Dave Malinsky
6* Top of the Ticket - Day
MINNESOTA TWINS (Duensing)+135 over Chicago White Sox (Buehrle)
6* #918 MINNESOTA over CHICAGO WHIE SOX
Last night we pointed out the absurdity of the White Sox being favored on this field, and now we have more of the same. A slow team that is poor defensively (only the Nationals have given up more runs directly via errors) is now on a 2-16 run in the Metrodome as they head to their final game ever here, which brings little confidence to the table, and at 1-8 overall on this road trip, while also having lost Jim Thome and seeing their playoff hopes fade to black, there is little reason to fear a high energy level for this early start. So once again the question becomes whether or not the starting pitcher accounts or the line. Again it does not, and this time we raise the rating to take advantage of the extreme value. Mark Buehrle is a fine craftsman, but he pitches to contact. Put a pitcher that does that on a fast surface with a weak defense behind him and what do you have? Trouble. The past two seasons he has worked to an 0-4/8.31 tune from this mound, and that includes a pair of recent July starts that the Twins won by a combined eight runs. Hence the added problem – a finesse pitcher tends to be easier to read the more the opposition sees him, and this will be the fifth look for Minnesota this season, and 7th since the All Start break LY. Making this equation even more interesting is that while the Mauer/Morneau heart of the Twin lineup can match up with just about anyone, some of the supporting cast have particularly had their way with Buehrle – Delmon Young is at 8-20 lifetime with two home runs; Denard Spann 7-17 with two home runs; and Carlos Gomez 8-20, also with two homers. At 0-4/5.77 since throwing that no-hitter vs. Tampa Bay back in July, Buehrle hardly brings enough to take the limited package behind him to this level of favoritism. Brian Duensing is not going to wow anyone with this stuff, but he is a classic example of a pitcher being brought along the proper way – having had 57 starts at the AAA level the past three seasons, he know how to pitch, and get the most out of what he has. He has worked to a 2-0/2.65 as a starter through three opportunities, only walking three batters in those 17 frames and producing a positive ratio of ground ball outs each time, and these days you do not have to do much more than throw strikes to get past a weak Chicago lineup, particularly as we update the slumps of key right-handers Jermaine Dye (17-102 over his last 27 games, with only three of the hits going for extra bases), and Alex Rios (10-60 in a White Sox uniform, with 16 strikeouts). And Duensing knows just what his job is here – make a couple of good passes through the lineup, and then turn things over to a strong bullpen, one that had a rare hiccup from Matt Guerrier last night, but still managed to get the win without using Joe Nathan. The latter is fresh to close this one out, which is among the better comforts in the Majors to have.
6* Top of the Ticket - Day
MINNESOTA TWINS (Duensing)+135 over Chicago White Sox (Buehrle)
6* #918 MINNESOTA over CHICAGO WHIE SOX
Last night we pointed out the absurdity of the White Sox being favored on this field, and now we have more of the same. A slow team that is poor defensively (only the Nationals have given up more runs directly via errors) is now on a 2-16 run in the Metrodome as they head to their final game ever here, which brings little confidence to the table, and at 1-8 overall on this road trip, while also having lost Jim Thome and seeing their playoff hopes fade to black, there is little reason to fear a high energy level for this early start. So once again the question becomes whether or not the starting pitcher accounts or the line. Again it does not, and this time we raise the rating to take advantage of the extreme value. Mark Buehrle is a fine craftsman, but he pitches to contact. Put a pitcher that does that on a fast surface with a weak defense behind him and what do you have? Trouble. The past two seasons he has worked to an 0-4/8.31 tune from this mound, and that includes a pair of recent July starts that the Twins won by a combined eight runs. Hence the added problem – a finesse pitcher tends to be easier to read the more the opposition sees him, and this will be the fifth look for Minnesota this season, and 7th since the All Start break LY. Making this equation even more interesting is that while the Mauer/Morneau heart of the Twin lineup can match up with just about anyone, some of the supporting cast have particularly had their way with Buehrle – Delmon Young is at 8-20 lifetime with two home runs; Denard Spann 7-17 with two home runs; and Carlos Gomez 8-20, also with two homers. At 0-4/5.77 since throwing that no-hitter vs. Tampa Bay back in July, Buehrle hardly brings enough to take the limited package behind him to this level of favoritism. Brian Duensing is not going to wow anyone with this stuff, but he is a classic example of a pitcher being brought along the proper way – having had 57 starts at the AAA level the past three seasons, he know how to pitch, and get the most out of what he has. He has worked to a 2-0/2.65 as a starter through three opportunities, only walking three batters in those 17 frames and producing a positive ratio of ground ball outs each time, and these days you do not have to do much more than throw strikes to get past a weak Chicago lineup, particularly as we update the slumps of key right-handers Jermaine Dye (17-102 over his last 27 games, with only three of the hits going for extra bases), and Alex Rios (10-60 in a White Sox uniform, with 16 strikeouts). And Duensing knows just what his job is here – make a couple of good passes through the lineup, and then turn things over to a strong bullpen, one that had a rare hiccup from Matt Guerrier last night, but still managed to get the win without using Joe Nathan. The latter is fresh to close this one out, which is among the better comforts in the Majors to have.
