BURNS MLB
Baseball (MLB)
OVER tampa bay/kc
writeup to follow
SAN DIEGO
Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Game Time: 6/3/2009 10:05:00 PM Prediction: San Diego Padres Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. This line has fallen from it's opening number and I feel we're now getting excellent value with the Padres. The Phillies have won the first two games of this series but I expect them to have some real trouble scoring runs in this evening's finale. Chris Young goes for San Diego and he's a perfect 4-0 (Padres are 5-0) in five home starts. While averaging greater than six innings per start and going a minimum of six in each, Young allowed two earned runs or less in four of those five starts and three in the other. His home ERA for the season is 2.25. His WHIP is 1.00 and he's got 28 K's to go along with just nine walks. The Padres won those games by a combined score of 23-9, most recently a 7-2 winner over Lilly and the Cubs. Looking back further and we find that Young has allowed three earned runs or less in 15 straight home starts, dating back to September of 2007, and 19 of his last 20 here. He went a minimum of six innings in 17 of those 20 games. That includes a 1-0 shutout victory vs. Cole Hamels in his lone home start vs. the Phillies (on 7/19/07) during that stretch. That was Young's only career home start vs. the Phillies. However, he has also made a few starts at Philadelphia. While Young did get roughed up (SD still won) at Philadelphia back in April, the Padres are still 3-1 in his four starts against the Phillies, including 3-0 the most recent three. Happ has done a solid job since joining the starting rotation, recording a 3.97 ERA in two starts. However, that's still a very small sample size compared to the type of consistent success that Young has enjoyed here. With the Padres looking to avoid the sweep and the Phillies potentially looking ahead to the Dodgers and Mets - (they play at LA tomorrow and series is followed by one at NY; the Dodgers are currently the top team in the majors and the Mets are the Phillies' primary division rival) - I'm backing Young and the home team. *NL GOW