Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Handicapper Tony Karpinski
Boise State vs. Tulsa (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 8.5/-103 Tulsa Play Title: 10* Conference USA Game of the Month
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The Public is all over Boise St tonight because of their #5 ranking and media hype. Vegas just does not give cash away, this is a contrarian play. This is a RARE Nationally televised Primetime game for them.
This game includes a PERFECT 19-0 ATS angle. Here, what we want to do is play on any home dog of more than 7 points, if it's off back-to-back wins, has a win percentage between .701 and .832, and scored 25+ in its most recent game. Tulsa is 4-1 this season, and its only loss came at Oklahoma, 45-0 as an 18-point underdog. Otherwise, the Golden Hurricane have been solid, as they've gone 2-0-1 ATS with one game off the board. Tulsa has won its last two games vs. Sam Houston (56-3) and Rice (27-10) so it falls squarely within our 19-0 system (which hasn't lost in 29 seasons).
By now, everyone is well aware of Boise State's great home record (66-2 straight-up since 1999; 40-17 ATS). But when the Broncos take to the road, they are definitely beatable, as evidenced by their 14-15-1 ATS record since 2003, including a poor 0-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 7 points vs. a foe off a win. In its last game, against unheralded Cal-Davis, Boise looked nothing like the 5th-ranked team in the country. It was held to a season-low 101 rushing yards, and only defeated Cal Davis by 18 points, 34-16. That's not the kind of effort a team wants to have as it goes into Chapman Stadium to take on Tulsa's high-octane offense. The Golden Hurricane have the seventh-ranked QB in the country in G.J. Kinne (1142 yds, 10 TDs, 2 Interceptions), and have won 13 of their last 14 at home.
Boise State has RB issues and injuries. Also, Tulsa defense is tough against the run and allows just 16 ppg, and I expect a tough hard battle late into the 4th quarter and we'll back the home underdog tonight!