit I guess) for them this year has been -3.2 points, but their final average MOV is -13.3, a difference of more than 10 points. That’s a huge differential right there. Of course MIA and HOU are on a different level of talent, but undermanned IND and MIL are similar teams to Orlando, and in those games Philly had a -1.8 and -0.4 point leads throughout. I think that’s a better metric to use than to just blindly look at the final scores. Orlando was 4-37 (9.8% win rate) on the road last season and is 0-2 so far this year. Philly was 10-31 (24%) at home last year. They’re also catching Orlando on a b2b on the road while Philly is playing their 3rd straight at home, with a day-off yesterday. Magic were involved in a very close game @ Chicago last night, a game that went down to the wire. Vucevic and Fournier logged 40 mins, Harris had 37, Frye 36, and rookie Payton 32. Orlando was close to winning the game, so had to use their best players with limited minutes going to the bench. It was probably the best and most complete game that the Magic played all season long. Of course this is the NBA, and on a b2b on the road, ‘strong efforts’ tend to be followed by ‘disappointing ones’ especially for younger teams. At the very least, this one should be close, and hopefully for Philly, for more than just 3 quarters.
Boston Celtics -2
This one opened at +1.5 Boston but now shifted about 2.5 points. There are a couple of reasons for the shift. First, Toronto is on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Don’t let the final score fool you (100-88), yesterday’s game was a grinder. The average lead in the game was +0.8 TOR, as Thunder hung around throughout. Second of all, Amir Johnson will once again miss today’s game and Jonas Valanciunas might not be at 100% after injuring his hand and then later taking an elbow to the face. Boston is coming off a game at Dallas where they really showed some ‘fight’. They were down 26 points at halftime but fought hard in the 2nd half and only lost by 5. Boston registered 22 offensive rebounds, had an AST-rate of 64%, and had 30 FBP’s (Fast Break Points) in the game. This team ranks 2nd in the league in PACE and I’d expect them to push the tempo tonight. The question is, can the undermanned Raptors playing in a tough physical spot keep up?
Washington Wizards -9.5
Besides the huge talent gap here, there are a couple more mismatches in this one. First, Washington has the size to really cause problems for the Pacers in the paint, forcing Indiana into inefficient long-range shots. Indiana is 22nd in Off-Eff (18th in eFG%) and if they shot under 40% at home while scoring 81 points against the Bucks, they’ll have even more trouble on the road @ Washington. Second factor are the turnovers. The Pacers are 27th in TO-rate offensively, while the Wizards rank 3rd defensively in this metric. Indiana committed 17, 18, 18, 17 TO’s in their first 4 games and only one of those teams (Memphis) is known for their D. While both teams are on a b2b, the difference in talent should be even more pronounced in a ‘fatigue spot’. The Pacers eliminated the Wizards from the playoffs last season, and I expect Washington to get some ‘revenge’ tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5
This one was -1 MEM not too long ago and is now +1.5. Conley is playing as far as I’m aware though if he was out, that would justify this move. Courtney Lee is also expected to play so Memphis will have some depth tonight. The Suns are on a b2b in this one. They played @ Utah on the 1st, then @ LA yesterday, and had to travel home for tonight’s game. I know the Suns are 3-1 so far, but they beat both LAL and SAS at home with both of those squads playing in a b2b spot. They then got destroyed @ Utah, when Phoenix themselves were in a b2b spot. And then yesterday’s 6-point win against the defense-less Lakers wasn’t that impressive. Now Phoenix will get to face the #2 ranked defensive team and they are once again playing in a b2b spot. Against Utah, in a similar spot, Phoenix got outrebounded 52 to 34, allowed 66 PIP (Points In the Paint), and allowed the Jazz 33 trips to the FT-line. Grizzlies have the size advantage in the post, they are pretty good at getting to the FT-line on offense, and of course they are fresher of the two teams. Now if only I could figure out the reason for the line movement…
Denver Nuggets +4
The Kings rank 7th in Def-Eff and 5th in eFG%-a. What the heck is going on here?!? Is this just the small sample size or did Sacramento turn the corner and actually decided to start playing some D? Denver by comparison ranks 27th in Off-Eff and 30th in eFG% on offense. They look like one of the worst teams in the league to start out this season. Of course it’s important to note that they rank 4th in Def Eff and 6th in eFG%-a. So clearly we’re experiencing some sort of ‘déjà vu’ for both squads. In any case, these teams just played each other on the 3rd. Denver was at home while Sacramento was on a b2b and 3in4 spot. The Nuggz were -6.5 home favorites, but lost the game. As awful as they looked in the game, they only lost by 5 and trailed on average by -1.5 points in that one. Clearly it was a pretty close contest. So the question today is, are the Nuggets undervalued for the rematch today? The line went from -6.5 to +4, a 10.5 point adjustment. Is this an OVER-adjustment? Quite possibly. I know the Nuggets aren’t shooting the ball well, but out of their 74 3PT attempts, 60 came with a defender being at least 4 feet away. That classifies as a very open shot, yet the Nuggz only made 25% of those. On Monday, Lawson was 1 for 8, Denver shot 5 for 24 from the 3, and they let Sacramento’s mediocre bench players go wild scoring 43% of the total points. Could we see a few more shots fall in and a better effort from Denver in the rematch tonight? I think so. At the very least, I think the line-value is on them in this one.
Golden State Warriors -4.5
The premier game of the day here but will this even be a close game? Clippers are 0-4 ATS on the season and now will face a Warriors team that ranks #1 in DefEff to start out the season. LA barely beat OKC at home when Westbrook went down in the 2nd quarter, they had trouble putting away the Lakers the next night (won by 7 only), they lost to the Kings at home, and then barely beat Utah at home (by 6) though it was their 4th game in 5 nights. Today’s game actually will be LA’s 5th game in 7 nights and will be the toughest test of the young season. Warriors have had 2-days off and are getting Lee back for this one. They are also playing with ‘playoff revenge’ in this one, after getting eliminated by the Clips in a 7-game series last season. The Clips could be facing a very motivated Warriors squad in this one in front of a national audience on ESPN.
