NBA Play- GC
On Wednesday the Free NBA play is on the Phiadelphia Seventy Sixers. Game 708 at 7:05 eastern. Philly applies to a nice home opener system that plays on home teams in game 1 vs an opponent that opened their season on the road the night before. Philly like most teams will be energized especially with Lebron and the Miami Heat in town. As we saw last night. The Heat has enough talent to stay in any game. However they have not played much together and it will take time before they get cohesive enough to blow out opposing teams. While I think they will win this one. I wont rush to lay over 7 points with them until I see them start to get better spacing on the floor and become more of a team oriented unit. For tonight we will back the Sixers on their home floor plus the points. On Wednesday I have a solid NBA Season opening System side that also has 2 Powerful Angles that apply. I also have the side in Game 1 of the World Series. On Tuesday we swept the board for a 2nd straight night cashing with the Celtics and the total in the College football game. For the Bonus Play tonight take the Philadelphia 76ers. GC
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On Wednesday the Free NBA play is on the Phiadelphia Seventy Sixers. Game 708 at 7:05 eastern. Philly applies to a nice home opener system that plays on home teams in game 1 vs an opponent that opened their season on the road the night before. Philly like most teams will be energized especially with Lebron and the Miami Heat in town. As we saw last night. The Heat has enough talent to stay in any game. However they have not played much together and it will take time before they get cohesive enough to blow out opposing teams. While I think they will win this one. I wont rush to lay over 7 points with them until I see them start to get better spacing on the floor and become more of a team oriented unit. For tonight we will back the Sixers on their home floor plus the points. On Wednesday I have a solid NBA Season opening System side that also has 2 Powerful Angles that apply. I also have the side in Game 1 of the World Series. On Tuesday we swept the board for a 2nd straight night cashing with the Celtics and the total in the College football game. For the Bonus Play tonight take the Philadelphia 76ers. GC
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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
Wednesday Baseball
100* Play Texas (-125) over San Francisco
Game starts at 8:00 PM EST
Texas pitcher, Cliff Lee has won 8 consecutive playoff games and he has also won 7 consecutive road games when playing with seven days or more of rest. Cliff Lee is 3-0 vs. San Francisco over his career with an ERA of 1.13 and he is also 3-0 over the last 3 overall starts with an ERA of 0.75.
NHL Hockey Wednesday
25* Play Montreal (-160) over NY Islanders
Wednesday Baseball
100* Play Texas (-125) over San Francisco
Game starts at 8:00 PM EST
Texas pitcher, Cliff Lee has won 8 consecutive playoff games and he has also won 7 consecutive road games when playing with seven days or more of rest. Cliff Lee is 3-0 vs. San Francisco over his career with an ERA of 1.13 and he is also 3-0 over the last 3 overall starts with an ERA of 0.75.
NHL Hockey Wednesday
25* Play Montreal (-160) over NY Islanders
Statsystems report 10/27
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 10/27
2010 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW & NBA
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH -- MLB & NBA *****
*** 2010 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW ***
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The World Series gets underway Wednesday night in San Francisco with two unlikely franchises playing for baseball’s most coveted prize. The Giants haven’t won a World Series since 1954 and Texas is making it’s first-ever appearance in franchise's 50th season in the Fall Classic. The only pitching matchup set in stone is Game 1 that is scheduled to feature aces Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum.
• SCHEDULE
---------------------
(All times EDT) Game 1, Wednesday, at San Francisco (7:57 p.m.); Game 2, Thursday, at San Francisco (7:57 p.m.); Game 3, Saturday, at Arlington, Texas (6:57 p.m.); Game 4, Sunday, at Arlington, Texas (8:20 p.m.); x-Game 5, Monday, Nov. 1, at Arlington, Texas (6:57 p.m.); x-Game 6, Wednesday, Nov. 3, at San Francisco (7:57 p.m.); x-Game 7, Thursday, Nov. 4, at San Francisco (7:57 p.m.). (All games on FOX).
• PROJECTED LINEUPS
----------------------------
Rangers: SS Elvis Andrus (.265, 0 HRs, 35 RBIs, 88 runs, 32/47 SBs), 3B Michael Young (.284, 21, 91, 99 runs, career-high 115 strikeouts), CF Josh Hamilton (major league-leading .359, 32, 100), RF Vladimir Guerrero (.300, 29, 115), LF Nelson Cruz (.318, 22, 78 in 108 games), 2B Ian Kinsler (.286, 9, 45), C Bengie Molina (.240, 2, 19 in 57 games since acquired from San Francisco), 1B Mitch Moreland (.255, 9, 25 in 47 games since called up from Triple-A on July 29).
Giants: CF Andres Torres (.268, 16, 63, 26 SBs), 2B Freddy Sanchez (.292, 7, 47), 1B Aubrey Huff (.290, 26, 86), C Buster Posey (.305, 18, 67 after being called up from minors May 29), LF Pat Burrell (.266, 18, 51, signed to minor league deal May 29 after release by Tampa Bay and called up from Triple-A on June 4), RF Cody Ross (.269, 14, 65 with Florida and Giants), 3B Juan Uribe (.248, 24, 85), SS Edgar Renteria (.276, 3, 22 in 72 games).
• PROJECTED ROTATIONS
--------------------------------
Rangers: LH Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA, 7 CGs in 28 starts, 185 Ks, 18 walks, 212 1-3 innings; 4-6, 3.98 in 15 starts after acquired from Seattle on July 9), LH C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35, 3 CGs in 33 starts), RH Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 in career-high 201 innings), RH Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73).
Giants: RH Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43, 231 Ks), RH Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14, 177 Ks), LH Jonathan Sanchez (13-9, 3.07, 205 Ks, career-high 193 1-3 innings), LH Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00, 86 Ks in 18 starts as rookie).
• RELIEVERS
---------------
Rangers: RH Neftali Feliz (4-3, 2.37, MLB rookie-record 40 saves in 43 chances), RH Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03 in 72 games), RH Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30 in 44 games), LH Darren Oliver (1-2, 2.48 ERA in 64 games), LH Derek Holland (3-4, 4.08 in 14 games, 10 starts), LH Clay Rapada (0-0, 4.00 in 13 games after September call-up), LH Michael Kirkman (0-0, 1.65 in 14 games after Aug. 20 recall).
Giants: RH Brian Wilson (3-3, 1.81, major league-best 48/53 saves), RH Ramon Ramirez (1-0, 0.67, 1 save), LH Javier Lopez (4-2, 2.34), LH Jeremy Affeldt (4-3, 4.14, 4 saves), RH Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95, 2 saves), RH Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18).
• MATCHUPS
----------------
Rangers make it four times in six seasons that a team is playing in its first World Series. Previous three all lost in five games or fewer: Houston (2005), Colorado (2007) and Tampa Bay (2008). Giants haven't won World Series since upsetting Cleveland Indians, when Willie Mays and Co. played at Polo Grounds in New York. Club moved to San Francisco for 1958 season, three years before Rangers franchise began play as expansion Washington Senators. Team moved to Texas, with Ted Williams as manager, and changed name in 1972.
Giants lead all-time series against Texas 15-7 and have won last seven meetings (2001-09). Rangers have lost 11 in a row in San Francisco, where they are 2-12. Rangers and Giants both hit 162 home runs during regular season, averaging one per game. In playoffs, Texas had 17 in 11 games and Giants hit six in 10 games. Lee is 3-0 in three career starts against San Francisco while holding Giants to 159 batting average. He has 21 strikeouts and four walks in 24 innings, and threw complete game against them on July 31, 2009, his first start for Philadelphia after being traded from Cleveland.
Molina was Giants' starting catcher for 3 1/2 seasons until they traded him to Texas on July 1. That cleared the way in San Francisco for rookie Posey to be everyday catcher. Molina hit .276 with 58 home runs and 273 RBIs in 472 games for the Giants. Guerrero is .330 career hitter against Giants, with nine homers and 31 RBIs in 62 games. He was primarily DH this season, playing only 18 games in outfield. He's likely to move back to old spot in right during games in San Francisco, where NL rules prohibit DH. Bad knees from all those years on hard turf in Montreal have slowed him, and right field in San Francisco can be tricky, with some odd angles and long runs. Look for strong-armed Jeff Francoeur to play RF against left-handed starters back home in Texas.
Giants can use switch-hitter Pablo Sandoval at DH in Texas. His production dropped off dramatically this season, but "Kung Fu Panda" is still dangerous at plate. Oliver, 40, was a starter and the loser when Texas lost 8-3 to San Francisco on June 12, 1997, in baseball's first inter-league game. He allowed four runs and eight hits in 7 2-3 innings. Giants have home-field advantage in World Series because NL won All-Star game in July, first victory over AL since 1996.
• BIG PICTURE
------------------
Rangers: Texas (90-72) won its fourth AL West title and first since 1999, taking over first place for good June 8 and leading division for 154 days in all. Going into playoffs, Texas was only current major league franchise that hadn't won a playoff series. Rangers had never won a playoff game at home, either. Then they beat Tampa Bay, which had AL's best record during regular season, in five games in first round when road team won every game - a first in major league history.
Texas blew late lead at home to wild-card Yankees in ALCS opener but won Game 2 at Rangers Ballpark to snap 10-game postseason losing streak to New York. Rangers clinched first World Series berth with Game 6 victory at home before 51,404 frenzied fans under Friday night lights. Texas was eliminated from postseason by Yankees in previous three appearances - 1996, 1998 and '99.
After Hamilton went 2 for 18 with two singles in division series, he was ALCS MVP, hitting .350 (7 for 20) with four home runs, seven RBIs and eight walks (five intentional, three in Game 6). Cruz also hit .350 in ALCS, with three doubles and two homers. He hit three homers in first round. Guerrero's only three RBIs in ALCS came in Game 6, after not starting ALCS opener. Moreland went 7 for 18 (.389) with three RBIs while starting final five games.
Season began with team for sale, a drawn-out process that included bankruptcy before Hall of Fame pitcher and team president Nolan Ryan's group finally won auction in mid-August with bid valued at $590 million to buy club from Tom Hicks. There also was manager Ron Washington's admission in spring training that he used cocaine once during 2009 season. Washington offered to resign, but Ryan and general manager Jon Daniels stuck by him last year when it became public. Rangers have increased win total each year under Washington, who is in fourth season.
Despite financial constraints, Texas acquired Lee from Seattle when it looked as though he was headed to Yankees. Daniels also made midseason deals for Molina, Francoeur and Jorge Cantu. Daniels and Ryan have transformed team known for power hitting and poor pitching into athletic club with quality arms. Just look at how Rangers beat Rays and Yankees. Team ERA of 3.93 was clubs lowest since 3.83 mark in 1990. Rangers led majors with .276 batting average, though 162 home runs were their fewest since 1992.
Hamilton had MVP-caliber season, though he missed 24 games in September because of two broken ribs. Cruz was limited to 108 regular-season games because of hamstring problems, but became only second major leaguer with five extra-inning homers. Three ended games, and his clutch hitting continued in playoffs. Kinsler batting .342 with three homers and team-high nine RBIs in postseason. Andrus has sparked offense, stealing seven bases in playoffs, and Molina hit .333 with two homers and seven RBIs.
Giants: San Francisco (92-70) won NL West on season's final day for first division title since 2003, then edged wild-card Braves in first round, with all four games decided by one run. Pitching-rich Giants upset two-time reigning NL champion Phillies in NLCS, clinching with Game 6 victory in Philadelphia for third one-run win of series. San Francisco was outscored 20-19 by Phillies.
San Francisco is back in World Series for first time since Barry Bonds and Co. came within six outs of title in Game 6 in 2002 against Angels, then lost Game 7 as well. Franchise hasn't won World Series since moving West - even with Hall of Famers such as Mays, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry. Ross, the August pickup off waivers from Florida, emerged as surprising postseason star and won NLCS MVP honors. He had three homers, three doubles and five RBIs against Phillies, going 7 for 20 in series.
Giants have plenty of quality arms in bullpen and most have delivered under postseason pressure. Wilson saved five games in playoffs and did not allow an earned run in nine innings. He closed out Ryan Howard and Phillies in Game 6, capping outstanding effort by entire 'pen. San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy had lost 10 of 11 postseason games before this run, all with San Diego. He finally got over hump in fourth year managing Giants after team stayed in wild-card race until mid-September in 2009. Giants made it this far in second full season of new managing partner Bill Neukom - the hands-on, bowtie-wearing, former Microsoft lawyer who replaced Peter Magowan.
Lincecum, who came in for quick relief stint in Game 6 of NLCS on one day of rest, has been solid in his first postseason. He split two hyped-up matchups with Phillies ace Roy Halladay. General Manager Brian Sabean boosted lineup with acquisitions all season, bringing in Burrell and Jose Guillen and giving them second chances. Guillen, left off postseason roster because of neck injury, has been noticeably absent during this run. Lefty-hitting infielder Mike Fontenot came over from Cubs and played in some key games in place of Freddy Sanchez. There were two new bullpen additions at the trade deadline, too: Ramirez and Lopez.
Posey was called up in late May and initially put at first base to get his bat in lineup. Went back to his regular position at catcher after Molina was traded to Texas, and blossomed into leading contender for NL Rookie of the Year. Lincecum lost five straight starts in August, then returned to top form. Bochy had reputation for sticking with veterans in the past, but he benched CF Aaron Rowand and his $12 million salary in favor of unproven Torres, who sparked offense with speed and extra-base pop. Torres had emergency appendectomy Sept. 12 and missed 11 games.
• WATCH FOR
-----------------
- Mr. Lee. For starters, it's Lee again. This is the second straight year he will pitch the World Series opener, this time for Texas after winning Games 1 and 5 for Philadelphia last year against the Yankees. The free agent-to-be could easily wind up pitching for someone else next season, too. October ace is at his best under pressure, going 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in eight postseason starts. He has 67 strikeouts and seven walks in 64 1-3 innings during those outings.
- Cody's Ride. Ross, who aspired to be a rodeo clown until switching to baseball at age 10, has been San Francisco's go-to guy in clutch situations. Can his tear at the plate continue? He's one of a handful of postseason first-timers on this roster, including Huff and Freddy Sanchez.
- Runnin' Rangers. Texas is 15 of 17 on stolen base attempts this postseason, and will run to get things going. Andrus even scored on a double steal in Game 2 of the ALCS, becoming the first player to steal home in the postseason since 2002. Hamilton had four stolen bases in the playoffs, and the Rangers should have no problem playing by NL rules - they led the AL with 53 sacrifice bunts.
- All The Right Moves. Bochy has used different combinations and substitution patterns to get the Giants this far. Whether it was starting Torres over Rowand in center field or sitting a struggling Sandoval in favor of playing Uribe at third and Renteria at shortstop, Bochy has displayed a perfect touch with this team.
• WEDNESDAY’S MOUND MATCHUP
--------------------------------------------
--Cliff Lee: There isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said about Cliff Lee and his incredible numbers. He heads into Game 1 with a 1.26 career postseason ERA and went 3-0 in the AL side of this year’s playoffs while striking out 34 batters and walking just one. He has also been just as dominant against the Giants, with a 1.13 ERA.
You’re really grasping at straws to find anything concerning about the lefty at this point, but he hasn’t pitched since Oct. 18th, which is a healthy layoff. However, there are a few Giants who hit Lee in the past. Jose Guillen is hitting .360 against him with two homers in 25 at bats and Juan Uribe has 11 hits and a pair of dingers in 37 previous matchups.
--Tim Lincecum: Lincecum doesn’t have the playoff experience that Cliff Lee has, but then again, experience has never been something he has needed to be successful. At 26 years old, he already has two Cy Young awards in his back pocket and made a big splash in his first playoff start by firing a complete-game 1-0 win over the Atlanta Braves while striking out 14 batters.
Heading into Game 1 of the World Series, he’s 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in four postseason appearances, the last of which being a stint out of the bullpen to help the Giants get past the Phillies in Game 6. Lincecum has never faced Texas before, but knowing his ace, Giants manger Bruce Bochy wasn’t concerned about that. He gave some consideration to starting Matt Cain in Game 1, but decided to try to get off on the right foot with the leader of the staff.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Francisco by 0.5; O/U 7.46
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Francisco -106
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Francisco -0.25
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• TOP RATED TEAM MONEY LINE TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--SAN FRANCISCO is 42-19 (+23.8 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 3*).
--SAN FRANCISCO is 58-35 (+21.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 3*).
--SAN FRANCISCO is 44-28 (+16.6 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*).
--SAN FRANCISCO is 61-46 (+14.1 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 44-32 (+13.3 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.5, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 67-48 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--TEXAS is 25-6 (+16.7 Units) against the money line on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.9, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*).
--TEXAS is 57-43 (+16.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 4.7, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).
--TEXAS is 53-39 (+15.3 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*).
--TEXAS is 75-48 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM RUN LINE TRENDS
-----------------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 41-69 against the run line (-21.9 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175 this season.
The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS is 40-18 against the run line (+21.8 Units) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better since 1997.
The average score was TEXAS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS is 11-24 against the run line (-17.1 Units) vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS is 7-22 against the run line (-16.6 Units) vs. good fielding teams - (turning 1.1 or more DP's/game) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 5.4, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS is 39-52 against the run line (-17.7 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 4.6, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS is 7-19 against the run line (-14.5 Units) with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 32-12 against the run line (+18.8 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better since 1997.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.8, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 40-21 against the run line (+20.4 Units) with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 55-33 against the run line (+22.7 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.5, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 43-24 against the run line (+18.3 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.5, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 51-32 against the run line (+17.0 Units) after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.6, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED STARTING PITCHERS MONEY LINE TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--CLIFF LEE is 71-49 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
The average score was LEE 5.5, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLIFF LEE is 13-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 6.9, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLIFF LEE is 7-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games when working on 7 or more days rest since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 7.9, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--CLIFF LEE is 16-23 (-16.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was LEE 4.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED STARTING PITCHER RUN LINE TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------------------
--CLIFF LEE is 26-14 (+15.1 Units) against the run line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LEE 5.4, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--CLIFF LEE is 29-16 (+15.2 Units) against the run line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LEE 4.8, OPPONENT 3 - (Rating = 1*)
--CLIFF LEE is 20-8 (+14.4 Units) against the run line in an inter-league game since 1997.
The average score was LEE 6.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--CLIFF LEE is 57-44 (+15.4 Units) against the run line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LEE 4.8, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED MONEY LINE SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TEXAS) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games against opponent with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games.
(32-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.6%, +28 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +131.2
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6, +18.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (71-70, +24.2 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(41-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +35.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +132.1
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 4.6 (Average run differential = +0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (9-3, +8.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-8, +27.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (74-54, +44.8 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
(82-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +42 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -105.3
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1)
The situation's record this season is: (22-13, +8.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (56-29, +25.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (148-106, +33.6 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
(133-68 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.2%, +70.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +104.4
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 4 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (40-26, +17.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (95-53, +47.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (262-215, +63.7 units).
• HIGHEST RATED RUN LINE SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams against a run line of (+1.5, -210) to (-1.5, -255) (TEXAS) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games against opponent with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games.
(55-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +32.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (49-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -125
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 4.4 (Average run differential = +0.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 49 (67.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1, +0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-11, +9.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (130-91, +17 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+130 to -255) (TEXAS) - hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 5 games, starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
(39-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +24 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (27-26 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -107
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 4.7 (Average run differential = -0.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (50.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-5, -0.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-9, +6.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (101-87, +4.3 units).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.
(104-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +52.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (86-57 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -132
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 4.3 (Average run differential = +0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 86 (60.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (23-8, +12.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (61-27, +24.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (232-175, +9.4 units).
• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings.
(82-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +40.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.4, Money Line=-114.4
The average score in these games was: Team 4, Opponent 3.6 (Total runs scored = 7.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 66 (60.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-6, +5.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (47-23, +20.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (172-136, +17.7 units).
__________________________________________________ _
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*** BOZZER TO MISS SEASON OPENER VS THUNDER ***
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The Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder were No. 8 seeds in last season’s playoffs, where neither proved to be a pushover against their respective conference’s top team. An offseason of building around All-Star Derrick Rose has the Bulls looking like a Central Division contender heading into Wednesday night’s opener in Oklahoma City, where the only significant change around scoring champion Kevin Durant is the Thunder’s soaring expectations.
Oklahoma City (50-32) made an impressive jump from its first season after moving from Seattle, increasing its win total from 23 and securing the franchise’s first playoff appearance since 2004-05. That coincided with Durant’s transition from young player on the rise to superstar. He averaged 30.1 points to win the scoring title, finished second behind LeBron James in the MVP voting and led his team to within a last-second tip-in of forcing a Game 7 against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round.
“I think we have confidence but we still know that last year is over with,” said Durant, who announced via Twitter that he signed a five-year, $86 million extension July 7. “We know that we had a good year, we made it to the playoffs, but this year we know that we’ve got to start back at square one. We’ve got to work hard every day to get better, continue to fight every day and work together as a team and continue to be one group.”
Durant was held to 25.0 points per game and 35.0 percent shooting against the Lakers, but had an offseason to envy. He led the United States to its first gold medal at the world championships since 1994, winning tournament MVP honors after averaging 22.8 points. Durant’s Thunder teammate Russell Westbrook averaged 9.1 points during the tournament, and looks poised to build on a season in which he averaged 16.1 points and 8.0 assists in starting all 82 games.
Westbrook and small forward Jeff Green give Durant some excellent secondary threats, while general manager Sam Presti’s quiet offseason saw him beef up his backcourt depth by adding Daequan Cook, Morris Peterson and Royal Ivey. The Thunder added Kansas center Cole Aldrich in a draft-day trade as well, but Coach of the Year Scott Brooks knows his team’s chances of making a leap in the Western Conference start and end with Durant. “He really thinks of himself as a guy that just has to work extremely hard to make a team,” Brooks said. “He has that mentality, and that’s what champions are made of.”
Joining Durant and Westbrook on the gold-medal team was Rose, who made a big leap last season by increasing his scoring average from 16.8 to 20.8. For the second straight season, though, the Bulls (41-41) finished with as many losses as wins. After giving Boston a huge scare in the first round of the 2009 playoffs, they were competitive but only managed to take one game from top-seeded Cleveland despite Rose averaging 26.8 points.
Getting rid of oft-criticized coach Vinny Del Negro and hiring Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau was only the beginning of a busy offseason. Chicago didn’t land James, Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh, but signed eight other free agents to overhaul the team around Rose and Joakim Noah, who signed an extension in early October. The biggest addition was power forward Carlos Boozer, and the Bulls weren’t done raiding Utah’s roster. Chicago also signed Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver before rounding out its roster with guards C.J. Watson and Keith Bogans, forwards Brian Scalabrine, Kurt Thomas and Turkish center Omer Asik.
Thibodeau should help as well. The assistant was coach Doc Rivers’ defensive guru in Boston, and having the disruptive Noah in the middle is a good place to start. Rose will be joined by Bogans in the starting backcourt with Luol Deng at small forward, but Boozer won’t be joining Noah in the frontcourt for a while. The two-time All-Star tripped over a bag and broke a bone in his right hand earlier this month, an injury that’s expected to keep him out until December.
Taj Gibson, who averaged 9.0 points and 7.5 rebounds as a rookie, will start in his place. “You hate to lose a guy like that, but it’s also part of the NBA,” Thibodeau said. “You have injuries, but we have good depth.” The teams split four meetings the past two seasons, with the road team winning each time. Rose averaged 25.5 points in the two victories at Oklahoma City.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City by 6; O/U 178
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma City -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oklahoma City -4.76
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• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-8 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 103.4, OPPONENT 97 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-6 OVER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 52.7, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-16 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 55.1, OPPONENT 50.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-10 OVER (+15 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 55.3, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 95.9, OPPONENT 91.8 - (Rating = 1*)
--CHICAGO is 35-19 against the 1rst half line (+14.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.6, OPPONENT 51.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS
-----------------------------------------
--SCOTT BROOKS is 89-64 (+18.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus the first half line in all games as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.
The average score was Brooks 51.4, OPPONENT 51.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
-------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good shooting team from last season - made >=45.5% of their shot attempts.
(89-48 over the last 5 seasons.) (65%, +36.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 49.9 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (63-27).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (142-104).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (CHICAGO) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games.
(90-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.7%, +36.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.5, Opponent 47.6 (Total first half points scored = 95.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (54-29).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (149-96).
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 10/27
2010 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW & NBA
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH -- MLB & NBA *****
*** 2010 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW ***
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The World Series gets underway Wednesday night in San Francisco with two unlikely franchises playing for baseball’s most coveted prize. The Giants haven’t won a World Series since 1954 and Texas is making it’s first-ever appearance in franchise's 50th season in the Fall Classic. The only pitching matchup set in stone is Game 1 that is scheduled to feature aces Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum.
• SCHEDULE
---------------------
(All times EDT) Game 1, Wednesday, at San Francisco (7:57 p.m.); Game 2, Thursday, at San Francisco (7:57 p.m.); Game 3, Saturday, at Arlington, Texas (6:57 p.m.); Game 4, Sunday, at Arlington, Texas (8:20 p.m.); x-Game 5, Monday, Nov. 1, at Arlington, Texas (6:57 p.m.); x-Game 6, Wednesday, Nov. 3, at San Francisco (7:57 p.m.); x-Game 7, Thursday, Nov. 4, at San Francisco (7:57 p.m.). (All games on FOX).
• PROJECTED LINEUPS
----------------------------
Rangers: SS Elvis Andrus (.265, 0 HRs, 35 RBIs, 88 runs, 32/47 SBs), 3B Michael Young (.284, 21, 91, 99 runs, career-high 115 strikeouts), CF Josh Hamilton (major league-leading .359, 32, 100), RF Vladimir Guerrero (.300, 29, 115), LF Nelson Cruz (.318, 22, 78 in 108 games), 2B Ian Kinsler (.286, 9, 45), C Bengie Molina (.240, 2, 19 in 57 games since acquired from San Francisco), 1B Mitch Moreland (.255, 9, 25 in 47 games since called up from Triple-A on July 29).
Giants: CF Andres Torres (.268, 16, 63, 26 SBs), 2B Freddy Sanchez (.292, 7, 47), 1B Aubrey Huff (.290, 26, 86), C Buster Posey (.305, 18, 67 after being called up from minors May 29), LF Pat Burrell (.266, 18, 51, signed to minor league deal May 29 after release by Tampa Bay and called up from Triple-A on June 4), RF Cody Ross (.269, 14, 65 with Florida and Giants), 3B Juan Uribe (.248, 24, 85), SS Edgar Renteria (.276, 3, 22 in 72 games).
• PROJECTED ROTATIONS
--------------------------------
Rangers: LH Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA, 7 CGs in 28 starts, 185 Ks, 18 walks, 212 1-3 innings; 4-6, 3.98 in 15 starts after acquired from Seattle on July 9), LH C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35, 3 CGs in 33 starts), RH Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 in career-high 201 innings), RH Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73).
Giants: RH Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43, 231 Ks), RH Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14, 177 Ks), LH Jonathan Sanchez (13-9, 3.07, 205 Ks, career-high 193 1-3 innings), LH Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00, 86 Ks in 18 starts as rookie).
• RELIEVERS
---------------
Rangers: RH Neftali Feliz (4-3, 2.37, MLB rookie-record 40 saves in 43 chances), RH Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03 in 72 games), RH Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30 in 44 games), LH Darren Oliver (1-2, 2.48 ERA in 64 games), LH Derek Holland (3-4, 4.08 in 14 games, 10 starts), LH Clay Rapada (0-0, 4.00 in 13 games after September call-up), LH Michael Kirkman (0-0, 1.65 in 14 games after Aug. 20 recall).
Giants: RH Brian Wilson (3-3, 1.81, major league-best 48/53 saves), RH Ramon Ramirez (1-0, 0.67, 1 save), LH Javier Lopez (4-2, 2.34), LH Jeremy Affeldt (4-3, 4.14, 4 saves), RH Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95, 2 saves), RH Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18).
• MATCHUPS
----------------
Rangers make it four times in six seasons that a team is playing in its first World Series. Previous three all lost in five games or fewer: Houston (2005), Colorado (2007) and Tampa Bay (2008). Giants haven't won World Series since upsetting Cleveland Indians, when Willie Mays and Co. played at Polo Grounds in New York. Club moved to San Francisco for 1958 season, three years before Rangers franchise began play as expansion Washington Senators. Team moved to Texas, with Ted Williams as manager, and changed name in 1972.
Giants lead all-time series against Texas 15-7 and have won last seven meetings (2001-09). Rangers have lost 11 in a row in San Francisco, where they are 2-12. Rangers and Giants both hit 162 home runs during regular season, averaging one per game. In playoffs, Texas had 17 in 11 games and Giants hit six in 10 games. Lee is 3-0 in three career starts against San Francisco while holding Giants to 159 batting average. He has 21 strikeouts and four walks in 24 innings, and threw complete game against them on July 31, 2009, his first start for Philadelphia after being traded from Cleveland.
Molina was Giants' starting catcher for 3 1/2 seasons until they traded him to Texas on July 1. That cleared the way in San Francisco for rookie Posey to be everyday catcher. Molina hit .276 with 58 home runs and 273 RBIs in 472 games for the Giants. Guerrero is .330 career hitter against Giants, with nine homers and 31 RBIs in 62 games. He was primarily DH this season, playing only 18 games in outfield. He's likely to move back to old spot in right during games in San Francisco, where NL rules prohibit DH. Bad knees from all those years on hard turf in Montreal have slowed him, and right field in San Francisco can be tricky, with some odd angles and long runs. Look for strong-armed Jeff Francoeur to play RF against left-handed starters back home in Texas.
Giants can use switch-hitter Pablo Sandoval at DH in Texas. His production dropped off dramatically this season, but "Kung Fu Panda" is still dangerous at plate. Oliver, 40, was a starter and the loser when Texas lost 8-3 to San Francisco on June 12, 1997, in baseball's first inter-league game. He allowed four runs and eight hits in 7 2-3 innings. Giants have home-field advantage in World Series because NL won All-Star game in July, first victory over AL since 1996.
• BIG PICTURE
------------------
Rangers: Texas (90-72) won its fourth AL West title and first since 1999, taking over first place for good June 8 and leading division for 154 days in all. Going into playoffs, Texas was only current major league franchise that hadn't won a playoff series. Rangers had never won a playoff game at home, either. Then they beat Tampa Bay, which had AL's best record during regular season, in five games in first round when road team won every game - a first in major league history.
Texas blew late lead at home to wild-card Yankees in ALCS opener but won Game 2 at Rangers Ballpark to snap 10-game postseason losing streak to New York. Rangers clinched first World Series berth with Game 6 victory at home before 51,404 frenzied fans under Friday night lights. Texas was eliminated from postseason by Yankees in previous three appearances - 1996, 1998 and '99.
After Hamilton went 2 for 18 with two singles in division series, he was ALCS MVP, hitting .350 (7 for 20) with four home runs, seven RBIs and eight walks (five intentional, three in Game 6). Cruz also hit .350 in ALCS, with three doubles and two homers. He hit three homers in first round. Guerrero's only three RBIs in ALCS came in Game 6, after not starting ALCS opener. Moreland went 7 for 18 (.389) with three RBIs while starting final five games.
Season began with team for sale, a drawn-out process that included bankruptcy before Hall of Fame pitcher and team president Nolan Ryan's group finally won auction in mid-August with bid valued at $590 million to buy club from Tom Hicks. There also was manager Ron Washington's admission in spring training that he used cocaine once during 2009 season. Washington offered to resign, but Ryan and general manager Jon Daniels stuck by him last year when it became public. Rangers have increased win total each year under Washington, who is in fourth season.
Despite financial constraints, Texas acquired Lee from Seattle when it looked as though he was headed to Yankees. Daniels also made midseason deals for Molina, Francoeur and Jorge Cantu. Daniels and Ryan have transformed team known for power hitting and poor pitching into athletic club with quality arms. Just look at how Rangers beat Rays and Yankees. Team ERA of 3.93 was clubs lowest since 3.83 mark in 1990. Rangers led majors with .276 batting average, though 162 home runs were their fewest since 1992.
Hamilton had MVP-caliber season, though he missed 24 games in September because of two broken ribs. Cruz was limited to 108 regular-season games because of hamstring problems, but became only second major leaguer with five extra-inning homers. Three ended games, and his clutch hitting continued in playoffs. Kinsler batting .342 with three homers and team-high nine RBIs in postseason. Andrus has sparked offense, stealing seven bases in playoffs, and Molina hit .333 with two homers and seven RBIs.
Giants: San Francisco (92-70) won NL West on season's final day for first division title since 2003, then edged wild-card Braves in first round, with all four games decided by one run. Pitching-rich Giants upset two-time reigning NL champion Phillies in NLCS, clinching with Game 6 victory in Philadelphia for third one-run win of series. San Francisco was outscored 20-19 by Phillies.
San Francisco is back in World Series for first time since Barry Bonds and Co. came within six outs of title in Game 6 in 2002 against Angels, then lost Game 7 as well. Franchise hasn't won World Series since moving West - even with Hall of Famers such as Mays, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry. Ross, the August pickup off waivers from Florida, emerged as surprising postseason star and won NLCS MVP honors. He had three homers, three doubles and five RBIs against Phillies, going 7 for 20 in series.
Giants have plenty of quality arms in bullpen and most have delivered under postseason pressure. Wilson saved five games in playoffs and did not allow an earned run in nine innings. He closed out Ryan Howard and Phillies in Game 6, capping outstanding effort by entire 'pen. San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy had lost 10 of 11 postseason games before this run, all with San Diego. He finally got over hump in fourth year managing Giants after team stayed in wild-card race until mid-September in 2009. Giants made it this far in second full season of new managing partner Bill Neukom - the hands-on, bowtie-wearing, former Microsoft lawyer who replaced Peter Magowan.
Lincecum, who came in for quick relief stint in Game 6 of NLCS on one day of rest, has been solid in his first postseason. He split two hyped-up matchups with Phillies ace Roy Halladay. General Manager Brian Sabean boosted lineup with acquisitions all season, bringing in Burrell and Jose Guillen and giving them second chances. Guillen, left off postseason roster because of neck injury, has been noticeably absent during this run. Lefty-hitting infielder Mike Fontenot came over from Cubs and played in some key games in place of Freddy Sanchez. There were two new bullpen additions at the trade deadline, too: Ramirez and Lopez.
Posey was called up in late May and initially put at first base to get his bat in lineup. Went back to his regular position at catcher after Molina was traded to Texas, and blossomed into leading contender for NL Rookie of the Year. Lincecum lost five straight starts in August, then returned to top form. Bochy had reputation for sticking with veterans in the past, but he benched CF Aaron Rowand and his $12 million salary in favor of unproven Torres, who sparked offense with speed and extra-base pop. Torres had emergency appendectomy Sept. 12 and missed 11 games.
• WATCH FOR
-----------------
- Mr. Lee. For starters, it's Lee again. This is the second straight year he will pitch the World Series opener, this time for Texas after winning Games 1 and 5 for Philadelphia last year against the Yankees. The free agent-to-be could easily wind up pitching for someone else next season, too. October ace is at his best under pressure, going 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in eight postseason starts. He has 67 strikeouts and seven walks in 64 1-3 innings during those outings.
- Cody's Ride. Ross, who aspired to be a rodeo clown until switching to baseball at age 10, has been San Francisco's go-to guy in clutch situations. Can his tear at the plate continue? He's one of a handful of postseason first-timers on this roster, including Huff and Freddy Sanchez.
- Runnin' Rangers. Texas is 15 of 17 on stolen base attempts this postseason, and will run to get things going. Andrus even scored on a double steal in Game 2 of the ALCS, becoming the first player to steal home in the postseason since 2002. Hamilton had four stolen bases in the playoffs, and the Rangers should have no problem playing by NL rules - they led the AL with 53 sacrifice bunts.
- All The Right Moves. Bochy has used different combinations and substitution patterns to get the Giants this far. Whether it was starting Torres over Rowand in center field or sitting a struggling Sandoval in favor of playing Uribe at third and Renteria at shortstop, Bochy has displayed a perfect touch with this team.
• WEDNESDAY’S MOUND MATCHUP
--------------------------------------------
--Cliff Lee: There isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said about Cliff Lee and his incredible numbers. He heads into Game 1 with a 1.26 career postseason ERA and went 3-0 in the AL side of this year’s playoffs while striking out 34 batters and walking just one. He has also been just as dominant against the Giants, with a 1.13 ERA.
You’re really grasping at straws to find anything concerning about the lefty at this point, but he hasn’t pitched since Oct. 18th, which is a healthy layoff. However, there are a few Giants who hit Lee in the past. Jose Guillen is hitting .360 against him with two homers in 25 at bats and Juan Uribe has 11 hits and a pair of dingers in 37 previous matchups.
--Tim Lincecum: Lincecum doesn’t have the playoff experience that Cliff Lee has, but then again, experience has never been something he has needed to be successful. At 26 years old, he already has two Cy Young awards in his back pocket and made a big splash in his first playoff start by firing a complete-game 1-0 win over the Atlanta Braves while striking out 14 batters.
Heading into Game 1 of the World Series, he’s 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in four postseason appearances, the last of which being a stint out of the bullpen to help the Giants get past the Phillies in Game 6. Lincecum has never faced Texas before, but knowing his ace, Giants manger Bruce Bochy wasn’t concerned about that. He gave some consideration to starting Matt Cain in Game 1, but decided to try to get off on the right foot with the leader of the staff.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Francisco by 0.5; O/U 7.46
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Francisco -106
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Francisco -0.25
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• TOP RATED TEAM MONEY LINE TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--SAN FRANCISCO is 42-19 (+23.8 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 3*).
--SAN FRANCISCO is 58-35 (+21.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 3*).
--SAN FRANCISCO is 44-28 (+16.6 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*).
--SAN FRANCISCO is 61-46 (+14.1 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 44-32 (+13.3 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.5, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 67-48 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--TEXAS is 25-6 (+16.7 Units) against the money line on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.9, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*).
--TEXAS is 57-43 (+16.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 4.7, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).
--TEXAS is 53-39 (+15.3 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*).
--TEXAS is 75-48 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM RUN LINE TRENDS
-----------------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 41-69 against the run line (-21.9 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175 this season.
The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS is 40-18 against the run line (+21.8 Units) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better since 1997.
The average score was TEXAS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS is 11-24 against the run line (-17.1 Units) vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS is 7-22 against the run line (-16.6 Units) vs. good fielding teams - (turning 1.1 or more DP's/game) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 5.4, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS is 39-52 against the run line (-17.7 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 4.6, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS is 7-19 against the run line (-14.5 Units) with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 32-12 against the run line (+18.8 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better since 1997.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.8, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 40-21 against the run line (+20.4 Units) with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 55-33 against the run line (+22.7 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.5, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 43-24 against the run line (+18.3 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.5, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 51-32 against the run line (+17.0 Units) after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.6, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED STARTING PITCHERS MONEY LINE TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--CLIFF LEE is 71-49 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
The average score was LEE 5.5, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLIFF LEE is 13-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 6.9, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLIFF LEE is 7-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games when working on 7 or more days rest since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 7.9, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--CLIFF LEE is 16-23 (-16.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was LEE 4.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED STARTING PITCHER RUN LINE TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------------------
--CLIFF LEE is 26-14 (+15.1 Units) against the run line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LEE 5.4, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--CLIFF LEE is 29-16 (+15.2 Units) against the run line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LEE 4.8, OPPONENT 3 - (Rating = 1*)
--CLIFF LEE is 20-8 (+14.4 Units) against the run line in an inter-league game since 1997.
The average score was LEE 6.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--CLIFF LEE is 57-44 (+15.4 Units) against the run line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LEE 4.8, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED MONEY LINE SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TEXAS) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games against opponent with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games.
(32-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.6%, +28 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +131.2
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6, +18.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (71-70, +24.2 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(41-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +35.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +132.1
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 4.6 (Average run differential = +0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (9-3, +8.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-8, +27.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (74-54, +44.8 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
(82-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +42 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -105.3
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1)
The situation's record this season is: (22-13, +8.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (56-29, +25.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (148-106, +33.6 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
(133-68 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.2%, +70.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +104.4
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 4 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (40-26, +17.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (95-53, +47.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (262-215, +63.7 units).
• HIGHEST RATED RUN LINE SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams against a run line of (+1.5, -210) to (-1.5, -255) (TEXAS) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games against opponent with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games.
(55-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +32.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (49-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -125
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 4.4 (Average run differential = +0.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 49 (67.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1, +0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-11, +9.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (130-91, +17 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+130 to -255) (TEXAS) - hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 5 games, starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
(39-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +24 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (27-26 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -107
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 4.7 (Average run differential = -0.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (50.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-5, -0.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-9, +6.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (101-87, +4.3 units).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.
(104-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +52.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (86-57 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -132
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 4.3 (Average run differential = +0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 86 (60.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (23-8, +12.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (61-27, +24.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (232-175, +9.4 units).
• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings.
(82-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +40.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.4, Money Line=-114.4
The average score in these games was: Team 4, Opponent 3.6 (Total runs scored = 7.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 66 (60.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-6, +5.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (47-23, +20.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (172-136, +17.7 units).
__________________________________________________ _
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__________________________________________
*** BOZZER TO MISS SEASON OPENER VS THUNDER ***
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The Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder were No. 8 seeds in last season’s playoffs, where neither proved to be a pushover against their respective conference’s top team. An offseason of building around All-Star Derrick Rose has the Bulls looking like a Central Division contender heading into Wednesday night’s opener in Oklahoma City, where the only significant change around scoring champion Kevin Durant is the Thunder’s soaring expectations.
Oklahoma City (50-32) made an impressive jump from its first season after moving from Seattle, increasing its win total from 23 and securing the franchise’s first playoff appearance since 2004-05. That coincided with Durant’s transition from young player on the rise to superstar. He averaged 30.1 points to win the scoring title, finished second behind LeBron James in the MVP voting and led his team to within a last-second tip-in of forcing a Game 7 against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round.
“I think we have confidence but we still know that last year is over with,” said Durant, who announced via Twitter that he signed a five-year, $86 million extension July 7. “We know that we had a good year, we made it to the playoffs, but this year we know that we’ve got to start back at square one. We’ve got to work hard every day to get better, continue to fight every day and work together as a team and continue to be one group.”
Durant was held to 25.0 points per game and 35.0 percent shooting against the Lakers, but had an offseason to envy. He led the United States to its first gold medal at the world championships since 1994, winning tournament MVP honors after averaging 22.8 points. Durant’s Thunder teammate Russell Westbrook averaged 9.1 points during the tournament, and looks poised to build on a season in which he averaged 16.1 points and 8.0 assists in starting all 82 games.
Westbrook and small forward Jeff Green give Durant some excellent secondary threats, while general manager Sam Presti’s quiet offseason saw him beef up his backcourt depth by adding Daequan Cook, Morris Peterson and Royal Ivey. The Thunder added Kansas center Cole Aldrich in a draft-day trade as well, but Coach of the Year Scott Brooks knows his team’s chances of making a leap in the Western Conference start and end with Durant. “He really thinks of himself as a guy that just has to work extremely hard to make a team,” Brooks said. “He has that mentality, and that’s what champions are made of.”
Joining Durant and Westbrook on the gold-medal team was Rose, who made a big leap last season by increasing his scoring average from 16.8 to 20.8. For the second straight season, though, the Bulls (41-41) finished with as many losses as wins. After giving Boston a huge scare in the first round of the 2009 playoffs, they were competitive but only managed to take one game from top-seeded Cleveland despite Rose averaging 26.8 points.
Getting rid of oft-criticized coach Vinny Del Negro and hiring Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau was only the beginning of a busy offseason. Chicago didn’t land James, Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh, but signed eight other free agents to overhaul the team around Rose and Joakim Noah, who signed an extension in early October. The biggest addition was power forward Carlos Boozer, and the Bulls weren’t done raiding Utah’s roster. Chicago also signed Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver before rounding out its roster with guards C.J. Watson and Keith Bogans, forwards Brian Scalabrine, Kurt Thomas and Turkish center Omer Asik.
Thibodeau should help as well. The assistant was coach Doc Rivers’ defensive guru in Boston, and having the disruptive Noah in the middle is a good place to start. Rose will be joined by Bogans in the starting backcourt with Luol Deng at small forward, but Boozer won’t be joining Noah in the frontcourt for a while. The two-time All-Star tripped over a bag and broke a bone in his right hand earlier this month, an injury that’s expected to keep him out until December.
Taj Gibson, who averaged 9.0 points and 7.5 rebounds as a rookie, will start in his place. “You hate to lose a guy like that, but it’s also part of the NBA,” Thibodeau said. “You have injuries, but we have good depth.” The teams split four meetings the past two seasons, with the road team winning each time. Rose averaged 25.5 points in the two victories at Oklahoma City.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City by 6; O/U 178
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma City -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oklahoma City -4.76
______________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-8 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 103.4, OPPONENT 97 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-6 OVER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 52.7, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-16 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 55.1, OPPONENT 50.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-10 OVER (+15 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 55.3, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 95.9, OPPONENT 91.8 - (Rating = 1*)
--CHICAGO is 35-19 against the 1rst half line (+14.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.6, OPPONENT 51.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS
-----------------------------------------
--SCOTT BROOKS is 89-64 (+18.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus the first half line in all games as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.
The average score was Brooks 51.4, OPPONENT 51.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
-------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good shooting team from last season - made >=45.5% of their shot attempts.
(89-48 over the last 5 seasons.) (65%, +36.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 49.9 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (63-27).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (142-104).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (CHICAGO) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games.
(90-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.7%, +36.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.5, Opponent 47.6 (Total first half points scored = 95.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (54-29).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (149-96).
STATSYSTEMS REPORT 10/27 cont.
*** BOBCATS LOOK FOR FIRST-EVER WIN OVER THE MAVERICKS ***
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Despite posting at least 50 wins in each of the last 10 seasons, the Dallas Mavericks are still trying to secure the franchise’s first NBA title. A second straight postseason appearance would be an accomplishment for the Michael Jordan-led Charlotte Bobcats in 2010-11. Looking to put another playoff disappointment behind them, Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks open their regular season Wednesday at American Airlines Center, where the Bobcats try again for their first-ever win over Dallas.
After finishing 55-27 last season and winning their first Southwest Division title since 2006-07, the second-seeded Mavericks fell in six games to San Antonio in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs. Since losing to Miami in the 2006 finals, Dallas has been eliminated in the first round three times.
Last season’s exit was followed by a vague comment from outspoken owner Mark Cuban. “I’m not proud of the NBA. I’m not proud of my inability over the last 10 years to have an impact like I want to have,” Cuban said. “So I kind of feel like I owe fans an apology. But that’s just the way this business goes.”
While the potential loss of Nowitzki, who became an unrestricted free agent for the first time, could have sent the franchise into a tailspin, the 32-year-old German signed a four-year, $80 million deal with Dallas in July. “It wouldn’t have felt right to put another uniform on,” Nowitzki said. “The fans, everybody here have been so loyal to me the last 12 years; it would have felt like running away a little bit, in a way. So I’m here for the long run - four more years to reach our goal. I’m ready.”
Despite the Bobcats playing in the Southeast Division with revamped Miami and Orlando, Jordan is expecting his team to be ready as it tries to build off the franchise’s first playoff appearance, which ended with a first-round sweep by the Magic. “We’ll be OK,” said Jordan, who became the first ex-player to buy a team when he made a deadline deal with Bob Johnson on Feb. 26. “Obviously, we don’t have the marquee three All-Stars, but we’ve got a good young nucleus with something to build upon.”
After nearly walking away in the offseason, 70-year-old coach Larry Brown enters his third year on the Bobcats’ bench. Jordan expects Brown to stick around this season and beyond since “he’s got too much coaching in him,” and both are hoping for an improvement on last year’s 44-38 record. The salary cap-strapped Bobcats, though, suffered a major loss when they couldn’t re-sign point guard Raymond Felton in the offseason. In his third season, D.J. Augustin will take over the starting job.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, didn’t get a chance to see their point guard of the future during training camp. Rodrigue Beaubois, who became the first rookie to shoot at least 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3-point range and 80 percent from the foul line last season, suffered a broken left foot in August and has been in a walking boot for two months. “I think our future is in Roddy’s hands,” Nowitzki said of the 22-year-old Guadeloupe native. “I think he brings that kind of level to our game.”
While Coach Rick Carlisle will likely start Jason Terry next to Jason Kidd in the Mavericks’ backcourt until Beaubois returns, Dallas’ frontcourt has a new look with the addition of Tyson Chandler. Acquired in the offseason in a deal that sent Erick Dampier and Eduardo Najera to Charlotte, the 28-year-old center could be a nice fit alongside Nowitzki and Brendan Haywood, who signed a six-year extension in July.
The Bobcats, who waived Dampier and his $13 million non-guaranteed contract, still have a dynamic frontcourt with Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace and Boris Diaw. Charlotte also brings back forward Tyrus Thomas, who signed a five-year, $40 million deal after arriving via trade from Chicago on Feb. 18. Jackson, who averaged a team-high 21.1 points last season, strained a tendon in his left ankle during practice Tuesday, but expects to play. “It’s getting better now, nothing serious,” Jackson said. “I’ll be ready to go.”
The Mavs are the only team Charlotte has never beaten, winning all 12 previous meetings. In the Bobcats’ last visit to Dallas on Dec. 12, Nowitzki hit a 10-foot jumper with 1.8 seconds left in overtime for a 98-97 victory, a defeat Brown called “one of the most disappointing losses we’ve had.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 6; O/U 191
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -5.43
_______________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--DALLAS is 68-36 (+30.7 Units) against the money line in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 96.3, OPPONENT 91.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 17-27 (-12.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 50, OPPONENT 48.6 - (Rating = 1*)
--CHARLOTTE is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 89.0, OPPONENT 97.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS
-----------------------------------------
--RICK CARLISLE is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games in non-conference games as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was Carlisle 100.5, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--RICK CARLISLE is 10-26 (-18.6 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Carlisle 45.8, OPPONENT 45.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--RICK CARLISLE is 41-17 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in non-conference games as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was Carlisle 100.8, OPPONENT 98.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--RICK CARLISLE is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Carlisle 95.2, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--RICK CARLISLE is 26-11 UNDER (+13.9 Units) in home games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Carlisle 95.2, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
-------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (CHARLOTTE) - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses.
(47-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.5, Opponent 49 (Average first half point differential = -1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (87-55).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) - good shooting team from last season - made >=45.5% of their shot attempts.
(124-74 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.6%, +42.6 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.8, Opponent 49.6 (Average first half point differential = -0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (92-46).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (208-169).
• MOST PROFITABLE SITUATIONS BASED ON UNITS WON
----------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of >=45.5%.
(606-454 since 1996.) (57.2%, +106.6 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.5, Opponent 49.2 (Total first half points scored = 96.7)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (242-202).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (353-283).
____________________________________________
*** KARL'S RETURN IS LIKELY TO BE AN EMOTIONAL ONE ***
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This could be Carmelo Anthony’s final season opener with the Denver Nuggets. If it is, he couldn’t be happier it’s coming against the Utah Jazz. While Anthony’s decision not to sign an extension with Denver may not make him the most popular person at the Pepsi Center on Wednesday night, he’ll try to make sure coach George Karl’s return to the bench is a successful one when the Nuggets host the Jazz.
Denver failed to get Anthony to sign a $65 million extension that’s been on the table since June, so the team began looking for potential trade suitors for the third overall pick in 2003. The Nuggets were close to sending him to New Jersey last month, but that deal fell through when Denver’s new front office wanted a better package in return. The New York Knicks are considered the current frontrunners.
For now, Anthony said he’s not distracted by all the trade talks and is looking forward to taking on the Jazz. Both teams finished 55-27 last season and tied atop the Northwest Division, and while the Nuggets won the division via tiebreaker, the Jazz won the first-round playoff series in six games. This is the second straight year the teams have opened the season against each other. Anthony scored 30 points last October when the Nuggets won 114-105 at the Pepsi Center.
While Denver is likely to try and trade Anthony before he leaves as a free agent to get some compensation for him, Karl remains steadfast in trying to convince Anthony to stick around and pursue an eighth straight playoff berth. “My job any time I talk to Melo or talk to his people is to try to convince him that we won (55) games last year and we’re very capable of being a lot better than we were last year,” Karl said.
While Anthony said he isn’t sure about the reception he’ll get from fans, Karl’s return to the bench is likely to be an emotional one. He missed the last two months of last season after being diagnosed with throat and neck cancer— his second bout with cancer—just before coaching the West squad in the All-Star game. The Nuggets were 42-21 under Karl, but 13-12 under assistant Adrian Dantley, who also coached them in the first-round series loss.
Karl said the only concession he expects to make is not flying with the team right on nights when the Nuggets play back-to-back home and away, which only occurs a couple of times. “I’ve been scared now a couple of times. And I think my love for the game of basketball, I’d go crazy if I didn’t do it,” Karl said. “If the doctors, said, ‘Hey, man, I think you should stop.’ I would. But right now that hasn’t even come up.”
Besides the Anthony drama, Karl has other personnel problems to worry about. Kenyon Martin and Chris “Birdman” Andersen are recovering from offseason knee surgeries and are expected to be sidelined until January. One of the few additions the Nuggets made during the offseason was Al Harrington, who is expected to provide the inside presence the Nuggets need with Martin and Anderson out. The 30-year-old averaged 17.7 points and 5.6 rebounds with the Knicks last season.
The Jazz experienced what it’s like to lose a key member of a franchise after Carlos Boozer left via free agency this summer. The departures of Boozer and reserve Kyle Korver - both of whom signed with Chicago - as well as Wesley Matthews had guard Deron Williams voice his opinion that the front office wasn’t doing enough to put together a competitive team. However, Utah’s offseason moves would eventually satisfy Williams. While Boozer’s 19.5 points and 11.2 rebounds per game will be missed, the Jazz traded for Al Jefferson, who finished with 17.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game in 2009-10.
Utah also signed free agent Raja Bell, who was limited to six games last season after undergoing wrist surgery to repair a torn ligament, and Earl Watson for backcourt depth. “The moves they made this year I think made our team better after we lost some guys,” Williams said.
Jefferson will have the difficult task of replacing Boozer. He spent the last three seasons with Minnesota and failed to average a double-double last season for the first time in four years. “I like to be in the paint. That’s where we get nasty,” Jefferson said. After playing for a team that won a combined 61 games the last three seasons, Jefferson joins one that was swept by the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference semifinals.
The Jazz also have injury issues to start the season. Mehmet Okur remains sidelined after tearing his Achilles’ tendon during the playoffs against Denver. The Nuggets won three of four games between the teams in the 2009-10 regular season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by 3.5; O/U 210
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -4.32
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--DENVER is 64-17 (+30.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 109.2, OPPONENT 101 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 19-7 OVER (+11.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 112.9, OPPONENT 103.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--UTAH is 97-37 UNDER (+56.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 2 to 3 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 43.4, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 195-80 UNDER (+107 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 43, OPPONENT 47.2 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 18-4 OVER (+13.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 108.4, OPPONENT 106.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 9-22 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 101.4, OPPONENT 106.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 35-17 OVER (+16.3 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 99.8, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS
-----------------------------------------
--GEORGE KARL is 115-67 OVER (+41.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was Karl 109.1, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 5*)
--GEORGE KARL is 104-77 ATS (+19.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was Karl 109.1, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--GEORGE KARL is 58-36 OVER (+18.4 Units) vs. division opponents as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was Karl 107.4, OPPONENT 103 - (Rating = 2*)
--GEORGE KARL is 48-29 OVER (+16.1 Units) in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was Karl 108.9, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 730-464 UNDER (+219.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 47.4, OPPONENT 46.2 - (Rating = 6*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 257-106 UNDER (+140.4 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 43.7, OPPONENT 46.8 - (Rating = 5*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 420-176 UNDER (+226.4 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 44.8, OPPONENT 46.2 - (Rating = 5*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 97-37 UNDER (+56.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 2 to 3 points vs. the 1rst half line as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 43.4, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 91-50 UNDER (+36 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total >= 100.5 as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 49.2, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 180-118 UNDER (+50.2 Units) the 1rst half total vs. division opponents as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 47.4, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 37-49 (-26.9 Units) against the money line in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 101.6, OPPONENT 104.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
-------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (UTAH) - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses.
(47-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.5, Opponent 49 (Average first half point differential = -1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (87-55).
• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
---------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.
(56-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +25.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207.6
The average score in these games was: Team 104.7, Opponent 104.6 (Total points scored = 209.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 39 (46.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-20).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (74-49).
*** BOBCATS LOOK FOR FIRST-EVER WIN OVER THE MAVERICKS ***
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Despite posting at least 50 wins in each of the last 10 seasons, the Dallas Mavericks are still trying to secure the franchise’s first NBA title. A second straight postseason appearance would be an accomplishment for the Michael Jordan-led Charlotte Bobcats in 2010-11. Looking to put another playoff disappointment behind them, Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks open their regular season Wednesday at American Airlines Center, where the Bobcats try again for their first-ever win over Dallas.
After finishing 55-27 last season and winning their first Southwest Division title since 2006-07, the second-seeded Mavericks fell in six games to San Antonio in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs. Since losing to Miami in the 2006 finals, Dallas has been eliminated in the first round three times.
Last season’s exit was followed by a vague comment from outspoken owner Mark Cuban. “I’m not proud of the NBA. I’m not proud of my inability over the last 10 years to have an impact like I want to have,” Cuban said. “So I kind of feel like I owe fans an apology. But that’s just the way this business goes.”
While the potential loss of Nowitzki, who became an unrestricted free agent for the first time, could have sent the franchise into a tailspin, the 32-year-old German signed a four-year, $80 million deal with Dallas in July. “It wouldn’t have felt right to put another uniform on,” Nowitzki said. “The fans, everybody here have been so loyal to me the last 12 years; it would have felt like running away a little bit, in a way. So I’m here for the long run - four more years to reach our goal. I’m ready.”
Despite the Bobcats playing in the Southeast Division with revamped Miami and Orlando, Jordan is expecting his team to be ready as it tries to build off the franchise’s first playoff appearance, which ended with a first-round sweep by the Magic. “We’ll be OK,” said Jordan, who became the first ex-player to buy a team when he made a deadline deal with Bob Johnson on Feb. 26. “Obviously, we don’t have the marquee three All-Stars, but we’ve got a good young nucleus with something to build upon.”
After nearly walking away in the offseason, 70-year-old coach Larry Brown enters his third year on the Bobcats’ bench. Jordan expects Brown to stick around this season and beyond since “he’s got too much coaching in him,” and both are hoping for an improvement on last year’s 44-38 record. The salary cap-strapped Bobcats, though, suffered a major loss when they couldn’t re-sign point guard Raymond Felton in the offseason. In his third season, D.J. Augustin will take over the starting job.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, didn’t get a chance to see their point guard of the future during training camp. Rodrigue Beaubois, who became the first rookie to shoot at least 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3-point range and 80 percent from the foul line last season, suffered a broken left foot in August and has been in a walking boot for two months. “I think our future is in Roddy’s hands,” Nowitzki said of the 22-year-old Guadeloupe native. “I think he brings that kind of level to our game.”
While Coach Rick Carlisle will likely start Jason Terry next to Jason Kidd in the Mavericks’ backcourt until Beaubois returns, Dallas’ frontcourt has a new look with the addition of Tyson Chandler. Acquired in the offseason in a deal that sent Erick Dampier and Eduardo Najera to Charlotte, the 28-year-old center could be a nice fit alongside Nowitzki and Brendan Haywood, who signed a six-year extension in July.
The Bobcats, who waived Dampier and his $13 million non-guaranteed contract, still have a dynamic frontcourt with Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace and Boris Diaw. Charlotte also brings back forward Tyrus Thomas, who signed a five-year, $40 million deal after arriving via trade from Chicago on Feb. 18. Jackson, who averaged a team-high 21.1 points last season, strained a tendon in his left ankle during practice Tuesday, but expects to play. “It’s getting better now, nothing serious,” Jackson said. “I’ll be ready to go.”
The Mavs are the only team Charlotte has never beaten, winning all 12 previous meetings. In the Bobcats’ last visit to Dallas on Dec. 12, Nowitzki hit a 10-foot jumper with 1.8 seconds left in overtime for a 98-97 victory, a defeat Brown called “one of the most disappointing losses we’ve had.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 6; O/U 191
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -5.43
_______________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--DALLAS is 68-36 (+30.7 Units) against the money line in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 96.3, OPPONENT 91.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 17-27 (-12.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 50, OPPONENT 48.6 - (Rating = 1*)
--CHARLOTTE is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 89.0, OPPONENT 97.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS
-----------------------------------------
--RICK CARLISLE is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games in non-conference games as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was Carlisle 100.5, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--RICK CARLISLE is 10-26 (-18.6 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Carlisle 45.8, OPPONENT 45.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--RICK CARLISLE is 41-17 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in non-conference games as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was Carlisle 100.8, OPPONENT 98.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--RICK CARLISLE is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Carlisle 95.2, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--RICK CARLISLE is 26-11 UNDER (+13.9 Units) in home games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was Carlisle 95.2, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
-------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (CHARLOTTE) - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses.
(47-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.5, Opponent 49 (Average first half point differential = -1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (87-55).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) - good shooting team from last season - made >=45.5% of their shot attempts.
(124-74 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.6%, +42.6 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.8, Opponent 49.6 (Average first half point differential = -0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (92-46).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (208-169).
• MOST PROFITABLE SITUATIONS BASED ON UNITS WON
----------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of >=45.5%.
(606-454 since 1996.) (57.2%, +106.6 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.5, Opponent 49.2 (Total first half points scored = 96.7)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (242-202).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (353-283).
____________________________________________
*** KARL'S RETURN IS LIKELY TO BE AN EMOTIONAL ONE ***
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This could be Carmelo Anthony’s final season opener with the Denver Nuggets. If it is, he couldn’t be happier it’s coming against the Utah Jazz. While Anthony’s decision not to sign an extension with Denver may not make him the most popular person at the Pepsi Center on Wednesday night, he’ll try to make sure coach George Karl’s return to the bench is a successful one when the Nuggets host the Jazz.
Denver failed to get Anthony to sign a $65 million extension that’s been on the table since June, so the team began looking for potential trade suitors for the third overall pick in 2003. The Nuggets were close to sending him to New Jersey last month, but that deal fell through when Denver’s new front office wanted a better package in return. The New York Knicks are considered the current frontrunners.
For now, Anthony said he’s not distracted by all the trade talks and is looking forward to taking on the Jazz. Both teams finished 55-27 last season and tied atop the Northwest Division, and while the Nuggets won the division via tiebreaker, the Jazz won the first-round playoff series in six games. This is the second straight year the teams have opened the season against each other. Anthony scored 30 points last October when the Nuggets won 114-105 at the Pepsi Center.
While Denver is likely to try and trade Anthony before he leaves as a free agent to get some compensation for him, Karl remains steadfast in trying to convince Anthony to stick around and pursue an eighth straight playoff berth. “My job any time I talk to Melo or talk to his people is to try to convince him that we won (55) games last year and we’re very capable of being a lot better than we were last year,” Karl said.
While Anthony said he isn’t sure about the reception he’ll get from fans, Karl’s return to the bench is likely to be an emotional one. He missed the last two months of last season after being diagnosed with throat and neck cancer— his second bout with cancer—just before coaching the West squad in the All-Star game. The Nuggets were 42-21 under Karl, but 13-12 under assistant Adrian Dantley, who also coached them in the first-round series loss.
Karl said the only concession he expects to make is not flying with the team right on nights when the Nuggets play back-to-back home and away, which only occurs a couple of times. “I’ve been scared now a couple of times. And I think my love for the game of basketball, I’d go crazy if I didn’t do it,” Karl said. “If the doctors, said, ‘Hey, man, I think you should stop.’ I would. But right now that hasn’t even come up.”
Besides the Anthony drama, Karl has other personnel problems to worry about. Kenyon Martin and Chris “Birdman” Andersen are recovering from offseason knee surgeries and are expected to be sidelined until January. One of the few additions the Nuggets made during the offseason was Al Harrington, who is expected to provide the inside presence the Nuggets need with Martin and Anderson out. The 30-year-old averaged 17.7 points and 5.6 rebounds with the Knicks last season.
The Jazz experienced what it’s like to lose a key member of a franchise after Carlos Boozer left via free agency this summer. The departures of Boozer and reserve Kyle Korver - both of whom signed with Chicago - as well as Wesley Matthews had guard Deron Williams voice his opinion that the front office wasn’t doing enough to put together a competitive team. However, Utah’s offseason moves would eventually satisfy Williams. While Boozer’s 19.5 points and 11.2 rebounds per game will be missed, the Jazz traded for Al Jefferson, who finished with 17.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game in 2009-10.
Utah also signed free agent Raja Bell, who was limited to six games last season after undergoing wrist surgery to repair a torn ligament, and Earl Watson for backcourt depth. “The moves they made this year I think made our team better after we lost some guys,” Williams said.
Jefferson will have the difficult task of replacing Boozer. He spent the last three seasons with Minnesota and failed to average a double-double last season for the first time in four years. “I like to be in the paint. That’s where we get nasty,” Jefferson said. After playing for a team that won a combined 61 games the last three seasons, Jefferson joins one that was swept by the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference semifinals.
The Jazz also have injury issues to start the season. Mehmet Okur remains sidelined after tearing his Achilles’ tendon during the playoffs against Denver. The Nuggets won three of four games between the teams in the 2009-10 regular season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by 3.5; O/U 210
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -4.32
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
----------------------------------
--DENVER is 64-17 (+30.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 109.2, OPPONENT 101 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 19-7 OVER (+11.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 112.9, OPPONENT 103.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--UTAH is 97-37 UNDER (+56.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 2 to 3 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 43.4, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 195-80 UNDER (+107 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 43, OPPONENT 47.2 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 18-4 OVER (+13.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 108.4, OPPONENT 106.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 9-22 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 101.4, OPPONENT 106.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 35-17 OVER (+16.3 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 99.8, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS
-----------------------------------------
--GEORGE KARL is 115-67 OVER (+41.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was Karl 109.1, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 5*)
--GEORGE KARL is 104-77 ATS (+19.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was Karl 109.1, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--GEORGE KARL is 58-36 OVER (+18.4 Units) vs. division opponents as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was Karl 107.4, OPPONENT 103 - (Rating = 2*)
--GEORGE KARL is 48-29 OVER (+16.1 Units) in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was Karl 108.9, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 730-464 UNDER (+219.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 47.4, OPPONENT 46.2 - (Rating = 6*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 257-106 UNDER (+140.4 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 43.7, OPPONENT 46.8 - (Rating = 5*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 420-176 UNDER (+226.4 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 44.8, OPPONENT 46.2 - (Rating = 5*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 97-37 UNDER (+56.3 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 2 to 3 points vs. the 1rst half line as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 43.4, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 91-50 UNDER (+36 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total >= 100.5 as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 49.2, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 180-118 UNDER (+50.2 Units) the 1rst half total vs. division opponents as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 47.4, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--JERRY SLOAN is 37-49 (-26.9 Units) against the money line in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 101.6, OPPONENT 104.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
-------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (UTAH) - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses.
(47-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.5, Opponent 49 (Average first half point differential = -1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (87-55).
• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
---------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.
(56-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +25.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207.6
The average score in these games was: Team 104.7, Opponent 104.6 (Total points scored = 209.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 39 (46.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-20).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (74-49).
GINA
Wednesday, October 27, 2010,
World Series - Game 1
Texas Rangers (97-76) at San Francisco Giants (99-73)
AT&T Park, San Francisco, California
(L) Cliff Lee (0-0) vs. (R) Tim Lincecum (0-0)
Texas and San Francisco meet for the first time in postseason, but the Giants lead the all-time series against Texas 15-7. San Francisco has won 11 of the last 12 meetings, and 11 in a row at AT&T Park.
Texas will send their ace Cliff Lee to the hill. The lefthander has been outstanding in the postseason, 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in eight career playoff starts. San Francisco counters with their ace Tim Lincecum. The right-hander has never pitched against Texas, but went 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in three postseason starts this year.
This will be a great game with Rangers’ Cliff Lee going up against San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum, but I will put my money on reliable Lee and the Rangers bats. Cliff Lee is 3-0 with 1.13 ERA In three career starts against San Francisco and two of those games were at AT&T Park .
Texas Rangers -125
World Series Predictions:
Texas Rangers in 6 Series
Indiana Pacers (0-0) at San Antonio Spurs (0-0)
The Pacers have lost the last eight battles in San Antonio, but usually play the Spurs tough. Take the points! Indiana is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Indiana Pacers +9
Wednesday, October 27, 2010,
World Series - Game 1
Texas Rangers (97-76) at San Francisco Giants (99-73)
AT&T Park, San Francisco, California
(L) Cliff Lee (0-0) vs. (R) Tim Lincecum (0-0)
Texas and San Francisco meet for the first time in postseason, but the Giants lead the all-time series against Texas 15-7. San Francisco has won 11 of the last 12 meetings, and 11 in a row at AT&T Park.
Texas will send their ace Cliff Lee to the hill. The lefthander has been outstanding in the postseason, 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in eight career playoff starts. San Francisco counters with their ace Tim Lincecum. The right-hander has never pitched against Texas, but went 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in three postseason starts this year.
This will be a great game with Rangers’ Cliff Lee going up against San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum, but I will put my money on reliable Lee and the Rangers bats. Cliff Lee is 3-0 with 1.13 ERA In three career starts against San Francisco and two of those games were at AT&T Park .
Texas Rangers -125
World Series Predictions:
Texas Rangers in 6 Series
Indiana Pacers (0-0) at San Antonio Spurs (0-0)
The Pacers have lost the last eight battles in San Antonio, but usually play the Spurs tough. Take the points! Indiana is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Indiana Pacers +9
