Jeff Benton
Wednesday's MLB winners ... 10 Dime: DODGERS (over Mets) ... NOTE: Stick with this play regardless of any changes to the starting pitchers.
5 Dime: Rangers-Angels OVER the total ... NOTE: Vicente Padilla (Rangers) and Ervin Santana (Angels) must start this game on the mound or this play is VOID!
Dodgers
You know I’m not a fan of laying this kind of chalk, especially with a road team. But I’m making an exception tonight because the Mets are just god-awful right now. With last night’s 8-0 shutout loss to Los Angeles, New York has now dropped four in a row, which in and of itself wouldn’t be THAT bad except when you look at the scores of those four games: 7-2, 4-1, 2-0 and 8-0.
That’s right: The Mets have produced just three runs in their last 36 innings. Going back to June 26, New York is 2-9 in its last 11 games, and the only wins came by scores of 1-0 at Milwaukee and 9-8 at Pittsburgh in extra innings. If you take out that nine-run effort at the Pirates and a six-run output in a 10-6 loss at the Brewers, the Mets have scored a grand total of 10 runs in the other nine games during this 2-9 slump, including a total of three runs in four straight home losses.
Now compare that to what the Dodgers’ offense has done since Manny Ramirez returned to the lineup, putting up 8, 7, 4 and 6 runs – all on the road, all in pitcher’s parks (San Diego and New York) – while winning three of those four contests. In fact, L.A. is 4-1 in its last five games, and it continues to own baseball’s best record at 53-30. Those 53 wins include four victories in as many tries against the Mets, whose putrid offense has produced a total of six runs against L.A. pitching this season.
Speaking of pitching, the Dodgers also have the edge on the mound tonight with Hiroki Kuroda (3-4, 3.91 ERA overall; 3-1, 3.60 ERA on the road) going up against Oliver Perez, who is returning from a two-month stint on the disabled list that was as much about mental issues as it was any physical ailment. Before being essentially demoted to the minors, Perez posted a 9.97 ERA in five starts, with the Mets losing four of them. He’s given up 28 hits and 21 walks in 21 2/3 innings. Now the southpaw is going up against one of the most patient, productive lineups in all of baseball – a lineup that’s hitting .290 on the season against lefties!
Bottom line: Perez is going to have to be near perfect to win this game because there’s little chance he’s going to get much run support from an offense that’s barely batting .200 during its 2-9 slump. And while I know the old cliché is that pitching wins games, but if you can’t score, you can’t win. And right now the Mets cannot score a lick. So we’ll lay the reasonable chalk with the best team in baseball as it improves to 5-0 against New York this season.
Rangers-Angels OVER the total
Let’s start with the fact that these teams have faced each other four times in the last eight days and the final scores of those contests were 9-5, 9-7, 9-4 and 8-5 – all four easily going OVER the total. Going back to the last week of the 2008 season, these teams have played five games at Angel Stadium and combined for 13, 12, 7, 14, 16, 13 and 13 runs.
Of course, as I always say, any play on a baseball total – be it an over or under – has to begin with the starting pitching. Well, we’ve got two starters going tonight who are giving it up in bunches in Texas’ Vicente Padilla and L.A.’s Ervin Santana.
Padilla has a 4.75 ERA overall and a 6.38 ERA in eight night games (compared with a 3.07 ERA in day contests). Padilla has allowed 126 baserunners in 83 1/3 innings, including 77 baserunners in 42 1/3 innings at night. And in last Monday’s 5-2 loss to the Angels – his most recent start – Padilla gave up five runs on 10 hits (two home runs) in five innings. He’s now got an ERA barely south of 5.00 in 13 career starts against the Angels, and the “over” is 5-0 in his last five starts at Angel Stadium.
As for Santana, in between two stints on the disabled list, the right-hander has made seven starts in 2009 and been dreadful in nearly all of them. He’s 1-4 with a 7.43 ERA overall, including 0-2 with a whopping 12.12 ERA in four starts at home, giving up 24 runs, 34 hits and 10 walks in just 16 1/3 innings in his own ballpark (where he had previously dominated in his career). Also, the right-hander hasn’t exactly enjoyed facing Texas, posting a 6.46 ERA in 14 career starts, with the “over” going 5-1-1 in his last seven outings against the Rangers.
The over is also on runs of 4-1-1 for Santana at home, 27-13-2 for Padilla on the road, 4-1 in the Rangers’ last five on the highway and 11-4-1 in the Angels’ last 16 at home. Throw in two sensational offensive ballclubs, and this one’s got double digit runs written all over it. Play it OVER the total.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY IRONHORSE AND MYSELF-----GL GUYS