GRIDIRON GOLD
Heading into the home stretch of the regular season, the Toledo Rockets and Northern Illinois Huskies will battle for Mid-American Conference West Division supremacy on Tuesday night at Huskie Stadium.
Toledo is the only remaining unbeaten team in MAC play, entering this mid-week matchup with a 5-0 conference ledger. The team helped improve that unblemished record with a 30-20 victory over winless Kent State last Tuesday on the road.
Northern Illinois has won three consecutive games since its last loss to Central Michigan, and sits on a 4-1 conference record – just a game behind the league-leading Rockets. With a win, the Huskies can claim at least a share of the West Division lead, with 4-1 Western Michigan set to play later in the week.
The Rockets once again used their prowess in the run game to help take down another opponent. Toledo racked up 221 yards on the ground in last week’s matchup with Kent State. It helped that Toledo buried Kent State right from the start, leading 16-0 at halftime and eventually taking a 24-0 lead before the Golden Flashes could find the end zone.
Kareem Hunt had another spectacular day running the football, gaining 141 yards on 18 carries. Teammate Terry Swanson took 17 handoffs for 75 yards in the win, which was more one-sided than the score appeared. The Rockets average 245.3 rushing ypg this season, and have scored 20 times on the ground. Hunt leads the team with 866 yards and eight touchdowns, while Swanson isn’t too far off at 661 yards with six scores.
The field general for Toledo is quarterback Logan Woodside, who stepped in for transfer Phillip Ely early this season and has performed brilliantly. Against Kent State, Woodside threw for 202 yards and three touchdowns, bringing his season total to 14 passing scores with just five interceptions. He’s helped his team average 34.4 ppg and nearly 500 yards of offense per outing, which will be tough for the Northern Illinois defense to slow down.
However, the Toledo defense has been a bit lackluster this season, allowing opponents to score 32.1 ppg in nine games played. The good sign for the Rockets entering this contest is that their run defense allows just 133.3 rushing ypg to opponents. It will need to be strong, because the Huskies are one of the top rushing teams in the conference.
Toledo will set linebackers Junior Sylvestre (70 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss) and Trent Voss (53 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) loose on the Northern Illinois run game, which averages 265.7 rushing ypg. Cornerback Jordan Haden (younger brother of Cleveland Browns corner Joe Haden) has a team-high three interceptions, so he’ll be in charge of watching NIU quarterback Drew Hare as he drops back to pass. Toledo has forced just three fumbles and recovered only two this entire season.
Northern Illinois has been an offensive force in the team’s last three outings, scoring at least 28 points in each contest, including a 51-41 victory over Miami-Ohio in mid-October. The Huskies are playing this contest just six days after their defeat of Ball State, 35-21, which saw the team rush for 236 yards and four touchdowns.
Cameron Stingily gained 148 yards on 26 carries, scoring three of NIU’s four rushing touchdowns in the win. Stingily and Hare have been the dominant forces in the Huskies’ rushing attack this year, with Stingily leading the team at 625 yards and eight touchdowns. Hare has gained 621 yards on the ground, adding five touchdowns to his stat line. It’s no secret Northern Illinois will run the football, especially considering the team has six players that average at least 24 rushing ypg this season.
Hare has proven to be a steady and effective passer under center as well. In nine games played, he’s thrown for 1,352 yards and 11 touchdowns with just one interception. His completion percentage is just over 60 percent, and his passer efficiency rating hovers just above the 140 line. He’s helped his team to average 32 ppg, so the contest against Toledo should be a shootout.
Northern Illinois’ defense fared well against Ball State, which has been a hot team offensively since making a full-time quarterback switch. The Huskies limited the Cardinals to 21 points in the outing, which means the defense has held five opponents to fewer than 22 points this season. The team is allowing a 25.7 ppg average to challengers, and has recorded just 12 takeaways this season (tied for 91st in the FBS this season).
Safety Marlon Moore is still the team leader in tackles with 67, and has been responsible for one interception and two forced fumbles. Lineman Jason Meehan may be the most effective player on the defensive side of the ball for the Huskies, however, having recorded 8.5 tackles for loss and six sacks through nine games. Defensive back Paris Logan has a team-best two interceptions and 10 pass breakups, so he’ll be keying in on Woodside looking to force Toledo into making mistakes.
This contest should absolutely be a high-scoring affair, but the frigid weather may have something to say about the total. Toledo’s strong run defense faces its toughest challenge this season with Hare, Stingily and the rest of the Huskies prepared to run wild at home. The all-time series lead heavily favors Toledo in the long-standing rivalry, 29-12. However the Huskies have won the last four meetings, including a 35-17 triumph at Toledo last season. The Huskies rushed 55 times for a whopping 364 yards in that game. With so much on the line in the conference standings, expect the Huskies to show up on fire and ready to go.
Gridiron Gold Prediction: Northern Illinois 34, Toledo 27
