Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report -Tuesday
TUESDAY 09/30/2008
7:00 PM EDT
5 STAR SELECTION (rated 1-6 Units)
Florida Atlantic +3 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
In a nationally televised Sun Belt Conference game on Tuesday, the Blue Raiders will be hosting the Owls with both teams looking to shake off recent losses. Middle Tennessee is 0-2 in conference play after losing to Troy in the season opener and Arkansas State last weekend, while Florida Atlantic is also looking for their first SBC win after completing a four-game stretch of out-of-conference games. The Owls have not been too impressive thus far, although they've faced some difficult competition against Texas, Michigan State, and Minnesota, teams that have a combined record of 12-2 SU!
We’ve seen this before with Florida Atlantic, as they the defending conference champs and were selected by the conference's coaches to repeat as champions. Just like last year, they don't possess an overwhelming record through the first four games. In fact, they started 0-4 last year, but came on strong in conference play, won the league title and then beat up Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl.
The Owls star on offense is junior quarterback Rusty Smith, last season's Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year and was voted preseason Offensive Player of the Year. As good as Smith and the offense are, the defense may actually be better. The Owls landed five players on the preseason All-SBC First Team, led by senior linebacker Frantz Joseph-the SBC's preseason Defensive Player of the Year.
Our Power Ratings show great line value with the defending Sun Belt champions, as it reveals the wrong team being favored here. It’s about this time in the season, that we look to play ON a team that is being overlooked after a bad start, but has accrued its poor record by playing stellar teams with winning records.
A closer look at the following numbers and handicapping factors also show the visitors having a strong edge here.
We look to Play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, especially the 2'.
Three is the top key number in college football, meaning more games end with a 3-point margin than any other. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait. Such is the case here, as Middle Tennessee State opened at -2’, only to see it go to -3 at most books on Monday. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number.
The Blue Raiders have had a very hard time running the football this season, and that certainly is at least partially a result of a battered offensive line. We also like to play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries. If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top 3 cornerbacks, also figures to struggle. Such is the case here for Middle Tennessee, as they will be without 3 projected starters on the o-line. The Raiders now have four freshmen and three sophomores among its top eight offensive linemen, many of who are learning on the fly. This is not a recipe for success against a veteran, defending champion Florida Atlantic team hosted by coaching legend Howard Schnellenberger.
Middle Tennessee is:
0-6 SU in their last 6 non-Saturday games and 0-4 ATS (-12 ppg) when not getting more than 30 points in non-Saturday contests! Florida Atlantic is 3-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) in last 3 non-Saturday games since 2005.
An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM reveals that Sun Belt Conference teams have been miserable at home under the bright lights of highlighted, non-Saturday games. It states:
Play AGAINST a Sun Belt Conference non-Saturday home team (not an underdog of more than 8 points) with less than 16 days rest.
Just since 2005, these teams are 0-9-1 ATS, failing to cover by nearly 10 ppg on average, and now the Blue Raiders qualify as a PLAY AGAINST team.
Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic is:
4-1 SU (+10 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+13.9 ppg) all-time off a SU & ATS loss vs. a conference opponent, while Middle Tennessee is 0-5 SU (-7 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-14 ppg) in the reverse role when not coming off a non-lined home SU loss.
6-0 SU (+14 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) off allowing 35+ points vs. a sub-.500% opponent.
4-0 SU (+12.5 ppg) 4-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) on the road vs. current Sun Belt Conference teams playing with revenge. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee is 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) in the reverse role when not favored by 14+ points.
5-0 SU (+11.2 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) in their last 5 conference road games
4-0 SU (+10 ppg) & ATS (+16.1 ppg) as an underdog/pick ‘em/or small favorite of less a TD or less vs. first SBC foe of the season.
We also have a few NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS active favoring the Owls. Despite coming off 2 pitiful offensive showings, team playing a non-Saturday game away from home have done well. Specifically, since at least 1980, non-Saturday road/neutral site teams off 2 underdog SU losses scoring less than 10 points in each game are 6-0 ATS, blasting the spread by more than 15 points per game.
Also, off 2 road losses, teams back on the road for a non-Saturday game have been ready to do battle under the conditions described. This NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM states:
Play AGAINST a non-Saturday road team (not a favorite of more than 17 points or underdog of 37+ points) off 2 road SU losses (not both conference games) vs. an opponent not off 3 home games.
Since at least 1980, these teams are 8-0 ATS, beating the spread by better than 10 ppg on average. Again, the underdog Owls qualify as the PLAY ON team which will be happy to do, as we look for them to dominate this game and win by double-digits.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 27 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 16
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