Statsystems cfb report 11/17
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/17
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - CFB *****
*** MIAMI OHIO (-10.5, O/U 47.5) @ AKRON ***
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If the RedHawks want a chance at the East Division title in the Mid-American Conference than Miami-Ohio is going to have to go to Akron this Wednesday night and defeat the Zips at InfoCision Stadium. The RedHawks come into this weekend trailing Ohio for the lead in the East Division at 5-1. The Owls and Bobcats clashed on Tuesday in a game won by the Bobcats. Coming into this outing, the RedHawks have won three of their last four games, and all three wins have come on the road, including a 24-21 decision over Bowling Green on November 10th.
As for the Zips, they are winless through 10 games, and it is now safe to say that Rob Ianello's first year in Akron has been a disappointment. The last time Akron was in action, the team came close to that illusive first win, but eventually fell to Ball State, 37-30, in overtime. It was just the second of the 10 setbacks that came by a singe-digit deficit. The RedHawks have dominated the all-time series against Akron, posting a 13-5-1 overall ledger. However, four of Akron's five victories have come at home.
With visibility minimal due to severe fog, the Redhawks withstood Bowling Green's comeback attempt and used a 33-yard field goal by Trevor Cook as time expired to remain in contention for the east division with a 24-21 victory. Miami, which has relied heavily on the pass this season, needed to find success on the ground to overcome the fog, and fortunately the RedHawks received a solid showing from Thomas Merriweather, who rushed for 88 yards and one score. Quarterback Zac Dysert added a touchdown on the ground as well, but also finished the game with 221 yards and one touchdown. The touchdown pass went to Nick Harwell, who continues to improve on the season, and finished the game with 125 yards on 10 receptions.
Even though Miami was able to eclipse the 100-yard mark on the ground against BGSU, the team has still struggled in this are for most of the season, racking up just 72.1 ypg on 2.4 yards per attempt. With the team's inability to move the ball on the ground, the RedHawks have had to rely on Dysert's arm, which has been an inconsistent commodity. Dysert has thrown for 2,406 yards and 13 touchdowns, but has also been intercepted 12 times. As mentioned earlier, Harwell continues to improve and now has 615 yards and four touchdowns. Also with four scores is Armand Robinson, who is leading the team with 696 yards and 65 catches.
The RedHawks might have surrendered two fourth quarter touchdowns, but aside from the late breakdown, this unit was once again very solid. Miami held Bowling Green to just 220 total yards, and forced three crucial, one of which was an interception with just over two minutes remaining in the contest. This defense continues to defy the odds every time they are on the field, and even though the RedHawks are currently allowing 26.6 ppg, they still find ways to win. What has helped this unit has been its ability to force mistakes, as the RedHawks come into this matchup with 23 takeaways. Through 10 games the RedHawks have allowed 23 rushing touchdowns, which shows when opponents get near the end zone this frontline weakens, but overall the unit has done a respectable job in this area, holding teams to just 131.1 ypg on 3.9 yards per attempt.
The Zips scored more than 20 points for only the second time this season the last time they were on the field, but it still wasn't enough for Akron to grab its first victory. Akron finished with 30 points in its loss to Ball State, and sure it was a double-overtime matchup, but the Zips showed great poise offensively, especially quarterback Patrick Nicely, who led the team on a drive in the final minutes that eventually sent the game into overtime. Nicely finished with four touchdowns and 178 yards, but he continues to make mistakes and tossed three interceptions, one of which came in the second extra session, sealing the win for Ball State. It has been a rough season for Nicely and this offense, and while the quarterback has only thrown for 1,360 yards and seven touchdowns, he has not received any help from the rushing attack, which is churning out just 112.3 ypg on only 3.4 yards per attempt.
The offensive performance was by no means perfect, but the unit did everything it could to keep Akron in the game. However, the defense was just not up to the task of stopping the opponent, which has been the case in each game. In the loss to Ball State it was the secondary for Akron that was embarrassed, as the Cardinals torched the Zips for 266 yards and four scores. Defending the pass has been a major issue for coach Ianello's defense, as opponents are lighting up the sky against Akron for 268.8 ypg, and has already scored 27 touchdowns via the pass against this unit. However, the secondary is not the only reason for the struggles of this unit, because Akron has also been unable to stop any team from running the ball. At the present moment, the Zips are being abused for 168.8 ypg, and along with its inability to stop the pass, it does not seem like Akron will have a shot at grabbing a win this Wednesday, and possibly in its finale.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Akron is 0-10, with two OT losses; their other eight losses were all by 11+ points- they've been outscored 78-13 in first half of their last four games. Miami, O is 9-2 in last 11 games vs Akron; teams didn't play last two years; favorites won last three series games played here- Miami lost last visit here, 24-13. Miami is 6-4 and bowl eligible, but only four of the six wins are by more than seven points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami Ohio by 14; O/U 48
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami Ohio -11.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami Ohio -12.47
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--AKRON is 1-9 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=120 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was AKRON 18.9, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI OHIO is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 18.6, OPPONENT 35.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--AKRON is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was AKRON 25.6, OPPONENT 34.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI OHIO is 8-2 UNDER (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 19.9, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--MIAMI OHIO is 9-22 against the 1rst half line (-15.2 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 13.9, OPPONENT 12.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI OHIO is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) in a road game where the first half total is between 22.5 and 24.5 since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 7.3, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--AKRON is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was AKRON 10.4, OPPONENT 14.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI OHIO is 23-8 OVER (+14.6 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 16.6, OPPONENT 13.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.
(43-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.5%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (27-37 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 24.4, Opponent 25.6 (Average point differential = -1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (38.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-9).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (82-51).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (MIAMI OHIO) - after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13.
(74-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +33.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.8, Opponent 13.1 (Total first half points scored = 26.9)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-23).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (102-61).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (103-63).
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