SPORTS ADVISORS
Minnesota (88-74) at Chicago White Sox (88-74)
Having staved off elimination with a do-or-die victory over the Tigers on Monday, the White Sox now welcome the Twins to U.S. Cellular Field for a one-game playoff to decide the American League Central Division champion. John Danks (11-9, 3.47 ERA) is slated to take the ball for Chicago, while Minnesota will go with rookie Nick Blackburn (11-10, 4.14).
Forced to play a makeup game against Detroit on Monday, Chicago trailed 2-1 in the sixth inning when rookie Alexei Ramirez crushed a grand slam to lead the Sox to an 8-2 victory and set up this winner-take-all contest. Chicago has followed up a five-game losing skid – including a three-game sweep at Minnesota last week – with consecutive wins, but Ozzie Guillen’s club is just 5-9 in its last 14 games.
After saving their season with the three-game sweep of the White Sox last week, the Twins lost two straight home games to the Royals before closing the regular season with Sunday’s 6-0 win over Kansas City. Although Ron Gardenhire’s squad has won five of its last seven overall, it went just 4-9 on the road in September.
The home team dominated this rivalry in 2008, going 15-3 in the 18 meetings. The White Sox won seven of the nine clashes in the Windy City, including the last five in a row. The seven wins by Chicago at home came by a combined score of 60-22.
Both teams had identical records this year at home (53-28) and on the road (35-46), and Chicago has won 41 of its last 59 at the Cell.
Danks’ most recent start came on Friday at home against Cleveland, and he got crushed for seven runs (all earned) on seven hits (two home runs) in just four innings of an 11-8 loss. The southpaw, who led the White Sox in ERA this year, is just 2-5 in his last nine starts, but he’s given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 trips to the hill since the beginning of August.
Danks is only 4-6 at home despite a 3.96 ERA. However, he’s 2-3 with a beefy 6.88 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins, including 1-1 with a 7.91 ERA in four starts this season, with Chicago splitting those four games.
Blackburn, who led the Twins in innings pitched this season, shut down the White Sox in his most recent outing six days ago, giving up two runs on eight hits and two walks in five innings of a 3-2 victory. However, Minnesota is just 2-7 in the right-hander’s last nine trips to the mound, including five straight losses on the road, with Blackburn posting 7.67 ERA in those five road defeats.
For the season, Blackburn is 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA in 18 road starts – 13 of which the Twins have lost – compared with 8-3 with a 2.95 ERA in 14 outings in Minnesota. He’s also 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against the White Sox, with all five starts coming this season. That includes three games at U.S. Cellular, with Blackburn going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and the Twins losing all three games by the combined score of 24-11.
The over is 7-2 in the nine head-to-head battles between these rivals in Chicago, and seven of those contests featured double-digit run totals. Also, for Minnesota, the over is on streaks of 17-8-1 overall, 35-17-2 on the road, 9-0-2 on Tuesdays, 4-0-1 following an off day, 6-2 against a lefty starter and 3-0 when Blackburn pitches in Chicago. Finally, the White Sox are on over streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-2 at home and 4-1 when Danks faces the Twins.
The winner of this game heads to Tampa Bay for a first-round, best-of-5 playoff series against the Rays, which begins Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Florida Atlantic (1-3, 1-2 ATS) at Middle Tennessee State (1-3, 2-2 ATS)
Florida Atlantic hits the road for the fourth time this season when it visits Middle Tennessee State as the Sun Belt Conference takes center stage in a nationally televised midweek contest.
Both teams are coming off blowout road losses on Sept. 20, with Florida Atlantic getting hammered 37-3 at Minnesota as a six-point underdog and the Blue Raiders losing their conference opener 31-14 at Arkansas State as a 6½-point pup.
The Owls, who are the defending Sun Belt champs, have scored a total of 13 points in their three losses (vs. Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota), with their lone win being a 49-34 home rout of UAB. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee’s lone victory was a 24-14 upset of Maryland as a 13-point road ‘dog, but it scored only 17, 14 and 14 points in its three losses.
Florida Atlantic rode its defense to a 27-14 win over Middle Tennessee last year, easily covering as a 2½-point home favorite. The Owls held the Blue Raiders to 217 total yards, including just 18 net rushing yards, while forcing four turnovers in the victory. These teams have met five times since 2003, with FAU holding a 3-2 edge (2-2 ATS in lined games). The chalk has cashed in the last three head-to-head meetings.
For the season, the Owls are averaging 15.5 points and 337.8 total yards per game (104 rushing ypg), while yielding per-game averages of 35 points and 441.2 yards (211 rushing ypg). As for Middle Tennessee, it is putting up 17.2 points and 346 yards per outing (only 68.5 rushing ypg) and surrendering 24 points and 363.2 yards (140 rushing ypg).
The Blue Raiders are just 15-88 SU in Sun Belt Conference home games, while the Owls have won seven of their eight road games since joining the Sun Belt two years ago.
Florida Atlantic is on ATS hot streaks of 5-2 overall, 7-2 in conference, 7-3 against losing teams and 4-1 on artificial turf, but the Owls have failed to cover in five of their last six following a bye.
Including the blowout loss at Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee has failed to cover in four straight Sun Belt Conference contests, but the Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine on fake turf and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a bye.
The Owls sport nothing but “over” trends, including 9-3 overall, 5-0 in conference, 4-0 following a bye and 12-2 after a spread-cover. Conversely, Middle Tennessee is on under runs of 6-0 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-0 in conference, 4-1 in September, 6-1 on turf and 18-6 after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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