Dr Bob
2 Best Bets for Wednesday.
Rotation #565 Oklahoma (+4 1/2) 2-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +5.
Rotation #583 Florida Intl. (+5 1/2) 2-Stars at +5 or more, 3-Stars at +6.
Opinions below.
2 Star Selection
**Oklahoma (+4 ½) over MISSOURI
06:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 565
The line on this game is fair if you weight all games for both teams equally (and exclude the 2 games in which Oklahoma star Blake Griffin didn’t play from start to end), but Missouri built up their rating by playing relatively better against bad teams than they have against good teams while Oklahoma is just the opposite. Oklahoma is 26-1 straight up with Griffin healthy, as they lost at Texas when he was injured in the first half of that game and lost their next game at home to Kansas when he didn’t play at all. The Sooners have let up against lesser teams, going just 3-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite, but they are 11-2 ATS with Griffin when not favored by 10 points or more (7-0 straight up and 6-0-1 ATS from -5 to dog). Missouri, meanwhile, is 10-3 ATS favored by 6 points or more and just 4-5 straight up and 3-6 ATS when not favored by at least 6 points. Most of those games have been away from home but the Tigers also didn’t cover in their only home game against a good team, beating Kansas by just 2 points as a 4 ½ point favorite. If I only include games against quality teams for each team then I would make this game a pick and Missouri’s 65-90 loss at Kansas on Sunday sets the Tigers up in a negative 49-118-7 ATS situation tonight. I’ll take Oklahoma in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +5 or more.
2 Star Selection
**Florida International (+5 ½) over UL LAFAYETTE
05:30 PM Pacific - Rotation 583
Florida International had more than their fair share of injuries to key players this season, but the Panthers are healthy now, playing well, and underrated. FIU played their first 14 games without leading scorer Alex Galindo, their first 20 games without #3 scorer and top assist man Josue Soto, 10 games without #2 scorer, top rebounder and their best overall player Freddy Asprilla, and 14 games without 7 foot center Russell Hicks. All 4 of those players have been playing lately, but the two keys to the team are Galindo and Asprilla and the Panther are 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS when they both play – compared to 6-15 straight up and 5-12 ATS when one or the other is not playing. Asprilla was out when UL Lafayette beat the Panthers 90-73 at home on February 5th and that outcome had more to do with random 3-point shooting variance than anything else. ULL has made just 32% of their 3-pointers while allowing 36% 3-pointers this season while FIU has both made and allowed 35% from long range. Even after factoring in the home court edge for Lafayette the 3-point shooting still should have been slightly in Florida International’s favor in that game, but the Panthers made a randomly bad 4 of 21 3-point shots while Lafayette made a randomly good 14 of 30 from beyond the arc. That’s a huge difference that was mostly random, so there is no doubt that FIU can win this game with Asprilla in the lineup and with the 3-point shooting of both teams being closer to expected levels. My ratings favor UL Lafayette by just 3 ½ points and FIU applies to a 42-13 ATS conference tournament revenge situation. I’ll take Florida International in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 or more.
Wednesday NBA Opinions
CLEVELAND (-13) over Milwaukee
Rotation #502 – 4:05 pm Pacific The Cavaliers’ are 20-7 ATS at home this season with their average win by 15 points and their median margin also at 15 points. Milwaukee is a few points worse than an average team without both leading scorer Michal Redd and big man Andew Bogut, so favoring Cleveland by only 13 points in this game is a mistake by the oddsmakers. The fact that the Bucks played last night makes it even more likely this will be a blowout, as unrested teams have had chance at Cleveland this season. The Cavs are a perfect 6-0 ATS against teams that played the previous night with their average win by 23 points and their 3 games hosting unrested losing teams resulted in wins of 35 points over Oklahoma City, by 36 points over the Knicks and by 30 points over Charlotte. My ratings favor the Cavaliers by 16 points and I’ll lean with Cleveland minus the points.
DALLAS (-3) over San Antonio
Rotation #514 – 6:05 pm Pacific
Dallas has lost their last 2 meetings with the Spurs and the Mavericks apply to a very good 43-9-1 ATS subset of a 92-43-2 ATS home revenge situation tonight. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Dallas by just 2 points with Manu Ginobili out for the Spurs and the line has gone from -1 to -3. I’ll lean with the Mavs at -3 or less and I’d take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or less.
Wednesday College Opinions
George Washington (+6 ½) over MASSACUSETTS
Rotation #527 – 4 pm Pacific
George Washington has always performed better in conference play under coach Karl Hobbs (79-56-3 ATS) than they have in early season non-conference games (25-31-2 ATS) and this season has been no different (1-5-1 ATS non-conference, 8-4-2 ATS conference). The Colonials are coming off a couple of wins and they apply to a solid 133-76-1 ATS momentum situation that is 56-15-1 ATS when applying to underdogs. U Mass has been an under-performing team under first year coach Derek Kellogg and the Minutemen are just 4-12-1 ATS when not getting at least 5 points. I’ll lean with Colonials at +6 and I’d take George Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
NEBRASKA (-9 ½) over Iowa State
Rotation #548 – 4:30 pm Pacific
Nebraska has been much better at home under coach Doc Sadler (19-13 ATS) than they have been on the road (9-21-1 ATS) and the Cornhuskers apply to a solid 80-28-8 ATS last home game revenge situation tonight. My ratings only favor Nebraska by 9 points, and I’ll just lean with the Cornhuskers.
LSU (-9) over Vanderbilt
Rotation #558 – 5 pm Pacific
As has been his pattern throughout his coaching career, LSU’s Trent Johnson has his team playing much better in conference play than he had them playing early in the season. Johnson’s teams at Nevada, Stanford, and now LSU are just 57-54-2 ATS in non-conference games and a very profitable 102-65-6 ATS in conference play – including 51-18-3 ATS when not favored by 10 points or more against conference foes with a win percentage of less than .640 (2-1 so far with LSU). My ratings favor LSU by 12 ½ points if Bo Spencer plays, but Spencer is questionable with an injured wrist and the Tigers are 0-2 ATS without him this season (he missed recent games against Ole’ Miss and Arkansas). I’ll lean with LSU at -9 ½ or less even if Spencer doesn’t play and I’d take LSU as a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 or less if Spencer is upgraded to probable before tip-off.
