Nite Owl Sports
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles - Tuesday August 19, 2008 7:05 pm
Pick: 5 units MONEYLINE: Boston Red Sox -167
At this time of the MLB season we see an increasing number of pitching match-ups like this, where one SP (starting pitcher ) just seems to be in a groove and getting stronger,while the other team's SP is showing signs of wearing down during the latter part of a long season. Such is the case tonite in this match-up of Boston SP Dice K Matsuzaka (14-2, 2.74 ERA) and his Baltimore opponent Daniel Cabrera (8-7 with a 4.8 ERA but erratic in his recent starts and bad in most of them, such as coughing up 7 runs in just 5 IP in recent home starts/losses vs Detroit and Toronto).
Unlike his Boston team, which has struggled when playing away from the "friendly confines" of Fenway Park for much of the season (21-32 through July 20) but now seems to be getting things turned around on the road (8-3 since then), Matsuzaka has been impressive away from Fenway all season, going 6-0 with a 2.04 ERA in nine road starts TY, and 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his four starts away from Boston since coming off the disabled list on June 21 with a right rotator cuff strain. In fact, ever since that forgettable "shaking off the cobwebs" poor home day start vs St Louis Cards on June 21, Dice K has been almost unhittable, having gone on to pitch 8 great games out of next 9 (with only the high flying Angels spoiling his streak, plating 6 runs in an "off night" for Dice K at Fenway), with 4 of those 8 great starts being shut out performances, two yielding just one run, and the "worst" two outings being two (yielded) run performances. In addition, Matsuzaka has been "lights out" at night, posting a 9-1 record after dark with a 2.5 ERA (and if you take away that aforementioned off night vs Angels, he is 9-0 at night with an ERA under 2).
Matsuzaka has also been one of the best pitchers in the majors this month, posting a 1.29 ERA in victorious his three August starts, and is already just one victory away from matching his win total from a year ago. On Thursday, the right-hander gave up six hits and five walks with five strikeouts in seven innings of a 10-0 win over Texas. In his only start against the Orioles this season on July 13, Matsuzaka allowed four hits and five walks with seven strikeouts in six shutout innings of a 2-1 victory. Looking at his past history pitching at Camden Yards, he had two dissimilar outings in Baltimore last season. On Aug. 10, 2007, Matsuzaka allowed one run and four hits in seven innings of a game Boston would eventually lose, and on Sept. 8, he was tagged for eight runs and six hits in just 2.2 innings of an 11-5 loss.
The Orioles are a bit hard to figure out lately, as they managed only five hits in last night's loss to Boston after pounding out a season-high 22 in Sunday's 16-8 win over Detroit, and coming off of two very high scoring series at Cleve and Detroit in which they scored bunches of runs. And while Os have had a pretty good overall home record TY, especially at night, they have lost 7 of their last ten home games. In addition, Boston seems to have their "number" TY, having won 8 of the 11 games between them. And it does not help Balt?s cause that they are facing a hard throwing righty tonite after last night facing Lester, a hard throwing lefty, as most MLB teams perform less well on offense in these "transition games" (facing a LHP after a RHP, or vice versa).
Now let?s look at the numbers for Balt SP Cabrera, and how he has done against Red Sox L3Y. While he has decent #s TY at home (4-1 but with a high 5.3 ERA) and at night (7-3 with a 4.35), and he is 2-2 (1-1 at home) with an ERA of 4.65 in four starts TY vs Sox, over last three (prior) years he has a very poor record vs Boston (1-8 with 6.65 ERA in all starts and 1-5 at home with a 5.85). So based on his August starts and overall record vs Boston, we are not expecting a whole lot from Cabrera tonite.
Yet another factor in Boston?s favor is that game two has been their best game of a series TY, with a 26-15 record, including 15-5 after a win in game one.
So as detailed above, we have lots of "support" for a pick on Boston tonite, but what about that high price tag of nearly -170 that often accompanies teams like Boston who have lots of "public betting support?" What do we do about that? Here?s where our unique approach to MLB games, which we call our "betting attack strategy," comes into play, to get maximum value out of these types of games and give our subscribers different alternatives for betting the same team, to either get more action with "non-mainstream bets" at much better prices or spread the exposure of backing that team by betting them in different ways. For example, our betting attack strategy for this game is as follows (note that in order to fully utilize our typical MLB betting attack strategy, you will need to have access to 5 inning run lines and individual team totals lines):
3 units with Boston on full game money line at -167 (limit full game pick to 3 units if you do the other bets suggested below, even though our official pick is for 5 units)
2 units with Boston on five inning (-1/2 run) "run line"at much "friendlier" odds of -120
2 units with Boston over 5 runs (-120 odds) on their individual team totals line
2 units with Balt under 4 runs (-115 odds) on their individual team totals line
2 units with Boston on full game (-1.5 runs) run line at low price of -110 or 115We realize that?s a lot of units (11to be exact), but as stated above, we are giving you different alternatives for betting the same team, to either get maximum value from this game with more action on the above "non-mainstream bets" at much better prices, or spread the exposure of backing the Red Sox by betting them in 5 different ways. You don?t have to bet all of these recommendations, or bet them for the full 11 units as we suggest
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Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles - Tuesday August 19, 2008 7:05 pm
Pick: 5 units MONEYLINE: Boston Red Sox -167
At this time of the MLB season we see an increasing number of pitching match-ups like this, where one SP (starting pitcher ) just seems to be in a groove and getting stronger,while the other team's SP is showing signs of wearing down during the latter part of a long season. Such is the case tonite in this match-up of Boston SP Dice K Matsuzaka (14-2, 2.74 ERA) and his Baltimore opponent Daniel Cabrera (8-7 with a 4.8 ERA but erratic in his recent starts and bad in most of them, such as coughing up 7 runs in just 5 IP in recent home starts/losses vs Detroit and Toronto).
Unlike his Boston team, which has struggled when playing away from the "friendly confines" of Fenway Park for much of the season (21-32 through July 20) but now seems to be getting things turned around on the road (8-3 since then), Matsuzaka has been impressive away from Fenway all season, going 6-0 with a 2.04 ERA in nine road starts TY, and 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his four starts away from Boston since coming off the disabled list on June 21 with a right rotator cuff strain. In fact, ever since that forgettable "shaking off the cobwebs" poor home day start vs St Louis Cards on June 21, Dice K has been almost unhittable, having gone on to pitch 8 great games out of next 9 (with only the high flying Angels spoiling his streak, plating 6 runs in an "off night" for Dice K at Fenway), with 4 of those 8 great starts being shut out performances, two yielding just one run, and the "worst" two outings being two (yielded) run performances. In addition, Matsuzaka has been "lights out" at night, posting a 9-1 record after dark with a 2.5 ERA (and if you take away that aforementioned off night vs Angels, he is 9-0 at night with an ERA under 2).
Matsuzaka has also been one of the best pitchers in the majors this month, posting a 1.29 ERA in victorious his three August starts, and is already just one victory away from matching his win total from a year ago. On Thursday, the right-hander gave up six hits and five walks with five strikeouts in seven innings of a 10-0 win over Texas. In his only start against the Orioles this season on July 13, Matsuzaka allowed four hits and five walks with seven strikeouts in six shutout innings of a 2-1 victory. Looking at his past history pitching at Camden Yards, he had two dissimilar outings in Baltimore last season. On Aug. 10, 2007, Matsuzaka allowed one run and four hits in seven innings of a game Boston would eventually lose, and on Sept. 8, he was tagged for eight runs and six hits in just 2.2 innings of an 11-5 loss.
The Orioles are a bit hard to figure out lately, as they managed only five hits in last night's loss to Boston after pounding out a season-high 22 in Sunday's 16-8 win over Detroit, and coming off of two very high scoring series at Cleve and Detroit in which they scored bunches of runs. And while Os have had a pretty good overall home record TY, especially at night, they have lost 7 of their last ten home games. In addition, Boston seems to have their "number" TY, having won 8 of the 11 games between them. And it does not help Balt?s cause that they are facing a hard throwing righty tonite after last night facing Lester, a hard throwing lefty, as most MLB teams perform less well on offense in these "transition games" (facing a LHP after a RHP, or vice versa).
Now let?s look at the numbers for Balt SP Cabrera, and how he has done against Red Sox L3Y. While he has decent #s TY at home (4-1 but with a high 5.3 ERA) and at night (7-3 with a 4.35), and he is 2-2 (1-1 at home) with an ERA of 4.65 in four starts TY vs Sox, over last three (prior) years he has a very poor record vs Boston (1-8 with 6.65 ERA in all starts and 1-5 at home with a 5.85). So based on his August starts and overall record vs Boston, we are not expecting a whole lot from Cabrera tonite.
Yet another factor in Boston?s favor is that game two has been their best game of a series TY, with a 26-15 record, including 15-5 after a win in game one.
So as detailed above, we have lots of "support" for a pick on Boston tonite, but what about that high price tag of nearly -170 that often accompanies teams like Boston who have lots of "public betting support?" What do we do about that? Here?s where our unique approach to MLB games, which we call our "betting attack strategy," comes into play, to get maximum value out of these types of games and give our subscribers different alternatives for betting the same team, to either get more action with "non-mainstream bets" at much better prices or spread the exposure of backing that team by betting them in different ways. For example, our betting attack strategy for this game is as follows (note that in order to fully utilize our typical MLB betting attack strategy, you will need to have access to 5 inning run lines and individual team totals lines):
3 units with Boston on full game money line at -167 (limit full game pick to 3 units if you do the other bets suggested below, even though our official pick is for 5 units)
2 units with Boston on five inning (-1/2 run) "run line"at much "friendlier" odds of -120
2 units with Boston over 5 runs (-120 odds) on their individual team totals line
2 units with Balt under 4 runs (-115 odds) on their individual team totals line
2 units with Boston on full game (-1.5 runs) run line at low price of -110 or 115We realize that?s a lot of units (11to be exact), but as stated above, we are giving you different alternatives for betting the same team, to either get maximum value from this game with more action on the above "non-mainstream bets" at much better prices, or spread the exposure of backing the Red Sox by betting them in 5 different ways. You don?t have to bet all of these recommendations, or bet them for the full 11 units as we suggest
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