VegasButcher - San Francisco Giants -118
There hasn’t been many better pitchers than Jake Peavy since his move to the National League. He has a 2.29 ERA with the Giants and in the last 30-days ranks as my 10th best starter. Of course Collmenter has been excellent lately also. So why do the Giants have the edge here? Both pitchers have faced these lineups in their last starts so both lineups might have a slight advantage going up against them once again here. Let’s take a look at the advanced stats to see if we can shed some light on this matchup. In Collmenter’s last two starts against the Giants he has a 6.5 and 4.2 SIERA with 7 K’s through 11 innings and 6 BB’s issued. Sure he didn’t allow many actual runs (1 ER) but the advanced metrics indicate that he wasn’t very good either in those outings. By comparison, Peavy had a 1.4 SIERA with 8 K in 5.2 innings against the DBacks in his last outing. Clearly, Peavy seems to have had a much more dominant outing and I like his chances of a repeat performance today. The second factor to consider are the offensive strengths of each of these teams. On the season Giants rank 7th with a wRC+ of 103 while DBacks are 28th with an 84 wRC+ mark. That’s a net variance of +19% in offensive ability for the Giants. But take a look at the last 30-days:
Giants: wRC+ of 133 (#1 rank); wOBA of 0.367 (#1); ISO of 0.156 (#8)
DBacks: wrC+ of 70 (#30 rank); wOBA of 0.273 (#30); ISO of 0.104 (#27)
Giants have a net variance of +63% offensively in the last 30-days of the season, which is just a huge differential. If both Peavy and Collmenter pitch at the level as their advanced metrics have indicated in most recent starts against these particular lineups, and with Giants’ huge advantage on the offensive end, this play tonight is a no-brainer.
Chicago White Sox +135 (1st 5 Innings ONLY)
I’ve discussed Hendriks in detail last time I faded him and he didn’t disappoint while allowing 4 hits, 2 BB’s, and 3 runs in 2.1 innings of work against the Red Sox. Now he’ll take the “OTHER” Sox team, which is better offensively. Bassitt is a rookie whose best pitch is his ‘slider’, a pitch that KC ranks bottom-10 against. He’s pitched fewer than 50 innings this year (had a broken hand) so should be very fresh tonight, and of course will be facing this mediocre KC lineup for the first time in his career. I don’t trust Chicago’s horrid BP so will play this one for the first 5 only.
There hasn’t been many better pitchers than Jake Peavy since his move to the National League. He has a 2.29 ERA with the Giants and in the last 30-days ranks as my 10th best starter. Of course Collmenter has been excellent lately also. So why do the Giants have the edge here? Both pitchers have faced these lineups in their last starts so both lineups might have a slight advantage going up against them once again here. Let’s take a look at the advanced stats to see if we can shed some light on this matchup. In Collmenter’s last two starts against the Giants he has a 6.5 and 4.2 SIERA with 7 K’s through 11 innings and 6 BB’s issued. Sure he didn’t allow many actual runs (1 ER) but the advanced metrics indicate that he wasn’t very good either in those outings. By comparison, Peavy had a 1.4 SIERA with 8 K in 5.2 innings against the DBacks in his last outing. Clearly, Peavy seems to have had a much more dominant outing and I like his chances of a repeat performance today. The second factor to consider are the offensive strengths of each of these teams. On the season Giants rank 7th with a wRC+ of 103 while DBacks are 28th with an 84 wRC+ mark. That’s a net variance of +19% in offensive ability for the Giants. But take a look at the last 30-days:
Giants: wRC+ of 133 (#1 rank); wOBA of 0.367 (#1); ISO of 0.156 (#8)
DBacks: wrC+ of 70 (#30 rank); wOBA of 0.273 (#30); ISO of 0.104 (#27)
Giants have a net variance of +63% offensively in the last 30-days of the season, which is just a huge differential. If both Peavy and Collmenter pitch at the level as their advanced metrics have indicated in most recent starts against these particular lineups, and with Giants’ huge advantage on the offensive end, this play tonight is a no-brainer.
Chicago White Sox +135 (1st 5 Innings ONLY)
I’ve discussed Hendriks in detail last time I faded him and he didn’t disappoint while allowing 4 hits, 2 BB’s, and 3 runs in 2.1 innings of work against the Red Sox. Now he’ll take the “OTHER” Sox team, which is better offensively. Bassitt is a rookie whose best pitch is his ‘slider’, a pitch that KC ranks bottom-10 against. He’s pitched fewer than 50 innings this year (had a broken hand) so should be very fresh tonight, and of course will be facing this mediocre KC lineup for the first time in his career. I don’t trust Chicago’s horrid BP so will play this one for the first 5 only.
