Dr. Bob :
Below is the analysis of the 3 games that I release this morning. The lines have obviously moved and I think there is a good chance that the lines could move back a bit. If you haven't played these yet, I would recommend playing Arkansas State now at -11 and Texas State if you have -17 or less (wait if you are showing a 17 1/2 since I think the line will settle at 17). Boise State is sitting at -3 1/2 but is leaning towards going back to -3 in some books and I think it will settle at -3. So, grab a -3 if you have it and wait for the -3 if you currently have -3 1/2 at your book.
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
***ARKANSAS STATE (-9) 33 UL Monroe 13
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 404 Over/Under 0.0
UL Monroe is 3-1 with the only loss being to LSU (0-31) and the Warhawks’ good looking record disguises the fact that they’re a bad team. Their 3 wins were by an average of just 5.3 points to 3 horrible teams (Wake Forest, Idaho, and Troy) and all 3 of those games were at home. Arkansas State is a solid team that has significant advantages over ULM on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Red Wolves have only played one bad game, a 20-41 loss on the road against an underrated Miami-Florida team, and their 19-34 loss at Tennessee was actually very competitive as they were out played from the line of scrimmage by just 4.4 yppl to 5.0 yppl by a pretty good Tennessee team that almost won at Georgia last week. Arkansas State’s other two games were a 37-10 home win over Montana State, a team that is in the same class as UL Monroe, and a 21-14 home win over Utah State – a team that is more than 10 points better than ULM. Let’s take a look at the match up.
The UL Monroe offense is horrible. The Warhawks have averaged just 4.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average team and they’ve been 1.5 yppl worse than average or more in all 4 of their games so far – so the pathetic play has been consistent. I don’t expect the Warhawks to generate many scoring opportunities in this game against a better than average Arkansas State defense that’s yielded just 5.3 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The Red Wolves gave up some big pass plays to Miami but they have allowed 5.1 yppl or less in their other 3 games, including give up just 5.0 yppl at Tennessee. UL Monroe is only averaging 19 points per game and Arkansas State is significantly better defensively than the average defensive rating of the Warhawks’ opponents. My math projects only 262 yards at 4.1 yppl for UL Monroe in this game, which will make it a challenge to top 14 points.
UL Monroe does have a solid defense that’s yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl to an average team and that unit does have the edge over an Arkansas State attack that has been 0.6 yppl worse than average. The Redhawks should improve a bit with top running back Michael Gordon returning to the lineup, as Gordon has averaged 6.6 yards per run in his career and was averaging 6.1 ypr on 14 runs this season before missing the last 2 ½ games. Arkansas State certainly isn’t likely to move the ball with ease, as my model projects a modest 391 yards at 5.2 yppl, but the Redhawks should enjoy a significant field position advantage due to UL Monroe’s horrible offense and a big advantage in special teams. Arkansas State is +5.4 yards in kickoff yard line average over their opponents and +2.0 yards in net punting average while UL Monroe is -1.6 yards in kickoff yard line average and has a -8.6 yard net punt differential. That stuff adds up and the extra field position will benefit the Redhawks in this game. Even if special teams are even the projected 129 total yards advantage and +0.7 projected turnover advantage would be enough to cover the spread here. This is a bad line and one of my math model’s favorite games this week. I’ll take Arkansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -13 and for 1-Star at -13 ½ points.
**TEXAS STATE (-14 ½) 41 Idaho 18
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 398 Over/Under 0.0
Idaho’s foray back to the Sun Belt Conference started with a 10-34 defeat on home territory as a 3 point dog to South Alabama and Idaho is destined to fall again today. The Vandals are horrible on both sides of the ball, rating at 1.0 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) with a turnover prone freshman quarterback (8 interceptions in 4 games) trying to operate behind a horrible offensive line that’s allowed 4.5 sacks per game. The Texas State defense struggled against Navy and Illinois after dominating Arkansas Pine Bluff (so much that I excluded that game from my model) but the Bobcats played well defensively last week against Tulsa, allowing just 4.5 yards per play to an offense that would average 4.7 yppl at home against an average defensive team. Overall, in 3 games against FBS teams the Texas State defense has been 0.7 yppl worse than average, which is 0.3 yppl better than the Idaho offense, and my model is calling for just 5.1 yppl for the Vandals in this game with another 2 interceptions from freshman quarterback Matt Linehan.
The big advantage for the Bobcats in this game is when they have the ball, as experienced quarterback Tyler Jones is having an efficient season (70.4% completions and just 2 interceptions) while running back Robert Lowe is averaging 6.4 ypr. Those numbers were boosted by the close to 700 yards they racked up in their 65-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff and the Bobcats actually have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively against FBS opponents. However, the that attack should work very well against an Idaho defense that has allowed an average of 38 points on 490 yards per game at 7.4 yards per play despite facing 4 below average offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Texas State has a better offense than the average of Idaho’s opponents (UL Monroe, W. Michigan, Ohio, and S. Alabama) and my model projects 568 yards at 7.3 yppl for the Bobcats in this game even after adjusting Idaho’s horrible pass defense numbers (9.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 4.9 yppp) by 1.5 yppp to account for the variance in having allowed 17.3 yards per completion so far (a number that is unlikely to be as high going forward).
Idaho started the season with a competitive 31-38 loss as a 12 point dog at UL Monroe, but it turns out ULM is much worse than anticipated and since then the Vandals have lost by an average of 16 points while going 0-3 ATS against 3 other bad teams. Texas State is a bad team too, but the Bobcats have an offense that is good enough to take advantage of a horrible Idaho defense and their defense is better than Idaho’s offense. Texas State should win this game by 3 touchdowns or more and I’ll take Texas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and as a Strong Opinion at more than 17 points.
**Boise State (-2 ½) 31 NEVADA 20
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 07:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 415 Over/Under 0.0
Boise State is coming off an ugly 14-28 loss at Air Force in which the offense committed 7 turnovers. Nevada, meanwhile, is 3-1 with their only loss being by just 7 points at Arizona and the Wolf Pack have a win over Washington State. It appears as if Nevada is a pretty good team (they’re not) and Boise State’s upset loss to Air Force added to the line value we’re getting for this game. First off, for Boise to lose by only 14 points in a game in which they were -5 in turnovers is actually impressive and it’s certainly unlikely that normally accurate Broncos’ quarterback Grant Hedrick (70.0% completions) will have another multiple turnover game (he threw just 1 interception the previous 3 games). Hedrick won’t even have to throw the ball that often in this game, as Boise State’s Jay Ajayi, who has 557 rushing yards, should have a big game against a soft Nevada run defense that really hasn’t been fully taken advantage of – which his part of the reason the Wolf Pack have performed better than they really are. Nevada had one of the worst run defenses in the nation last season (7.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yprp against an average team) and, while the Wolf Pack are improved in that area, they are still bad against the run. This season Nevada has allowed 5.9 yprp to teams that would combine to average just 4.7 yprp against an average team, but they’ve faced teams that don’t really run the ball – with the exception of Arizona, who ran for 231 yards at 6.2 yprp against them. The win over Washington State was not that unexpected (I had a Strong Opinion on Nevada in that game) given that WSU throws the ball 80% of the time and wouldn’t take advantage of Nevada’s bad run defense and last week the Wolf Pack faced a San Jose State team without a rushing threat (the Spartans are 0.8 yprp worse than average). Boise State will absolutely take advantage of Nevada’s porous run defense, just as they did against Colorado State (339 yard at 6.4 yprp) and Louisiana Lafayette (305 yards at 7.1 yprp). My math model projects 6.6 yprp for Boise State in this game and for Hedrick to average a better than average 6.4 yards per pass play against a slightly worse than average Nevada pass defense. That projection is assuming that Broncos’ top receiver Matt Miller can play and would actually be 0.6 yppp worse without Miller, who sprained an ankle last week and was listed as questionable early in the week. Either way, the ground game will dominate Boise’s game plan and it should work really well.
Boise State actually has a bigger advantage with their defense going up against an overrated Nevada offense that is actually 0.9 yards per play worse than average. The Wolf Pack have managed just 5.2 yards per play in 4 games this season against a collection of defensive units that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. Nevada’s has averaged more than 5.4 yppl just once and that was the 5.8 yppl that they gained against a horrible Southern Utah defense that would allow 6.9 yppl on the road to an average FBS offense. The best defense that Nevada has faced belongs to Washington State, which is about average on a compensated yards per play basis, and the Wolf Pack averaged only 4.3. yppl in that game. Boise State is 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team), which is 0.6 yppl better than Washington State and 1.1 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the teams that Nevada has faced. Nevada has averaged only 25 points per game against that schedule of worse than average defensive teams and they are projected to score just 19 points on 298 yards at 4.2 yppl against Boise’s stout defense.
Nevada is projected to get outgained by 177 total yards and their projected +0.7 turnover margin won’t make up for that difference. I’ve been waiting for another chance to go against Nevada with a team that could exploit their bad run defense and Boise’s upset loss last week supplied us with the necessary line value to make this play. I did have some concerns about Boise State’s banged up secondary but their defense has played consistently well regardless of which players are back there and their only worse than average defensive performance was in week 1 when all 4 of their starting defensive backs were playing. There is apparently plenty of depth in the Boise State secondary based on how well they’ve played without most or all of their original starters. I also was going to wait to see if Matt Miller was clear to play but I ran the numbers assuming he’d miss the game and still got Boise State by 9 points if he doesn’t play (and by 12 points if he does play). Either way, there is more than enough line value to make this play and I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 1-Star all the way up to -6 points.
Below is the analysis of the 3 games that I release this morning. The lines have obviously moved and I think there is a good chance that the lines could move back a bit. If you haven't played these yet, I would recommend playing Arkansas State now at -11 and Texas State if you have -17 or less (wait if you are showing a 17 1/2 since I think the line will settle at 17). Boise State is sitting at -3 1/2 but is leaning towards going back to -3 in some books and I think it will settle at -3. So, grab a -3 if you have it and wait for the -3 if you currently have -3 1/2 at your book.
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
***ARKANSAS STATE (-9) 33 UL Monroe 13
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 404 Over/Under 0.0
UL Monroe is 3-1 with the only loss being to LSU (0-31) and the Warhawks’ good looking record disguises the fact that they’re a bad team. Their 3 wins were by an average of just 5.3 points to 3 horrible teams (Wake Forest, Idaho, and Troy) and all 3 of those games were at home. Arkansas State is a solid team that has significant advantages over ULM on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Red Wolves have only played one bad game, a 20-41 loss on the road against an underrated Miami-Florida team, and their 19-34 loss at Tennessee was actually very competitive as they were out played from the line of scrimmage by just 4.4 yppl to 5.0 yppl by a pretty good Tennessee team that almost won at Georgia last week. Arkansas State’s other two games were a 37-10 home win over Montana State, a team that is in the same class as UL Monroe, and a 21-14 home win over Utah State – a team that is more than 10 points better than ULM. Let’s take a look at the match up.
The UL Monroe offense is horrible. The Warhawks have averaged just 4.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yppl to an average team and they’ve been 1.5 yppl worse than average or more in all 4 of their games so far – so the pathetic play has been consistent. I don’t expect the Warhawks to generate many scoring opportunities in this game against a better than average Arkansas State defense that’s yielded just 5.3 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The Red Wolves gave up some big pass plays to Miami but they have allowed 5.1 yppl or less in their other 3 games, including give up just 5.0 yppl at Tennessee. UL Monroe is only averaging 19 points per game and Arkansas State is significantly better defensively than the average defensive rating of the Warhawks’ opponents. My math projects only 262 yards at 4.1 yppl for UL Monroe in this game, which will make it a challenge to top 14 points.
UL Monroe does have a solid defense that’s yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl to an average team and that unit does have the edge over an Arkansas State attack that has been 0.6 yppl worse than average. The Redhawks should improve a bit with top running back Michael Gordon returning to the lineup, as Gordon has averaged 6.6 yards per run in his career and was averaging 6.1 ypr on 14 runs this season before missing the last 2 ½ games. Arkansas State certainly isn’t likely to move the ball with ease, as my model projects a modest 391 yards at 5.2 yppl, but the Redhawks should enjoy a significant field position advantage due to UL Monroe’s horrible offense and a big advantage in special teams. Arkansas State is +5.4 yards in kickoff yard line average over their opponents and +2.0 yards in net punting average while UL Monroe is -1.6 yards in kickoff yard line average and has a -8.6 yard net punt differential. That stuff adds up and the extra field position will benefit the Redhawks in this game. Even if special teams are even the projected 129 total yards advantage and +0.7 projected turnover advantage would be enough to cover the spread here. This is a bad line and one of my math model’s favorite games this week. I’ll take Arkansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -13 and for 1-Star at -13 ½ points.
**TEXAS STATE (-14 ½) 41 Idaho 18
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 398 Over/Under 0.0
Idaho’s foray back to the Sun Belt Conference started with a 10-34 defeat on home territory as a 3 point dog to South Alabama and Idaho is destined to fall again today. The Vandals are horrible on both sides of the ball, rating at 1.0 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) with a turnover prone freshman quarterback (8 interceptions in 4 games) trying to operate behind a horrible offensive line that’s allowed 4.5 sacks per game. The Texas State defense struggled against Navy and Illinois after dominating Arkansas Pine Bluff (so much that I excluded that game from my model) but the Bobcats played well defensively last week against Tulsa, allowing just 4.5 yards per play to an offense that would average 4.7 yppl at home against an average defensive team. Overall, in 3 games against FBS teams the Texas State defense has been 0.7 yppl worse than average, which is 0.3 yppl better than the Idaho offense, and my model is calling for just 5.1 yppl for the Vandals in this game with another 2 interceptions from freshman quarterback Matt Linehan.
The big advantage for the Bobcats in this game is when they have the ball, as experienced quarterback Tyler Jones is having an efficient season (70.4% completions and just 2 interceptions) while running back Robert Lowe is averaging 6.4 ypr. Those numbers were boosted by the close to 700 yards they racked up in their 65-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff and the Bobcats actually have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively against FBS opponents. However, the that attack should work very well against an Idaho defense that has allowed an average of 38 points on 490 yards per game at 7.4 yards per play despite facing 4 below average offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Texas State has a better offense than the average of Idaho’s opponents (UL Monroe, W. Michigan, Ohio, and S. Alabama) and my model projects 568 yards at 7.3 yppl for the Bobcats in this game even after adjusting Idaho’s horrible pass defense numbers (9.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 4.9 yppp) by 1.5 yppp to account for the variance in having allowed 17.3 yards per completion so far (a number that is unlikely to be as high going forward).
Idaho started the season with a competitive 31-38 loss as a 12 point dog at UL Monroe, but it turns out ULM is much worse than anticipated and since then the Vandals have lost by an average of 16 points while going 0-3 ATS against 3 other bad teams. Texas State is a bad team too, but the Bobcats have an offense that is good enough to take advantage of a horrible Idaho defense and their defense is better than Idaho’s offense. Texas State should win this game by 3 touchdowns or more and I’ll take Texas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and as a Strong Opinion at more than 17 points.
**Boise State (-2 ½) 31 NEVADA 20
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 07:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 415 Over/Under 0.0
Boise State is coming off an ugly 14-28 loss at Air Force in which the offense committed 7 turnovers. Nevada, meanwhile, is 3-1 with their only loss being by just 7 points at Arizona and the Wolf Pack have a win over Washington State. It appears as if Nevada is a pretty good team (they’re not) and Boise State’s upset loss to Air Force added to the line value we’re getting for this game. First off, for Boise to lose by only 14 points in a game in which they were -5 in turnovers is actually impressive and it’s certainly unlikely that normally accurate Broncos’ quarterback Grant Hedrick (70.0% completions) will have another multiple turnover game (he threw just 1 interception the previous 3 games). Hedrick won’t even have to throw the ball that often in this game, as Boise State’s Jay Ajayi, who has 557 rushing yards, should have a big game against a soft Nevada run defense that really hasn’t been fully taken advantage of – which his part of the reason the Wolf Pack have performed better than they really are. Nevada had one of the worst run defenses in the nation last season (7.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yprp against an average team) and, while the Wolf Pack are improved in that area, they are still bad against the run. This season Nevada has allowed 5.9 yprp to teams that would combine to average just 4.7 yprp against an average team, but they’ve faced teams that don’t really run the ball – with the exception of Arizona, who ran for 231 yards at 6.2 yprp against them. The win over Washington State was not that unexpected (I had a Strong Opinion on Nevada in that game) given that WSU throws the ball 80% of the time and wouldn’t take advantage of Nevada’s bad run defense and last week the Wolf Pack faced a San Jose State team without a rushing threat (the Spartans are 0.8 yprp worse than average). Boise State will absolutely take advantage of Nevada’s porous run defense, just as they did against Colorado State (339 yard at 6.4 yprp) and Louisiana Lafayette (305 yards at 7.1 yprp). My math model projects 6.6 yprp for Boise State in this game and for Hedrick to average a better than average 6.4 yards per pass play against a slightly worse than average Nevada pass defense. That projection is assuming that Broncos’ top receiver Matt Miller can play and would actually be 0.6 yppp worse without Miller, who sprained an ankle last week and was listed as questionable early in the week. Either way, the ground game will dominate Boise’s game plan and it should work really well.
Boise State actually has a bigger advantage with their defense going up against an overrated Nevada offense that is actually 0.9 yards per play worse than average. The Wolf Pack have managed just 5.2 yards per play in 4 games this season against a collection of defensive units that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. Nevada’s has averaged more than 5.4 yppl just once and that was the 5.8 yppl that they gained against a horrible Southern Utah defense that would allow 6.9 yppl on the road to an average FBS offense. The best defense that Nevada has faced belongs to Washington State, which is about average on a compensated yards per play basis, and the Wolf Pack averaged only 4.3. yppl in that game. Boise State is 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team), which is 0.6 yppl better than Washington State and 1.1 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the teams that Nevada has faced. Nevada has averaged only 25 points per game against that schedule of worse than average defensive teams and they are projected to score just 19 points on 298 yards at 4.2 yppl against Boise’s stout defense.
Nevada is projected to get outgained by 177 total yards and their projected +0.7 turnover margin won’t make up for that difference. I’ve been waiting for another chance to go against Nevada with a team that could exploit their bad run defense and Boise’s upset loss last week supplied us with the necessary line value to make this play. I did have some concerns about Boise State’s banged up secondary but their defense has played consistently well regardless of which players are back there and their only worse than average defensive performance was in week 1 when all 4 of their starting defensive backs were playing. There is apparently plenty of depth in the Boise State secondary based on how well they’ve played without most or all of their original starters. I also was going to wait to see if Matt Miller was clear to play but I ran the numbers assuming he’d miss the game and still got Boise State by 9 points if he doesn’t play (and by 12 points if he does play). Either way, there is more than enough line value to make this play and I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 1-Star all the way up to -6 points.
