Larry Ness
Game: St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Aug 10 2010 7:10PM
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
Reason: My 10* NL Central Game of the Month is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.
I played the Cards yesterday as a Bonus Play and won 7-3 behind Carpenter's 9th straight win over the Reds. The victory moved the Cards to within one game of the Reds in the NL Central and as I mentioned yesterday, these teams have alternated leading this division 17 times since May 15. St Louis set up its rotation perfectly for this series, with Carpenter leading off, Garcia pitching tonight and Wainwright pitching in tomorrow's final game. With last night's win, the Cards are 46-24 with their "Big Three" on the mound but 16-25 with anyone else starting. If St Louis can't find at least one more consistent starter, it may cost them come late September. Getting back to tonight's game, it's Jamie Garcia vs (9-5, 2.53 ERA) vs Johnny Cueto (11-2, 3.24 ERA). Both young pitchers have pitched very well yet both have not won as many games as they could have (should have?), as the Cards are 2-5 in Garcia's seven no decisions and the Reds 3-6 in Cueto's nine no decisions. Garcia owns a solid 3.12 road ERA in 11 starts this season but he's allowed 16 hits and 11 runs (seven earned) in his last two outings (one home / one away) over 11 innings, giving him a 5.73 ERA. Meanwhile, Cueto owns a 1.55 ERA over his last eight starts (he's 5-0 and the team 5-3), is 5-0 with a 3.58 ERA in his last eight home starts (team is 6-2) plus 6-0 with a 2.47 ERA in his 10 starts this season vs division opponents (team is 7-3). The clincher comes in that the Cards are a woeful 4-14 as a road underdog this season, a 78% "go-against" situation.