Service Plays Tuesday 9/30/08

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Beat Your Bookie

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->100 GOY NCAA-Florida Atlantic+3

100 MLB Twins
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O.C. Dooley

"1 UNIT" BASEBALL PERCENTAGE TOTAL (Twins at White Sox OVER 9 in a 7:35 eastern start on TBS---------Blackburn versus Danks):
 
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301 Florida Atlantic 2 1/2 (Buy 1/2 Point to 3 if able.)

3-Units (7:00 P.M. CST)

Hey guys, this line opened at Middle Tennessee -3 and pretty much stayed there until earlier this morning, at which time the line dropped to Middle Tennessee -2 1/2. This is a pretty significant move, considering that it takes a substantial amount of money to move the line off of the 3. When the number moved I checked with two different sources to see where the public money was. One source had 68% of the public money on Middle Tennessee St. , while the other had 80% of the public money on Middle Tennessee. This makes Florida Atlantic an obvious Sharp Money Move. My job now is to try and back this play with obvious stats and trends that would help support the play on Florida Atlantic. We know that Florida Atlantic has a coaching edge with the great Howard Schnellenberger calling the shots. Florida Atlantic is also the reigning Sun Belt Conference Champions, and have last years Sun Belt Player of the Year in Rusty Smith running the offense. Florida Atlantic opened the season on the road against powerhouse Texas(L), followed by a win at home against UAB. Then they hit the road once again playing at Michigan St.(L) and Minnesota(L). Middle Tennessee has played 4 games also, getting a solid win at home against a decent Maryland squad, but have losses against Kentucky, as well as conference losses to Troy and Arkansas St. It's hard to compare stats for this game considering that Florida Atlantic has played a much tougher schedule, but one thing worth mentioning is that Middle Tennessee has failed to go over 100 yards rushing against both Troy and Arkansas St., both teams of which are members of the Sun Belt Conference. Of course Middle Tennessee has better looking defensive stats, but has played a much easier schedule. Of importance here is that Schnellenberger is very good when playing inside the conference, going 7-2 against the spread in his last 9 games, while Middle Tennessee St. has struggled to a 0-4 record in their last 4 games against conference opponents. Finally, let's not forget that this is a Prime Time ESPN2 match up in front of a Televised national audience. Middle Tennessee had just over 22,000 fans in their previous home games against Troy and Maryland. After going 0-2 in conference play and 1-3 to start the season, look for about the same number or possibly less for this nationally televised event.

Take Florida Atlantic 2 1/2 for 3-Units. (Buy 1/2 Point to 3 if able.)



Thanks and Good Luck

Slade

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Dr Bob

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Sun Belt Conference
MIDDLE TENN (-2.5) 28 Florida Atl. 21
05:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
I’ll favor Middle Tennessee to win on the basis of fewer projected turnovers, much better special teams, and the home field advantage.
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Marc Lawrence Playbook

MID TENN ST over Fla Atlantic by 6

Both teams have seen great expectations for the ’08 season go miserably awry.FAU has been a particular disappointment: off a bowl-winning 8-5 campaign,the Owls were picked as preseason favorites in this year’s Sun Belt championship race but have struggled to a 1-3 start against some tough competition (routed 52-10 by Texas). An identical 1-3, the Blue Raiders were hoping to erase last year’s 5-7 record and return to postseason play under well-liked coach Rick Stockstill.Guess what? The loser here is in serious jeopardy of fl aming out early and MTSU enters the game carrying the added pressure of an 0-2 start in Sun Belt play. FAU QB Rusty Smith was 2007’s conference Player of the Year and should unload on a Blue Raider secondary that gave up 292 yards and 3 TDs through the air to Arkansas State 10 days ago. And since Middle Tennessee rushes for a miniscule 69 YPG – out of 346 yards of total offense – you KNOW they’ll be launching a few salvos of their own. Howie Longname owns the better personnel but his Owls have been outscored by a disturbing 140-62 margin so far. With the Boys in Blue up against the conference wall and FAU traveling for the 4th time in 5 games, we’ll cast a vote in favor of the Murfreesboro Raiders.
 

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allstarsportspicks anyone?

I read somewhere the guy was 5-2 over the weekend and a pretty good weekend the week before.

Thanks in advance.
 
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Oscarxena Sports

Middle Tennessee State -2 1/2 (3 Unit Play)

Florida Atlantic/Middle Tennessee State Under 52 1/2 (3 Unit Play)

FAU has played the tougher schedule on paper but MTSU has taken on some tough teams also. I think the key point that is not being covered in this game tonight is that MTSU is already 0-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and a loss here tonight will pretty much make them an outside shot candidate to win the conference this year. MTSU's main problem this year has been in running the ball but FAU has not performed particularly well against the run this year. On paper the game appears to be a pretty even but in these conference games these teams really get up for one another and the familiarity with each other usually makes for a competitive lower scoring affair. I think MTSU will win this one tonight with their defense and the game stays Under the posted total.

The Tigers looked good yesterday until an injury to Freddy Garcia forced Leyland to bring in the bullpen and they blew up in losing 8-2 so I had an 0-2 day for a loss of 4 units yesterday! Here is my selection for the Minnesota/Chicago Play-In Game:


Minnesota +1.38 (3 Unit Play)

I was bouncing back and forth on the total in this game and decided just to stay off of that completely and go with the underdog Twins in this spot. Nick Blackburn will get the start here today for the Twins and his numbers are downright ugly in this last three starts but he just faced the White Sox last week and held them to two earned runs in five tough innings. He pitched five times against the White Sox so far this year and he is 2-2 in those starts with a 5.28 ERA which also includes a relief appearance. He has struggled at Comiskey Park though going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA but I just have a feeling he will be able to give the Twins a good start today. The White Sox are countering with John Danks who was rocked in his last start and will be making his first career start on three days rest. Danks has struggled badly at home against the Twins going 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in four starts. This series all year has been dominated by the home team and both teams have hit the other teams pitcher fairly well so I have to go with the more rested pitcher and in my opinion the better bullpen and I think the Twins will leave Chicago with the AL Central Title!
 
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Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report -Tuesday


TUESDAY 09/30/2008

7:00 PM EDT

5 STAR SELECTION (rated 1-6 Units)

Florida Atlantic +3 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

In a nationally televised Sun Belt Conference game on Tuesday, the Blue Raiders will be hosting the Owls with both teams looking to shake off recent losses. Middle Tennessee is 0-2 in conference play after losing to Troy in the season opener and Arkansas State last weekend, while Florida Atlantic is also looking for their first SBC win after completing a four-game stretch of out-of-conference games. The Owls have not been too impressive thus far, although they've faced some difficult competition against Texas, Michigan State, and Minnesota, teams that have a combined record of 12-2 SU!

We’ve seen this before with Florida Atlantic, as they the defending conference champs and were selected by the conference's coaches to repeat as champions. Just like last year, they don't possess an overwhelming record through the first four games. In fact, they started 0-4 last year, but came on strong in conference play, won the league title and then beat up Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl.

The Owls star on offense is junior quarterback Rusty Smith, last season's Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year and was voted preseason Offensive Player of the Year. As good as Smith and the offense are, the defense may actually be better. The Owls landed five players on the preseason All-SBC First Team, led by senior linebacker Frantz Joseph-the SBC's preseason Defensive Player of the Year.

Our Power Ratings show great line value with the defending Sun Belt champions, as it reveals the wrong team being favored here. It’s about this time in the season, that we look to play ON a team that is being overlooked after a bad start, but has accrued its poor record by playing stellar teams with winning records.

A closer look at the following numbers and handicapping factors also show the visitors having a strong edge here.

We look to Play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, especially the 2'.

Three is the top key number in college football, meaning more games end with a 3-point margin than any other. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait. Such is the case here, as Middle Tennessee State opened at -2’, only to see it go to -3 at most books on Monday. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number.

The Blue Raiders have had a very hard time running the football this season, and that certainly is at least partially a result of a battered offensive line. We also like to play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries. If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top 3 cornerbacks, also figures to struggle. Such is the case here for Middle Tennessee, as they will be without 3 projected starters on the o-line. The Raiders now have four freshmen and three sophomores among its top eight offensive linemen, many of who are learning on the fly. This is not a recipe for success against a veteran, defending champion Florida Atlantic team hosted by coaching legend Howard Schnellenberger.

Middle Tennessee is:

0-6 SU in their last 6 non-Saturday games and 0-4 ATS (-12 ppg) when not getting more than 30 points in non-Saturday contests! Florida Atlantic is 3-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) in last 3 non-Saturday games since 2005.

An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM reveals that Sun Belt Conference teams have been miserable at home under the bright lights of highlighted, non-Saturday games. It states:

Play AGAINST a Sun Belt Conference non-Saturday home team (not an underdog of more than 8 points) with less than 16 days rest.

Just since 2005, these teams are 0-9-1 ATS, failing to cover by nearly 10 ppg on average, and now the Blue Raiders qualify as a PLAY AGAINST team.

Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic is:

4-1 SU (+10 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+13.9 ppg) all-time off a SU & ATS loss vs. a conference opponent, while Middle Tennessee is 0-5 SU (-7 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-14 ppg) in the reverse role when not coming off a non-lined home SU loss.

6-0 SU (+14 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) off allowing 35+ points vs. a sub-.500% opponent.

4-0 SU (+12.5 ppg) 4-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) on the road vs. current Sun Belt Conference teams playing with revenge. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee is 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) in the reverse role when not favored by 14+ points.

5-0 SU (+11.2 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) in their last 5 conference road games

4-0 SU (+10 ppg) & ATS (+16.1 ppg) as an underdog/pick ‘em/or small favorite of less a TD or less vs. first SBC foe of the season.

We also have a few NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS active favoring the Owls. Despite coming off 2 pitiful offensive showings, team playing a non-Saturday game away from home have done well. Specifically, since at least 1980, non-Saturday road/neutral site teams off 2 underdog SU losses scoring less than 10 points in each game are 6-0 ATS, blasting the spread by more than 15 points per game.

Also, off 2 road losses, teams back on the road for a non-Saturday game have been ready to do battle under the conditions described. This NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM states:


Play AGAINST a non-Saturday road team (not a favorite of more than 17 points or underdog of 37+ points) off 2 road SU losses (not both conference games) vs. an opponent not off 3 home games.


Since at least 1980, these teams are 8-0 ATS, beating the spread by better than 10 ppg on average. Again, the underdog Owls qualify as the PLAY ON team which will be happy to do, as we look for them to dominate this game and win by double-digits.


PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 27 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 16
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From a friend:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Wizard of Odds</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2008
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</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>9/30/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>SURE THING BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Danks -143 7:35 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
938 CWS (-143) Bodog vs 937 MIN
Analysis:
*** MLB 3* BEST BET of the DAY *** (Danks vs Blackburn)

Tonight, we will be asked to lay less than -150, and that is just fine by me...We will go ahead and make this our MLB 3* BEST BET..
 

"Silly Bulldogs Football is for Rebels"
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Eddie Roman

Here you go boys!

Analyst: Eddie Roman
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=420 background=/pix/g_bkg_title_blue.gif border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=center width=420 height=30>7500 Unit College Football Two TD Burial</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=420 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=420>
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]7500 Unit College Football Two TD Burial[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]5000 Unit - Florida Atlantic Owls +3 @ Middle Tennessee State[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]2500 Unit - Florida Atlantic Owls +120 Money Line[/FONT]

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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