THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Hawaii (2-1, 2-0 AT) at Louisiana Tech (1-2, 0-2 ATS)
Hawaii heads back to the mainland for the third straight game as it opens Western Athletic Conference play against the Bulldogs at Joe Aillet Stadium.
The Warriors opened up with victories over Central Arkansas (25-20 in a non-lined home game) and Washington State (38-20 as a 1½-point road chalk), then went to Las Vegas on Sept. 19 and fell 34-33 to UNLV, cashing as a seven-point road underdog. Hawaii held a 33-28 lead against UNLV before allowing a 15-yard touchdown pass with 36 seconds remaining, losing despite finishing with 505 total yards, including 477 passing yards by QB Greg Alexander.
Louisiana Tech kicked off 2009 with blowout road losses to Auburn (37-13 as a 13½-point underdog) and Navy (32-14 as a seven-point pup), but the Bulldogs returned home Sept. 19 and got back on track in a big way with a 48-13 rout of Division I-AA Nichols State in a non-lined contest. Still, since a 4-0 run to start last November, Louisiana Tech is just 1-3 (2-2 ATS) against Division I-A competition.
Hawaii has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) and six of seven (5-2 ATS) against the Bulldogs this decade, including last year’s 24-14 home victory as a 7½-point favorite. The host is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes (5-0 ATS last five), with the SU winner going 6-1 ATS as well. Also, take away a pick-em game in 2003, and the favorite has cashed in five of the last six meetings.
The Warriors are averaging 32 points and 514.7 yards per game, with Alexander doing most of the damage (67 percent completion rate, 1,222 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs). Also, the defense has been respectable, allowing 24.7 points and 384 yards per contest (126.3 rushing ypg). Conversely, the Bulldogs have been outscored (27.3-25.0 ppg) and outgained (406.7-323.3 ypg) through their three games, with the defense getting gashed for 250.7 rushing ypg (4.7 yards per carry). La-Tech quarterback Ross Jenkins has completed 62 percent of his throws for 662 yards, three TDs and two INTs.
In addition to cashing in its first two lined games of 2009, Hawaii carries a slew of additional pointspread trends into tonight, including 9-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 9-3 in September, 7-2 coming off a straight-up loss, 5-1 as an underdog and 6-1 in WAC contests. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, but otherwise are in pointspread slumps of 5-13 after a bye week, 8-21 against teams with a winning record, 8-28-1 after a SU victory, 3-11 in September and 1-4 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points.
Thanks to a high-octane offense, the Warriors are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall, 21-10 in WAC play, 20-8-1 after a SU defeat and 4-0 as an underdog. Louisiana Tech has topped the total in four of six overall, four of five at home, three of four as a favorite and five of six in league action. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four series meetings between these schools, with the lone “under” coming last season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (84-74) at Atlanta (86-71)
Javier Vazquez (15-9, 2.83 ERA) looks to keep the streaking Braves in the N.L. wild-card race as he pitches opposite the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco (12-9, 5.28) in the finale of a three-game series at Turner Field.
Atlanta had a season-high seven-game winning streak snapped in Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to Florida, a costly setback that dropped the Braves three games behind wild-card leading Colorado, which got a walk-off 7-5, 11-inning victory over Milwaukee. Still, Atlanta is on runs of 15-3 overall (5-3 at home), 11-3 against the N.L. East, 13-2 as a favorite, 13-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1 in the third game of a series.
Florida has split its last 18 games, a slump that has dropped the team 5½ games out in the wild-card standings. The Marlins are otherwise on positive streaks of 8-4 on the road, 12-6 in N.L. East play, 6-1 as an underdog and 5-0 on Wednesday.
The Marlins hold a slim 9-8 edge in the season series with Atlanta, and the road team has won 10 of the 17 contests. However, dating back several years, Florida is in an 18-36 rut at Turner Field (5-3 this year).
Nolasco has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and he’s got a 39-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this stretch, including 17-2 in his last two outings. The right-hander pitched seven innings on Friday against the Mets, yielding three runs on four hits, but got a no-decision as the Marlins lost 6-5. Nolasco is 7-5 despite a hefty 5.54 ERA on the road this year.
Florida is 5-2 in Nolasco’s last five starts on the highway and 7-3 in his last 10 against divisional foes, but the Marlins have lost six of Nolasco’s last eight starts against the Braves, going 0-4 in Atlanta. For his career, he’s 2-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) versus the Braves (1-0, 4.67 ERA in three starts this year).
Vazquez is 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last four trips to the hill (three runs allowed in 32 innings), including a pair of complete games, the most recent coming Friday at Washington when the veteran right-hander scattered three hits and a run in a 4-1 victory. However, Vazquez is just 5-7 at home this season despite a 2.85 ERA, and the Braves are just 7-8 when he pitches at Turner Field, averaging less than four runs per game.
Vazquez is 6-7 with a 4.88 ERA in 21 appearances (20 starts) against the Marlins, including 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in four starts this season (three of which the Braves lost). In fact, Vazquez has faced Florida 10 times with three different teams since 2002, and the Marlins are 8-2.
With Nolasco pitching, the Marlins are on “over” surges of 6-1 overall, 8-2 on Wednesday, 4-0 against the N.L. East and 4-0 when he faces the Braves in Atlanta. Similarly, the “over” behind Vazquez is on runs of 8-3-2 overall, 3-1-1 on Wednesday and 4-0-1 when pitching on four days’ rest, but the under is still 6-2-2 in Vazquez’s last 10 outings at Turner Field.
The under is 6-1-1 in Florida’s last eight road games, and Atlanta is on “under” runs of 5-2 overall (all against divisional foes), 4-2 against right-handed starters and 10-5-1 at home against teams with a winning record. Finally, the under is 6-3-1 in the last nine Braves-Marlins battles at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (82-75) at Detroit (84-73)
The Twins face a virtual must-win situation tonight at Comerica Park as they send Carl Pavano (13-11, 4.86 ERA) the mound in the third game of a four-game set against the Tigers, who will hand the ball to Eddie Bonine (0-1, 4.60).
These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, with the Twins earning a 3-2, 10-inning victory in the opener and the Tigers holding on for a 6-5 win in the nightcap. With the split, Detroit continues to lead the A.L. Central by two games over Minnesota.
The Twins have used an 12-3 surge to climb back into the playoff race. They’re on additional runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-2 on Wednesday, 11-2 on the road versus right-handed starters, 8-1 as a favorite and 17-6 in A.L. Central games.
Detroit has followed up a 3-9 slump by winning six of its last nine. Jim Leyland’s squad is 34-16 in its last 50 home games.
The Twins are 10-6 against Detroit this season, with the host taking 11 of the 16 meetings.
Pavano earned a 9-4 victory at Kansas City on Friday, yielding all four runs in six innings. That ended a string of six consecutive quality starts in which he gave up two earned runs or fewer four times. The Twins are unbeaten in Pavano’s last four trips to the mound, and they’re 5-1 in his last six road efforts. For the season, Pavano is 9-6 with a 4.84 ERA in 18 starts on the highway, including 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in six road efforts since being traded to the Twins in early August.
Pavano has faced the Tigers twice since joining Minnesota, pitching seven shutout innings in an 11-0 road win on Aug. 8 (his first start with the Twins), then yielding two runs on 11 hits in seven innings on Sept. 19, getting a no-decision in Minnesota’s 6-2 victory. In fact, all five of Pavano’s career starts against Detroit have come this season, and he’s 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA (3-0, 1.61 ERA in three games at Comerica Park).
Bonine has made two starts this month, allowing five runs (three earned) in 11 2/3 innings, with the Tigers beating the Royals 4-3 at home on Sept. 16, then losing 2-0 at the White Sox on Friday. Going back to last year, Detroit has won five straight games behind Bonine at home, where the right-hander has a 5.40 ERA in 15 innings (two starts, two relief appearances) in 2009. Bonine’s only career outing against the Twins came last July, and he survived just 2 2/3 innings, yielding five runs (two earned) in a 7-0 road loss.
As a team, Minnesota is on “under” surges of 20-7-4 overall, 14-5-3 against right-handed starters, 8-3-2 on Wednesday, 12-4-2 as a chalk and 3-1-2 in Pavano’s last six starts, though the Twins have topped the total in five of seven on the road (all within the division). Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 5-2 overall (all against the A.L. Central) and 7-2 at home. However, the under is 6-1 in Bonine’s last seven starts dating to last season.
Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall, but the over is 4-2-1 in the last seven series clashes at Comerica Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
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